Thirty Years War with Post Fawkes England

[flamelord]

I know there have been some successful Guy Fawkes threads here before, but I was interested in more of the long term aspects of it.

Going off of this, lets assume scenario 1 takes place. Parliament goes boom on October 5, 1605. The uprising fails due to no one supporting it. The monarchy takes back a ton of authority due to lots of the nobility being dead. there's a massive retaliation against the Catholic population, which makes France and Spain not like Britain. the Irish rise up but are crushed. Charles has a regent put in place, and he is raised worshiping his dead martyr parents. He also becomes a fervent Protestant.

So, the Thirty Years War rolls around. France and Spain have had the chance to expand a bit more in this TL than they did in IRL due to turmoil in Britain. But in this TL, Britain is very Protestant. How would the war develop/turn out?

 

[Georgie Porgie]

ENgland and Scotland where bit part players in OTL, however given the circumstances the protestant king (now 18 and come into his majority) would want to exact revenge against the hated Catholics.

The British army is never much however and the navy is iffy and second rate so this will go one of two ways.

1) England / Scotland join the wars and get hammered and with draw with bloody noses.

2) As above but then go through the process that the army and navy did under Cromwell. Professional officer class and full time soldier and sailors. Britain then re-enters the war and lands a decisive blow for Protestantism.

However given the numbers of troops and ships I can't really see a major change in the course of the war.

 

[wietze]

apart from the 30 year war, think also how it will influence the dutch 80 year war. With a much more protestant Britain, they will give much more support than OTL, and maybe closer ties.

 

[Arachnid]

I was actually thinking about writing a TL on this topic and had done a bit of cursory research before rl got in the way. Anyway my conclusion was similar to Professor Hutton in that Charles would be raised as a model zealot complete with martyr parents and would inevitably drag England into all sorts of fun and games both on the Continent and in Ireland. However unlike him I don't think converting Ireland would be at all easy, it would be a long drawn out and extremely bloody nightmare while Catholic hating Charles would also be trying to drag England into every Protestant-Catholic religious war available. The key thing is that sooner or later moderate Protestant Englishmen are going to get over the "revenge for our martyred Monarch" phase and find themselves in multiple, bloody, expensive wars, the potential for disagreement between Crown and Country would still be there and some form of civil strife would be entirely possible. Civil War with Charles backed by Scotland and Puritan East Anglia versus the more moderate Welsh, West Country and the North of England?

 

[Space Oddity]

The key thing is that sooner or later moderate Protestant Englishmen are going to get over the "revenge for our martyred Monarch" phase and find themselves in multiple, bloody, expensive wars, the potential for disagreement between Crown and Country would still be there and some form of civil strife would be entirely possible. Civil War with Charles backed by Scotland and Puritan East Anglia versus the more moderate Welsh, West Country and the North of England?

The problem being that the antiroyalists in such a Civil War would be pretty easy to paint as a bunch of foreign-backed papist subversives, making their defeat... significantly easier. Hell, ITTL, the "Roundheads" might be the one with the romantic sheen of noble losers.

 

[Arachnid]

The problem being that the antiroyalists in such a Civil War would be pretty easy to paint as a bunch of foreign-backed papist subversives, making their defeat... significantly easier. Hell, ITTL, the "Roundheads" might be the one with the romantic sheen of noble losers.

But who would be the Roundhead's and who would be the Cavaliers? The more hardline "cold is God's way of telling us to burn more Catholics" Protestants would be backing the King in this scenario but so would much of the Cavalier aristocracy. The potential for shenanigans is enormous, in the Royalist camp you would have both middle-class East Anglian religious radicals but also "Divine Right of Kings" aristocrats, two groups that are not natural allies. While in the opposition camp you would have Parliamentarians unhappy with Charles using the memory of his martyred parents to turn England absolutist, but in OTL those were also the people most prone to Puritanism. Combine them with religious moderates tired of endless wars and taxes and the few remaining crypto-Catholics and you have an equally divided opposition.

