The Effects of a Global Thermonuclear War: escalation in 1988

Not entirely sure if I'm putting this in the right category--if I screwed up--apologies in advance.

Apparently someone went to the time and effort -- using strictly public sources no less-- to work out the effects of a nuclear war in 1988. The results are a bit ... disturbing, to say the least.

It starts off with Gorbachev being assassinated in 1988 and quickly goes downhill from there

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html
 

Raymann

Banned
I think the US will reorganize quicker then he predicts. At the first sign of trouble, the President, Congress, and state legislators will disperse. After it is over, services will be as bad as he claims but the leadership will be there. National Guard units will probably be able to restore some order around the cities and important facilities. As for raids and such, most of the nations conventional military will be devistated but the remainder will be put on the borders. Also the its likely the Coast Guard will still be intact and that is a navy right there. As for food, we have enough stores for at least one winter which and probably enough for a second if it is supplemented with new crops which can be grown in the South and the West.
 
The problem lies as much with transport as with supplies - anything with an electronic ignition won't work - how many cars, trucks, planes etc have electronics? Also, there are few communications facilities available due to EMP - the govt won't know where to send stuff, even if they could.

This reminds in parts of both Warday by Whitley Streiber and James Kunetka, and also as a possible world that Orion Shall Rise by Poul Anderson would be set in.
 

Raymann

Banned
well I think it depends where and to what extent the EMP's are detonated. How high up, the range of each bomb, and how many are used. There are millions of vehicles and more then a few will make it. Enough certaintly to be pressed into service; also many trains and trucks will be out on the road so many of them will surive. Whats really important is fuel and its distribution? I think thats where it would be really bad. They're priority targets and most of them are clustered togethered. Oil production on the other hand is going to surive as domestic production is enough to satisfy emergancy needs and government services as long as it is curtailed for civilian use. The wells are often in remote areas and spread out so they won't be targeted. But like I said, whats the point of all the oil if you can't refine it?
 
Although the factors leading to the war and its quick expansion sound goofy, I found the rest of the article quite interesting. In particular, I found it refreshing that the author had tens of thousands of warheads detonated in the northern hemsphere but the effect of "nuclear winter" was fairly short term and limited on a global basis. I've always been somewhat suspicious of humanity's ability to deliberately or accidently trigger worldwide ecological disasters. To me it makes sense that the USA, most European nations, and the USSR would completely disintegrate as cohesive political entities when faced with such complete destruction, but having conventional war continue in Europe after such devastation seems unreasonable. My guess is that great massess of the US and Soviet armies might simply go AWOL when it becomes apparent their homelands and political structures no longer exist. I'm also not convinced this would be accompanied by the aggressive expansion of China and places like Australia and South American republics turning into rapacious invaders and raiders of victim areas. Maybe I'm hopelessly naive, but wouldn't some of these countries (particularly Australia and New Zealand) be at least as interested in mounting humanitarian relief operations? And the Nationalists taking back over mainland China?
 
I found this interesting to compare to my personal scenario for a CMW. Churchill (I believe) said most of the bombs in World War Three would just make the rubble bounce, so perhaps the larger stockpiles of weapons in 1988 would not make that much difference to 1962. And the militaries of even the most "lucky" nations in Castro were occupied for years after the war with just maintaining internal order. One difference is vehicles with electronics, which were rare in 1962 IIRC. Did the big tests of the early Sixties mess up many vehicles, does anyone know?
 
Assessment

1. Did the Russians attack China because China was on our side? So why is Taiwan attacking China?
2. Why are southern hemisphere countries raiding the urban coastal areas? Why not just show up with food in return for whatever they want?
3. Why is food production down to 2 percent in the US? We can do better than that using hoes to kill weeds and hands to kill bugs. Remember, there are more than one hundred million unemployed Americans.
4. Why are the armies still fighting in Germany? The German industrial areas are gone. Germany is just a bunch of hungry people.
5. Why are the Arabs attacking Israel? Israel is a smoking, radioactive, wasteland.
6. You can still burn oil for warmth, and you can still get some gasoline out of oil without a refinery. All a refinery does is increase your transport fuel percentage from 10% to 60%, and produce asphalt, coke, fuel gas, plastics precursers, and electricity as byproducts. There will still be demand for oil just to burn to generate electricity.
7. Why are areas of China seceding? From what?
8. Why are Chinese moving into Siberia? There is no food there, and there is now a much lower Chinese population density.
9. Why bubonic plague instead of pneumonic plague? Bubonic plague needs fleas to spread and since we have huge quantities of insecticides in our garages there won't be any fleas and lice to spread bubonic plague and typhus. Cholera is also more likely without central water supplies having enough clorine.
When I see things like that I have problems believing the other stuff he says, like why the nuclear winter is so mild.
 
