The horse survives....in South America?

[Jon the Numbat]

The main problem I see here is how horses would reach South America from North America without changing in the process.

North American horses were animals adapted to the grand prairies and open grasslands. They were not woodland animals, so they would never venture south of Central Mexico. It can't be compared to South American camelids, because they evolved from minor camelid forms that roamed the forests (North American camels were a different branch that vanished as well as horses) but once they reached South America, they adapted to the new habitat and changed again. And the same goes for other South American ungulates. Only the mammals which could adapt to different habitats including jungle can spread through both Americas, but not those not adapted to woodland. That's why South American camels did not recolonize North America, for example.

I mean that it is posible that an equid would reach South America, but would be a different species that would later evolve in a different form. It could resemble back to a horse in some way, but it would never be a true horse.

I will admit that the examples I used were fauna not really comparable to horses. I used such diverse taxa to show that there would be many different strategies and opportunities for survival that the horse may stumble upon in an ATL.

I would say that the ability for a species to spread geographically isn't entirely dependent on adapting completely to a different habitat. The distribution of vegetation has fluctuated over the course of thousands of years, the wet periods of the Sahara being an extreme example. The horse (or any open habitat species) did not need to become a tiny rainforest creature to reach South America. The time periods characterized by more aridity would spread open habitats favorable to horses and they would simply make their home in the newly opened landscape.

Here is a vegetation map of South America 11,000 years ago. The savanna/scrub/forest mosaic would be easy enough for a surviving horse population to penetrate. No need to struggle in the jungle when it moves out of your way. The horse already inhabited as far south as Bolivia on its own either way.

Is your point that the horse would change so much from it's time in South America that it would prove impossible to domesticate? I hope I'm not misunderstanding your concerns.

Understand the horse can be used for milk, meat, hide, as well as transportation. The thing is you are assuming the peoples of the Pampas do not treat them like zebras. The fact that an animal exists and is domesticated else where does not necessarily mean that they will be domesticated. People have farmed bison in the US and reindeer in Europe, but they have not succeeded with caribou in North America and wisent in Europe. The aurochs did not go extinct because people tamed them all. The przewalski horse has never been tamed there is no reason why hunter-gatherers with no real means of capturing these animals.

Also there would be competition from the native predators there, not just pumas and jaguars, with what you are suggesting other predators might survive. The horse is a large animal that is a lot of meat for a predatory animal that can catch it.

This is why I mentioned the DNA study that shows that the South American Equids could infact be Equus ferus caballus, the same species as the domestic horse. I'm not hostile to the idea of the horse not being domesticated and hunted only, which is why I said they could be analogous to the bison in North America near the end of my first post. Whatever the inhabitants do with the horse or the predators that may follow them, I'm open to seeing how they develop regardless.

 

[wtw]

I will admit that the examples I used were fauna not really comparable to horses. I used such diverse taxa to show that there would be many different strategies and opportunities for survival that the horse may stumble upon in an ATL.

I would say that the ability for a species to spread geographically isn't entirely dependent on adapting completely to a different habitat. The distribution of vegetation has fluctuated over the course of thousands of years, the wet periods of the Sahara being an extreme example. The horse (or any open habitat species) did not need to become a tiny rainforest creature to reach South America. The time periods characterized by more aridity would spread open habitats favorable to horses and they would simply make their home in the newly opened landscape.

Here is a vegetation map of South America 11,000 years ago. The savanna/scrub/forest mosaic would be easy enough for a surviving horse population to penetrate. No need to struggle in the jungle when it moves out of your way. The horse already inhabited as far south as Bolivia on its own either way.

Is your point that the horse would change so much from it's time in South America that it would prove impossible to domesticate? I hope I'm not misunderstanding your concerns.


This is why I mentioned the DNA study that shows that the South American Equids could infact be Equus ferus caballus, the same species as the domestic horse. I'm not hostile to the idea of the horse not being domesticated and hunted only, which is why I said they could be analogous to the bison in North America near the end of my first post. Whatever the inhabitants do with the horse or the predators that may follow them, I'm open to seeing how they develop regardless.

Personally I do not know enough about predators of South America at this time, however I know lions and the American cheetah are not in South America. The sabertoothed cats need much larger prey than horses to survive long term. Short faced bears are not likely, honestly I am beginning to suspect that their predators would be man, caiman, anaconda, jaguars and pumas. We might see larger jaguars as a result.

 

[twovultures]

Evolutionary TL's belong in ASB.

Technically it's not an evolutionary POD because no evolutionary changes have been made. A population has survived but has not been genetically altered. But thank you for your helpful comment

The main problem I see here is how horses would reach South America from North America without changing in the process.

I mean that it is posible that an equid would reach South America, but would be a different species that would later evolve in a different form. It could resemble back to a horse in some way, but it would never be a true horse.

