The Second Korean War - With A Twist

Sunday, October 4, 2020

Good morning and welcome to the BBC’s live blog on the ongoing Korea crisis, bringing you all the latest news.

I’m Oliver Rosenbaum and I’ll be bringing you up to date with diplomatic developments for the next few hours.

It’s another day of acute tensions as the world awaits a formal response from China after Korea again reaffirmed support for the ongoing pro-Korea protests in China’s Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. China has accused Korea and the United States of “fomenting dissent aimed at the destruction of the People’s Republic.” The protests are part of the wider so-called Chinese Autumn pro-democracy protests taking place across the country amid the global economic slowdown.

As China’s military build-up on the Korean border continues with an estimated 200,000 troops now deployed, the Russian defence minister Vladimir Sobolev has said he is “optimistic” that a Chinese incursion could be prevented.

Sobolev, who is due to meet his Chinese counterpart Li Qing in the coming days, told the BBC he was “more optimistic than not” that an invasion could be stopped. Russia has walked a difficult tightrope throughout the crisis as it tries not to antagonise its vital Chinese trading partner while remaining on the same diplomatic page as its fellow EU members.

He was speaking after the US reaffirmed Korea’s right to offer political asylum to Chinese-Korean dissidents. China has severely limited air traffic to Korea from the Yanbian prefecture in an effort to prevent what Beijing calls “terrorists” from seeking refuge.

Yesterday the US State Department warned that the economic and political relationship between the United States and China will be “devastated” if China attacks Korea.

Japan’s ambassador to Washington, Hirokazu Kishimoto, appeared to endorse this position, citing previous comments from Japanese prime minister Toshio Ino and foreign minister Sawato Inaba that “nothing will be off the table.” He refused to confirm or deny that a partial mobilisation of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces was imminent.

The US yesterday delivered a written response to Beijing’s maximalist demands from last month, which called for Korea to legally enshrine neutrality in its constitution and the withdrawal of American forces from the peninsula.

Chinese Chairman Zhang Lin was due to be briefed on the document, but his foreign minister has already given a big hint of the Chinese response. Chi Zemin said:

If the United States and the Republic of Korea continue their aggressive course, Beijing is prepared to take any necessary retaliatory measures. We won’t allow our constructive efforts to be drowned by endless deflection.”

Approximately 20,000 American troops are stationed in Korea. Under the terms of the 1997 Sino-American Security Declaration they are not permitted within one hundred miles of the Chinese border. Nonetheless if hostilities were to break out it is certain that the American forces would be directly involved. Fears of an escalation towards nuclear conflict have regularly been raised internationally.

Meanwhile, Korean police are searching for a woman believed to have been a Chinese intelligence agent within the Korean defence ministry who stabbed two security guards before fleeing. The incident took place early this morning at the Ministry of National Defence headquarters in Seoul’s Yongsan district. It is not clear what the exact circumstances of the incident are.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Korean police arrest intelligence agent over stabbing

Korean police have detained a Ministry of National Defence employee who stabbed two security guards at the ministry headquarters in Seoul, killing both, the interior minister said in a Wren post.

Here are the details from Reuters:

Two security officers were killed by the individual, who was allegedly armed with a kitchen knife.

Interior Minister Kim Jae-Yun named the attacker as Tongbang Hee-Jin and said she would “bear the strictest responsibility provided by law”.

Jae-Yun said a special commission would be set up to investigate all circumstances that could have led to the crime.

Deputy interior minister Hae Sang-Jun identified Hee-Jin as a Chinese spy who had been working within the defence ministry for several years. She had apparently attacked the two officers after they attempted to arrest her.

Sang-Jun said the inquiry would focus on how the attacker was able to gain her position: “First of all, the question of whether the security services properly examined the individual and identified her background will be studied,” Sang-Jun said.


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Sunday, October 4, 2020

India has told the United States it wants to see all sides involved in Korea remain calm and avoid increasing tension, Reuters has reported.

India’s Foreign Minister Ashish Srivastava and US Secretary of State Michelle Ogunbiyi spoke about tensions over Korea in a telephone today.

“We call on all parties to stay calm and refrain from doing things that agitate tensions and hype up the crisis,” Srivastava told Ogunbiyi, India’s foreign ministry said in a statement. "The world cannot afford a clash between nuclear powers."

The US State Department quoted Ogunbiyi as having “conveyed that de-escalation and diplomacy are the responsible way forward”.

India is a critical Chinese partner although it is widely expected that it would remain neutral in the event of any armed conflict. Chinese leader Zhang Lin is to meet the Indian president Kavita Vedha at the annual Sino-Indian Forum in Beijing on 12 October. Some analysts believe if an attack happens it would be after this date.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

If China invades Korea, how will it happen, where will it happen, and when will it happen? And how did international tensions ratchet up to this point in the first place?

