Besides the Patriot batteries and nuclear ABMs, there should also be the Aegis-equipped Ticonderogas and the first few Arleigh Burkes available for ballistic missile defense, using SM-2 and SM-2ER missiles. Aegis ships started to be updated to deal with ballistic missiles after the Gulf War IOTL, and I'd imagine that would have been sped up a heck of a lot ITTL. They'd allow many of the Patriot batteries to be moved to protect critical inland targets.
The Death of Russia - TL
- Thread starter Sorairo
- Start date
Besides the Patriot batteries and nuclear ABMs, there should also be the Aegis-equipped Ticonderogas and the first few Arleigh Burkes available for ballistic missile defense, using SM-2 and SM-2ER missiles. Aegis ships started to be updated to deal with ballistic missiles after the Gulf War IOTL, and I'd imagine that would have been sped up a heck of a lot ITTL. They'd allow many of the Patriot batteries to be moved to protect critical inland targets.
Excellent but horrifying timeline. Considering that I’m now sightseeing near the White Cliff, Dover, I was just sweating a bit when I read through the latest update. There should be sequels to TTL, be there Protect and Survive-esque spin-offs or stories on the nuked non-Russian areas.
The total destruction of Halifax, and the wipeout of the majority of population Anchorage are also going to have implications. Halifax has been touched upon by a few of you, but there’s going to be problems in Alaska. As for Anchorage, I’m not even sure if the population would even be evacuated on time as it may not be seen as essential. If Governor Knowles (or Campbell) and his lieutenant governor are in Anchorage out of bad luck and both are dead, there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the line of succession according to the Alaskan constitution. And there’d literally be no state government for some time. Just wonder how would that be tackled, and the impact of it from a legal and constitutional perspective. (Edit: thanks for Ming’s reminder, Anchorage is not the state capital, so it seems the political impact would be less severe, but still a huge portion of Alaskan population is annihilated overnight and it would be huge to Alaska…)
As for Russia, while it is not possible to list the number of cities nuked, what would be the most populated city west of the Urals to luckily spare annihilation? There’s possibility that some nukes simply fail to explode, and that a few cities with populations between 100,000 and 300,000 remains (even though half of the remaining population would die of starvation or nuclear fallout sooner or later). Does it even matter? I would say yes, and would be interested in seeing what the West would deal with the survivors.
On Hong Kong’s handover, regardless of how much the local population would have wished otherwise, I don’t think China would stop taking over given the Sino-British Joint Declaration. One of the biggest difference could well be even greater emigration from Hong Kong, more than the post-Tiananmen OTL(and ITTL as it’s before the POD) and the OTL post-2019 emigration wave combined. And perhaps Sir Ti-liang Yang or even Anson Chan would become the first post-handover leader of Hong Kong, and the Legislative Council elected in 1995 may well be extended into post-handover Hong Kong. But one thing is for certain, personally speaking, under TTL circumstances I would very likely grow up in London instead of Hong Kong.
As a side note, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping is just months away from his death in ATL when Russia dies, but Deng and Jiang would make sure, at least on the surface, that China would be willing to cooperate with the West. The 3rd Taiwan Strait Crisis in OTL 1996, just before the nuclear apocalypse, is likely butterflied away as China would be too preoccupied with the nuclear war that’s about to happen in a month’s time.
China may continue acting rather ambiguously on Taiwan instead of almost triggering a war in 1996 in OTL. Deng and Jiang are no Xi Jinping, they are far more capable and pragmatic. Even Xi Jinping would not be adventurous and crazy enough to invade Taiwan when there’s a war just beginning in Ukraine. Deng and Jiang are smart enough to know that doing so would spell the end of the Communist Party, and would therefore refrain from doing anything stupid.
Meanwhile, Taiwanese President Lee Teng-Hui likely did not even visit Cornell University in TTL, his alma mata. Even if he does, threatening Taiwan with missiles would end up horribly wrong in TTL. Lee is likely still re-elected just a month before April 10th, albeit with a smaller majority and a much better showing by DPP.
