The Center Cannot Hold
- Thread starter LHB
- Start date
I should have something up by tomorrow morning. I just got started on grad school so life's been fun lately!
Chapter 7: The Beginning of the End
Suddenly the fingers of a human hand appeared and wrote on the plaster of the wall, near the lampstand in the royal palace. The king watched the hand as it wrote. His face turned pale and he was so frightened that his legs became weak and his knees were knocking.
Book of Daniel 5:5-5:6
"The entire 1988 primary was the farce to finish the tragedy that was Reagan's fall from grace. The two main elements of the Reagan coalition; big business and social conservatives, openly came to blows driving deeper wedges into the party's unity. By the time the National Convention rolled around the GOP had already done most of the Democrats' work for them."
Patrick Buchanan from the A&E Biography Special: Ronald Reagan & his Tarnished Legacy, first aired April 1st, 1997
"I remember that day at the convention when he took the stage was a moment of great promise. We were going to turn the page on the mistakes and abuses of the past and move forward into a new, better tomorrow. I still thought it was possible to work through the two party system, before all the disappointments that would come over the next eight years. That night is one of the most bittersweet moments in my life."
Jesse Jackson from Roots of the Green Revolution (2001), directed by Selena Gomez(1)
Jimmy Carter is on Stage, Addressing the Crowd
Carter: America has gone astray. Under the mismanagement and inattention of the Reagan Administration our nation has lost its way. Our government ran amok at home and abroad. They broke the laws of the land, lied to the public, and destroyed the social contract.
*cheers and applause*
Carter: But tonight is not just about what has gone wrong. Tonight we are here to introduce to America the man who's going to Washington to clean things up! Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next President of the United States...
Taken from the Democratic National Convention, July 18th, 1988
April 14th, 1988: The Geneva Accords are signed by the Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. These accords establish the framework for relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Included in the accords is the timetable for Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.
April 16th, 1988: Gary Hart sweeps the Arizona caucuses.
April 18th, 1988: In yet another surprise from a campaign famous for its unexpected victories Jesse Jackson takes the Delaware caucuses.
April 19th, 1988: In the New York Primary Michael Dukakis comes out just ahead of Gary Hart. In a repeat of his performance in 1984 Hart ekes out a narrow win over Dukakis in the Vermont caucuses.
April 22nd, 1988: Medea Benjamin, her husband Ken Danaher, and two other friends co-found Global Exchange in San Francisco, CA to advocate for fair trade, raise global warming awareness, and work to mitigate the damage of globalization.
April 25th, 1988: In an unexpected upset Michael Dukakis comes out on top in the Utah caucuses, pulling out a win over Gary Hart and breathing some new life into the campaign.
April 26th, 1988: Michael Dukakis picks up fresh momentum with his solid win in Pennsylvania over Hart and Jackson.
April 27th, 1988: Jesse Jackson announces his withdrawal from the race for the Presidency. At this time he has not endorse either remaining candidate, a factor weighing heavily on the Hart and Dukakis campaigns due to Jackson's substantial bloc of delegates.
May 3rd, 1988: Gary Hart recaptures the momentum in the Midwestcarrying the Ohio and Indiana primaries.
May 15th, 1988: Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan begins.
May 17th, 1988: Gary Hart solidly wins in the Oregon primaries. With only four primaries left many are wondering how the race will be resolved.
May 18th, 1988: Jesse Jackson endorses Gary Hart for President and asks his delegates to cast their votes at the convention for Hart.
May 19th, 1988: Michael Dukakis officially concedes the nomination, congratulating Gary Hart on a tough, well-run campaign and praises him as, "the man to lead America forward from our national nightmare."
June 8th, 1988: In the northern California Redwoods an Earth First! crew en route to a road blockade in the deep woods are ambushed by a group of unknown individuals assumed to be loggers. While no one is seriously injured, aside from one black eye and a head wound needing some serious stitches, when the incident is reported to the Humboldt County Sheriffs they make all the noises they're supposed to make, give every excuse in the book, and ultimately do nothing.
