CHAPTER 1: A Warning in the Night (PoD)
THE EAGLE AND THE BEAR
Chapter 1: A Warning in the Night (Our Point of Divergence)
Paul I of Russia
The Warning Approaches
It was the 12th of March, 1801, around 10:00 at night. Paul I, Emperor of all Russia, was winding down for the day, trying to sleep despite his insomnia. His bed faced the door. The image of its imposing ornamental canopy and the garish yellows and golds in the room’s design invoked a certain uneasy cheeriness, like a canary in a cage being led to its death. The palace of which this bedroom was a part was, too, like a cage. A squat, octangular structure which sat on an artificial island, carved from the rest of Saint Petersburg by rivers and canals, Saint Michael’s Palace resembled a cross between a fairy-tale castle and a military fortress. It fit; Paul was obsessed with legends of chivalry even more than ideas of shadowy plotters. In fact, his fairy-tale fortress was only reachable by a password-protected drawbridge.Suffice to say, if Paul didn’t want to see someone, he would not be seeing someone. At least, that was the theory. In reality, his bewildered sentry guard had lowered the bridge for the middle palace gate. A visitor was approaching. He was not alone. [1]
Grand Prince Alexander, first son of Paul I, marched hurriedly down the halls towards his father’s bedroom, accompanied by Admiral José de Ribas and a small band of loyal Imperial Guardsmen sourced from Paul’s old Gatchina regiments. The grand halls and foyers of the palace echoed emptily with so many footsteps. They must have still smelled “new,” as much as a grand imperial palace can ever smell new. The building was, after all, completed just two weeks prior to this night. Alexander must have been nervous. Although he never mentioned his personal feelings about the incident in his memoirs, we do know he dreaded dealing with his father from a young age. Erratic, prone to fits of rage, and never one to give up a grudge, Paul was seen by his son as a petty tyrant. “Russia,” Alexander is famously quoted as saying, had become a “plaything for the insane” under his father’s thumb. However, he had been spurred into action by his companion the Admiral, and his message was urgent: there was a plot to depose the Emperor of all Russia.
The Conspiracy That Could Have Been
If Alexander did worry about his father’s potential reaction to the news, he was right to. After all, he had been in on the plot, and had reason to believe that Paul had known about his involvement. Peter Ludwig von der Pahlen— military governor of Saint Petersburg, governor of the Baltic provinces, close advisor to the Emperor, lead organizer of the plot to depose said Emperor, and many, many other things— had months earlier been forced by circumstance to reveal his plot. He had managed to convince Paul that he was a trusted servant, merely keeping an eye on the affair to warn him if it develops into something serious, but in doing so he had betrayed that Alexander knew of the plan. We have no way of knowing what Paul planned to actually do with that knowledge in regards to the succession, but it was a sticky situation for Alexander. Paul’s own explicitly irreversible decree had transformed Russia’s succession laws into a strict, semi-salic primogeniture system. With both that and the history of Romanov heirs in mind, Alexander had legitimate reason to fear that Paul was seeking to do something about his troublesome heir.But Alexander and Pahlen hadn’t plotted alone. Count Nikita Panin, the Zubov brothers, and Admiral José de Ribas— the man beside Alexander that night— were among other important heads of the conspiracy, each man wary of their fortunes under such an eccentric ruler. The plan itself was simple. The conspirators were to lead an armed group of dismissed officers down through one of the palace gates, to Paul’s bedroom. They would be let in the building by disloyal officers of the Imperial Guard angry at constant drilling, strict oversight of their financial activities, and the inclusion of the impoverished, "low-status" Gatchina regiments in their ranks. Among many of the officers, their families had paid heavy sums to land them this position, and discontent was common even if the troops under their command generally liked Emperor Paul. Pahlen knew the passwords for the drawbridges, anyways, if any officer got cold feet. Once inside, the conspirators would force Paul to sign documents abdicating the throne in favor of his son, Alexander. They would rough him up if need be, but regicide (officially) was not in the cards. But, by the night of March 12, not everyone involved was quite so sure on that last part.
