The day after The Day After Tomorrow

[Ilúphatar]

Ironically, if the Middle East becomes a major destination for European refugees, we might still see senseless "Eurabia" fear-mongering, just with the roles flipped.

I very much doubt the countries of the Middle East will be stable enough to receive refugees at all, let alone to be an attractive destination. The only possible exceptions I can think of are Israel, Egypt and Cyprus, and perhaps some of the smaller Gulf States who are able to hold themselves together with the collapse of the oil market.

I'm increasingly coming to the viewpoint of @AcaciaSgt that there is probably nothing left in Europe

Agreed. I think we're probably looking at only a few countries with continental European territories available to them. Portugal, Spain, Britain (in Gibraltar), Italy (Sicily, maybe Sardinia and parts of the south), Malta and Greece are probably the only ones left.

And as we previously talked about, a complete collapse of some of these (Spain, perhaps Italy and Greece) is also fairly likely.

Chad, the Congo, Sudan, Ivory Coast and other places are probably going to go to hell in a handbasket awfully fast.

Undoubtedly. And there's the collapse of international aid and severe disruption to climate patterns to contend with as well, so huge famine will almost certainly ensue.

Iraq collapsing in the wake of an American pullout is obvious

If Turkey and Iran freeze over too, Kurdistan might become the new dominant state in the region in the aftermath.

Oceania and South America seem like the only places that will emerge relatively unscathed

And even there the collapse of the world economy will cause enormous problems. As will changes to climate patterns, which will disrupt agriculture. Basically a very grim picture for the whole world

a massive refugee influx into India

I hadn't even thought of that, but yes, I think you're right. Not to mention that India has painstakingly built up a combination of manufacturing and service industries intended to serve the consumerist West - that is now gone, and with it, India's economy. We could see a total fragmentation of India and Pakistan, with the added thrilling prospect of loose nukes.

There's probably also going to be an exodus of Chinese into SE Asia, which will cause similar problems.

I could see French Guiana being sufficient as a new home for most Europeans.

I agree.

Depends upon what they could bring to the table, as occupying and holding territory in North Africa will probably require professional forces.

Not if those states have fragmented, which is not unlikely. If there's no government or organised military opposition, there's every chance that fleeing European governments will order 'emergency stabilisation and resettlement efforts' where feasible - probably Libya, perhaps Morocco as well. Raids on known military installations in North African countries will probably take place to ensure a supply of armaments, fuel and ammunition in order to maintain military rule in European refugee zones.

Could be entirely possible for the Brits to end up just evacuating to the New World and /or just joining up with the Americans.

I think the Australian option is more likely, for two reasons: Britain is still constitutionally linked to Australia given that they are subject to the same monarch; and Australia will probably look like a better bet than the US in this scenario.

I consider Australia as the likely #2 great power of the world in this scenario.

Agreed, if not #1. I think the rump US and Brazil would be the major competitors, unless I've missed something.

 

[History Learner]

The subtitles may call it the Embassy, but the President clearly says he's in a Consulate when he's making his speech. One of them has to be wrong, then. So who? Whoever wrote the script or whoever was in charge of the subtitles. Though once again, I'm going to point out the "city" we're shown as the helicopter approaches looks nothing like Mexico City.

The building the Helicopter lands at says "Embassy of the United States of America" on it; the U.S. only operates one Embassy within Mexico. The shot of the Helicopter coming in only shows one neighborhood right before it lands, and the movie is set in 2004; things could've been different then, but the reality is probably just Hollywood expense saving by not flying a helicopter over Mexico City during filming.

The reason the President says Consulate can be explained in universe as a stress-induced gaffe, given the reality of the situation he is in. Another explanation is that, at the time of his speech, he is indeed at a Consulate, after leaving the Embassy due to security threats.

How does one even "looks" Hispanic? Hispanic is a different denomination that, say, White, or Mestizo. Anyway, if the American president was in any of the Consulates that are near the border (Tijuana, Nogales, Ciudad Juarez, Matamoros, etc), then it doesn't matter if the crowd "looked" Hispanic. A good number of Americans in the southwest are either Hispanic or of Hispanic descent.

Most of the crowd appears to be Mestizo, but there are clearly a few Black and White individuals within it so I used the term Hispanic. Given the location of the scene is in Mexico City, I find it doubtful they are Americans.

To be honest, the actions still don't denote if it's really a protest. Security will be tight no matter who is outside since the building is currently housing the American President. Him looking at the window doesn't really has to correlate to the nature of the crowd outside. Only that it's there. Well, you said it. "Appear". I'm looking at that scene, and it's at best just two guys shown near one of the building's satellites, and only for a fraction of a second. Can't tell if they are truly snipers. And once again, so? Building will have heavy security due to housing the POTUS, regardless of who is outside.