The BBC’s Beijing correspondent Oscar Woodhull, visual projects editor John Kucheryavykh, and interactive journalist Paul Jefferson have put together a terrific guide to troop deployments with maps, satellite images, and the background to the current stand-off.

Here is one interesting detail:

A map released by Russian military intelligence in August showed a worst-case scenario: Chinese forces crossing the Korean border from the north and launching an amphibious assault on western Korea with paratroopers capturing the island of Jeju.

China would also be expected to seize control of the Yellow Sea which could necessitate targeting American as well as Korean military vessels.

Some aspects of the plan, such as offensives from the north, already appear possible. Others, such as an attack on Jeju, appear to assume a rapid defeat of the Korean military as maintaining forces on the island would be very difficult. And what of nuclear weapons? Would China be tempted to use them?

Click here to view the full interactive guide (requires Poseidon Multimedia)

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

“My heart is hurting. Why would China do this?” These are the words of Shen, a Chinese pro-democracy campaigner, surveying the wreckage of what was once his home in Longjing, in Yanbian prefecture, a mere seventeen miles from the Korean border.

He was talking to John Master, a BBC foreign correspondent, who has been reporting extensively from the region, where the Chinese government has most ferociously tried to suppress the ongoing dissent.

“I am Chinese and always will be,” says Shen. “That is why I protest – out of love for my country. I want better for it. I am not a terrorist or a foreign spy. But they have branded me this way. I fear terribly for what will become of our relationship with Korea. I think war is on the way. They think it will save them.”

John was expelled from China shortly after his report. Click here for John’s video report from the border on preparations by the Korean military for a potential Chinese attack. It’s also a powerful reminder of the scars that still linger from the first Korean War with minefields still not cleared and parts of the border still too dangerous to approach.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

The European Union’s chief diplomat Kurtashkin Mikhailovich has welcomed the US response to China’s security demands.

Writing on Wren, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy urged China to take the diplomatic path:

I welcome @SecOgunbiyi’s written response to China’s security proposals.

The diplomatic path offers the only lasting solution to the people of Korea and the people of the world.

I urge China to take it. The EU and the U.S. are united in our approach
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With the European Union having an extensive border with China due to Russia’s membership, there has been much speculation as to whether the bloc could be drawn into any armed conflict.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

"No positive reaction" from US to China’s main security question – Zemin

The United States has not given a positive response to China’s most important security question, Chinese foreign minister Chi Zemin has said.

The Chinese news agency Xinhua quotes Zemin as telling reporters in Beijing that there was “no positive reaction” on the main question.

On the main question in this document [from the US] there is no positive reaction. The main question is our clearly-stated position about the need for Korean neutrality in the interests of regional peace and the unacceptability of the deployment of American military units that could threaten the territory of the People’s Republic.”

Zemin is referring to the US government’s formal response on Wednesday to Beijing’s security demands set out last month.

Chairman Zhang Lin “will decide on China’s next steps with regard to the US and Korean responses to the security proposals,” Zemin is quoted as saying in a Reuters snap.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

"Good news" that China wants to talk – Korea’s Seung-Hoon

Korea has welcomed China’s offer to continue talks later this month as “good news” and a sign that Beijing wants a diplomatic solution to the current crisis.

Senior Chinese and Korean officials met on Wednesday in Tokyo with representatives of Japan and the United States. The four countries have agreed to meet again in two weeks time.

As Jiji Press reports, Korean Foreign Minister Kun Seung-Hoon said:

The good news is that advisers agreed to meet again in Tokyo in two weeks, which means that at least for the next two weeks, China is likely to remain on a diplomatic track.”

Nonetheless, he called for the United States to strengthen its military and defence cooperation with Seoul.

While I am a big fan of soft power, I’m afraid that this is really the time for hard power to be used.” China called the comments "irresponsible."

Seung-Hoon was speaking after a meeting with his Filipino counterpart Frederico Masangkay in Manila, as part of Korea’s continuing diplomatic outreach.

The Philippines are a stern US ally and embroiled in their own diplomatic row with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea. On Thursday the Korean government promised to continue fulfilling Filipino orders for military hardware despite the crisis. Korea is a key supplier of Filipino military equipment.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Beijing 'not optimistic' and 'won't rush' its response to US paper

Beijing has said there is room to continue talking to the United States, but “won’t rush” with its assessment of the response from Washington to its proposals to re-write the post cold-war security order in Asia.

The Chinese chairman’s spokeswoman Fang Xuefeng said it would take time for Beijing to review the US document, after Washington issued a formal response on Wednesday to Chinese demands for Korean neutrality and a rollback of American forces on the peninsula.