Poison is Only a Murderer's Tool
Months earlier, in December of 1800, de Ribas had been forced to have second thoughts. Before the plan could be carried out, he caught a particularly bad fever. He was visited by various members of the conspiracy to reschedule the timing and settle some details. However, after a visit from the Count von der Pahlen during which he was given warm tea, his symptoms became horrifically worse. He reported in his memoirs falling into a sort of heavy confusion the night after the visit, and described convulsions and a brief period of vomiting blood. Miraculously, he survived [2]. Historians debate whether or not Pahlen actually poisoned Admiral de Ribas, but the Admiral certainly believed so. Specifically, de Ribas believed that Pahlen had attempted to poison him out of fear that his fever may cause him to leak secrets about the conspiracy. It was weak logic, but he was sure that he was poisoned, and could not think of another reason.De Ribas developed a personal vendetta against Pahlen, and quickly became convinced that the coup attempt was, in reality, an assassination. Nobody involved but himself and Grand Prince Alexander, he insisted to his grave, ever really expected the prideful, hot-tempered Emperor Paul to abdicate without a fight. He called for Alexander immediately after he recovered while feigning his continued illness, and told him of his fears. To Alexander’s credit, his stance on the plot seems to have completely shifted when he heard what de Ribas had to say [3]. It would seem that, while he believed his father should be deposed, killing him in cold blood was unthinkable. Either that was never Alexander's intention, and he was genuinely misled as to the nature of Romanov power struggles, or he got cold feet upon hearing the news from de Ribas. Either way, him and de Ribas both found themselves in a strange situation. Afraid for their lives if they tried to break up the conspiracy themselves (and knowing it had far too much momentum to stop now anyways), they hurriedly made plans to inform the Emperor in person.
The Warning Arrives
And so here they were. When they reached the bedroom and found Paul awake, de Ribas remarks in later writing that “[h]is eyes lit up at once with fiery indignation upon seeing his son and myself, but were set only to sad betrayal upon seeing [his Gatchina regiments].” It took a lot of convincing to ensure Paul that this wasn’t the deposition he had been fearing, but once he was informed of the reason for their visit, he was shaken to his core. De Ribas had brought extensive documentation implicating many of those involved at the highest level, including himself. However, he neglected to mention many figures we now know to be key to the plan, such as General von Bennigsen, and even Count Nikita Panin.This neglect would be his doom. Though Paul (a fetishist for noble sacrifice if there ever was one) was lenient with him at first, offering him only exile, he was later imprisoned for many years on discovery of the whole truth. As for Alexander, the Emperor’s immediate response was shocking to everyone involved. The Grand Prince suffered no consequences in the slightest— no arrests or anything. While it is true that Alexander had put his own spin on events (claiming, for example, that Pahlen had lied to him and roped him in entirely against his will), the conciliatory response was still shocking to everyone involved.
The "Ides of Paul"
What wasn’t so conciliatory were the arrests made in the weeks after. Upon his return to the palace as part of his duties, Pahlen was captured by the Imperial Guard and thrown into prison. He was soon joined by fellow conspirators, including Count Panin, General von Bennigsen, General Yashvil, the Zubov brothers, officers of the Imperial Guard, and a great deal other important military men and statesmen of the court. Some of these men, such as the young Valerian Zubov, were only tangentially related to the plotters, without any currently-existing evidence linking them to the conspiracy, but were otherwise rivals of Paul. The Imperial Guard itself was also purged of dissent, and the Gatchina regiments rose even further in rank and importance.These mass arrests, known to historians as the “Ides of Paul” or “Pauline Ides” (coined due to many of the arrests— especially those among the inner court circle— occurring on the 15th of March), were followed by long periods of torture, before the inevitable executions. Paul was determined to rat out any and all accessories to the crime as planned. Though many of the men were executed, Pahlen himself was strangely sent to far off Siberia instead, where he was sentenced to hard labor in the katorga system. He would die only two years later, from an unknown disease. Some say he was poisoned, either by de Ribas or perhaps even Alexander himself, as an act of revenge or fear that he would continue to spread word of Alexander's true involvement as a conspirator. Most historians believe this is an apocryphal myth meant to tie a pretty bow around loose ends, but the possibility remains intriguing (even being famously presented as truth in the French opera La femme du Tsar).