You mean, like it did IOTL? Genetic tests have shown that what were once believed to be a plethora of American equid species during the pleistocene were basically three: A North American donkey-shaped horse, a South American donkey-shaped horse, and Equus ferus caballus, which had spread into South America. Keep in mind that the world was generally drier during the Ice Ages, so there was a lot more savanna for horses to hop across on the way down to South America. And without human hunters (or before the human hunters got to be such a big problem) the Andes would have presented a harsh but not insurmountable obstacle to colonizing horses as well.

 

[twovultures]

You maybe right on that, but I have my doubts that they could catch the animal with out killing them. I think they maybe come the bison of the pampas. I am not saying that they would be ignored, I think they would be deemed vital to their survival like the bison was in the Americas. I think that needs to be considered in your op.

I should preface this reply by saying that you're absolutely correct that the domestication of the horse is not at all inevitable. But it is still possible, and since the domestication of horses has already occurred IOTL I'd even posit that it is likely.

A fully-grown horse they probably couldn't catch without killing, which is why I suggested foals in my domestication scenario. If the Ainu could do it with grizzly bears, Pampas Indians could do it with horses. As for the why, once again it's size. Horses are big, and ITTL would be the largest or second-largest South American animal after the tapir-and the tapir is not going to live in the same environments as the horse. When the next-biggest animal (marsh deer or white-tailed deer, depending on on where you are) is half the size of an adult horse when fully grown, horses are going to appear very impressive. Even if you only keep a horse around long enough for it to become the horse equivalent of a teenager, you have as much or more meat as the next biggest prey item on hand, and you don't need to bother to hunt it.

Once again, this is not inevitable. One possible scenario is that there are multiple surviving herds in South America-on the Altiplano, tropical pampas, temperate pampas, the llanos, and the cerrado-but people in only one of those areas successfully domesticates horses, even after near or pseudo-domestication in other areas. Just as it seems to have happened IOTL in Eurasia.

 

[Jon the Numbat]

Personally I do not know enough about predators of South America at this time, however I know lions and the American cheetah are not in South America. The sabertoothed cats need much larger prey than horses to survive long term. Short faced bears are not likely, honestly I am beginning to suspect that their predators would be man, caiman, anaconda, jaguars and pumas. We might see larger jaguars as a result.

Sounds about right. The smaller carnivores like the South American foxes (actually not true foxes) or ocelots would only threaten foals at most and they along with the maned wolf, prefer smaller prey anyway. Slightly larger jaguars and pumas are possible but probably over a longer time frame (tens of thousands of years). It is important to note that they do have the opportunity to prey on horses today, though I can't speak on the credulity on such reported encounters.

 

[wtw]

I should preface this reply by saying that you're absolutely correct that the domestication of the horse is not at all inevitable. But it is still possible, and since the domestication of horses has already occurred IOTL I'd even posit that it is likely.

A fully-grown horse they probably couldn't catch without killing, which is why I suggested foals in my domestication scenario. If the Ainu could do it with grizzly bears, Pampas Indians could do it with horses. As for the why, once again it's size. Horses are big, and ITTL would be the largest or second-largest South American animal after the tapir-and the tapir is not going to live in the same environments as the horse. When the next-biggest animal (marsh deer or white-tailed deer, depending on on where you are) is half the size of an adult horse when fully grown, horses are going to appear very impressive. Even if you only keep a horse around long enough for it to become the horse equivalent of a teenager, you have as much or more meat as the next biggest prey item on hand, and you don't need to bother to hunt it.

Once again, this is not inevitable. One possible scenario is that there are multiple surviving herds in South America-on the Altiplano, tropical pampas, temperate pampas, the llanos, and the cerrado-but people in only one of those areas successfully domesticates horses, even after near or pseudo-domestication in other areas. Just as it seems to have happened IOTL in Eurasia.

you serious underestimate how defensive a mare can be, wild horses will kill grizzly bears in defense, I don't disagree that its not impossible, but I have such severe doubts that it could happen.

 

[wtw]

Sounds about right. The smaller carnivores like the South American foxes (actually not true foxes) or ocelots would only threaten foals at most and they along with the maned wolf, prefer smaller prey anyway. Slightly larger jaguars and pumas are possible but probably over a longer time frame (tens of thousands of years). It is important to note that they do have the opportunity to prey on horses today, though I can't speak on the credulity on such reported encounters.

I can I have done lots of research on both felines, jaguars even though they are highly dependent on reptiles, they evolved to kill larger and bigger prey items. Cougars are well know for jumping on the backs of horses and donkeys and ripping out their throats. They are among the main predator in the American West of wild equines. You are correct with the young as well. I would also add certain fish species, because this is South America we are talking about.

