The Tsar's Iron Curtain

[Deleted member 109224]

Here's a thought: A Russian dominated East Europe following WWI.

Russia gains Upper Silesia, Posen, Danzig, Kashubia, Galicia-Lodomeria, and Bukovina following WWI (a war the Entente wins fairly quickly relative to OTL, sparing the Empire).

Czechoslovakia becomes an independent, Russian-aligned, Romanov Kingdom.
Admiral Horthy TTL, seeing the way the wind is blowing, puts a Romanov on the Hungarian throne (the only condition being they convert to Catholicism of course).
Yugoslavia remains buddy buddy with Moscow.
Eastern Pomerania and East Prussia are demilitarized Zones.

Romania's relations with Russia OTL were fairly tense before the Great War IIRC. The Romanians were a significant export competitor to Russia, and the Russians allowed Silt to build up at the mouth of the Danube in order to hamper Romanian exports.
I'm not sure what Bulgaria's position would be. The Bulgarians basically had beef with everybody at this point.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Why not OTL's post-WWII borders for Germany in the east?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Well, Britain starts the ringing the alarm bells at such a massive growth in Russian influence now that the German threat is gone, so I fully expect them to start helping pull up Constantinople (Given you didn't mention that greatest of Russian desires, I assume the Ottomans were neutral) and attempt to split France off from her by any means possible. Romania,,in all likelihood, has to Finlandize (in the Cold War sense) to Russia given their hopeless position, which puts Bulgaria into the anti-Russian camp (Biggest beefs and with Yugoslavia* and Romania, while Ottomans were the first nation they tried to reconcile with)

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Why not OTL's post-WWII borders for Germany in the east?

Because this is Post-WWI rather than post-WWI and it took a second very bloody total war and lots of ethnic cleansing to get the OTL boundary. Here it's more or less the post-WWI boundary except Gdansk is Russian rather than Independent here and the Silesian plebiscite zone belongs to Russia.

Well, Britain starts the ringing the alarm bells at such a massive growth in Russian influence now that the German threat is gone, so I fully expect them to start helping pull up Constantinople (Given you didn't mention that greatest of Russian desires, I assume the Ottomans were neutral) and attempt to split France off from her by any means possible. Romania,,in all likelihood, has to Finlandize (in the Cold War sense) to Russia given their hopeless position, which puts Bulgaria into the anti-Russian camp (Biggest beefs and with Yugoslavia* and Romania, while Ottomans were the first nation they tried to reconcile with)

I think the British might provide greater support for the Briand-Stresemann effort towards German unification and take greater interest in the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

I didn't think about the situation of the Ottomans. Their neutrality definitely seems like the easiest way to have the war end early.

I'm not sure about Romania. With Hungarians to their west and Russians/Soviets to their north and east they tried for an alliance with France OTL. If they don't try for that, then I can see them Finlandizing.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I think the British might provide greater support for the Briand-Stresemann effort towards German unification and take greater interest in the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

I didn't think about the situation of the Ottomans. Their neutrality definitely seems like the easiest way to have the war end early.

I'm not sure about Romania. With Hungarians to their west and Russians/Soviets to their north and east they tried for an alliance with France OTL. If they don't try for that, then I can see them Finlandizing.

That's a distinct possibility, though in the event of a massive early defeat I'm not sure the Habsburg's legitimacy and Austrian state structure would have had time to collapse enough the Pan-Germanists would be particularly domineering poisition, especially since Berlin has also dropped the ball pretty hard. Old Franz is still alive following the quick defeat and is in a position to smooth over Charles assention so the new Emperor isen't stuck trying to establish a new, modern administration with the first new policy for the first time in half a century during the middle of a giant multi-national war in which his country is getting beaten to a gooey pulp. Especially after Horthy sold Greater Hungary down the river and stuck a forgein tyrant on top of the Magyar Gentry, I woulden't be surprised if there was an upsurge of Pro-Habsburg nostalgia among the Hungarians, while Charles would be able to hold the throne of Austria easily without I suppose you could have Austria sucked in under a united Reich, if Germany is kept under the Imperial system, but I'm less certain that would happen. Kaiser Wilhelm would, a the very least, likely be obligated to abdicate to his son, and the German political system would be under heavy pressure to reform. Still, Brtain woulden't want to see them utterly defanged in order to act as a stablizing force in Centeral Europe and check against Russian influence creep. Alot depends on exactly how long the war was and what the settlement in the West was, particularly in how the French and British did or did not get along in balancing their respective interests. I fully agree on the matter of Japan though; they barely got out of the Russo-Japanese War ahead, and would likely want Britain to gurantee their protection in the event Russia wants to take a second shot an dominance in Manchuria, which with Chinese influence still up for grabs (Being the next real target for Imperialism, given a shorter war means Europe is less exhausted)