The BBC’s Beijing correspondent Oscar Woodhull has sent this quote from Xuefeng:

You heard what the American state secretary said yesterday: he was loud and clear about non-acceptance of the main concerns expressed by China. So there isn’t much reason to be optimistic. But I would still avoid any conceptual opinions.”

Here is a bit more via Reuters:

Based on what our colleagues said yesterday it’s absolutely clear that on the main categories outlined in those draft documents... we cannot say that our thoughts have been taken into account or that a willingness has been shown to take our concerns into account. But we won’t rush with our assessments.”

Speaking separately, China’s foreign minister Chi Zemin said there was a hope of dialogue on secondary issues, but the US had not given a positive reaction to China’s most important question, namely the neutrality of Korea.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Japan’s restrictive stance on deploying military forces abroad is causing consternation in Seoul and elsewhere in Asia, but the position has popular support among the Japanese population.


In a new poll published on Thursday morning, 89% of respondents supported not sending troops to help Korea protect itself against a Chinese attack. A widespread reason cited was anxiety about the potential for nuclear escalation. Lingering historical anti-Korean sentiment is also suspected to be behind the feelings. The numbers dropped to 58% in the event that China also directly attacked Japan.

Only 20% said they supported weapons exports and 21% declined to answer. Support for restricting the export of Japanese weapons to Korea was strongest among older voters but remained significant even among the young.

Japan has an extensive arms industry but has since the Second World War been largely hamstrung by its constitution from exporting weapons internationally. The anti-war constitution also prevents the deployment of Japanese forces abroad. The Japanese government has so far been evasive as to whether it would seek an alteration to this principle in the event of a Chinese attack on Korea.

Although Korea is itself a highly advanced country with a well equipped military, it is unlikely to be able to survive for long against a Chinese attack without foreign assistance. The United States is the only foreign nation expected to provide direct military help in the event of a conflict which could escalate to a nuclear exchange.

Japan’s defence minister, Kiyabu Kotaro, announced on Wednesday that Tokyo would supply Korea with 5,000 military helmets. He said the offer sent “a very clear signal: we are on your side”.

Ye Young-Nam, the mayor of Seoul and a former Olympic taekwondo champion, who previously lived in Japan, described the offer as a “joke” and said:

We have plenty of helmets. But Korea has ninety million people and China has one billion. Japan has a moral obligation to us, their neighbours whom they have so mistreated in the past, to help.”

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

A senior Chinese official has said a nuclear missile crisis between Beijing and Washington was unavoidable without measures to ensure restraint and predictability, Reuters reports.

Zhao Zexian, a senior Chinese foreign ministry official, said Beijing thought the United States was preparing to deploy short and intermediate range missiles to the Asia-Pacific region, according to the state-run China News Service.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Russia vows sanctions would cover oil if China invades Korea

Russia has warned that China faces a “reassessment of relations” if it invades Korea, including a potential shutdown of oil and natural gas supplies, the Associated Press reports.

We are willing to consider all tools at our disposal including energy supplies,” Foreign Minister Ryndina Alekseevna told the State Duma.

Her statement came soon after the US State Department said Russian oil and natural gas shipments to China should be shut down if China invades Korea.

Russia is the second largest supplier of oil to China after Saudi Arabia and the only one of significance whose transit is not vulnerable to being shut down by a naval blockade. Were Russia to limit or end supplies it could have a significant effect on the Chinese economy.

It is unclear whether the US would enforce a blockade of oil shipments to China from other countries. Experts suggest this could be achieved relatively easily by denying ships bound for China access to the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, the main shipping channel between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Such actions could throttle the Chinese economy – but the global economy would likely follow.

On Wednesday, Russia’s economy minister Korovin Savelievich acknowledged that if sanctions had to be deployed against China, the global economy would also suffer.

If there are to be sanctions, there will be none that won’t trigger a global recession.”

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

The Russian president Natalia Valerianovna will have a telephone conversation with Zhang Lin on Friday, the BBC’s Moscow correspondent Ivy-Rose Newman reports

Russia remains convinced that there is room for dialogue over the Korea crisis, and that talks could help get China into a concrete process of “de-escalation”.

Valerianovna’s call with the Chinese premier has two goals, the Russian government spokesman Leonid Valentinovich said. First, “to continue dialogue” and second, to “push China to clarify its position and the aim of [military] manoeuvring.” Valentinovich said Valerianovna “is at the heart of efforts towards de-escalation”.

The call is scheduled for 10.45am Moscow time.

