Thought Experiment: How Would You Defend Against a US Invasion?

jparker77

Banned
Just a thought experiment I was curious to see if anyone was interested in.

It’s the early 2000s, and you are the autocratic leader of Wesnar, a mid sized, coastal Middle Eastern nation. Wesnar’s interior is dominated by extensive mountain ranges while much of the time economic activity and major cities are along the coast; Wesnar also produces a moderate amount of oil. Wesnar was friendly to the eastern bloc during the Cold War and received a decent amount of military aid from them during the conflict. Wesnar has a long history of smuggling both from land and naval routes. It also supplied anti Western terrorist groups, meaning relations with the US were usually cool at best.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks the US has decided Wesnar is a state sponsor of terror and has decided to invade and “liberate” the country.

The people of Wesnar are, outside of the elites, not extremely enthusiastic about autocratic rule, but they are deeply nationalistic due to a long war for independence against the former European colonial and therefore are willing to fight against a foreign invasion.

Wesnar’s army is equipped with AK-74s and the like for small arms. The country possesses roughly 200 T-55s and 120 T-72 tanks, as well as some BTRs and BMPs. The army is fairly well trained, and there are several elite “Republican Guard” type units.

The navy has two dozen or so missile boats, a mix of Osas and Tarantuls, plus gunboats got anti-smuggler patrols. It also has four Kilo class submarines.

The air force has roughly fifty MiG-21s and another fifty MiG-29s, plus roughly 30 Su-24 ground attack aircraft. It also possesses numerous helicopters, including Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters.

Given all that information, how would you go about defending Wesnar?
 
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks the US has decided Wesnar is a state sponsor of terror and has decided to invade and “liberate” the country.
I would start by not providing a haven for terrorists. If we're talking about Iraq, there's still the option of not starting the first Gulf War, not gassing the Kurds, and not committing genocide against the Shia.

Also if this hypothetical country was so friendly to the west during the Cold War, why is the military so dependent on Soviet equipment?
 
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jparker77

Banned
I would start by not providing a haven for terrorists. If we're talking about Iraq, there's still the option of not starting the first Gulf War, not gassing the Kurds, and not committing genocide against the Shia.

Also if this hypothetical country was so friendly to the west during the Cold War, why is the military so dependent on Soviet equipment?

I was kinda think of a hybrid mix between Iran, Yemen and particularly Libya to inspire this country, both in terms of sponsoring terrorism leading to western hostility and in the military equipment they used.
 
Let them land, then get into knife-fighting range, Mogadishio style, preferably in cities. US troops get any range between you and them, sheer fire support of all kinds will wipe you out. You'll still loose, but you'll hurt them badly.
 
Not really enough information. How big is the country in terms of size, and population? Has the regime destroyed civil society, so that there's no possible alternative leadership that the Americans can work with? Are there violent divisions in the country along sectarian lines? Was the regimes power base a minority, or majority group? Are the groups in the mountains loyal to the regime? Can the regime count on support from other anti-Western forces in the region, or a major power that will reflexively want to kill Americans? Is this country of any real strategic valve to the Americans, or the West? You did say they only had a moderate amount of oil production. There are just so many X factors to consider before any workable strategy can be devised.
 

tonycat77

Banned
Put AT troops on civilian occupied buildings, use propaganda via telegram and youtube, Small civilian drones for recon, fight in small squad sized groups that can easily take cover from air power.
Fight on urban terrain at all costs, bury t-72s in shop windows, use them as static positions, again, inside cities and near civilians to avoid being bombed.
Wait until the smiling faces of dead college age boys show up on CNN day after day with families receiving caskets on return flights, then paste bloodied faces of civilians being drone and spread to friendly media outlets.
Air force and navy fight a guerrila war, hit and run attacks, no dogfights, very fast and very low fighters using GCI and then IR to guide AA missiles.
Kilos would be a massive headache for the US navy, similar to the argentine sub threat in the falklands.
Let them sit on the ocean floor while a battlegroup passes above, then fire all torpedos at the biggest accoustic target and hope for the best.

Fallujah and Mariupol have proven those tactics can work, even if you can only delay the enemy for some time.
 
Given all that information, how would you go about defending Wesnar?
We need far more information?