Getting the Ottomans to be a co-operative neutral would require France and Britain to be willing to play ball, likely with a POD earlier on. I'll admit, its really tricky with a POD at the war's start unless Germany is getting curb stomped right off the bat. Perhaps the Goeben and Breslau are under hotter pursuit, and try to run the Strait fortresses before a deal gets hammered out with the Turks, resulting in the ships getting fired on and sunk? If nothing else, it would mean the German-crewed ships woulden't be around to do the Svestapol raids under "false flag" that finally forced the issue of Ottoman entry. It could delay the situation long enough that CP military reversals disuade even Enver from joining in.

What help could France realistically give to the Romania, though? Supporting that country either economically or militarily would be an expensive and difficult to sustain prospect, especially since Bulgarian wants ( South Dobruja is their biggest breadbasket) and open alliance with France would give Russia a wedge issue on which to pull Bulgaria into their orbit, and also allow the Russians to back their Hungarian clients in Transylvanian claims and thus harness greater loyal and support from Budapest. Its near suicide for Romania to be anything less than warm to the Russians.

 

[Aphrodite]

I love these scenarios. They get back to Morley's famous question to his cabinet colleagues "Have you considered what will happen if the Russians win?"

The Franco-Russian agreements allowed for France to set its Eastern Border and Russia its western border wherever they wanted. France is likely to take the Rhine and Russia is definitely taking East Prussia. This doesn't has to mean annexation, ethnic cleansing or other extreme measures. It does mean occupation and detaching the regions from Germany

The rest is reasonable. Russia will be able to impose whatever terms it wants in the East unless someone is willing and able to force them out which is hard to see. Romania will definitely be a Russian satellite as the Russians would be able to pour 100 divisions into it before anyone else could get there

Britain's position is a bit worse than assumed here. First, the Japanese are interested in further expansion and not just checking the Russians. This isn't really in Britain's interests and conflicts greatly with American The Japanese are just as likely to ally with Russia against America as they are to stick to Britain. In any case, the Japanese can't really threaten the Russians. They can attack Russia in the Far East and check her advancement but there's nothing vital to the Russian Empire out there. Russia and Japan would stay neutral towards each other during WWII despite being in opposite camps

Any British effort to build up a stronger Germany as a counterweight to Russia won't work either. First, a stronger Germany threatens not only Russia but also France. Its likely to keep France firmly in the Russian camp. Second, Germany will never be strong enough to counter Russia. The Germans will conclude, that they couldn't beat France and Russia with Austria's help, so how are we fighting them with Austria destroyed and the French on the Rhine and the Russian's on the Oder? Russia actually would prefer a moderately strong Germany

Finally, what happens to the Austrian and German fleets? In OTL, the German fleet is interned in Scappa Flow and then scuttled. In this scenario, is that possible or do the French and Russians manage to get it divided?

 

[jerseyguy]

Is it plausible to break off the German Empire east of the Elbe as a Russian client state? The Black Hundreds would be ideologically sympathetic to a more absolutist, aristocratic Prussian rump state that can help Petrograd crack down on Polish nationalism. It might be easier to keep the Habsburg Empire around, or at least the Kingdom of Hungary, to suppress nationalism in its sphere of influence.

It would be interesting to see a scenario where Germany, Prussia, and Austria all exist at the same time. This alt-Germany would be limited to the former territory of the Confederation of the Rhine and the current FRG, but it would be much more left-wing and Catholic without Prussians involved.

Why would the czar want more rebellious Polish subjects? Pan-Slavists may agitate for the annexation of East Galicia, Bukovina, and and Subcarpathian Rus, but that seems like the plausible extent of irredentism based on ethnolinguistic grounds.

In the long term the empire would be more manageable if Congress Poland, Finland, Khiva, and Bukhara were given de jure independence, if not in a personal union with the Romanovs then as bantustans to make Russification in the rest of the Empire proceed more easily.