wkwillis said:
1. Did the Russians attack China because China was on our side? So why is Taiwan attacking China?
2. Why are southern hemisphere countries raiding the urban coastal areas? Why not just show up with food in return for whatever they want?
3. Why is food production down to 2 percent in the US? We can do better than that using hoes to kill weeds and hands to kill bugs. Remember, there are more than one hundred million unemployed Americans.
4. Why are the armies still fighting in Germany? The German industrial areas are gone. Germany is just a bunch of hungry people.
5. Why are the Arabs attacking Israel? Israel is a smoking, radioactive, wasteland.
6. You can still burn oil for warmth, and you can still get some gasoline out of oil without a refinery. All a refinery does is increase your transport fuel percentage from 10% to 60%, and produce asphalt, coke, fuel gas, plastics precursers, and electricity as byproducts. There will still be demand for oil just to burn to generate electricity.
7. Why are areas of China seceding? From what?
8. Why are Chinese moving into Siberia? There is no food there, and there is now a much lower Chinese population density.
9. Why bubonic plague instead of pneumonic plague? Bubonic plague needs fleas to spread and since we have huge quantities of insecticides in our garages there won't be any fleas and lice to spread bubonic plague and typhus. Cholera is also more likely without central water supplies having enough clorine.
When I see things like that I have problems believing the other stuff he says, like why the nuclear winter is so mild.

1. a) Probably. Or because they fear that THEY might attack first (old wisdom: Strike the enemy while he's weak) b) Taiwan and communist China are old enemies. Since the superpowers won't stop them now, they'll duke it out.
2. Why are they supposed to trade fair if they can simply take? Third world countries were never famous for having food surplus, anyway...
3. The nuclear exchange was before the harvest. So the crops were destroyed on the fields / made unedible because of radiation.
4. I read that they only used tacnukes in Germany.
5. Revenge? Don't forget, Israel attacked them first with nukes. They certainly want to put sure that no Israeli survives. :-C
7. Warlords using the opportunity to secede. Since there's no more government, people want someone to take control. Of course, you could ask whether a country declaring its independence after there's no more central government at all (because it's been nuked) is actually seceding, but that doesn't matter IMO.
8. I guess that the US won't attack many targets in Siberia; most cities are too small and unimportant (except Vladivostok and some bases with ICBMs, maybe). Lots of land, few people there, revenge for Russia's nuclear attack... Yes, China's population also dropped, but most of their arable land now is radiated. (And China never had that much, proportionally.)
9. He also mentions typhus, pneumonia and influenza. And: Mild winter? 4 degrees less can mean a lot, since summer wheat f.e. needs temperatures above 10°C for 100 days continued. Check your atlas about some areas where you can grow wheat now and where it becomes impossible if temperatures dropped 4°. Canada, Siberia, many parts of Europe, for example.
 
The Barley Line

The Barley Line is the northern limit of grain production, past where even barley won't grow. Sort of like Iceland where barley goes in and out of production every few hundred years, depending on the weather. They do grow bananas in Iceland but that's in greenhouses. Speaking of which, we do have a lot of office buildings in the US with south facing windows. If they are away from the cities, we will get some food production from them.
However, the US does have a lot of southern real estate that will grow food even if the weather does cool significantly. You may be growning wheat in Texas instead of North Dakota or potatos in Georgia instead of sweet potatos, but something will grow unless we have a full up nuclear winter.
Lack of rainfall because of SO3 nucleation from all that wallboard is going to be more of a problem.
I've got to move to Australia soon. This subject is making me nervous. We are making great strides in quantum modeling of solid state processes and a tuned light emitter that could separate isotopes could suddenly get very cheap...
 
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