June 23rd, 1988: NASA scientist James Hansen testifies to the Senate that man-made global warming had begun.
June 28th, 1988: Four workers are exposed to poisonous gas at a metal-plating plant in Auburn, Indiana, in the worst confined-space industrial accident in U.S. history. A fifth victim dies two days later.
June 29th, 1988: Morrison v. Olson: The United States Supreme Court upholds the law allowing special prosecutors to investigate suspected crimes by executive branch officials.
July 3rd, 1988: Iran Air Flight 655 passes over the American warship USS Vincennes unmolested. Captain Will Rogers III, under strict orders from NAVCENT due to the atmosphere of intense scrutiny in Washington, hails the aircraft before firing and confirms it is a civilian airliner.
July 6th, 1988: The first reported medical waste on beaches in the Greater New York area, including hypodermic needles and syringes possibly infected with the AIDS virus, washes ashore on Long Island. Subsequent medical waste discoveries on beaches in Coney Island and in Monmouth County, New Jersey force the closure of numerous New York–area beaches in the middle of one of the hottest summers on record in the American Northeast.
July 10th, 1988: Gary Hart announces his choice for running mate: Senator Al Gore Jr. of Tennessee. Many in the press remark on his relative youth, his membership in the rising Atari Democrats, and on his relative lack of experience.
July 18th, 1988: The Democratic National Convention begins in Atlanta, Georgia at the Omni. Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas gives the opening night address and is mercilessly jeered at and heckled by the crowd with many party insiders at the convention openly wondering if his political career is going to be a dud.(2) He is followed up by Walter Mondale who has the crowd laughing, applauding, and cheering for him after opening with, "Remember me?"
July 19th, 1988: The Convention continues with Texas State Treasurer Ann Richards giving the keynote speech. In it she blasts Bush for his secrecy, his executive manipulations, and his CIA past at one point saying he was, "Born with a silver foot in his mouth."
July 20th, 1988: Following an address by Senator Ted Kennedy, noted for the refrain, "Where was George?", the delegates formally nominates Gary Hart as their candidate for President with Al Gore as his Vice President. Former President Jimmy Carter introduces the ticket. Other speakers that day include George McGovern, JFK Jr., and Jesse Jackson. The party also votes on its platform including several very liberal planks like cutting the Defense budget by 20% and implementing universal health care for all Americans.(3)
July 21st, 1988: Al Gore and Gary Hart give impressive, eloquent addresses to the convention. Gore calls for making, "American government accountable to the American people again."(4) Hart concludes with, "It's time to wake America up from the long, national nightmare."
August 6th, 1988: A riot erupts in Tompkins Square Park in New York City when police attempt to enforce a newly passed curfew for the park. That night a peaceful rally was held to protest the new curfew on the formerly 24 hour park. Between 300 and 500 protestors were in the park at 11:30PM when NYPD officers under Captain McNamara charged the crowd. Witnesses reported officers assaulting demonstrators, local residents, reporters, and pedestrians in a reckless, uncontrolled rampage. The melee continues for most of the night until 9:00 AM the following morning leaving over 130 people injured and scattered property damage in the immediate neighborhood. The people of New York loudly condemn the police for the violence with over a four hundred brutality complaints related to the riot filed to the Civilian Complaint Review Board in the following week.(5)
August 7th, 1988 6:00PM: The Tompkins Square Park Police Riot makes CBS headline news. Images of injured New Yorkers, smashed windows, and police officers rampaging through the streets of New York are plastered on televisions across the country. The piece includes interviews with two reporters who were assaulted by police officers, one of whom is wearing a neck brace, and with poet Allen Ginsburg who witnessed the riot. Later that evening Mayor Ed Koch rescinds the curfew on the park.
August 8th, 1988: Thousands of protesters in Burma, now known as Myanmar, are killed during anti-government demonstrations known as the 8888 Uprising.