 

[Jon the Numbat]

I can I have done lots of research on both felines, jaguars even though they are highly dependent on reptiles, they evolved to kill larger and bigger prey items. Cougars are well know for jumping on the backs of horses and donkeys and ripping out their throats. They are among the main predator in the American West of wild equines. You are correct with the young as well. I would also add certain fish species, because this is South America we are talking about.

Very interesting, so the puma and jaguar have an opportunity to be more populous in their original range, especially if the horse is not domesticated. If the horse is domesticated, I imagine these predators wouldn't be tolerated nearly as much but not to the point of being driven extinct. They would still have smaller prey to fall back on and habitats that humans and horses wouldn't prefer.

 

[wtw]

Very interesting, so the puma and jaguar have an opportunity to be more populous in their original range, especially if the horse is not domesticated. If the horse is domesticated, I imagine these predators wouldn't be tolerated nearly as much but not to the point of being driven extinct. They would still have smaller prey to fall back on and habitats that humans and horses wouldn't prefer.

I would have to agree with the jaguar and to a lesser extent the puma. Pumas are more adaptive and tolerant to a degree than the jaguar, you would need human densities of Uruguay where neither felines are but once where to have complete extinction. Honestly in the Northern range of the jaguar I think it would require firearms to truly make it go extinct. I think it would go something like this:

Pre-domestication 2-5 times the population for both felines, with pumas being better breeders being the higher number of the two.
Post-domestication Jaguars reduced to pre-European numbers and pumas cut back down to half of the number.
European arrival with in 500 years Extinction of both cats in Uruguay and massive population losses and localized extinctions in and around major livestock centers and populations.

The problem is with Latin America we know so little about both felines there. Jaguars being particularly difficult due to where they currently live. What we do know is that pumas if given enough space and prey will adapt better than a jaguar will. There are places where both existed for along time and now only pumas remain.

 

[Jon the Numbat]

I would have to agree with the jaguar and to a lesser extent the puma. Pumas are more adaptive and tolerant to a degree than the jaguar, you would need human densities of Uruguay where neither felines are but once where to have complete extinction. Honestly in the Northern range of the jaguar I think it would require firearms to truly make it go extinct. I think it would go something like this:

Pre-domestication 2-5 times the population for both felines, with pumas being better breeders being the higher number of the two.
Post-domestication Jaguars reduced to pre-European numbers and pumas cut back down to half of the number.
European arrival with in 500 years Extinction of both cats in Uruguay and massive population losses and localized extinctions in and around major livestock centers and populations.

The problem is with Latin America we know so little about both felines there. Jaguars being particularly difficult due to where they currently live. What we do know is that pumas if given enough space and prey will adapt better than a jaguar will. There are places where both existed for along time and now only pumas remain.

Hmm..with domesticated horses and potato and quinoa growing farming societies in the Southern Cone, the indigenous population could get fairly large, though probably not at Mesoamerican densities. Any OTL style colonial establishment (i.e. Portuguese Brazil/Spanish Rio Plata) wouldn't get far inland for a long time (I'm thinking Comanche style raids from a longer established pastoral population) and such society would probably resemble Peru or Guatemala in terms of % indigenous population. The jaguar could still remain more common in the region than OTL, with a reduced Native population that's capable of halting settlers for a greater length of time.

The puma would, if anything, do much better in this scenario for the reasons you mentioned.

Even if the horse isn't domesticated, introduced horses would still find eager riders and even they probably won't have an extensive need to extirpate the puma or jaguar like the European settlers would. I would be interested in finding out how these predators fared during the colonial period, though the studies are probably few and far between.

 

[wtw]

Hmm..with domesticated horses and potato and quinoa growing farming societies in the Southern Cone, the indigenous population could get fairly large, though probably not at Mesoamerican densities. Any OTL style colonial establishment (i.e. Portuguese Brazil/Spanish Rio Plata) wouldn't get far inland for a long time (I'm thinking Comanche style raids from a longer established pastoral population) and such society would probably resemble Peru or Guatemala in terms of % indigenous population. The jaguar could still remain more common in the region than OTL, with a reduced Native population that's capable of halting settlers for a greater length of time.

The puma would, if anything, do much better in this scenario for the reasons you mentioned.

Even if the horse isn't domesticated, introduced horses would still find eager riders and even they probably won't have an extensive need to extirpate the puma or jaguar like the European settlers would. I would be interested in finding out how these predators fared during the colonial period, though the studies are probably few and far between.

You are correct we do know that jaguars outside of forests, swamps and terrain areas have been completely wiped out, they are a threatened species. The fact is the Amazon and the other places mentioned are extremely difficult and quite frankly dangerous for researchers due reasons both natural and man-made. That goes for all animals in Latin America for that matter.

