The Whites win the Russian Civil War

[Brilliantlight]

POD: Lennin and Trotsky were assasinated by the Whites and the party start unraveling. There is a big fight within the party itself which winds up with a mini civil war among the Communists. The Whites finally are more or less controling the country by 1921. The coalition is made up of Tsarists, Militarialists, Social Democrats and powerful church figures. What happens? Does a new civil war break out or is there any way to get a compromise that everyone can live with?

 

[Grey Wolf]

POD: Lennin and Trotsky were assasinated by the Whites and the party start unraveling. There is a big fight within the party itself which winds up with a mini civil war among the Communists. The Whites finally are more or less controling the country by 1921. The coalition is made up of Tsarists, Militarialists, Social Democrats and powerful church figures. What happens? Does a new civil war break out or is there any way to get a compromise that everyone can live with?

I think you would get what is ironically a Stalinesque compromise - first an all-inclusive government from all groups, then some of them disappear, then the major figures compete and more by stealth than war one emerges triumphant

Now, whether that is a war leader like Kolchak, Deniken, Kornilov or Yudenich, or is a Grand Duke (Dmitri, Michael, Kyril come to mind) or is some parliamentary figure... THAT is the question

Grey Wolf

 

[Brilliantlight]

I think you would get what is ironically a Stalinesque compromise - first an all-inclusive government from all groups, then some of them disappear, then the major figures compete and more by stealth than war one emerges triumphant

Now, whether that is a war leader like Kolchak, Deniken, Kornilov or Yudenich, or is a Grand Duke (Dmitri, Michael, Kyril come to mind) or is some parliamentary figure... THAT is the question

Grey Wolf

Don't count out the Patriarch of Moscow, he should be able to get a lot of support from the believers. Then again I think he will more likely be a major backer then direct ruler.

 

[Macsporan]

My impression is that Russia would devolve towards something indistinguishable from fascism, somewhat in the manner of my incomparable "Fire-Eagle/Snow Bear".

Given the rigidity of the Tsarist system and its utter abhorrence of liberal demorcracy it seems almost inevitable that some sort of totalitarianism would emerge in early 20th Century Russia.

Damned unlucky land--still is.


For those of you old enough to remember "Fire Eagle" I must say that looking back I really didn't like the way that some clown insisted on having a Chinese front.

It was an entirely stupid idea and utterly improbable.

Also, I think the Germans would have developed a strong armoured corps. Can't imagine how I let that slip by.

Has anyone thought of a suitable ending for it? Stalemate? Gridenko assasinated? US intervention?

Ah me...where are the snows of yesteryear?

With rue my heart is laden
For many a friend I had
And may a rose-lipped maiden
And many a lightfoot lad.

By streams to deep for leaping
The lightfoot lads are laid
The rose-lipped girls are sleeping
In fields where roses fade.

 

[Brilliantlight]

My impression is that Russia would devolve towards something indistinguishable from fascism, somewhat in the manner of my incomparable "Fire-Eagle/Snow Bear".

Given the rigidity of the Tsarist system and its utter abhorrence of liberal demorcracy it seems almost inevitable that some sort of totalitarianism would emerge in early 20th Century Russia.

Damned unlucky land--still is.


For those of you old enough to remember "Fire Eagle" I must say that looking back I really didn't like the way that some clown insisted on having a Chinese front.

It was an entirely stupid idea and utterly improbable.

Also, I think the Germans would have developed a strong armoured corps. Can't imagine how I let that slip by.

Has anyone thought of a suitable ending for it? Stalemate? Gridenko assasinated? US intervention?

Ah me...where are the snows of yesteryear?

With rue my heart is laden
For many a friend I had
And may a rose-lipped maiden
And many a lightfoot lad.

By streams to deep for leaping
The lightfoot lads are laid
The rose-lipped girls are sleeping
In fields where roses fade.

Facism is a possiblity and so is a straight theocracy or a return to a monarchy.

 

[Michael]

As is the possiblility that you don't need to quote the entire post above you when adding a one line addition

 

[Brilliantlight]

For me the most likely scenario is a return to a strong Monarchy. If a lot of nobles are killed by 1921 some titles could be given by the new Tsar to those that really helped it. I expect some bloodletting but not on a scale that it was under Lennin not talking about Stalin. The Russian Orthodox church is likely to be rewarded by more churches being built. The militarists would be happy that the army is being rebuilt. The Social Democrats would be "rewarded" by not being killed as under Lennin and Stalin.

 

[Tom_B]

Sidney Reilly--the man who inspired James Bond--supposedly attempted to assasinate Lenin. I think he had some puppet government he wanted to install as well. Perhaps he is totally successful with the assination and partially successful with the puppets.

 

[Brilliantlight]

Sidney Reilly--the man who inspired James Bond--supposedly attempted to assasinate Lenin. I think he had some puppet government he wanted to install as well. Perhaps he is totally successful with the assination and partially successful with the puppets.

