The Great War begins in 1863

[Rogue Shadows]

snip

The thing is, Russia has no border with France despite being at war with her, and no way to threaten French assets without moving overland. So Alexander II's only real avenue of attack is through either Prussia (and a bit of Hanover) or Austria, then either Switzerland or Italy.

Given that the Prussian route is shorter and the Germans really don't like the French, a Prusso-Russian alliance seems likely, especially since Prussia is going to have to deal with France sooner or later, and an opportunity like this - getting ~75 million extra people behind you - doesn't come along every day.

Add in what I still feel is the distinct possibility of Austria joining out of spite towards France and fear of Prussian and Russian revanchism, and hoping to share in the influence (imagine how strong Austria will be in Italy if there's no France strong enough to curb her influence! At least that's what Alexander II and whoever the Prussian king is (Wilhelm?) will say)

 

[Valdemar II]

The thing is, Russia has no border with France despite being at war with her, and no way to threaten French assets without moving overland. So Alexander II's only real avenue of attack is through either Prussia (and a bit of Hanover) or Austria, then either Switzerland or Italy.

So you're suggesting that the entire Russian elite has been replaced with drooling idiots? Because any Tsar even thinking something so incredible idiotic would end up in "accident" in any other case.

Given that the Prussian route is shorter and the Germans really don't like the French, a Prusso-Russian alliance seems likely, especially since Prussia is going to have to deal with France sooner or later, and an opportunity like this - getting ~75 million extra people behind you - doesn't come along every day.

Prussia has no interest in a war with France, in OTL Bismarck backed down everytime he came close to war with France and it was only Nappy III idiocy which finally succed in creating the war.

Add in what I still feel is the distinct possibility of Austria joining out of spite towards France and fear of Prussian and Russian revanchism, and hoping to share in the influence (imagine how strong Austria will be in Italy if there's no France strong enough to curb her influence! At least that's what Alexander II and whoever the Prussian king is (Wilhelm?) will say)

Neither Austria nor Prussia has a interest in a conflict with France. They have a interest in cleaning Germany and Italy up without French intervention.

Here are what's going to happen. Russia doesn't try to march through Germany, because it's beyond borderline retarded and they didn't try that in the Crimean War for exactly that reason. Russia use the oppotunity to invade the Ottomans, because control over the Balkans are a important part of the Russian goals. The French and English support the Ottomans with troops, but UK has to use troops to defend Canada and France has to deal with Mexico, so they send less support than in the Crimean War.

This is a interesting idea, but I suggest you read up on the Crimean War if you wish to make this timeline, because in Europe that's how this conflict are going to look.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Rogue Shadows, and there lies the problem. Against the CSA plus only moderate Anglo-French support, such as naval action plus supplies to the CSA the only plausible result is Lincoln losing the 1864 election and suing for peace in hopes he'll get a better deal than the new president sworn in come March 1865 will get. Assuming the Union lasts that long.

This situation means certain disaster for the Union at sea and in terms of trade, commerce and the economy, plus several new enemies plus the CSA no longer lacking in supplies, arms or money. Given that the outcome of the war not certain OTL until well into 1864 how could these developments not spell defeat for the United States?

The advantages? Prussia has just embarked on a massive four year effort to revamp the army and has no navy worth the name. Russia is still recovering from the military disaster in 1856. The United States is now up against an entire coalition and the proposed allies of the USA can't do anything to help out in North America.



Fear of Prussia? That's the state of mind that will ensure Austria supports France, if Prussia giving orders to Austrian allies like Hanover doesn't do the trick.




Valdemar II, invade the Balkans? That adds Austria AND the Ottoman Empire to the list of Russian enemies!

Hope Russia does much better than during the Crimean War because when the US sues for peace there's going to be a storm coming, a storm based on actual planning in the last year of the Crimean War, where Russia is stripped of substantial territory, starting with Poland, Finland and the Caucausus.

 

[Rogue Shadows]

snip

I feel you missed the spirit of my previous post. How would you, if given command of the situation, actually carry out the war? You're giving all sorts of good reasons for the war to never start and how Russia will lose it. Do you mean to tell me that there is no way Russia could actually do anything at all? The Crimean War is nearly seven years passed at this point, but what you're saying amounts to the idea that Russia has been pants-on-head retarded and not gotten any recovering underway as though they've lost the war only yesterday.

Imagine you can come up with any POD since the end of the Crimean War, as long as it's not ASB and only concerns Russia.

