Thing is, NEP was abolished in 1928, and the Soviet economy continued for another six decades. Yes, the return to some sort of currency makes sense, but there was more to NEP than that. Trotsky is often assumed to have gone straight to what came after NEP, and while I am not certain about that, I find it more likely than him adopting the whole NEP package.Because it didn't work IOTL. Workers were going on strikes, and in 1921 it was a general strike. Hence NEP.
Well, badly. They'll get pushed back, lose ground. But by far not as badly as WW2 - TTL's Germans neither want to conquer and colonise Russia, nor can they spare the means to dedicate much resources to the effort, nor is the leadership as deluded as Hitler was. OHL wanted to push Russia out of the war, and to extract resources for the war effort. I'd expect them to cut through Bolshevik "defenses" like a hot knife through butter, comparable to Operation Faustschlag. Ukraine might indeed be one target, and Petrograd is the other. But - at some point, they will stop. If the Bolsheviks don't throw in the towel, maybe they attempt to get to the Caucasus' oil fields.How is the war going to go for the Bolsheviks? Especially if it means fighting something of a two-front war with the Whites? I'm not sure you can count on them lasting that long.
NEP was abolished, money were not. Hard lessons learnt.Thing is, NEP was abolished in 1928, and the Soviet economy continued for another six decades
Yes, agreed on money. Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page that the collapse of the very first communist structures does not mean Russia has to go through a NEP phase.NEP was abolished, money were not. Hard lessons learnt.
How is the war going to go for the Bolsheviks? Especially if it means fighting something of a two-front war with the Whites? I'm not sure you can count on them lasting that long.
But how strong a "front" will the Whites be putting up to the east of the Bolshevik-led government when unlike OTL, the Czech Legion is working with the Reds instead of Whites, Socialist parties are not turning coat against Bolsheviks, and there's no Entente supplies being fed to White forces through the Pacific, Arctic and Black Sea ports? Here Whites will mostly be coming fr''
"We offered them honest peace. They tried to enslave us instead. Svolochi."It's a good point. But the counter here is that one of the Bolsheviks' big promises was a prompt end to the war. Continuing to fight on is going to change the internal politics of the Russia considerably, and to the detriment of the Bolsheviks, who have now repeated the broken promises of Kerensky.
With the Bolsheviks now assuming the mantle of defenders of Russia against German aggression, the vast majority of the officer corps and patriotic political parties (SRs, Kadets, etc.) will remain on their side at least until the war ends
The Volunteer Army under Alekseev and Kornilov was formed to "withstand the German-Bolshevist onslaught". They considered Bolsheviks to be paid agents of the German General staff.White organising in the South had allready started by November 1917, (Old Style) under General Mikhail Alekseev. In December 1917, General Lavr Kornilov had taken over the military command of the newly named Volunteer Army until his death in April 1918. So by March 1918, the South was allready on fire.
The russian burgeoisie and what's left of the old feudal nobility would rather cooperate with the Germans (and even accept German dominance), than accept a socialist Russia. True, both would be undesireable to the ruling class, yet German overlordship would definetly be the lesser evil compared to expropriation by the soviet power.
The Volunteer Army under Alekseev and Kornilov was formed to "withstand the German-Bolshevist onslaught". They considered Bolsheviks to be paid agents of the German General staff.
It's a good point. But the counter here is that one of the Bolsheviks' big promises was a prompt end to the war. Continuing to fight on is going to change the internal politics of the Russia considerably, and to the detriment of the Bolsheviks, who have now repeated the broken promises of Kerensky.
At that point, I don't have a really good sense of who might be poised to take advantage of that moment and overthrow Lenin. If the Whites take power back, it would have to be because of greater infighting and weakened morale on the part of the Bolsheviks. The Cheka and other instruments of Bolshevik power are also going to be weaker with more of their manpower committed to fighting Germany.
Plus, conditions on the ground might be different in Ukraine and other areas closer to the front than they would be in the interior of Russia.
The Czechoslovak Legion might not turn against soviet power (at least not as early as it did OTL)
Most of the Right-SRs would defect to the Whites (something akin to the KOMUCH would still be founded, though be it a few months later than in OTL).
Why would they at all, ever? Austria-Hungary is their mortal enemy.
I see them more likely see them being decimated and worse through combat and pursuit.
This I don't get at all, either.
The people willing to serve Germans (except for under duress for very short periods) will be somewhere in the middle of Kadets and rightward only. No Socialists..