How big are you population wise? What is your foot infantry size, considering the known "deeply nationalistic due to a long war for independence against the former European colonial and therefore are willing to fight against a foreign invasion" thats by far your strongest card to play publicly if you have 10s of millions of population it will make even US think very hard...?
 
The only winning move is not to play- surrender immediately and flee with a comfortable amount of stolen money to an early retirement in Moscow.
While destroying your country and people just to give the Americans a bloody nose sounds fun, winning is not something that you really want for your country.
Just ask the afghans how fun it was to out last the west..
 
Have I committed any major crimes in this scenario? If not I preempt all of this by getting in contact with the Americans and asking for assistance purging terrorists from the country, and then assistance setting up a more democratic government. I then do my level best to follow through and retire.

If I have, take as much money as I can and skip the country to somewhere unlikely to extradite me. Leave behind orders for the military to stand down and cooperate when the Americans invade. No reason to get a bunch of people killed who aren’t going to stand a chance.

Fighting is suicide, and will do nothing but make me a bigger and more important target.

Honestly though I’d hope I wouldn’t be stupid enough to be a state sponser of terrorism in the first place frankly. That’s just asking for trouble.
 
Wrap up all you stockpile of handguns and sell to hem on the US black market. Even in 2002, there are enough idiots down there that will do all the shooting for you, and pay you for the gun..

Plus, in 2002, you will still be welcome in every ex-soviet success state, even in 2002 Russia and the 2002 Ukraine as long as you send ahead the money you made from selling the arms.
 
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Have I committed any major crimes in this scenario? If not I preempt all of this by getting in contact with the Americans and asking for assistance purging terrorists from the country, and then assistance setting up a more democratic government. I then do my level best to follow through and retire....
In the early 2000's? No need to do more than lip-service to the ideals of democracy. As long as you support their war on terror, the 2002 US is/was perfectly willing to look the other way. Especially if you invite certain US companies to develop your oil fields as well
 
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Have generals meet secretly in an important cultural site so the US can't bomb it even if it finds out where they are under the Geneva Convention. Send orders by paper so the US can't read them in advance.

Have the armed forces fight like the IRA did in 1917-1922. Kill soldiers, officers, spies, any snitches, and harass the USA until it gives up and goes home. Have the subs torpedo US ships if they can get away with it. Send assassins under false passports to the US to kill Congressmen, Senators, generals if they can.
 
Option 1 -
If I am guilty of these crimes(assuming it was really me who did it, not just being self inserted into the guy) I would just turn myself in to the UN under the conditions I'm judged by a neutral party and NOT the United States
Likely would do that by showing up at the french embassy, since they actively opposed joining US in Iraq, so long I have not financed terrorism there as well
During the trial I would give a passionate speech about why I did it, how my country was a victim of imperialism before and how the US was harming it, of course none of it would justify the terrorist bs but if I get enough of the public compelled it could prevent the US from trying to invade it anyway
I would likely still be executed for crimes against humanity, but I could still take advantage of that and use my dying wish to ask for my country to be put under the protection of the UN and be helped by countries who dont have the active interest of exploiting the hell out of it