I’m also wondering if China would want to suspend the controversial in OTL Three Gorges Dam construction project in TTL. In OTL, it got a crazily high 32.3% No/ABS votes in the rubber stamp National People’s Congress back in 1992. As construction just began in 1994 in OTL and that the most controversial part that involves evacuation of tens of millions of people from cities going to be flooded by the project is yet to take place, coupled with the very danger of the TGD becoming a nuclear target of either a conflict with the West or insane wannabes like Osama bin Laden that could kill 50 million+ people on a single day, Deng, Jiang and Li Peng may reluctantly suspend the project prematurely.
The total destruction of Halifax, and the wipeout of the majority of population Anchorage are also going to have implications. Halifax has been touched upon by a few of you, but there’s going to be problems in Alaska. As for Anchorage, I’m not even sure if the population would even be evacuated on time as it may not be seen as essential. If Governor Knowles (or Campbell) and his lieutenant governor are in Anchorage out of bad luck and both are dead, there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the line of succession according to the Alaskan constitution. And there’d literally be no state government for some time. Just wonder how would that be tackled, and the impact of it from a legal and constitutional perspective. (Edit: thanks for Ming’s reminder, Anchorage is not the state capital, so it seems the political impact would be less severe, but still a huge portion of Alaskan population is annihilated overnight and it would be huge to Alaska…)
As for Russia, while it is not possible to list the number of cities nuked, what would be the most populated city west of the Urals to luckily spare annihilation? There’s possibility that some nukes simply fail to explode, and that a few cities with populations between 100,000 and 300,000 remains (even though half of the remaining population would die of starvation or nuclear fallout sooner or later). Does it even matter? I would say yes, and would be interested in seeing what the West would deal with the survivors.
On Hong Kong’s handover, regardless of how much the local population would have wished otherwise, I don’t think China would stop taking over given the Sino-British Joint Declaration. One of the biggest difference could well be even greater emigration from Hong Kong, more than the post-Tiananmen OTL(and ITTL as it’s before the POD) and the OTL post-2019 emigration wave combined. And perhaps Sir Ti-liang Yang or even Anson Chan would become the first post-handover leader of Hong Kong, and the Legislative Council elected in 1995 may well be extended into post-handover Hong Kong. But one thing is for certain, personally speaking, under TTL circumstances I would very likely grow up in London instead of Hong Kong.
As a side note, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping is just months away from his death in ATL when Russia dies, but Deng and Jiang would make sure, at least on the surface, that China would be willing to cooperate with the West. The 3rd Taiwan Strait Crisis in OTL 1996, just before the nuclear apocalypse, is likely butterflied away as China would be too preoccupied with the nuclear war that’s about to happen in a month’s time.
China may continue acting rather ambiguously on Taiwan instead of almost triggering a war in 1996 in OTL. Deng and Jiang are no Xi Jinping, they are far more capable and pragmatic. Even Xi Jinping would not be adventurous and crazy enough to invade Taiwan when there’s a war just beginning in Ukraine. Deng and Jiang are smart enough to know that doing so would spell the end of the Communist Party, and would therefore refrain from doing anything stupid.
Meanwhile, Taiwanese President Lee Teng-Hui likely did not even visit Cornell University in TTL, his alma mata. Even if he does, threatening Taiwan with missiles would end up horribly wrong in TTL. Lee is likely still re-elected just a month before April 10th, albeit with a smaller majority and a much better showing by DPP.
I’m also wondering if China would want to suspend the controversial in OTL Three Gorges Dam construction project in TTL. In OTL, it got a crazily high 32.3% No/ABS votes in the rubber stamp National People’s Congress back in 1992. As construction just began in 1994 in OTL and that the most controversial part that involves evacuation of tens of millions of people from cities going to be flooded by the project is yet to take place, coupled with the very danger of the TGD becoming a nuclear target of either a conflict with the West or insane wannabes like Osama bin Laden that could kill 50 million+ people on a single day, Deng, Jiang and Li Peng may reluctantly suspend the project prematurely.
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Honestly, seeing the direction in which the story has gone and especially the comments... I would not be surprised at all if in TTL NATO decides to destroy China, when they suffer their first crisis, with a first nuclear strike... because they have decided that this is preferable to the risk of China starting to collapse in the same way as Russia...
Well if that happens then my prediction is indirectly correct if that were True
Ming777
Monthly Donor
Anchorage is the largest city in Alaska, but it is not the capital. Juneau, AK is the State Capital, so the Alaskan state government is still running.
PS: Halifax will rebuild, as this is not the first explosion to wipe it out. It will be costly, however.