I didn't finish my sentence last night. Basically I don't see the potential for the Whites to mushroom in the Asian or Arctic part of the Russian Empire, but some Whites could grow in the south and west under the aegis of the CP. Unlike some other posters I don't think *all* the Whites of significance will be too patriotic purist to not side with the Germans. This could get most dangerous to the Bolesheviks if the Germans link up with the Don Cossacks.
What's going to prevent Boleshevik organization and cells from existing underground throughout European Russia? What and who is going to displace them from their Asian strongholds like Tashkent? The Germans only have from February to July to monkey around in Russia before they are rapidly, rapidly thinning out to plug holes elsewhere.
The whites called the Bolsheviks and Left-SRs a lot of things. "German Agents", "Jewish Infiltrators", etc. Doesn't change the fact that the Volunteer Army had allready formed in late 1917, and actively fought the Red Army while the soviet power was still at war with Germany.
To quote from Wikipedia:
"The first attempt to regain power from the Bolsheviks was made by the Kerensky-Krasnov uprising in October 1917. It was supported by the Junker Mutiny in Petrograd but was quickly put down by the Red Guard, notably including the Latvian Rifle Division.
The initial groups that fought against the Communists were local Cossack armies that had declared their loyalty to the Provisional Government. Kaledin of the Don Cossacks and General Grigory Semenov of the Siberian Cossacks were prominent among them. The leading Tsarist officers of the Imperial Russian Army also started to resist. In November, General Mikhail Alekseev, the Tsar's Chief of Staff during the First World War, began to organize the Volunteer Army in Novocherkassk. Volunteers of this small army were mostly officers of the old Russian army, military cadets and students. In December 1917 Alekseev was joined by General Lavr Kornilov, Denikin and other Tsarist officers who had escaped from the jail, where they had been imprisoned following the abortive Kornilov affair just before the Revolution. At the beginning of December 1917, groups of volunteers and Cossacks captured Rostov."
Now don't get me wrong, the main reason the soviet government agreed to the harsh peace terms was the fact that their armies were literally melting against the Germans (and because Petrograd could not be defended for long afterwards). However, the Volunteer Army and various Cossack units were allready fighting the Red Army in the South, aswell.
I'm thinking that I need to expand the scope of the alt-civil war here: I think you're right that the Whites would not be greatly empowered here, especially with the Reds doing a better job of claiming 'patriotism.' But I don't know if that results in a Bolshevik position overall, because it means more chaotic opposition from multiple sides, including internal anti-war factions, and of course, the Central Powers and their allies.
I think this is where we're going to see a big change: now in charge of the war, Bolshevism itself is going to be in a much weaker position. That's not to say that Marxists themselves will be worse off for it, though I think fewer of the revolutionary groups in general are going to side with Lenin/Trotsky, especially outside of Russia and ethnic-Russian areas.
As far as the details go, I really have no idea, but I think Lenin is going to struggle to keep the army fed and loyal in the scenario where the war continues, and if the army does TOO well, then it's a rival power within Russia that presents a threat.
So IOTL, Lenin was able to unify various Bolshevik leaders against the two anti-peace positions - Trotsky's "no war, no peace" and Bukharin's "revolutionary war". In this case, let's say Lenin has a stroke and is incapacitated in January 1918. As a result, the Bolsheviks end up narrowly embracing a position of delaying the Germans at Brest for as long as possible while building a new Red Army to re-enter the war. Trotsky (Foreign Affairs Commissar at the time) reaches out to the Entente in mid-January asking for armaments and military support, as he did in March 1918 IOTL. Over the course of the next few months a sizable Entente buildup occurs, and by September you have 20,000+ Entente troops in Northwest Russia fighting alongside the Red Army.
The Germans repudiate the December armistice in February and pause at about where they halted IOTL when they realize that the Bolsheviks have no intention of negotiating further. The German forces in the East were incapable of managing what they held IOTL and rushing deeper into Russia only complicates the logistics of occupation. I could see Germany trying to occupy Petrograd, though IOTL the option was dismissed in summer 1918 for being undesirable (Lots more Russians to manage) and infeasible due to the manpower requirements.
The two biggest immediate changes I see are that the Entente recognizes the Bolsheviks by summer 1918 for political expediency's sake, with the royal family going into exile in Britain, and the worst of the Civil War is largely butterflied for the moment. With the Bolsheviks now assuming the mantle of defenders of Russia against German aggression, the vast majority of the officer corps and patriotic political parties (SRs, Kadets, etc.) will remain on their side at least until the war ends, giving the Bolsheviks much of 1918 to consolidate power and receive a major equipment boost from the Entente.
Also, Trotsky at Versailles sounds fun.