The Sixth Party System in American Politics (1976-2012)

vultan

TNF, can I just ask one thing? Your timeline is great so far, absolutely love it, but please don't make it just turn into a Democrat-wank. Changing the faces of both the parties is something interesting, and it's something I'm going to do to a small extent in my timeline, but don't just make the GOP a bunch of neocon/libertarian/whatever-they-may-turn-into strawmen. It's all about nuance.

Keep it coming, sir.:)
 

TNF

vultan said:
TNF, can I just ask one thing? Your timeline is great so far, absolutely love it, but please don't make it just turn into a Democrat-wank. Changing the faces of both the parties is something interesting, and it's something I'm going to do to a small extent in my timeline, but don't just make the GOP a bunch of neocon/libertarian/whatever-they-may-turn-into strawmen. It's all about nuance.

Keep it coming, sir.:)
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Oh don't worry about that. Humphrey has pretty much finished out the Democratic reform agenda, so Democrats are going to be pretty short on filling out actual policy for awhile. They'll just be running on the Fair Society for awhile, sorta like the Democrats did after FDR died. They'll start to emphasize environmental protection and gay rights a lot more, so that'll give the Republicans an opening.

As for the GOP, things are going to change pretty quickly. The 1980 Presidential Election update will be up very soon, and (I hope I'm not giving away too much here, but it won't be pretty for the GOP, if you can imagine that) the Republicans will try and develop a new strategy for taking the White House. One hint on that: It'll be more Nixon and less Reagan.

So at what point will we stop having heard of the politicians?
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Around the 1990s, when the parties fully settle into the new realignment, we'll see some figures that didn't get very prominent IOTL. A bit of a teaser, but here's the Republican Presidential field for 1988:

*Governor George Deukmeijan of California
*Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
*Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont
*Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah
*Former Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina
*Governor Bob Martinez of Florida
 

MrHuman

TNF said:
Around the 1990s, when the parties fully settle into the new realignment, we'll see some figures that didn't get very prominent IOTL. A bit of a teaser, but here's the Republican Presidential field for 1988:

*Governor George Deukmeijan of California
*Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
*Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont
*Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah
*Former Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina
*Governor Bob Martinez of Florida
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So I assume you're making Thompson Governor earlier, because I can't see someone with well under a year in office (at his announcement date) running for President.

Jeffords must be elected to the Senate earlier, because IOTL he was elected in '88. So ITTL he probably wouldn't have that much experience either.

Helms loses re-election at some point: Hooray!

Martinez would also have been in office for well under a year.
 

Broader Liberty

So much awesomeness. So how are these national economic plans implemented/enforced? Greater use of industry specific tax breaks, direct funding and grants, state sponsored research into targeted areas?

Its certainly going to be interesting seeing an America which will be somewhat comfortable and maybe even expectant of Presidential candidates presenting explicit visions for the economy rather than vague niceties that's very difficult for them to actually do anything about.
 

TNF

Broader Liberty said:
So much awesomeness. So how are these national economic plans implemented/enforced? Greater use of industry specific tax breaks, direct funding and grants, state sponsored research into targeted areas?

Its certainly going to be interesting seeing an America which will be somewhat comfortable and maybe even expectant of Presidential candidates presenting explicit visions for the economy rather than vague niceties that's very difficult for them to actually do anything about.
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For the most part, everything you've mentioned. More of that will be discussed in the next update, which is coming...in about five minutes. I've also done yet another revision of 1976 with some...interesting...results.

But for a bit of a teaser, I'll go ahead and tell you who the first post-Fair Society Republican President is going to be: Dick Thornburgh (R-PA) elected in...well you'll have to figure that one out for yourself. ;)
 
Plumber

Plumber

Well you've ninja'd a fair bit of my Truman '74 TL :eek: Humphrey was the last national Democrat in the Truman / LBJ mold. I don't think the Democrats would gain seats in 1978 though I could see them losing only a bit.

What happens to copyright and patent laws?
 

TNF

Plumber said:
Well you've ninja'd a fair bit of my Truman '74 TL :eek: Humphrey was the last national Democrat in the Truman / LBJ mold. I don't think the Democrats would gain seats in 1978 though I could see them losing only a bit.

What happens to copyright and patent laws?
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Copyrights and patents will be discussed further in the update after the one I have coming that covers the 1980 Presidential Election. There are going to be quite a few new faces in Congress on the Democratic side, if that gives you any tip off for 1978. By the early eighties though, the GOP will be getting their act back together well enough to fight some of the Humphrey administration's more grandiose schemes.