 

[Blackfox5]

I think most of the discussion about what other European powers would join in is actually moot. None of the European countries have real plans on what to do in the situation. While all have interests they would like to achieve, the news that Europe is engaged in a new war would likely be a shock.

Every other power would likely adopt a wait and see approach. There is no reason why any of them would want to take sides NOW as opposed to seeing how the war turns out.

To every other European power, the war in North America is meaningless. What happens there does not affect them. What matters is how the balance of power changes in Europe. So it is very important for everyone to first see 1) what Russia actually does, 2) how Britain and France responds, and 3) what the outcome is.

Only if Russia does well and shows an ability to defeat British and French armies will other countries join the Russia-US coalition. Countries that have other aspirations, but don't want to become involved in this war, won't risk starting a separate, smaller war because that war may become absorbed into this greater war. And until people know who is top dog, they won't risk entering a war. No one wants to accidentally doom themslves by backing the wrong side. And unlike past wars, this war is clearly not about stopping one power from becoming the hegemon of Europe. Instead, it's a war that began by accident about a place not critical to European power politics. There are too many unknowns.

The TL needs to determine what Britain, France, and Russia will do before we can speculate how the war may spread, if it does at all.

 

[stevep]

Valdemar II

I doesn't get why Prussia join the conflict, it has more or less moved the focus away from Germany, which mean that Prussia doesn't need to look over it shoulder toward France, UK and Russia while dealing with Denmark, the minor German states and Austria, while joining the Great War gives them nothing they really want.

I think the main reason Prussia is allied with Russia in the war is it's the only way Russia could actually attack the western powers. Would agree that unless some circumstance makes such an idea very attractive to the Prussians I can't see them being distracted by such and alliance.

1864: 2nd Schleswig War more or less the same result, the Ribe area and Ærø may stay part of Schleswig rather than being trade for the royal enclaves (which likely still will be annexed).

Possibly although if the western allies are warring with Russia there is likely to be complications as they will want to ensure access to the Baltic. This could however mean that they come to terms with the German powers, giving them a free hand against the Danes, to avoid being distracted.

1866: German-Prussian War, Prussia win and without fear of French intervention take more, Saxony are annexed, from Austria we at very least see Austrian Silesia annexed but likely the entire Bohemia.

While I can see Prussia defeating Austria and possibly taking a little more land I'm less confident about all of Bohemia. It is very rich industrially but it is also strongly Czech and Catholic and I don't think Bismarck wanted more of either group in the greater Prussia he was seeking to establish.

1870-71 If USA hasn't been defeated yet, we see a Hohenzollern on the Spanish throne. The Franco-Prussian War doesn't happen. Napoleon III has either several foreign victories and doesn't need to start a war with Prussia or are continue a fight with USA and Russia (unlikely I doubt USA last much beyond 1866 if that long).

It would take substantial incompetence for the western allies to have not defeated America by this time. That's a war of 6+ years at a minimum and without Prussia allowing Russia to through large land armies into Europe Britain and France can put so much pressure on America, which is also still fighting the south. I can't see it sustaining a conflict that long given the odds and also it is a war that the US can end fairly cheaply if it does early enough.

Steve

 

[Grey Wolf]

Belgium and Luxemborg equal most of the northern German states?

Furthermore, the Prussian Rhine province does have a border with France in the Metz/Verdun area.

http://www.davidrumsey.com/InsightR...d Rumsey Collection&id=22020&ir=700052&iwas=2

I think you are forgetting that Prussia is split in 2 and that linking them one cant simplly invade Hesse Cassel and think that its done, the breadth of modern armies would require many more miles

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Valdemar II]

I think the main reason Prussia is allied with Russia in the war is it's the only way Russia could actually attack the western powers. Would agree that unless some circumstance makes such an idea very attractive to the Prussians I can't see them being distracted by such and alliance.

That's the reason I suggested Russia invading the Ottomans, Russia need a reason to declare war, and that reason can more or less only be the Ottomans. Prussia are not going to join the war, they have nor interest in it, nothing to gain and everything to lose

Possibly although if the western allies are warring with Russia there is likely to be complications as they will want to ensure access to the Baltic. This could however mean that they come to terms with the German powers, giving them a free hand against the Danes, to avoid being distracted.

The problem are that France and UK has no interest in Prussia joining the war, and the German Confederation only have a very short window to deal with the Danes if they don't invade in 1864-65, the Danish incooperation of Schleswig has become fait accompli, Holstein and Lauenburg stay in personal union with Denmark. The problem with recognising that, are that it will hurt both Prussian and Austrian prestige, while also being deeply unpopulare among the people.