Thank for the W
It was just a funny post in this thread about China being next of the chopping block after Russia and if that actually come true then it'll be indirectly confirm my prediction
Thanks for the clarification, and I would also like to clarify if it’s “only” the Elmendorf Air Base getting nuked or Anchorage itself. The difference would be huge, having just done a simple check on the nuke map.
My guess is China would actually survive, and there seems to be indication that China still controls North Korea well into the 2000s. But if by any chance China is about to collapse in TTL, then it would be hell ten times worse than Russia. It remains to be seen if the West would appease and somehow avoid China collapsing by tactically supporting its dictatorship, or it would impose some sort of economic isolation. No matter what, someone on the alternate AH.con may write timelines like “Death of China” depicting China in a mess with a different Tiananmen in 1989 and nuclear civil war between warlords in the aftermath.
Just wonder how AH.com members in this world would try to speculate on if Yeltsin surviving 1993? Could be interesting to see such spin-offs as AH novels within TTL.
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Let me guess you want to write it right?
Then go for it but wait until this one finish mate
That distinction would go to Novosibirsk, the third-largest city in the country, owing to it being in Siberia (and Lebed's capital).
So being successfully conquered by Poland-Lithuania (who even IOTL occupied Moscow for two years) might have been a "blessing in disguise" for Russian political development as being under the "noble democracy" of the PLC could have influenced Russian political development in a less autocratic direction?
Geon
Donor
In my timeline/story, Voices of Doomsday (see below for the link) there was a chance to rebuild both in the United States, Russia, and Germany after World War III, all of which received a lot of damage. https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/voices-of-doomsday.385922/
In the U.S. of course enough of the infrastructure and population survived that rebuilding the cities destroyed in the war was expensive and difficult but still possible.
In Germany Berlin survived and though somewhat the worse for wear given a conventional battle was fought in her managed to survive. And in Russia despite the war there were some villages that survived the holocaust and thrived in the VODD TL.
In Russia in this TL the resources still exist but aren't exploitable and the infrastructure is gone but there is still some population. Is it possible that in some cases these pockets could begin rebuilding?
In the U.S. of course enough of the infrastructure and population survived that rebuilding the cities destroyed in the war was expensive and difficult but still possible.
In Germany Berlin survived and though somewhat the worse for wear given a conventional battle was fought in her managed to survive. And in Russia despite the war there were some villages that survived the holocaust and thrived in the VODD TL.
In Russia in this TL the resources still exist but aren't exploitable and the infrastructure is gone but there is still some population. Is it possible that in some cases these pockets could begin rebuilding?
So I looked through the TL to see who survived 4/10 that could go to trial and from the looks of it, both Eduard Limonov, Anatoly Fomenko and Alexey Dobrovolsky are not mentioned to have died during the Exchange, so the only question is where are they after everything. Timothy McVeigh is mentioned to have memoirs IIRC so he could potentially still be alive if he lucked out in Stalingrad and if he makes it to The Hague.
Yazov was mentioned to be the highest-ranking member of Anpilov’s government to survive, but there hasn't been any word of Viktor Ilyukhin since the aftermath of Moscow. I'm guessing Prosecutor General could be lower than Grand Marshal or whatever Yazov's rank was but maybe Ilyukhin met his end as well.
Not really expecting any answers until the chapter with the Hague does come out, mostly just listing out who could be alive still.
Yazov was mentioned to be the highest-ranking member of Anpilov’s government to survive, but there hasn't been any word of Viktor Ilyukhin since the aftermath of Moscow. I'm guessing Prosecutor General could be lower than Grand Marshal or whatever Yazov's rank was but maybe Ilyukhin met his end as well.
Not really expecting any answers until the chapter with the Hague does come out, mostly just listing out who could be alive still.
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Dobrovolsky was stated to have boarded the plane which got shot down, so yeah, he's dead, but Limonov might have not been on the fateful flight.
The plane shot down over Vodlozersky National Park only mentioned "Dugin, Barkashov, Nevzorov, Shafarevich and all the rest" to be among the casualties. Dobrovolsky's been fairly prominent in later chapters so I assumed if he died, his surname would be mentioned rather than just be considered "all the rest".
Dobrovolsky was stated to have boarded the plane when Petrograd was nuked by Stalinist forces, OTOH.