Here's a little alteration to 1976, complete with a revised information box and electoral map:


That moderate support, however, was easier sought than gained. Immediately after Reagan’s nomination and the selection of Schweiker as the Vice Presidential nominee, a group of liberal Republicans with more than a few moderates in tow left the convention hall with plans of their own. Declaring that ‘Reagan will lead the Republican Party down the path of defeat’ and that ‘his candidacy risks the entire structure of the GOP as a modern party, looking forward and not behind’, the dissenters formally called on President Ford to seek another term as President as an Independent; Ford responded shortly thereafter with a simple ‘No’, noting that the Reagan campaign had won the nomination fairly and squarely at the convention floor and that ‘he did not want to run the risk of giving the Democrats unchecked power in the White House, the House, and the Senate’. Although Ford made it clear enough, his lack of enthusiasm in campaigning for the Republican nominee, combined with a conceited effort by the organizers of the ‘Draft Ford’ committee to launch a national write-in campaign threw yet another wedge in the brewing interparty conflict between the Republican liberals and moderates and Republican conservatives.

Although pundits at first predicted a close race between Humphrey and Reagan, but as the race developed and the economy failed to pick up (combined with Reagan’s poor performance in the first televised presidential debates in sixteen years), Humphrey came out ahead. With the write-in campaign for President Ford on behalf of moderate to liberal Republicans netting the incumbent 6% of the popular vote (leaving Reagan with 41% and allowing a bare majority for Humphrey of 50.7%), but allowed Humphrey a rather lopsided victory in the Electoral College of 332-206. The Democrats would pick up a seat in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, increasing the party’s overall majority and allowing President Humphrey to enter the White House with the greatest Democratic majority since 1965.

genusmap.php


The strength of the anti-Reagan forces helps Humphrey win in Vermont, making him the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964.

And here's the (revised) information box for 1976. I'll do ones for the midterms if you guys really, really want 'em. ;)

1976electionbox2.jpg
 

vultan

Hmm... I kind of doubt, even with vote splitting, that the Democrats would take Vermont in this era.

Otherwise, good stuff.
 

TNF

1980: Part II

The Congressional elections of 1978 seemed to affirm the Fair Society. The Democrats picked up 15 seats in the House of Representatives and gained 5 new seats in the Senate (picking off liberal Republicans like Chuck Percy, Ed Brooke, and Cliff Case and winning two seats in the South, defeating John Tower and winning an open seat in Virginia), expanding the House majority of the Democratic Party to 307 seats and giving the Democrats 66 seats in the Senate.

U.S. House of Representatives elections, 1978
Democratic Party: 307 (+15)
Republican Party: 128 (-15)

U.S. Senate elections, 1978
State Incumbent Party Result Opposing Candidates
AL John Sparkman D Retired; D Hold Howell Heflin (D),94%
AL Maryon P. Allen D Retired; D Hold Donald Stewart (D),55%
AK Ted Stevens R Re-elected, 75%
AR K. Hodges D Retired; D Hold David Pryor (D), 76%
CO Floyd Haskell D Re-elected, 58%
DE Joe Biden D Re-elected, 58%
GA Sam Nunn D Re-elected, 83%
ID James McClure R Re-elected, 68%
IL Chuck Percy R Defeated; D Gain Alex Seith (D),53%
IA Dick Clark D Re-elected, 51%
KS James Pearson R Retired; R Hold N. Kassebaum (R),53%
KY W. Huddleston D Re-elected, 61%
LA B. Johnston D Re-elected in primary
ME W. Hathaway D Defeated; R Gain William Cohen (R),56%
MA Ed Brooke R Defeated; D Gain Michael Dukakis (D),55%
MI Robert Griffin R Defeated; D Gain Carl Levin (D), 52%
MN Joseph Karth* D Retired; D Hold W. Anderson (D), 61%
MN Walter Mondale D Re-elected; 56%
MS James Eastland D Retired; R Gain Thad Cochran (R), 45%
MT Paul Hatfield D Retired; D Hold Max Baucus (D), 55%
NE Carl Curtis R Retired; D Gain J. James Exon (D), 67%
NH Thomas McIntyre D Re-elected; 50%
NJ Clifford Case R Retired; D Gain Bill Bradley (D), 55%
NM Pete Domenici R Re-elected; 53%
NC Jesse Helms R Re-elected; 54%
OK Dewey Bartlett R Defeated; D Gain David Boren (D), 65%
OR Mark Hatfield R Re-elected; 61%
RI Claiborne Pell D Re-elected; 75%
SC S. Thurmond R Re-elected; 55%
SD J. Abourezk D Re-elected; 66%
TN Howard Baker R Re-elected; 55%
TX John Tower R Defeated; D Gain Bob Kreuger (D), 49%
VA William Scott R Retired; D Gain Andrew Miller (D), 50%
WV J. Randolph D Re-elected; 50%
WY Cliff Hansen R Retired; R Hold Alan Simpson (R), 62%

Democratic Party: 66 (+5)
Republican Party: 33 (-5)
Independent: 1 (+0)

*Karth was appointed by Governor Wendell Anderson to replace Hubert Humphrey following his ascension to the Presidency.