 

[Space Oddity]

But who would be the Roundhead's and who would be the Cavaliers? The more hardline "cold is God's way of telling us to burn more Catholics" Protestants would be backing the King in this scenario but so would much of the Cavalier aristocracy. The potential for shenanigans is enormous, in the Royalist camp you would have both middle-class East Anglian religious radicals but also "Divine Right of Kings" aristocrats, two groups that are not natural allies. While in the opposition camp you would have Parliamentarians unhappy with Charles using the memory of his martyred parents to turn England absolutist, but in OTL those were also the people most prone to Puritanism. Combine them with religious moderates tired of endless wars and taxes and the few remaining crypto-Catholics and you have an equally divided opposition.

And the Parliamentarians, Crypto-Catholics and religious moderates are going to work as a happy harmonious whole because...?

This sounds more like an English Fronde then anything approaching OTL's Civil War, and that being the case, I bet on the King. Charles and family--and I have to wonder who he marries in this scenario--prove far better able to unite their coalition (on a purely symbolic basis alone) than their opponents' various differing causes. The antiroyalists splinter, and are dealt with piecemeal. Charles probably buys the Parliamentalists and the moderates off with a few promises that are renenged on over the years. The crypto-Catholics get left out in the cold. And English liberty starts to die a slow, slow death.

 

[Arachnid]

And the Parliamentarians, Crypto-Catholics and religious moderates are going to work as a happy harmonious whole because...?

This sounds more like an English Fronde then anything approaching OTL's Civil War, and that being the case, I bet on the King. Charles and family--and I have to wonder who he marries in this scenario--prove far better able to unite their coalition (on a purely symbolic basis alone) than their opponents' various differing causes. The antiroyalists splinter, and are dealt with piecemeal. Charles probably buys the Parliamentalists and the moderates off with a few promises that are renenged on over the years. The crypto-Catholics get left out in the cold. And English liberty starts to die a slow, slow death.

The Fronde is in some ways a better comparator than the OTL English Civil War although unlike France there is no territorial nobility to consider. The opposition is obviously extremely divided but remember the King only has one group who will back him whatever happens; the "Divine Right of Kings" brigade. They are disproportionately important but it's a pretty small group. The other groups can individually be brought onto his side with the right policy mix but they all have potential to resist and their demands are contradictory, he can't please both the religious moderates and the Puritans, he can't keep taxes down and pacify/plant Ireland. For a long while I think he will be able to play divide and rule but England isn't France and Charles isn't Louis XIV. Sooner or later he's going to push too far and unite a coalition against him and then there is going to be a clash. I think his odds of winning are better than OTL in this scenario but it isn't a sure thing.

 

[Space Oddity]

The Fronde is in some ways a better comparator than the OTL English Civil War although unlike France there is no territorial nobility to consider. The opposition is obviously extremely divided but remember the King only has one group who will back him whatever happens; the "Divine Right of Kings" brigade. They are disproportionately important but it's a pretty small group. The other groups can individually be brought onto his side with the right policy mix but they all have potential to resist and their demands are contradictory, he can't please both the religious moderates and the Puritans, he can't keep taxes down and pacify/plant Ireland. For a long while I think he will be able to play divide and rule but England isn't France and Charles isn't Louis XIV. Sooner or later he's going to push too far and unite a coalition against him and then there is going to be a clash. I think his odds of winning are better than OTL in this scenario but it isn't a sure thing.

Thing is, Louis XIV wasn't exactly Louis XIV when the Fronde happened--just a very young king under the thumb of Cardinal Mazarin, a man who arguably rivaled "Baby Charles" for his ability to foul himself up. And if the various factions are so contradictory that Charles can't keep them all happy, how can they possibly unite into any viable coalition? I'm not saying it will be easy or certain--but English Absolutism has a very good chance ITTL while OTL Parliamentarianism isn't going to happen. (Mind you, there may be some form of Parliamentarianism, but it's probably going to be quite different...)

 

[Elfwine]

Parliament returning to the role of jealously guarding the right to control the power of the purse, even while kings shamelessly manipulate it to their own purposes rendering that power rather abstract (As a check on kings)?

I'm not sure that's the worst case scenario - leaving aside whether or not monarchy is good or bad, you could do worse than this in terms of monarchical problems - but it sounds like only the beginning.

And a beginning like that won't have a happy ending.

Charles I is not someone I want establishing absolutism, and I say this as a monarchist (if not a Cavalier).