August 15th, 1988: The Republican National Convention begins. Three very conspicuous absences from the proceedings are former President Ronald Reagan, former First Lady Nancy Reagan, and Reverend Pat Robertson. Elizabeth Dole gives the opening speech.
August 17th, 1988: John McCain gives the keynote address to the Republican National Convention. In it he calls for, "A return to the values of Americans like Abraham Lincoln and Dwight Eisenhower that made our country great," and to, "turn away from the temptations of power to which even the greatest men can succumb."(6) In the end he calls for moderation and healing.
August 18th, 1988: The Republican National Convention in New Orleans, Louisiana nominates George H.W. Bush for President and Dan Quayle for Vice President of the United States of America. In his acceptance speech he vows to, "keep America moving forward, always forward—for a better America, for an endless enduring dream and a thousand points of light" calling for, "a kinder, gentler nation."
August 19th, 1988: A ceasefire is called in the Iran-Iraq War. The same day Pat Robertson writes and publishes a blistering op-ed on the Republican National Convention claiming the GOP is, "sparing the rod and spoiling the child" with, "their retreat from traditional conservative principles."
August 24th, 1988: Following the conventions and their fallout the Hart campaign is enjoying a solid lead in most of the country over Bush. The latest polls put Hart's campaign at 51.7% and Bush at 48.3%. Many are citing Bush's lack of personal warmth, his out of touch air, and his evasiveness and connection to Iran-Contra as major concerns in contrast to Democratic ticket's youth, energy, and freshness.
August 25th, 1988: New York Police Commissioner Benjamin Ward issues a scathing report on the Tompkins Square Park Police Riot laying the blame solely at the local precinct citing a lack of proper briefing and preparation and the lack of control of the situation by Captain McNamara.
August 26th, 1988: An editorial titled, "Yes, a Police Riot" is published in the New York Times. The piece unequivocally lays the blame for the Tompkins Square Park Police Riot at the feet of the police citing poor control of the situation and poor preparation as the root causes of the brutality.
August 27th, 1988: Pat Robertson is interviewed on NPR regarding his recent statements and his role in the presidential elections. In it Robertson unequivocally states, "I will never endorse a man who forced his way into office and engaged in the most vicious smear tactics to keep his grasp on power." He says his non-endorsement should not be taken as support for the Democrats. "If anything", says Robertson, "I do not feel any of the candidates for president are what this country needs. We have anarchy in the streets and dishonesty in the halls of power because we have driven the Lord from our lives. Mark my words: one day we will pay for our folly!"
1. She'll show up again soon, I can say for certain that's definitely not OTL's Selena Gomez. OTL Gomez lives a largely normal life TTL and is never discovered by Hollywood.
2. This actually happened OTL. Clinton took a great deal of satisfaction from this moment when he won the nomination and the election in 1992.
3. The platform is as OTL but with added planks calling for cutting the Department of Defense budget by 20%, a single-payer health care system, and an overhaul of oversight and regulation of the Executive Branch as a whole. The DoD cuts and UHC are there in exchange for Jesse Jackson's support along with a high-level appointment on the table.
4. No, Gore's speech is not a total wooden nightmare. Hart's campaign got him a good speech coach which smooths out the awkwardness.
5. The crowd, injuries, and number of brutality complaints is larger as the general public atmosphere of distrust of authority c/o Iran-Contra means more people are showing up. This in turn means the already nasty situation is just going to get worse with more people getting caught up in the violence. OTL the crowd estimate was 150-200 people with 38 reported injuries and over a hundred police brutality complaints.
6. OTL Tom Keane gave the keynote speech. TTL he's staying away from the convention to prevent being associated with Bush in any way. That's also why Bob Dole and Joe Paterno also do not make appearances in the GOP convention.
Suddenly the fingers of a human hand appeared and wrote on the plaster of the wall, near the lampstand in the royal palace. The king watched the hand as it wrote. His face turned pale and he was so frightened that his legs became weak and his knees were knocking.