What happens to eastern Europe's Jews in this scenario? Would the Czar try to spread anti-Jewish laws to places in its sphere of influence like Romania? An SR-dominated Russia would likely emancipate the Empire's Jews as the Provisional government did OTL, but a more rightist regime would keep the restrictions in place longer or try to encourage emigration (the openness of the US and Palestine is a big limiting factor here).

 

[dbakes994]

I love these scenarios. They get back to Morley's famous question to his cabinet colleagues "Have you considered what will happen if the Russians win?"

The Franco-Russian agreements allowed for France to set its Eastern Border and Russia its western border wherever they wanted. France is likely to take the Rhine and Russia is definitely taking East Prussia. This doesn't has to mean annexation, ethnic cleansing or other extreme measures. It does mean occupation and detaching the regions from Germany

The rest is reasonable. Russia will be able to impose whatever terms it wants in the East unless someone is willing and able to force them out which is hard to see. Romania will definitely be a Russian satellite as the Russians would be able to pour 100 divisions into it before anyone else could get there

Britain's position is a bit worse than assumed here. First, the Japanese are interested in further expansion and not just checking the Russians. This isn't really in Britain's interests and conflicts greatly with American The Japanese are just as likely to ally with Russia against America as they are to stick to Britain. In any case, the Japanese can't really threaten the Russians. They can attack Russia in the Far East and check her advancement but there's nothing vital to the Russian Empire out there. Russia and Japan would stay neutral towards each other during WWII despite being in opposite camps

Any British effort to build up a stronger Germany as a counterweight to Russia won't work either. First, a stronger Germany threatens not only Russia but also France. Its likely to keep France firmly in the Russian camp. Second, Germany will never be strong enough to counter Russia. The Germans will conclude, that they couldn't beat France and Russia with Austria's help, so how are we fighting them with Austria destroyed and the French on the Rhine and the Russian's on the Oder? Russia actually would prefer a moderately strong Germany

Finally, what happens to the Austrian and German fleets? In OTL, the German fleet is interned in Scappa Flow and then scuttled. In this scenario, is that possible or do the French and Russians manage to get it divided?

I have a feeling that they’ll turn to America on this one, especially with the combined lobbying powers of Anglophile elites, German immigrants sore about how the war went, along with Jewish and Slavic immigrants who experienced Tsarist oppression firsthand.

 

[Aphrodite]

I have a feeling that they’ll turn to America on this one, especially with the combined lobbying powers of Anglophile elites, German immigrants sore about how the war went, along with Jewish and Slavic immigrants who experienced Tsarist oppression firsthand.

There was a growing animosity between the US and Russia over a host of issues such as these. There's also a growing animosity over China. On the other hand, the US was very slow to participate in either World War, had a large Irish community that hated England (not Britain) and had growing tensions with Japan. A Russo-Japanese Alliance in the Pacific is a very powerful foe. If Britain keeps the Japanese alliance, Russo-American raaporchment is possible

Russia also has cards to play- they will back France on anything versus Britain. France is likely to be far more powerful as the German threat will be neutralized and the reparations actually paid. There's also Italy and a falling out between them and the French would give the Russians at least one ally

Finally, by the 1920s or 30s at the latest, a land invasion of India is possible. Who will go to war for Britain's right to rule the subcontinent?

The map has a lot of possibilities. I'm not saying Britain can't weather the storm but the seas will be rocky

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I love these scenarios. They get back to Morley's famous question to his cabinet colleagues "Have you considered what will happen if the Russians win?"

The Franco-Russian agreements allowed for France to set its Eastern Border and Russia its western border wherever they wanted. France is likely to take the Rhine and Russia is definitely taking East Prussia. This doesn't has to mean annexation, ethnic cleansing or other extreme measures. It does mean occupation and detaching the regions from Germany

The rest is reasonable. Russia will be able to impose whatever terms it wants in the East unless someone is willing and able to force them out which is hard to see. Romania will definitely be a Russian satellite as the Russians would be able to pour 100 divisions into it before anyone else could get there

Britain's position is a bit worse than assumed here. First, the Japanese are interested in further expansion and not just checking the Russians. This isn't really in Britain's interests and conflicts greatly with American The Japanese are just as likely to ally with Russia against America as they are to stick to Britain. In any case, the Japanese can't really threaten the Russians. They can attack Russia in the Far East and check her advancement but there's nothing vital to the Russian Empire out there. Russia and Japan would stay neutral towards each other during WWII despite being in opposite camps

Any British effort to build up a stronger Germany as a counterweight to Russia won't work either. First, a stronger Germany threatens not only Russia but also France. Its likely to keep France firmly in the Russian camp. Second, Germany will never be strong enough to counter Russia. The Germans will conclude, that they couldn't beat France and Russia with Austria's help, so how are we fighting them with Austria destroyed and the French on the Rhine and the Russian's on the Oder? Russia actually would prefer a moderately strong Germany

Finally, what happens to the Austrian and German fleets? In OTL, the German fleet is interned in Scappa Flow and then scuttled. In this scenario, is that possible or do the French and Russians manage to get it divided?