They're chanting/screaming at the Americans and most of them appear to be waving fists during the scene; not exactly friendly gestures, to be sure.

As for the rooftop security, there's eight in total with four different emplacements, of which two appear to be machine gun posts while those on the very top appear to be snipers; I'll try to upload a screenshot of this tomorrow. I'll agree, however, that this particular point in of itself isn't conclusive, however.

Also, if you so insist enough of the US survived to still be on top of the rotting mountain, then surely they can just pull back instead of screwing around in northern Mexico... but fine, fine. Far from God indeed...

I've come to the conclusion you're probably right about the damage to the United States as far as territory in CONUS. With that said, however, the reality of the fact they have a vastly reduced living space and massive amounts of refugees makes me correspondingly more convinced that they will probably move into Mexico in order to rectify that particular issue. In the face of chaos and the potential for death, Humans aren't exactly the most rational. Further, based on my own personal estimations of whats presented in the film, it appears the global disaster has at the very least substantially weakened the Mexican Government, thereby leaving a power vacuum open for the U.S. to assume. Given what was pointed out upthread in so far as surviving military capabilities of the United States, they remain top dog by that virtue and said virtue gives them more than enough strength to preform the aforementioned operation.

 

[AcaciaSgt]

The building the Helicopter lands at says "Embassy of the United States of America" on it; the U.S. only operates one Embassy within Mexico. The reason the President says Consulate can be explained in universe as a stress-induced gaffe, given the reality of the situation he is in. The shot of the Helicopter coming in only shows one neighborhood right before it lands, and the movie is set in 2004; things could've been different then, but the reality is probably just Hollywood expense saving by not flying a helicopter over Mexico City during filming.

I've seen the scene. The letters on the building on-camera only reach the "Of". Don't know where you're seeing the Embassy word in there. You know, I visited Mexico City during those years, at least the time range. It aint like that, at least, considering the helicopter looked like it was already descending, but the embassy ain't in the outskirts of the city. Want my guess? It was the Tijuana consulate. It does has houses like that, with mountains nearby. Sometimes the houses are on the mountians/hills. The building could or could not match. Unfortunately, it was demolished in 2011 and a new one was built, and I couldn't find pictures of the old one. Also, if it was Tijuana, it could also explain why the guy took a helicopter, considering he was in a refugee camp near Mexicali (this one I'm sure of since dialogue mentions the name when the other helicopter the guy arrives at the refugee camp, as it is said by the pilot). From Mexicali to to Tijuana it wouldn't be out of place to take a helicopter, unlike from Mexicali all the way to Mexico City. A plane would be faster, considering the urgency of the message. Also, it makes sense. Considering the eye was over the east coast, it means the west coast wasn't being hit as hard, so as far as fleeing to Mexico was concerned, being in the Baja peninsula would've been among the safest place to be.

Most of the crowd appears to be Mestizo, but there are clearly a few Black and White individuals within it so I used the term Hispanic. Given the location of the scene is in Mexico City, I find it doubtful they are Americans.

Still much doubt it's Mexico City, so it could be a border town with American refugee flocking at a consulate.

They're chanting/screaming at the Americans and most of them appear to be waving fists during the scene; not exactly friendly gestures, to be sure.

As for the rooftop security, there's eight in total with four different emplacements, of which two appear to be machine gun posts while those on the very top appear to be snipers; I'll try to upload a screenshot of this tomorrow. I'll agree, however, that this particular point in of itself isn't conclusive, however.

I'd say it's hard to tell what exactly are they shouting to consider if it's hostile or otherwise.

Once again, I'd like to know just what are you watching, because what I see, is that the roof is barely shown, and only two guys are seen for fraction of a second. Just to get it over with... widescreen stuff?

I've come to the conclusion you're probably right about the damage to the United States as far as territory in CONUS. With that said, however, the reality of the fact they have a vastly reduced living space and massive amounts of refugees makes me correspondingly more convinced that they will probably move into Mexico in order to rectify that particular issue. In the face of chaos and the potential for death, Humans aren't exactly the most rational. Further, based on my own personal estimations of whats presented in the film, it appears the global disaster has at the very least substantially weakened the Mexican Government, thereby leaving a power vacuum open for the U.S. to assume. Given what was pointed out upthread in so far as surviving military capabilities of the United States, they remain top dog by that virtue and said virtue gives them more than enough strength to preform the aforementioned operation.