What kind of puppet regime was he planning to install?

 

[Tom_B]

Ace of Spies

When dealing with Reilly stories one needs to be careful. There is legend mixed in with the facts--he is sort of the 20th century version of the Count de St. Germain. I'll see what details I can get that are close to credible.

Reilly was not his real name BTW. He came from Russia and while he worked for C (the basis for Fleming's M) he is often thought to have his agenda.

Tom

 

[Scarecrow]

i'm not to sure about the actual political leadership, perhaps fasist? but one thing that will happen, espsialy if the country is ravaged by civil war, and there are foodshortages etc, then the white leadership will be looking for someone to blame, enter the Jews. it needs to be noted that during OTL the Jewish pograms were continued in the Russian Civil war by the Whites. Now if the whites win, then they will probably continue the pograms, with the country devistated by war and all. could this fasist anti-semetic Russia could look for an allience with Nazi Germany?

 

[LordKalvan]

i'm not to sure about the actual political leadership, perhaps fasist? but one thing that will happen, espsialy if the country is ravaged by civil war, and there are foodshortages etc, then the white leadership will be looking for someone to blame, enter the Jews. it needs to be noted that during OTL the Jewish pograms were continued in the Russian Civil war by the Whites. Now if the whites win, then they will probably continue the pograms, with the country devistated by war and all. could this fasist anti-semetic Russia could look for an allience with Nazi Germany?

There is not yet (and maybe there will never be) a nazi germany in TTL.
Plus, the chances of having Germany (any kind of germany) truly friendly to any kind of Russia are something less than zero

Something else no one has pointed out: a successful White counter-revolution can only come through western aid. There will be significant pressure (in particular from the British) to set up a decent regime in Russia. It could be a new monarchy, but the military men will have a lot of power. I would expect something similar to a south-american junta effectively in power, whatever the apparent situation might be

 

[Brilliantlight]

There is not yet (and maybe there will never be) a nazi germany in TTL.
Plus, the chances of having Germany (any kind of germany) truly friendly to any kind of Russia are something less than zero

Something else no one has pointed out: a successful White counter-revolution can only come through western aid. There will be significant pressure (in particular from the British) to set up a decent regime in Russia. It could be a new monarchy, but the military men will have a lot of power. I would expect something similar to a south-american junta effectively in power, whatever the apparent situation might be

I agree the Nazis will not come to power as they can't be seen as a counterweight to a non existant USSR.

With both Lennin and Trotsky dead and a mini civil war breaking out between the Communists the Whites may well win without Western support. I also disagree that there isn't a chance of a German - Russian alliance. I don't think it is too likely but it is possible.

 

[LordKalvan]

I agree the Nazis will not come to power as they can't be seen as a counterweight to a non existant USSR.

With both Lennin and Trotsky dead and a mini civil war breaking out between the Communists the Whites may well win without Western support. I also disagree that there isn't a chance of a German - Russian alliance. I don't think it is too likely but it is possible.

Actually, there might be a communist revolution in Germany (it was almost there in OTL).

I doubt that the Whites may win without Western support: very unlikely.
As far as russo-german relations, they are (and have always been) natural enemies. You may have short romances (usually for tactical reasons: the development of german tanks in Russia, and the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact come to mind), but Germans believe that the only good Russian is a dead Russian (the reverse applies too, obviously )

 

[Grey Wolf]

I could see a possible German-White alliance, depending on who we are talking about. Freikorps in the Baltics could establish friendly relations with a Yudenich-dominated White regime. Ludendorff in the Autumn of 1918 was providing support to Yudenich. In addition, if Yudenich takes advantage of a Red collapse, you could see an odd tripartite alliance including Mannerheim's Finns.

Grey Wolf

 

[stodge]

Revolutions...

The experience of France in 1792-94 shows that a popular revolution can successfully defend itself against often superior external forces if for no other reason than the population might fear the revenge of those they had overthrown.

For a "White" campaign to have succeeded, I think you need two changes. First, a less successful Bolshevik revolution so that the closing of the Constituent Assembly in January 1918 forces Mensheviks, SRs and others to take up arms against the Bolsheviks. More important, you need the Whites NOT to be some group of ex-Tsarist army officers but a more broad-based coalition to which groups like the Mensheviks and SRs could join. In other words, an anti-Bolshevik front rather than a counter-revolutionary front.

Let's suppose that such a broad-based coalition comes into being in the spring of 1918 with the Mensheviks leading protest in the towns, the SRs in the countryside and Yudenich and others fighting the Red Army directly.

By the Autumn of 1918, facing defeat and retreat on a number of fronts, the Bolsheviks face growing insurrection and desertion in the cities. On November 9th 1918, Trotsky is killed in a skirmish with anti-Bolshevik troops south of Moscow. With the war ending in the West and the prospect of British and American intervention and with growing civil disorder in both Moscow and Petrograd, Lenin loses his nerve and flees Russia leaving Stalin to face the end as anti-Bolshevik armies gather around Moscow for the final battle.