There was a growing animosity between the US and Russia over a host of issues such as these. There's also a growing animosity over China. On the other hand, the US was very slow to participate in either World War, had a large Irish community that hated England (not Britain) and had growing tensions with Japan. A Russo-Japanese Alliance in the Pacific is a very powerful foe. If Britain keeps the Japanese alliance, Russo-American raaporchment is possible

Russia also has cards to play- they will back France on anything versus Britain. France is likely to be far more powerful as the German threat will be neutralized and the reparations actually paid. There's also Italy and a falling out between them and the French would give the Russians at least one ally

Finally, by the 1920s or 30s at the latest, a land invasion of India is possible. Who will go to war for Britain's right to rule the subcontinent?

The map has a lot of possibilities. I'm not saying Britain can't weather the storm but the seas will be rocky

This all assume you don't have a Franco-Russian fallout, which I'd argue is a rather distinct possability. Not guranteed, certainly, but its not as though there isen't good justification for considering that possability. After all, the Franco-Russian Entente was somewhat controversial domestically even when the German threat was looming large over the Third Republic and British commitment to the Continent being lukewarm at best, while neither side's security/economic interests were bumping up against one another and thus making them natural allies. With the removal of the Teutonic sphere in Centeral Europe and the surging in of Russia to fill the vacuem, now RUSSIA is the demographically dominaitng, encroaching autocratic threat on the continent, and Britain is firmly interested to courting France. I suppose alot depends on just how delicately Czar Nicholase plays his forgien policy... but given Russia was using aggressive action to build national unity and stifle dissent while the hardships of early economic modernization policies were playing out and with her growing industrial output will be trying to muscle into new markets I can't imagine they'll be very subtle or soft. Especially if Russia drops the ball on the China; likely the next big international issue on the doccet in the event of a short Great War, especially since the African and European pie has already been carved up a Russia looking for captive markets and resource sources will want that giant plumb as her "India", a Britain who plays her cards right could woo France onto her side against the disruptive influence of a rising Russia

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

If the POD is an early victory for the Entente, I don't think that the peace terms would be anything like as harsh as Brest-Litovsk or Versailles.

IMHO more likely might be a slight adjustment for Posen & Thorn - but would Russia welcome additional troublesome Polish subjects?

The real difference would be the establishment of zones of influence in the Balkans. Russia might seek parts of Galicia but the Polish & additional Ruthene populations make that a double-edged sword. There's no land they want from the neutral Romanians but the expulsion of German & AH influence in Bucharest & Sofia would be welcome. Perhaps a demilitarization of most of East Prussia, Silesia & Galicia would be a better option?

Win too soon and the Ottoman Empire may not even join in the war.

Perhaps the cheapest win for Imperial Russia could be the assignment of a large part of the High Seas Fleet in place of territory. A ready-made replacement for the fleets lost in the Far East would make both Britain & Japan nervous.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

D'oh - missed out Serbia. What do we do with her?

Perhaps some slices of Bosnia-Herzegovina and perhaps the (unwelcome) siting of a Russian garrison to keep the Habsburgs honest? She can't get any of Albania as that would rile the French, British & Italians, and the rest of the Balkans would be off-limit assuming all except Montenegro remained Neutral.

Early win won't result in a "large" Yugoslavia. I honestly can't see the Croats being given independence, and they would hate being driven into an alliance with a powerful, vigorous & righteous Serbia.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Considering how even the Nazi-esque Action Francais OTL didn't call for annexing the whole Rhineland (just the southern triangle), I don't think that a less-insane French government will try and take the whole Rhineland. Clemencau wanted a French Saarland and independent-neutral Rhenish Republic, which I think is plausible.