Option 2 -
If I am NOT guilty of any of the accusations I wouldnt be going down without a fight
No not war, a diplomatic one
First I would request intel on every biological weapon we do have and that the US *thinks* we have
Once I know that, I'd pick the deadliest one(fictional or not) that has a vaccine
Would I use it? Hell no
But I would still buy massive amounts of the vaccine in the black market and try to produce some domestically, saying I'm gonna vaccinate my whole population before America can finish preparations for a invasion
This would, of course, be utterly bullshit as there's no way we could get the whole population vaccinated in that timespan
However I would still be getting *some* people vaccinated and make it seem like Im really devoted to that plan
This would be a massive redflag for the invaders, as it means I'd be preparing to use virus weapons in my entire territory to face the invasion force
This is a bad thing, as it means almost every single trooper would be unprepared to deal with the biohazard, meaning almost every single american sent to my country would die, that those who miraculously survived would never be allowed to return and that any who return anyway would cause a massive amount of deaths in the mainland United States
Essencially an apocalyptical scenario and even nuking me wouldnt be enough as it would only take one pacient zero to cause problems
Also it would be a bluff, there's no way I would go through with commiting a genocide against millions if not billions of people to save my skin, and it would be stupid because if the US did invade anyway they'd want to nuke the hell out of me for doing that
But its a pretty darn strong bluff, so its more likely America would want to reestabilish dialogue rather than call it out
But if they did call out my bluff and I found out they're still prepping to invade me, I would "accidentaly" leak the info on the whole thing so that the western public only sees me as a "reasonable powerhungry maniac" trying to scare a much more powerful country back into peacetalks while the american government would be seen as a bunch of insane monsters willing to risk a global pandemic and the anihilation of their own people just to destroy some middle eastern country to spite it's leader
If even that did not did dissuade the american public and put the United Nations against the United States's government, if the West was that bloodlusted against me it'd be time for Plan B
Plan B would be, simply put, call America's own bluff
First I'd tell the global media that since the US wants to "liberate" my country so badly I'll make the job easier for them by sending my whole population there to enjoy the so-called American Dream
Of course I wouldnt be really doing that, that'd be ethnic cleansing my own country and I wouldnt even have the means to do that, rather I'd simply pretend I'm following through with it by shipping the citizens from my country who live in the worst conditions
If the US truly is a liberator, or at least value it's public image and wants to pretend they are liberating my people, they'd have to settle these people well and actually give them something to do under acceptable conditions for the international community
This is important, it means they'd grow a "american-wesnerian" community in their own soil much like the cubans in Miami, and once the war is over many of these people would want to return to their motherland and help it recover, becoming a socioeconomic upper class capable of guiding their country towards modernization
Of course, there would be no war if the american right protests the issue of more immigramts so badly that they have to put a halt to it
However if even a refuge crisis of epic proportions do not stop them from doing it, I would follow the second step of my plan to call out their bluff which I lovely call "Winter Afeganistan"
Simply put, I'd take the smallest most unnoticeable jetboat available that I can fill with supplies, fuel and white winter clothes...and move to Antarctica
Yeah I'd Bin Laden my way through the South Pole and if the americans want to badly to kill a dictator thats not even in charge anymore of the country they claim to want to liberate they'd have to break some dozens of treaties to invade international territory and send a army to a frozen rock where days & nights last months, only to try to find a white dot in the white desert while starving & freezing to death

Now

In case I successfully managed to stop the americans from lovingly bombing the heck out of country without sheding any blood, what would I do?
Stay dictator? Estabilish a democracy?
Well, actually neither
First yes I would estabilish what we call "democratic" institutions, yes, parliament senate and all of that
But it wouldnt be a democracy, because as we seen time and time again every time one is pushed down the throat of a country who's not ready it gets couped, just look at the arab spring
So instead first I would give the seats of these "democratic institutions" to the military and everybody else who's part of my powerbase, a few as well to members of the opposition who dont hate me so much as try to murder me at the first opportunity
Then I'd create a public school system(assuming the country doesnt have one already) and interconnect it to the political system
How? Succession
While these people I said would hold these positions, they would eventually retire, and who would succeed them? Or rather, how would we choose who succeeds them?
Simple, not through voting, but through meritocracy(yes you can laugh)
I'd set up the system in a way so that only those with the best school scores would receive positions in tbe government
I doubt the elite would mind this, since now rather than having to maneuver their way into getting undeserved positions in the armed forces they'd just have to send their relatives to the best schools and maaaaybe bribe their way through
But this also means even the commoners would now have a chance to gain seats in the government, not a high chance mind you, but a chance nonethless
This means for once both the poor & rich would now see advantage in investing their time(for the former) and money(for the later) into education and see the educational system as the column that holds the nation together, with the educational system receiving investments from all the sectors of society who want a better education and a neat place in power for their children
Of course as with the aforementioned bribes it'd be a highly corrupt full-of-money-laundrying system, but in time it would naturally improve and hopefully get better, specially with me inviting foreign educators to aid it's development and inspectors to call out such cases to create pressure against corruption
This would allow the country to transition from a military government to a de facto civilian one who actually holds the power over the nation instead of the army, even if from the point of view of someone watching it unfold nothing seemingly changed, which is good as people often fight against change
In time, and with luck, the country would have achieve a degree of education and development that it doesnt need such a system anymore and can transition from nominally democratic government based on academic prowess to a real democracy based on voting with a universal suffrage system
Or who knows? Maybe the college-cracy works so well it doesnt need such a transition and it becomes a neat part of my nation's culture, but in either case I'd make sure to detail my views on my Will so that it is well known by everyone after I die
As for my own powers, I'd keep my position, because in autocracies such as the one I'd be leading it's way too common for the whole country to collapse when not under the leadership of "strong man"tm and the last thing I would want is a civil war after me getting murdered by the opposition, or my family or even a overzealous supporter because I retired when I was not supposed to
So I'd still keep the title of "almighty president" or whatever thing my subjects got used to calling me, and my family(or whoever that is naturally expected to succeed me) still would receive my position upon my death
However I would make sure to de facto reduce and give up all the powers my position possess that I can get away with, so that when my "natural heir" replaces me they'll find themselves as powerless I'd be at the end of my reign - thus I'd become essencially a Arab Elizabeth II