Despite Governor Reagan’s loss to President Humphrey in 1976, he still had a rather wide base of support within the Republican Party and was considered a contender going into the 1980 Presidential Election in spite of his advanced age. Along with Reagan, a number of Republicans announced that they would seek the GOP nomination to go head to head with President Humphrey in 1980, among them: Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, the Reverend Pat Robertson of Virginia, Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, Senator Barry Goldwater of Arziona, Former Governor Jim Rhodes of Ohio, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, and Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut.

The Iowa caucus would be a victory for Governor Reagan, but the strong showing of Senator Dole, who articulated a ‘new Republicanism’ that was radically different than either the boilerplate conservatism of Reagan or the moderate, pro-business stance of Howard Baker made him a real force within the upcoming primaries; Ronald Reagan again only achieved a limited victory over Dole in New Hampshire; Massachusetts went for Ronald Reagan while Senator Dole achieved his first primary victory in Vermont; victory in South Carolina (aided by the withdrawal of Howard Baker from the race) breathed new life into Pat Robertson’s campaign, while Governor Reagan carried Alabama; Georgia would go for Ronald Reagan, as would Florida. In Connecticut, Senator Weicker carried his home state while in Illinois, home state hero Ronald Reagan managed to win a sizeable victory; ‘Comeback Kid’ was the words written in the New York Times headline about Dole’s victories in both Kansas and Wisconsin on April 1 – this race was ‘far from over’ in Senator Dole’s words. Finishing off the month of April was Ronald Reagan with a victory in Louisiana and Senator Weicker with a victory in Pennsylvania.
The crucial May primaries ultimately set the tone for the upcoming general election. Senator Bob Dole carried Nebraska and Indiana; Ronald Reagan won primaries in Idaho, Oregon, Michigan, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky; Pat Robertson failed to carry any states and withdrew from the race, endorsing Ronald Reagan for President; Senator Barry Goldwater likewise failed to carry any state and dropped out in favor of Reagan, as did Jim Rhodes and Orrin Hatch; Senator Weicker did not win any states, but stayed in the race to remain a viable option for moderate Republicans upset with the conservatism of Ronald Reagan and the ‘new Republicanism’ of Bob Dole.

In June, the final primaries were held. Reagan would carry California, Mississippi, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Ohio; Senator Dole won the states of South Dakota, Montana, and New Mexico; Senator Weicker won only the state of Rhode Island.

Going into the Convention, Ronald Reagan would have enough delegates to be nominated for President a second time. Senator Dole and Senator Weicker both withdrew from the race prior to the Republicans’ meeting in Detroit, and Ronald Reagan was nominated to face off against Humphrey for a second time. Reagan’s speech to the convention attacked every bit of the Humphrey administration’s program as ‘the stuff of Soviet Russia’; Reagan promised tax and spending cuts and a balanced budget. He chose as his running-mate former CIA Director George H.W. Bush of Texas. Liberal and moderate Republicans, unlike 1976, decided for their part to stay put and without any of the aborted third party organizers left (Percy, Case, and Brooke had all been defeated in the midterm elections), they had nowhere else to go but Hubert Humphrey.

President Humphrey faced no challenge for re-nomination and would be re-nominated for the Presidency in New York City with First Lady Muriel Humphrey at his side. Humphrey’s speech to the convention focused on what the Fair Society had done and emphasized that the work was ‘not yet completed’. Humphrey lashed out at Ronald Reagan for ‘wanting to put millions of you back on the unemployment rolls’. Perhaps the most memorable speech of the convention came from Senator Jacob Javits who had only recently announced that he would be running for re-election as an Independent (with Democratic support); Javits quoted the Republican nominee in reverse, saying that, “I haven’t left the Republican Party…the Republicans left me.”