You know, most of the people that fled to Mexico are likely people who lived in the spared parts, anyway. They'd likely to just move back than stay. As for those that survived in the north and also survive to get brought south, chances are they could have no trouble giving them new homes. People that decide to don't move back would be leaving vacant places as well. Plenty of buildings could be converted to new homes depending on circumstances. Yes, humans aren't always rational all the time, but even then it would take being rational to go Manifest Destiny mk II to pull it off... or maybe you're right. It's too illogical/crazy/stupid so of course they'll do it...

Yes, what's presented in the film. However, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Just because we weren't shown what the Mexican government/military was doing outside the "close borders and ransom the foreign debt" doesn't mean they were weakened; much less that a power vacuum happened. No evidence of either outcome. The movie is, for the most part, Americentric. And as you insist the US is still top dog, then less reasons for that. More so with the reduced population. If the population-to-density loss wasn't proportional, I'm sure they can use freed portions. Also at your insistence some of the white areas seen at the end were temporal or in the still-habitable condition.

 

[Ilúphatar]

The letters on the building on-camera only reach the "Of".

This is the image @History Learner is referring to. The letters: '...bassy of the Unite...' can clearly be made out on the building itself. This makes it most probably the embassy of the United States.

 

[Ilúphatar]

Another question about the scenario... how long is the ice likely to last? It seems implausible that whole new glaciers could have formed simply from cold air.

It may just be compressed snow inland, with coastal areas covered with actual ice, because of all the storm surges caused by the superstorms freezing. If that is the case, then it might not last all that long.

Although if the Gulf Stream has been severely disrupted, Europe will be much cooler than it was pre-disaster. Britain, for example, will experience a climate closer to that of Canada.

Presumably the temperate zone would, in that situation, move south to somewhere over North Africa/southern Iberia.

 

[History Learner]

Another question about the scenario... how long is the ice likely to last? It seems implausible that whole new glaciers could have formed simply from cold air.

It may just be compressed snow inland, with coastal areas covered with actual ice, because of all the storm surges caused by the superstorms freezing. If that is the case, then it might not last all that long.

Although if the Gulf Stream has been severely disrupted, Europe will be much cooler than it was pre-disaster. Britain, for example, will experience a climate closer to that of Canada.

Presumably the temperate zone would, in that situation, move south to somewhere over North Africa/southern Iberia.

Dialogue within the film during the India Conference suggest it will last a few centuries, probably no more than 200 years or so; this fits rather nicely with your theory.

 

[Dave Howery]

Another question about the scenario... how long is the ice likely to last?

also... will this deep freeze and the loss of so much of the human population fix the basic problem of 'global warming happening because of melt-off at the polar regions'? Will the Arctic and Antarctic ice zones start piling back up again? What's left of humanity might emerge from the new ice age with a better climate. Although it's pretty grim that it took a tremendous disaster and huge loss of life to do so...

 

[water123]

I think an important thing that hasn't been addressed yet is that the storms died before they made it to the Southern Hemisphere. This would mean that nations like India, Brazil, etc are going to be in better shape due to the fact that they have at least until winter to start to figure things out.

EDIT: The real winners here are going to be the ASEAN nations, since with climate regulations having to do with global warming naturally being struck from the records and with a massive new influx of Chinese workers, they are going to be able to churn out an absolutely obscene amount of goods and basically be able to choose whatever prices they want.

 

[manitobot]

First off, thank you for making a thread for this. One question, how long will the Ice Age last? Btw, check out this video over on Alternate History Hub where he covers this topic:

. Ok, the USA may just expand southward with its military. I fully expect the USA to use its military to occupy or vassalize Mexico, Central America etc to aid its citizens. You can already see the growing discontent. Expect massive revolution throughout the world; social unrest just reached its breaking point. There may also be a famine; most of the world's breadbaskets have been frozen over. India, South Africa, Australia, Brazil, ASEAN will definitely be the new world powers.

 

[History Learner]

First off, thank you for making a thread for this. One question, how long will the Ice Age last? Btw, check out this video over on Alternate History Hub where he covers this topic. Ok, the USA may just expand southward with its military. I fully expect the USA to use its military to occupy or vassalize Mexico, Central America etc to aid its citizens. You can already see the growing discontent. Expect massive revolution throughout the world; social unrest just reached its breaking point. There may also be a famine; most of the world's breadbaskets have been frozen over. India, South Africa, Australia, Brazil, ASEAN will definitely be the new world powers.

About two centuries, based on what was said in the film and what @Iluvatar has pointed out.