If we're getting into the spirit of dismantling Germany, East Prussia could feasibly be detached. Russia will want Posen, Kashubia, and Danzig (despite the rowdy Poles, they'll still want to control the mouth of the Vistula).




If Russian influence is now extending to the Oder and Adriatic, then I can see Britain finding a friend in Italy at least. The now-defanged Germans would be appealing to the British for friendship and the British would likely be prioritizing splitting the French from the Russians. At the least, I see a London-Rome-Berlin alignment in this scenario (which might extend to Constantinople as well).

Rhineland will still be German in sympathy though, no? It will be a festering sore. Reunification is bound to happen eventually, and I think something along the lines of the OTL relationship between Briande and Stresemann that was moving towards a European Union would have been a likely outcome. France forever secure to the northeast, Germany only having to defend itself to the east, and together they can face off an encroaching Russia.

I'm not sure why Japan would defect to befriending Russia. They're both aggressive and expansionist yes, but they're aggressive and expansionist towards the same region (China). Russia still wants its Pacific Warm-Water port. Britain meanwhile will not be forcing Japan into giving up Qingdao or try to limit the growth of the Japanese Navy the way the Americans did. Do the Russians and Japanese come to an agreement on how to divide Manchuria and China?


Although its also possible France decides to deal with the issue of Perfidious Albion and Britain faces the crisis that is a Franco-Russo-Japanese alliance.

 

[jerseyguy]

This universe's central and eastern Europe could easily end up in much better off than OTL. No Tsarist regime would go around collectivizing agriculture, dynamiting cathedrals, or putting religious leaders in labor camps.

This could really change the history of the Empire's subjects quite dramatically with soviet indigenization/nationalities policy (korenizatsiya). There would likely be more Russification and linguistic assimilation, and religion could become a bigger dividing lines, and non-Russian peoples' self-identification would look dramatically different. In early censuses of nationality in Soviet Central Asia, people often just described themselves as "locals" or listed "Muslim" as their nationality.

There might be a shared "Turkestani" identity in Russian central Asia that forms around a common religion and similar languages and cultures. Rural-urban cultural divides or more local claim/extended families would be more important than someone's assigned nationality and ending up in the Uzbek SSR vs the Kyrgyz SSR or something. Nomadic groups that were forcibly during collectivization OTL might still be around on the steps.

The history of Islam would look dramatically different as well with the suppression of state atheism in such a massive portion of the Muslim world. Jadid reformists in Tatarstan and Central Asia may have ended up replacing Kemalist Turkey as a model for the rest of the Muslim world.

 

[Pelranius]

Is it plausible to break off the German Empire east of the Elbe as a Russian client state? The Black Hundreds would be ideologically sympathetic to a more absolutist, aristocratic Prussian rump state that can help Petrograd crack down on Polish nationalism. It might be easier to keep the Habsburg Empire around, or at least the Kingdom of Hungary, to suppress nationalism in its sphere of influence.

Considering how arch reactionary elements of the German right were even before the war, it's not too much to see a bunch of Junkers and proto Volkisch volunteering to play Marshal Petain.

Perhaps Prince August Wilhelm could be the monarch of such a puppet state?*

*In an aside, in a TL 191 fanfic that I wrote, he was the "Teutonic Grand Duke of Prussia", supported by the forces of Tsarina Olga during the Second Great War.

 

[jerseyguy]

Considering how arch reactionary elements of the German right were even before the war, it's not too much to see a bunch of Junkers and proto Volkisch volunteering to play Marshal Petain.

Perhaps Prince August Wilhelm could be the monarch of such a puppet state?*

*In an aside, in a TL 191 fanfic that I wrote, he was the "Teutonic Grand Duke of Prussia", supported by the forces of Tsarina Olga during the Second Great War.

You're referring to Crown Prince Wilhelm, the eldest son of Kaiser Wilhelm II, right? He would be old enough to rule, and his political views don't seem very favorable towards democracy (likely a positive in Petrograd's view). He joined the Stalhelm in 1931, and contemplated running for President against Hindenburg in 1933. He supported Hitler's rise to power after his father forbade him from running for president.
It depends how much independence Prussia has from Moscow, and how much influence the alt-Kaiser would actually have. He could actually be controlling an independent state's government, or he could be a figurehead like Puyi was. Some combination of his advisers, the military, Junkers, industrialists, and a foreign power (Russia, in this case) could end up having the actual power.