President Humphrey won a second term as President with 58% of the popular vote while simultaneously winning the largest victory in the Electoral College in American history (534-4, with Reagan winning only the state of Utah). The Democrats won an additional 34 seats in the House of Representatives (putting the Democratic majority now on par with the commanding majorities the Democrats held in Congress during the 1930s) and gained an additional two seats in the Senate (defeating conservative icon Barry Goldwater in Arizona and picking up 1976 Veep nominee Schweiker’s seat; two pro-labor Southern Democrats, Bill Gunter in Florida and Zell Miller in Georgia, also managed victories in their respective challenges to Democratic incumbents and went on to win the general election). Senator Jacob Javits won re-election as an Independent with backing of Democrats and the Liberal Party of New York with 44% of the vote over his Republican and Democratic opponents.

With much of his reform agenda already enacted, the question would now be posed as to what to do with the fruits of President Humphrey’s labor. As Governor Reagan gave his concession speech and conservative activists began plotting their next moves, the President’s strategists began cooking up a second phase of the Fair Society.

U.S. Presidential Election, 1980

genusmap.php


U.S. House of Representatives elections, 1980

Democratic Party: 341 (+34)
Republican Party: 114 (-34)

U.S. Senate elections, 1980

State Incumbent Party Result Opposing Candidate
AL Donald Stewart D Re-elected; 50%
AK Mike Gravel D Re-elected; 53%
AZ Barry Goldwater R Defeated; D Gain Bill Schulz (D), 49%
AR Dale Bumpers D Re-elected; 59%
CA Alan Cranston D Re-elected; 56%
CO Gary Hart D Re-elected; 50%
CT A. Ribicoff D Retired; D Hold Chris Dodd (D), 56%
FL Richard Stone D Retired; D Hold Bill Gunter (D), 51%
GA Herman Talmadge D Retired; D Hold Zell Miller (D), 50%
HI Daniel Inouye D Re-elected; 77%
ID Frank Church D Re-elected; 49%
IL Adlai Stevenson D Re-elected; 56%
IN Birch Bayh D Re-elected; 53%
IA John Culver D Re-elected; 53%
KS Bob Dole R Re-elected; 63%
KY Wendell Ford D Re-elected; 65%
LA Russell Long D Re-elected; 100%
MD Charles Mathias R Re-elected; 66%
MO Thomas Eagleton D Re-elected; 52%
NV Paul Laxalt R Re-elected; 58%
NH John Durkin D Re-elected; 52%
NY Jacob Javits I Re-elected; 44%
NC Robert Morgan D Re-elected; 50%
ND Milton Young R Retired; R Hold Mark Andrews (R), 70%
OH John Glenn D Re-elected; 68%
OK Henry Bellmon R Retired; R Hold Don Nickles (R), 53%
OR Bob Packwood R Re-elected; 52%
PA R. Schweiker R Retired; D Gain Pete Flaherty (D), 50%
SC Ernest Hollings D Re-elected; 70%
SD George McGovern D Re-elected; 58%
UT Jake Garn R Re-elected; 73%
VT Patrick Leahy D Re-elected; 49%
WA Warren Magnuson D Re-elected; 54%
WI Gaylord Nelson D Re-elected; 50%

Democratic Party: 68 (+2)
Republican Party: 30 (-3)
Independent: 2 (+1)

1980electionbox.jpg
 
Plumber

Plumber

I like me a good midterms box. :)

Heh, I like how Reagan is viewed as a poor debater, which is not true... except in comparison to Humphrey.

EDIT: Ooooh, Reagan got creamed. What happened with foreign affairs though?
 

TNF

RogueBeaver said:
Fantastic TNF. What's the congressional balance of power?
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As of 1981, the Liberals have an edge over Congressional conservatives, mostly due to an edge thanks to the Watergate babies and the 'Fair Societans' entering Congress in '78 and '80. That won't last, though. Especially when conservatives manage to redefine conservatism in a distinctly 'Gaullist' fashion for an American audience.
 

TNF

RogueBeaver said:
I can make a midterms box if TNF will allow it.
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Go right ahead :)

EDIT: Ooooh, Reagan got creamed. What happened with foreign affairs though?
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It's been pretty boring, really. ITTL the Iranian Revolution gets butterflied because the Shah isn't prodded by a certain someone (the VP ITTL) to allow for protests against the regime. Humphrey was a consistent advocate of containment IOTL, not Carter's neoliberalism, so I figure he wouldn't want to shake the boat too much. He does of course begin switching gears late in his first term, under the influence of UN Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick and Senator Jackson. Kirkpatrick is going to be Secretary of State as of his second term, and that, along with a more foreign policy oriented second term will make for a much more confrontational Humphrey administration.

Let's not forget that Carter is the frontrunner by anyone's estimation for 1984 (he will have challengers, you can bet on that), and judging from his OTL record, TTL's Cold War might not end so 'cool'...
 
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