The First Fleet: What's the worst that could happen?

The First Fleet was the fleet that carried the first British transportees to Australia. It consisted of eleven ships (two naval vessels, six ships carrying convicts and three carrying supplies). The flagship was the HMS Sirius, a 16-gun converted merchantman.

The fleet left Portsmouth May 13, 1787, reached Tenerife on June 3, Rio on August 5, Cape Town on October 13 and Botany Bay on January 18-20, 1788. It carried 778 convicts in conditions better than a slave ship, but still pretty horrible.

Leaving out ASB ideas like “Cthulhu rising from the depths and hitting his head on the keel of the Sirius,” what’s the worst disaster that could have happened to the First Fleet? Could a storm at sea have taken out the whole fleet, or part of it, and would such a storm be likely in those waters at that time of year? The transport and supply ships ranged in size from 272 to 453 tons, and none of the ships were more than six years old. There were a substantial number of marines to guard against a convict mutiny, but they didn’t have musketballs until they got to Rio. The man in charge of the whole thing, Captain Arthur Phillip, has earned a reputation for competence and meticulousness.

With all that in mind, could something go wrong badly enough to put the British government off the whole idea of transporting convicts to Australia?
 
They were pretty low on supplied and had trouble farming in the first couple years of the colony due to the ground being shit and a lack of fresh water, so in my opinion one of the worst things that could happen would be for one or more of the supply ships to go down rather then anything happening to the flag ship
 
No, its not implausible to basically wipe out a significant fleet in that era... Take a look at what happened after Trafalger for a low end example.

Worst likely outcome though would be for all the problems of the Second Fleet to hit the first. Really the First did remarkably well for what they were trying to do in that era, and the conditions and outcome of the second is arguably more predictable.

Would a colony survive? IMO, probably, but I serisouly question whether it would be considered viable, or whether transportation would have a reputation as much more than a death sentence by another name.
 
Related to pirates, mutineers and all that, the captain of the Bounty became a governor of New South Wales and was the only Australian government leader to be deposed by the military.
 
Related to pirates, mutineers and all that, the captain of the Bounty became a governor of New South Wales and was the only Australian government leader to be deposed by the military.

Bearing in mind of course that he did nothing terribly unreasonable in NSW. He was, in fact, deposed because he told the marines to stop selling booze to the convicts...

Such a harsh ruler :p.
 
Bearing in mind of course that he did nothing terribly unreasonable in NSW. He was, in fact, deposed because he told the marines to stop selling booze to the convicts...

Such a harsh ruler :p.

Well what do you expect don't take our rum :p

There are much worse reasons for the military to overtake a nation or colony in this case..
 

Cook

Banned
Bearing in mind of course that he did nothing terribly unreasonable in NSW. He was, in fact, deposed because...
He was toppled in a coup because he tried to prevent John Macarthur and Co. from making the Colony their own personal fiefdom.
 
Bearing in mind of course that he did nothing terribly unreasonable in NSW. He was, in fact, deposed because he told the marines to stop selling booze to the convicts...

Such a harsh ruler :p.
Not Royal Marines. By that stage they'd been supserceded as teh garrison of NSW by the NSW Corps... better known as the Rum Corps. And it wasn't just due to Bligh wanting to stop 'em selling rum to the convicts but rather a whole suite of econo-political conflicts (it says something that the officers of the Rum Corps were some of the largest landholders in the colony)... and it wasn't just Bligh, there had been considrable issues between the Rum Corps and the previous two governors.
 
Related to pirates, mutineers and all that, the captain of the Bounty became a governor of New South Wales and was the only Australian government leader to be deposed by the military.
see, that's just funny.


Anyway. Besides starving from lack of supplies, a storm i think would be the worst thing because they would never reach Australia in the first place. Being sunk at sea.....my fear.
 
see, that's just funny.


Anyway. Besides starving from lack of supplies, a storm i think would be the worst thing because they would never reach Australia in the first place. Being sunk at sea.....my fear.

Yeah, but while still possible wiping out even a major chunk of the fleet really is a bit of a stretch as far as plausibility goes.
 

Cook

Banned
Yeah, but while still possible wiping out even a major chunk of the fleet really is a bit of a stretch as far as plausibility goes.
It isn’t actually. The British government was willing to pay such a low rate for the hire of shipping for the fleet that many of the ships were very far from seaworthy and took on water continuously. The fleet went more than half way around the world, crossing the South Atlantic (in both directions), the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean; it’s amazing they didn’t have any sink as it was without a major storm.
 
No, its not implausible to basically wipe out a significant fleet in that era... Take a look at what happened after Trafalger for a low end example.

Not really a fair comparison. After Trafalgar most of the captured French ships were demasted and little more than floating wrecks. They were crewed by a skeleton prize crew with no time for repairs and some had to be lashed to the ship that captured them to get them back to port - a tactic that backfired in rough waters by threatening to sink the RN ships too. It's no surprise that half of them had to be scuttled...
 
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