Would this all work out?
Being cynic, probably not
But there's always a chance it would

In the best scenario where I did those crimes...well, its not a best case scenario, but at least my country would be protected by the international community and slowly recover now that the tyrant is dead and in a last act of atonement ensured the world would forever see harming it a taboo, slowly thriving thanks to the compassion of the people who were touched by my last words (Option 1)

In the best case scenario where I did not commit those crimes I would be known as an educator, a reformer who did what was necessary to set up my country towards the path of becoming a first world nation, the one who freed my country from imperial oppression and stood up against the most powerful nation in the world - who unfairly accused me of crimes I didnt commit and threatned to destroy everything I had fough for- and scared it away
The man/woman who made Wesnar a beacon of hope in the middle of totalitarian despair and became the Prince/Queen of my people in all but name who showed even the worst off countries could make it through and become something beautiful (Option 2)

And in the worst case scenario?

Im tortured and executed, possibly without trial, and so is my family and giving myself up did nothing but ensure my country would be without leadership during the invasion that utterly devastates it, making Iraq look tame in comparison, ensuring my people would be nothing but de facto slaves as nation is forever made into a modern world colony destined to be exploited forever (Option 1)

My country gets nuked, badly, possibly target of bioweapons as retaliation as well, alongside pillaging, rape and ethnic cleansing of my people in the middle of the fallout wasteland
Im forever known as the middle east Kim Jong Un, who's mocked and hated, a coward idiot likely captured trying to flee to the South Pole, something that will humour generations forevermore while I lay frozen in the sea after being tortured, shoot and thrown into the ice to freeze to death
My ideals however do not die, they live...for a while, to make the world worse, as my foreign policy is used to justify not accepting immigrants and dictatorships everywhere use my writings to justify never embracing democracy and instead creating totalitarian oligarchies in the name of education, turning their school systems into a place of nationalistic indoctrination and a money laundry as the children of the elite "meritocratically" rise to power in the "democratic" system that swears one day they'll allow voting just like many red dictatorships claimed they were only laying the grounds for communism.
My very name becomes synonym with shame and despair (option 2)

Of course in the most realistic scenario I would die in day 1 before a invasion could even be fully thought out
Im not a politician darn it! Im not even muslim, how would this even work?!

Still! For anyone who read up to this point, thank you, I hope it was worth it and you enjoyed your read
 
Guerilla warfare America sucks at it it's how Vietnam and the Taliban won you outlast the Americans and then they go home tired.
 
I would suggest Iran Wesnar use strategies similar to what was detailed in the Millennium Challenge https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

I.e. don’t engage the US in a direct battle on any front, deny them the ability to use their technological supremacy, and make the war cost so much in money, time, material and men that they cut their losses.
Teleporting motorcycle couriers and antiship missiles larger than the boats you mount 'em on? I'm not sure those are viable tactics in the real world...
 
Technically diplomatically, ask China and Russia to veto the UN resolution on the like you know the so called liberation. Host some kind of rallies where they can see that they love the regime, host an election where you and your party win landslide 100% to prove your point and others. Technically now condemned by the UN, they have no choice but to back down. Later reward China and Russia by giving them huge concessions on oil fields etc to increase oil production
 
Wesnar is portrayed as ethnically and religiously homogenous. This is despite the minority religious community and minority ethnic communities having been European collaborators and discriminated against in autocracy by glorious leader. Any majority majority Wesnarian knows that minority and minority are horribly wrong but the division is real.
 
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