So, I've been trying to play a thought experiment lately and stumbling, because I'm not particularly well versed in economic history. I was hoping that there might be those here who could offer some clarity.
The basic scenario is this: A Southern state decides to be rid of slavery prior to the invention of the cotton gin. And before anyone starts gnashing of teeth, I understand that this is somewhat unlikely, but lets take the following criteria as a given:
1) The state is North Carolina. Partially because there WAS an anti-slaver movement in the state in the early days of the Union (thanks to the Quaker population), was the home of Levi Coffin, but mainly because it had a fairly well entrenched plantation economy.
2) Total emancipation is unlikely, even for the cause of a thought experiment such as this. So, lets say that a gradual emancipation plan in favored. African-Americans born to slaves after January 1, 1815 are given their freedom. The state also sells bonds, the proceeds of which go to the purchase of those is slavery, with these bonds being sold both in the state and throughout the nation.
3) This creates a situation where slavery begins to peter out, probably within ten to 15 years (especially coupled with the banning of the slave trade). Although slavery will likely continue in pockets up until the 1860s, the lack of new slaves being born and the purchasing of current slaves to give them freedom is going to take its toll. Following the banning of the slave trade, prices of slaves increased and there's no reason to think it wouldn't here. I expect many plantation owners to see the writing on the wall and sell many of their slaves to Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.
So, we now have a situation where a former chattel slavery economy has gone (largely) to free labor. You also have a growing population of free African-Americans and also a large population of free white small farmers. My questions are this:
1) Would the plantations be able to survive? If so, how would they adapt to the new economic situation?
2) If they are not able to survive, how would they be dissolved. Would you still see the social stratification that you find in other Southern states with a wealthy elite and, well, everyone else.
3) How would the state absorb such the newly freed slaves? I would expect there to be a large African colonization movement, but there's no reason to think it would be any more successful than in OTL (though maybe I'm wrong). You might also see freed blacks setting out for the West; though I can't imagine they would find a happy home in the Deep South states at this time. More like migrate to the Old Northwest, which would also be an interesting scenario to explore.
So, there you go. I look forward to hearing your guys' thoughts and welcome any sources that someone might be able to suggest.
CAUTION: I understand that this is a sensitive issue, but I ask that people stay civil AND stay on topic. I would really prefer this discussion not fall down the rabbit hole of nearly every other southern related discussion out there. As I said, this is a thought experiment only, and I'm not really interested in the feasibility of the scenario or how it comes about. If you are having trouble dealing with the very real state of North Carolina, please feel free to think of it as any hypothetical plantation state. It could even be the made up state of Virgituckistan if it makes it easier.
The basic scenario is this: A Southern state decides to be rid of slavery prior to the invention of the cotton gin. And before anyone starts gnashing of teeth, I understand that this is somewhat unlikely, but lets take the following criteria as a given:
1) The state is North Carolina. Partially because there WAS an anti-slaver movement in the state in the early days of the Union (thanks to the Quaker population), was the home of Levi Coffin, but mainly because it had a fairly well entrenched plantation economy.
2) Total emancipation is unlikely, even for the cause of a thought experiment such as this. So, lets say that a gradual emancipation plan in favored. African-Americans born to slaves after January 1, 1815 are given their freedom. The state also sells bonds, the proceeds of which go to the purchase of those is slavery, with these bonds being sold both in the state and throughout the nation.
3) This creates a situation where slavery begins to peter out, probably within ten to 15 years (especially coupled with the banning of the slave trade). Although slavery will likely continue in pockets up until the 1860s, the lack of new slaves being born and the purchasing of current slaves to give them freedom is going to take its toll. Following the banning of the slave trade, prices of slaves increased and there's no reason to think it wouldn't here. I expect many plantation owners to see the writing on the wall and sell many of their slaves to Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.
So, we now have a situation where a former chattel slavery economy has gone (largely) to free labor. You also have a growing population of free African-Americans and also a large population of free white small farmers. My questions are this:
1) Would the plantations be able to survive? If so, how would they adapt to the new economic situation?
2) If they are not able to survive, how would they be dissolved. Would you still see the social stratification that you find in other Southern states with a wealthy elite and, well, everyone else.
3) How would the state absorb such the newly freed slaves? I would expect there to be a large African colonization movement, but there's no reason to think it would be any more successful than in OTL (though maybe I'm wrong). You might also see freed blacks setting out for the West; though I can't imagine they would find a happy home in the Deep South states at this time. More like migrate to the Old Northwest, which would also be an interesting scenario to explore.
So, there you go. I look forward to hearing your guys' thoughts and welcome any sources that someone might be able to suggest.
CAUTION: I understand that this is a sensitive issue, but I ask that people stay civil AND stay on topic. I would really prefer this discussion not fall down the rabbit hole of nearly every other southern related discussion out there. As I said, this is a thought experiment only, and I'm not really interested in the feasibility of the scenario or how it comes about. If you are having trouble dealing with the very real state of North Carolina, please feel free to think of it as any hypothetical plantation state. It could even be the made up state of Virgituckistan if it makes it easier.
