This seems to be a discussion that comes up a lot vis a vis Cuban war TLs, and I think its worth trying to pin down some sort of consensus that isn't just people talking past each other. According to "The Cuban Missile Crisis: A nuclear order of battle, October and November 1962," "The Soviet Union had approximately 42 ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, no SLBMs, a long-range bomber force of 150 Bear and Bison bombers that would have had to face a formidable US-Canadian air-defense system of fighter interceptors with nuclear air-to-air missiles, and BOMARC (Boeing Michigan Aeronautical Research Center) and Nike Hercules surface-to-air missiles."
In terms of bombers, I turn to Operation Sky Shield. According to "This is Only a Test," an article in the Smithsonian Magazine, "Had Americans known NORAD’s conclusions, they might have ducked and remained covered. Nearly one-half of enemy flights at low altitude had escaped detection. Of those initially detected, 40 percent then eluded tracking radar by changing their formation shape, size, or altitude. All told, if Sky Shield bombers had been Soviet bombers, no more than one-fourth would have been intercepted.
"During all three Sky Shields, friendly units had posed as the enemy. Yet the participants had acted too much like, well, the enemy: flying lower than preauthorized, and flying in patterns that deviated from their assignments, a practice that required scrambles of the reserve force to identify the "unknowns."
"The remote radar stations, though, considered the most vulnerable of the far-flung system, survived every simulated ground attack.
"The Distant Early Warning and the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System lines had been penetrated by enemy cells of up to four aircraft, despite flying inbound at the system’s best tracking altitude, 35,000 to 40,000 feet. Low-altitude flights had been defined as anything below 5,000 feet, but NORAD acknowledged that a real enemy would fly lower, where continental radar was weakest.
"The SAGE system tracked less than one-third the total mileage flown within radar coverage. NORAD had prepared for an assault with advanced electronic countermeasures, but it was the low-tech chaff that degraded SAGE—to the point where manual tracking was required, leaving the enemy obscured until well within bomb-release lines."
Now Sky Shield was combatting a mixed force of B-47s, B-52s, and RAF Vulcans which obviously wouldn't be what the Soviets were attacking with, but equally the knowledge that the Soviets would be flying lower than the aircraft in Sky Shield and that the most effective countermeasure was "low-tech chaff" makes for grim reading. It does not take much to get through for the US and Canada to have an unpleasant time.
In terms of missiles I know a lot less, interested to see the consensus on that.
So what does the board think, how many hits will the Soviets be able to land on North America?
In terms of bombers, I turn to Operation Sky Shield. According to "This is Only a Test," an article in the Smithsonian Magazine, "Had Americans known NORAD’s conclusions, they might have ducked and remained covered. Nearly one-half of enemy flights at low altitude had escaped detection. Of those initially detected, 40 percent then eluded tracking radar by changing their formation shape, size, or altitude. All told, if Sky Shield bombers had been Soviet bombers, no more than one-fourth would have been intercepted.
"During all three Sky Shields, friendly units had posed as the enemy. Yet the participants had acted too much like, well, the enemy: flying lower than preauthorized, and flying in patterns that deviated from their assignments, a practice that required scrambles of the reserve force to identify the "unknowns."
"The remote radar stations, though, considered the most vulnerable of the far-flung system, survived every simulated ground attack.
"The Distant Early Warning and the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System lines had been penetrated by enemy cells of up to four aircraft, despite flying inbound at the system’s best tracking altitude, 35,000 to 40,000 feet. Low-altitude flights had been defined as anything below 5,000 feet, but NORAD acknowledged that a real enemy would fly lower, where continental radar was weakest.
"The SAGE system tracked less than one-third the total mileage flown within radar coverage. NORAD had prepared for an assault with advanced electronic countermeasures, but it was the low-tech chaff that degraded SAGE—to the point where manual tracking was required, leaving the enemy obscured until well within bomb-release lines."
Now Sky Shield was combatting a mixed force of B-47s, B-52s, and RAF Vulcans which obviously wouldn't be what the Soviets were attacking with, but equally the knowledge that the Soviets would be flying lower than the aircraft in Sky Shield and that the most effective countermeasure was "low-tech chaff" makes for grim reading. It does not take much to get through for the US and Canada to have an unpleasant time.
In terms of missiles I know a lot less, interested to see the consensus on that.
So what does the board think, how many hits will the Soviets be able to land on North America?