After extensive torture, Nikolay Zubov (one of the Zubov brothers together with Platon Zubov— Catherine the Great’s former lover— and among the most prominent masterminds of the plot), shouted that the British ambassador in Saint Petersburg— Lord Whitworth— was involved in the plot as well [4]. Zubov claimed that the ambassador had provided the plotters with all the necessary funds to allow the conspiracy to operate: funds provided directly from the British government. It is a matter of historical debate as to whether or not Whitworth really was involved, and if so, to what extent. It is well-documented that Nikolay and Platon Zubov’s sister, Olga Zherebtsova, was Lord Whitworth’s lover. And, it is known that most if not all of the planning and decision-making for the deposition was made at Zherebtsova’s house. However, the involvement of the British government itself in the plot is still unknown, and no documentation has been recovered to prove Whitworth’s financial involvement, though his romantic involvement with Zherebtsova is agreed upon as true by most historians.
Despite the lack of hard evidence, Zubov’s confession under torture was enough proof for Emperor Paul. This confirmed all of his worst suspicions. Ever since Horatio Nelson refused to surrender Malta to the Knights Hospitaller (of which he was the protector and Grand Master) after the British reconquest of the island from Napoleon’s clutches, he had treated the British with suspicion at best [5]. In September of 1800, he had cut off all diplomatic ties with the British and imposed an embargo on all two-hundred English ships stationed in Russian ports. And now they send assassins for his head? This new affront against his rule, and potentially even his life, settled things. Not only was it a diplomatic breach, but it was a decidedly unchivalrous one.
For Paul, the days of Anglo-Russian friendship were over.
A military parade in St. Petersburg under Paul I. Soon, parades would be a rare sight once again.
[1] You might think this is the PoD, but not quite. Hold your horses.
[2] Still not quite the PoD, but it kind of sort of is— maybe. I’m assuming a lot of things here, leaning towards the more scandalous and… fun assumptions. There’s a lot of mystery surrounding the assassination of Paul I, and one theory holds that de Ribas really was poisoned by Pahlen to shut him up. This being true isn’t really necessary for the actual PoD, or for the TL in general, but I thought it was a much more dramatic and fun way to go about it.
[3] This is the PoD! What I am fairly sure of in all the mystery surrounding the assassination is that, despite later Romanov propaganda, Alexander was pretty deep in the mud during the course of the plotting. While he might have only been tangentially aware of it, I struggle to believe that. He had every incentive to depose his father, and no incentive not to— that bit about Pahlen informing Paul of the plot against his rule is OTL.
[4] I’m less sure of whether or not Whitworth or the Birtish government was involved. While it does seem pretty open and shut to me that he was the lover of the Zubov brothers’ sister (who was instrumental in helping to organize the plot), his actual financial involvement seems iffy, much less any financial involvement that the British government itself actually knew of. So, I’m leaving that bit very open to interpretation— Paul certainly interpreted it in a very specific way!
[5] The role appealed to his romantic sensibilities about chivalry and his earlier childhood fantasies, and he took his role as Grand Master seriously. When he was ceremoniously inducted into the order as Grand Master, historian Evgeny Karnovich wrote that observers saw “tears of pleasure” in his eyes. He even installed the Maltese cross in the Russian Empire’s emblem! The island’s seizure had been the reason he had joined the alliance against Napoleon to begin with, and the refusal to return it to the Knights had been among the reasons he left, alongside other disputes.
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