Valerianovna has long approached international affairs with the conviction that she can open up dialogue by fostering personal ties and one-to-one relationships with tricky world leaders, including Lin, and that she has a power of persuasion. But she has acknowledged that “a conversation with China is always tricky”.

Valerianovna has yet to officially announce a bid for re-election in Russia’s presidential race next year and to launch her campaign. But her opponents have begun to seize on the Korea crisis to pressure the pro-European Valerianovna over Russia’s place on the international stage and to question her long-standing promise of a Russia that would be “powerful in the world by being powerful in the EU.”

Russian membership of the European Union has been a point of contention within the country since it began eight years ago in the aftermath of the Purple Revolution. Many on the political right have argued that it has “humiliated” Russia by forcing it to be a “lapdog” for Western geopolitical interests which don’t align with those of Russia. There have even been calls for Russia to side with China.

Denis Tolya, the presidential candidate for the right-wing One Russia Party, wrote in The Moscow Times that Russia must have a prominent seat at the table, and not leave it to the EU’s central leadership to decide the response to the crisis. “Where is Russia’s voice today?” asked the Communist party candidate Georgiy Makarov.

Leka Kulikova, the MEP and Valerianovna’s former Europe minister, said Valerianovna was engaged in two elements: “dialogue and diplomacy on one side and dissuasion on the other side”.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Korea is struggling to borrow on international capital markets because of borderline “hysteria” over a potential Chinese attack, an adviser to Korea’s president has told Reuters

Rim Yong-Sun, an aide to President Kwak Jin, told the news agency in Seoul that borrowing had become “not impossible, but far more difficult”.

He said:

In the context of a sharp increase in the degree of discussions around issues related to the security of Korea, which sometimes border on hysteria, the Republic’s opportunities for entering foreign capital markets are more limited.”

Under such conditions, he said, Korea had to secure its “financial cushion” through sources other than financial markets. He said Korea hoped to borrow $15bn from other countries, Asian and international institutions but that all current spending plans would be unaltered. “We expect the situation to pass and the economy to return to its regular health as a result.”

Korea has pursued a policy of expansionary fiscal spending under President Jin in an effort to stimulate the Korean economy out of a period of low growth. The debt-to-GDP ratio passed the 50% mark for the first time earlier this year and experts have warned that the political crisis could trigger a financial crisis as well. The possibility of contagion spreading to other Asian countries has been raised. Markets in Seoul have been making losses throughout the week amid the crisis and insurance premiums for shipping in the Yellow Sea have raised significantly according to Lloyds of London.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

China says war 'unacceptable' and hopes for further talks

China’s foreign ministry has said that Beijing is focused on a diplomatic solution to the crisis, saying war between China and Korea would be “unacceptable.”

“We have already repeatedly stated that our country does not intend to attack anyone. We consider even the thought of a war between our two peoples to be unacceptable,” said Zhou Xiuying, a spokesman for the ministry.

Meetings in Tokyo on Wednesday between Korean and Chinese representatives, together with Japanese and American officials, ended “without a result,” Xiuying said, but he added there were hopes that new talks in Tokyo in two weeks’ time will be productive.

Beijing has sought to downplay fears of a looming Chinese invasion, despite positioning troops on its border with Korea.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Investors and currency traders appear cautiously optimistic that the risk of imminent war has decreased, with the Chinese yuan being up 1.1% against the dollar on Thursday.

The yuan appeared to rebound following news out of the Yellow Sea this morning. The Chinese ministry of defence said Chinese naval forces would disperse or return to base once exercises were over next month.

China began moving vessels into the Yellow Sea, to Korea’s west, earlier this month to conduct military exercises, in a move that sharply increased fears of an invasion amid the simultaneous deployment of troops to Korea’s northern border.

Some military analysts have suggested China could launch amphibious landings to invade Korea from the west, as well as the north.

“At the conclusion of the inspection, military units and sub-units of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and People’s Liberation Army Air Force will return to ordinary duties,” the ministry said.

The so-called “Splendid Mountain” exercises are due to end around 1 November.

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Korea’s president welcomes 'constructive' talks with China

Korea’s president Kwak Jin has given a positive assessment of negotiations with China in Tokyo.

Senior officials from China, Korea, Japan, and the United States met in Tokyo on Wednesday, where they agreed to further talks in Tokyo again next month.

A statement issued by the Korean president’s office said:

The President of the Republic of Korea Kwak Jin positively assesses the fact of the meeting, its constructive nature, as well as the intention to continue meaningful talks [in] two weeks in Tokyo.”

Korea’s government, embroiled in a dispute with China over the status of the Yanbian prefecture for decades, has downplayed some reports of an imminent large-scale invasion by China. An adviser to Jin said on Thursday there was borderline “hysteria” about an attack.

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