On December 10th 1918, the last Bolshevik stronghold in Moscow has fallen, the city is in ruins with thousands dead among them Stalin. In Petrograd, a new Provisional Russian Government is formed which immediately calls elections for a new Constitutional Assembly.

The elections show the Social Revolutionaries and Mensheviks to be the most powerful bloc, opposed by a strong Peasants' Party. The SR leader becomes the new Prime Minister of the Russian Republic on March 1st 1919.

 

[Brilliantlight]

Actually, there might be a communist revolution in Germany (it was almost there in OTL).

I doubt that the Whites may win without Western support: very unlikely.
As far as russo-german relations, they are (and have always been) natural enemies. You may have short romances (usually for tactical reasons: the development of german tanks in Russia, and the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact come to mind), but Germans believe that the only good Russian is a dead Russian (the reverse applies too, obviously )

Without its two biggest leaders and with the Reds shooting each other I think that the Communists just might lose. It is easier to win when the enemy is doing half the job for you.

 

[Brilliantlight]

The experience of France in 1792-94 shows that a popular revolution can successfully defend itself against often superior external forces if for no other reason than the population might fear the revenge of those they had overthrown.

For a "White" campaign to have succeeded, I think you need two changes. First, a less successful Bolshevik revolution so that the closing of the Constituent Assembly in January 1918 forces Mensheviks, SRs and others to take up arms against the Bolsheviks. More important, you need the Whites NOT to be some group of ex-Tsarist army officers but a more broad-based coalition to which groups like the Mensheviks and SRs could join. In other words, an anti-Bolshevik front rather than a counter-revolutionary front.

Let's suppose that such a broad-based coalition comes into being in the spring of 1918 with the Mensheviks leading protest in the towns, the SRs in the countryside and Yudenich and others fighting the Red Army directly.

By the Autumn of 1918, facing defeat and retreat on a number of fronts, the Bolsheviks face growing insurrection and desertion in the cities. On November 9th 1918, Trotsky is killed in a skirmish with anti-Bolshevik troops south of Moscow. With the war ending in the West and the prospect of British and American intervention and with growing civil disorder in both Moscow and Petrograd, Lenin loses his nerve and flees Russia leaving Stalin to face the end as anti-Bolshevik armies gather around Moscow for the final battle.

On December 10th 1918, the last Bolshevik stronghold in Moscow has fallen, the city is in ruins with thousands dead among them Stalin. In Petrograd, a new Provisional Russian Government is formed which immediately calls elections for a new Constitutional Assembly.

The elections show the Social Revolutionaries and Mensheviks to be the most powerful bloc, opposed by a strong Peasants' Party. The SR leader becomes the new Prime Minister of the Russian Republic on March 1st 1919.

Sounds good, but let's have Lennin killed by one of his own men for desertion that way we have both assasinated as the beggining thread states. I could even see some small groups of Bolsheviks shooting people as late as 1921 as stated in the first thread.

 

[Grey Wolf]

If Lenin and Trotsky are assassinated and the Reds begin to fall apart around Petrograd, then I really do think you can see a temporary coalition of Mannerheim, Yudenich and the Frei Korps. If Yudenich, or even Mannerheim, can seize Petrograd then the position of the Bolsheviks begins to fall apart. Mannerheim wouldn't be looking to hold the city, though he would use it as a bargaining point for Karelia and maybe other disputed areas, and would probably hold the city for the Whites of his choice. If Yudenich can take Petrograd himself that is going to massively increase his ability to project his political power.

Unfortunately, things begin to get confusing in my mind here. After all we are talking a spread of at least 1918-1920 and the knock-ons are going to depend WHEN things happen. And once something has happened does it derail something we know from OTL and create events we need to deal with afresh ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Brilliantlight]

If Lenin and Trotsky are assassinated and the Reds begin to fall apart around Petrograd, then I really do think you can see a temporary coalition of Mannerheim, Yudenich and the Frei Korps. If Yudenich, or even Mannerheim, can seize Petrograd then the position of the Bolsheviks begins to fall apart. Mannerheim wouldn't be looking to hold the city, though he would use it as a bargaining point for Karelia and maybe other disputed areas, and would probably hold the city for the Whites of his choice. If Yudenich can take Petrograd himself that is going to massively increase his ability to project his political power.

Unfortunately, things begin to get confusing in my mind here. After all we are talking a spread of at least 1918-1920 and the knock-ons are going to depend WHEN things happen. And once something has happened does it derail something we know from OTL and create events we need to deal with afresh ?

Grey Wolf

Let's go with the election in 1919 like stodge had come up with and the end of the fighting in 1921.