While I can see Prussia defeating Austria and possibly taking a little more land I'm less confident about all of Bohemia. It is very rich industrially but it is also strongly Czech and Catholic and I don't think Bismarck wanted more of either group in the greater Prussia he was seeking to establish.

The Czechs wasn't strong C atholic, much of their national awakening build on a anti-Catholism (even through they stayed Catholics), the Bohemian Germans on the other hand was strongly Catholic, but this was primary a result of a German nationalist attitude. Prussia taking Bohemia are going to mess up the national identities of both German and Czech Bohemians. We may see Germans whom become strongly pro-independence or Bohemian nationhood (becoming German Czechs), Czechs whom adopts a pro-Prussian attitude or becoming Slavic Germans. All in all annexing Bohemia are going to be a mess, but it's valuable enough to do so, and the Prussian annexed both Danish North Schleswig and (de facto) French Moselle (German Lorraine).

It would take substantial incompetence for the western allies to have not defeated America by this time. That's a war of 6+ years at a minimum and without Prussia allowing Russia to through large land armies into Europe Britain and France can put so much pressure on America, which is also still fighting the south. I can't see it sustaining a conflict that long given the odds and also it is a war that the US can end fairly cheaply if it does early enough.

I agree, I see the war taking at most 4 years, but I don't buy 6 month, CSA succeded in keeping the war going against a superior enemy for 5 years, even while blockage. USA which are on war footing won't go down too fast.

 

[stevep]

I agree, I see the war taking at most 4 years, but I don't buy 6 month, CSA succeded in keeping the war going against a superior enemy for 5 years, even while blockage. USA which are on war footing won't go down too fast.

Valdemar II

The deciding factor here, which gives the chance of a short war is that the challenge for the union is not the same as for the south. The latter had to fight to the end because it was threatened with destruction. The union can actually concede points earlier because, other than acceptance of the loss of the south they could well avoid any territorial losses. On the other hand if they prolong the war until their economy is trashed, possibly also attacking Canada, then they are likely to anger the allies and make for a harsher peace. [Not to mention if the US is going into melt-down and the south is getting re-equipped by trading with the rest of the world the latter is going to be in a stronger position to gain disputed border regions].

Hence there is a decent chance that the union will realise it's best chance is to make a quick peace.

Steve

 

[Mark 4 Morrel Barrel]

I love this series

 

[Grimm Reaper]

AIGH!!!


NOOOO!!!


MAKE IT GO AWAY!!!​

 

[Mark 4 Morrel Barrel]

Why its a very well reasearched and very engrossing series.

I mean I like TL191- alot but the characters in comparison

 

[Rogue Shadows]

I love this series

Ooh, that looks bitchin'. I'll have to look into it.

 

[Telemond's_Lamb_Chop]

Why its a very well reasearched and very engrossing series.

It is an absolutely awful book. As for being well researched, it is either terribly badly by someone that did not understand the subject or a set of lies and fabrications assembled by a cynic with no respect for his readers who knew there was no credible POD for what he wanted to happen so he just made it all up. There are so many logical inconsistencies in the book it is laughable. The battle scenes are some of the worst ever written in a couple of cases the outcomes defy the laws of physics. Harry Harrison's grasp of history was equally flawed but he was having a laugh and his books are fun Britannia's fist is not fit for use as a*rse wipes.

I do conceed it was engrossing however, I managed to write 20,000 words noting the author's errors whilst reading it.

 

[Mark 4 Morrel Barrel]

Is that you 67th Tigers?
While I do amidt the Union got some breaks so did the Russians in WWII

 

[usertron2020]

Is that you 67th Tigers?
While I do amidt the Union got some breaks so did the Russians in WWII

Telmond's is NOT a cyber sock puppet of 67th Tigers. You want proof? First, Telemond's admits the possibility of his commiting an error. Second, he will accept that those who disagree agree with him may have valid points. Third, he knows what the word "concede" means.

As I PMed Fiver elsewhere, no alliance will save the Union if you accept a setting where the Anglo-French Alliance are determined to save the Confederacy and crush the Union. Even if every nation in Europe declared war on the A/F Alliance (ASB, I know), all the way down to Portugal, the Papal States, and the Ottomans, the only result is an unholy curbstomping of France. The British will still be untouchable, they'll just be left with the Confederates alone. It does nothing for the Union.