The Czar could restoring an independent Prussian state in Brandenburg, Silesia, Pomerania, East + West Prussia, and Prussian areas of the Polish partition, roughly Prussia's border's circa 1815. ATL Russia aiming to reversing about a century's worth of territorial changes would be less radical than the OTL's popular transfers that reversed about a millennium of migration patterns.

The last century's is a bit of an aberration, Russo-German/Prussian conflict is far from inevitable. Russia and Prussia have had good relations and common enemies (Poland, Sweden) before, and they could end up being 2/3s of a restored 3 Emperor's League with the Habsburgs that functions like a reactionary monarchist Warsaw Pact.

 

[jerseyguy]

Will Russia end up promoting monarchism around the world instead of communism? It would be an interesting reversal to see Russia backing the Arab monarchies instead of siding with republican Arab nationalists OTL.

Without fascism and communism, the world could have way more monarchies around in the 21st century. Serbia, Montenegro, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania might all remain monarchies ITTL. This is the current Romanov heir btw, Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

I can't see a Prussia detached from Germany lasting except by the barrel of a gun. To partition Germany OTL required the allies to be committed to unconditional surrender by Germany and a very very bloody push across the continent. Meanwhile during WWI, when the Germans realized they had no chance they sued for peace before the war could reach their territory.

Why wouldn't the Germans just do something similar TTL? When they realize the war is lost, they sue for peace to prevent destruction in Germany proper. They also end up with the advantage that the allies are limited in how harsh their imposed terms are, because if the Germans reject them it'd mean a return to war (something civilians won't like).

It's one thing to detach East Prussia (Grand Duchy of Prussia? Kingdom of East Prussia?) because East Prussia is fairly easy to occupy from a Russian perspective. It's another matter to push all the way to Berlin.



Regarding the idea of Russia trying to protect and promote conservative monarchism like it did Communism OTL... maybe? I could see the Russians palling up with Ethiopia maybe. King Kigeli V of Rwanda converted to Catholicism in his teens and his father Mutara III Rudahigwa was the first Rwandan King to convert to Catholicism in 1943, so perhaps they could end up taking the Orthodox route TTL. Tsarist Russia could maybe promote Orthodox Christianity as a means of undermining colonial regimes (the patriarch by country model being somewhat compatible with anticolonial nationalism perhaps).


Sheikh Khazal might be able to court Moscow for support TTL. A Russian-aligned Khuzestan would be a nightmare for the British.

 

[sloreck]

What will happen to the Jews under the Tsar - nothing good. Antisemitism in Russia was at least "officially" off the table under the communists, it was still there strongly and widely but it was not official government policy (mostly). The impetus to leave Russia will be greater than OTL, and the one the the Russian/Tsarist government was in favor of was Jews leaving, so unlike the USSR getting out was straightforward, even if it might mean leaving assets behind with limited ability to expatriate money. Non-Christians including Muslims are going to have a very hard time, non-Orthodox Christians still second class.

 

[Pelranius]

You're referring to Crown Prince Wilhelm, the eldest son of Kaiser Wilhelm II, right? He would be old enough to rule, and his political views don't seem very favorable towards democracy (likely a positive in Petrograd's view). He joined the Stalhelm in 1931, and contemplated running for President against Hindenburg in 1933. He supported Hitler's rise to power after his father forbade him from running for president.
It depends how much independence Prussia has from Moscow, and how much influence the alt-Kaiser would actually have. He could actually be controlling an independent state's government, or he could be a figurehead like Puyi was. Some combination of his advisers, the military, Junkers, industrialists, and a foreign power (Russia, in this case) could end up having the actual power.

The Czar could restoring an independent Prussian state in Brandenburg, Silesia, Pomerania, East + West Prussia, and Prussian areas of the Polish partition, roughly Prussia's border's circa 1815. ATL Russia aiming to reversing about a century's worth of territorial changes would be less radical than the OTL's popular transfers that reversed about a millennium of migration patterns.

The last century's is a bit of an aberration, Russo-German/Prussian conflict is far from inevitable. Russia and Prussia have had good relations and common enemies (Poland, Sweden) before, and they could end up being 2/3s of a restored 3 Emperor's League with the Habsburgs that functions like a reactionary monarchist Warsaw Pact.

I was thinking of August Wilhelm, who was Kaiser Bill's fourth son, and actually joined the Nazi Party and the SA, possibly hoping that Hitler would place him on the throne.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_August_Wilhelm_of_Prussia