So IOTL, Lenin was able to unify various Bolshevik leaders against the two anti-peace positions - Trotsky's "no war, no peace" and Bukharin's "revolutionary war". In this case, let's say Lenin has a stroke and is incapacitated in January 1918. As a result, the Bolsheviks end up narrowly embracing a position of delaying the Germans at Brest for as long as possible while building a new Red Army to re-enter the war. Trotsky (Foreign Affairs Commissar at the time) reaches out to the Entente in mid-January asking for armaments and military support, as he did in March 1918 IOTL. Over the course of the next few months a sizable Entente buildup occurs, and by September you have 20,000+ Entente troops in Northwest Russia fighting alongside the Red Army.
The Germans repudiate the December armistice in February and pause at about where they halted IOTL when they realize that the Bolsheviks have no intention of negotiating further. The German forces in the East were incapable of managing what they held IOTL and rushing deeper into Russia only complicates the logistics of occupation. I could see Germany trying to occupy Petrograd, though IOTL the option was dismissed in summer 1918 for being undesirable (Lots more Russians to manage) and infeasible due to the manpower requirements.
The two biggest immediate changes I see are that the Entente recognizes the Bolsheviks by summer 1918 for political expediency's sake, with the royal family going into exile in Britain, and the worst of the Civil War is largely butterflied for the moment. With the Bolsheviks now assuming the mantle of defenders of Russia against German aggression, the vast majority of the officer corps and patriotic political parties (SRs, Kadets, etc.) will remain on their side at least until the war ends, giving the Bolsheviks much of 1918 to consolidate power and receive a major equipment boost from the Entente.
Also, Trotsky at Versailles sounds fun.
The Germans repudiate the December armistice in February and pause at about where they halted IOTL when they realize that the Bolsheviks have no intention of negotiating further. The German forces in the East were incapable of managing what they held IOTL and rushing deeper into Russia only complicates the logistics of occupation. I could see Germany trying to occupy Petrograd, though IOTL the option was dismissed in summer 1918 for being undesirable (Lots more Russians to manage) and infeasible due to the manpower requirements.
The two biggest immediate changes I see are that the Entente recognizes the Bolsheviks by summer 1918 for political expediency's sake, with the royal family going into exile in Britain, and the worst of the Civil War is largely butterflied for the moment. With the Bolsheviks now assuming the mantle of defenders of Russia against German aggression, the vast majority of the officer corps and patriotic political parties (SRs, Kadets, etc.) will remain on their side at least until the war ends, giving the Bolsheviks much of 1918 to consolidate power and receive a major equipment boost from the Entente.
Also, Trotsky at Versailles sounds fun.