I would like to give you a comparison, think of jaguars being like tigers, they both by and large live in the same general environment and have much of the same characteristics other than the obvious ( coat coloration, maximum size 350 pounds vs 800 plus for tigers and jaguars quite frankly climb better than tigers will ever do). They also average 3-4 cubs. They are solitary, as far as we know, and that in the wild it is common to lose at least half of the young due to natural causes.

Pumas on the other hand are a cross between African lions and leopards. They care for the young with mothers and fathers and sisters being friendly and at times helping one another. They do wander but we know that they are very family oriented. They also will breed at higher rates and much more quickly than that of the jaguar, with up to 6 cubs, they will take advantage of the prey increase, they do that for two reasons, a long term source of prey items and when there is severe pressure on the population numbers. It takes a lot to make cougars extinct. Generally the destruction of both game and habitat and then severe hunting pressure that no native American tribe ever did. In North America the great plains had the lowest historical population of pumas, they by and large stuck to the forested river areas due to competition from wolves and there being no way to escape or fight them off otherwise. In order to make the cougar extinct you need to have firearms and large amounts of people clearing the land of animal and plant life they do not want. Jaguars on the other hand don't need as much pressure in comparison.

 

[Kushim]

With these species in mind, I think one can make a case for the horse to continue living in South America, at least at the Andes and Venezuela. A study on the DNA of the Pleistocene South American horse Amerhippus shows that they could in fact be the same species of the domestic horse (The study is titled: Ancient DNA clarifies the evolutionary history of American Late Pleistocene equids).

Equus Neogeous? I keep thinking of Hippodion and its relatives which is a sister branch to the Equines

 

[Kerguelen]

Here's a scenario I made a while back:

Chariot of the Gods - A Civilizational TL

Vague Overview: OTL reveals how indigenous peoples across the southern cone such as the Charrúa and the Mapuche quickly adapted to horseriding and cavalry during the advent of Spanish colonialism, leading me to think what if horses were indigenous to the continent? In this world, the prehistoric horses of South America remained extant in Altiplano Plateau instead of being hunted to death by mankind. Eventually they are domesticated, giving birth to a mass migration of nomadic llama herders which eventually coalesce into sedentary nation states. “South American” civilization is vaguely analogous to India’s, home to waves of migrants settling across the continent, creating ever evolving systems of governance and faith.

Rio Plata = The Indus/Punjab, a wealthy breadbasket and a cradle of civilization. This is the home of the great silver emperors who have risen and fallen from power since the beginning of time. In this time the empire has gone from rule by clashing semi-feudal nobles swearing nominal fealty to the crown to a centralized state administered by a clergy of shamanistic scholar officials. Serving as a great empire, the land is also a center of political philosophy, with various schools of thought regarding man’s legalistic relation to the laws and spirits.

Patagonia & Atacama = Central Asia, a dry steppe filled with nomadic raiders ruling over semi-settled agrarian communities. Here the horse lords reign supreme, praying to a plethora of gods. These horselords end up raiding their wealthy empires to the north and becoming the new emperors before getting usurped by the next invaders. In the high arid steppe there is a great ruin that was once the heart of a great continent-spanning empire, now ruled by wild dogs and grave robbers searching for treasure.

Amazon = The Ganges/Bengal, a magnificent river of crucial importance for navigating the continent’s interior. As such, it is considered a deeply sacred place in many faiths. Along the riverbanks, various merchant kingdoms have emerged with the region being a center of trade across the hemisphere. As of recently, the mouth of the river has come under the rule of a vast trade empire in conflict with the horselords in what we know as the Llanos grassland. Several merchant lords have sought to escape this conflict, looking for greener pastures in the northern isles.

Andes = The Himalayas, a vast mountain range and the birthplace of many faiths that have made their way across the continent. Wealthier and less politically united as petty kingdoms attack the lowland from land and sea. Despite this, pilgrims and traders alike traverse the slopes of these golden mountains atop their strange woolly mounts. Recently contact has been made with a strange seafaring people from the sunset, bringing strange creatures with delicious fatty flesh.

Brazilian Highlands = The Deccan Plateau, a wealthy region and the home of some of the greatest dynasties in the continent’s history. Home to precious jewel mines and vast fields of cotton, rival kingdoms have long fought over the riches of this land, leading to millennia of bloodshed, which has only increased after the spread of fire powder weapons. The situation has coalesced around two major polities in constant conflict, ruled by rival astrologer-kings who both believe the stars have ordained them to rule.

Now the year is 3-276, three cosmic cycles after the enlightenment of Achiyaku, two god-deaths after the conquests of Kojh-Shenrr, and 1500 years after a boy was born in the city of Bethelem. A trading ship from the Amazon has been swept adrift into the ocean by a sudden storm and will end up discovering a new world.