Book of Daniel 5:5-5:6
"The entire 1988 primary was the farce to finish the tragedy that was Reagan's fall from grace. The two main elements of the Reagan coalition; big business and social conservatives, openly came to blows driving deeper wedges into the party's unity. By the time the National Convention rolled around the GOP had already done most of the Democrats' work for them."
Patrick Buchanan from the A&E Biography Special: Ronald Reagan & his Tarnished Legacy, first aired April 1st, 1997
"I remember that day at the convention when he took the stage was a moment of great promise. We were going to turn the page on the mistakes and abuses of the past and move forward into a new, better tomorrow. I still thought it was possible to work through the two party system, before all the disappointments that would come over the next eight years. That night is one of the most bittersweet moments in my life."
Jesse Jackson from Roots of the Green Revolution (2001), directed by Selena Gomez(1)
Jimmy Carter is on Stage, Addressing the Crowd
Carter: America has gone astray. Under the mismanagement and inattention of the Reagan Administration our nation has lost its way. Our government ran amok at home and abroad. They broke the laws of the land, lied to the public, and destroyed the social contract.
*cheers and applause*
Carter: But tonight is not just about what has gone wrong. Tonight we are here to introduce to America the man who's going to Washington to clean things up! Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next President of the United States...
Taken from the Democratic National Convention, July 18th, 1988
April 14th, 1988: The Geneva Accords are signed by the Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. These accords establish the framework for relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Included in the accords is the timetable for Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.
April 16th, 1988: Gary Hart sweeps the Arizona caucuses.
April 18th, 1988: In yet another surprise from a campaign famous for its unexpected victories Jesse Jackson takes the Delaware caucuses.
April 19th, 1988: In the New York Primary Michael Dukakis comes out just ahead of Gary Hart. In a repeat of his performance in 1984 Hart ekes out a narrow win over Dukakis in the Vermont caucuses.
April 22nd, 1988: Medea Benjamin, her husband Ken Danaher, and two other friends co-found Global Exchange in San Francisco, CA to advocate for fair trade, raise global warming awareness, and work to mitigate the damage of globalization.
April 25th, 1988: In an unexpected upset Michael Dukakis comes out on top in the Utah caucuses, pulling out a win over Gary Hart and breathing some new life into the campaign.
April 26th, 1988: Michael Dukakis picks up fresh momentum with his solid win in Pennsylvania over Hart and Jackson.
April 27th, 1988: Jesse Jackson announces his withdrawal from the race for the Presidency. At this time he has not endorse either remaining candidate, a factor weighing heavily on the Hart and Dukakis campaigns due to Jackson's substantial bloc of delegates.
May 3rd, 1988: Gary Hart recaptures the momentum in the Midwestcarrying the Ohio and Indiana primaries.
May 15th, 1988: Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan begins.
May 17th, 1988: Gary Hart solidly wins in the Oregon primaries. With only four primaries left many are wondering how the race will be resolved.
May 18th, 1988: Jesse Jackson endorses Gary Hart for President and asks his delegates to cast their votes at the convention for Hart.
May 19th, 1988: Michael Dukakis officially concedes the nomination, congratulating Gary Hart on a tough, well-run campaign and praises him as, "the man to lead America forward from our national nightmare."
June 8th, 1988: In the northern California Redwoods an Earth First! crew en route to a road blockade in the deep woods are ambushed by a group of unknown individuals assumed to be loggers. While no one is seriously injured, aside from one black eye and a head wound needing some serious stitches, when the incident is reported to the Humboldt County Sheriffs they make all the noises they're supposed to make, give every excuse in the book, and ultimately do nothing.
June 23rd, 1988: NASA scientist James Hansen testifies to the Senate that man-made global warming had begun.
June 28th, 1988: Four workers are exposed to poisonous gas at a metal-plating plant in Auburn, Indiana, in the worst confined-space industrial accident in U.S. history. A fifth victim dies two days later.
June 29th, 1988: Morrison v. Olson: The United States Supreme Court upholds the law allowing special prosecutors to investigate suspected crimes by executive branch officials.
July 3rd, 1988: Iran Air Flight 655 passes over the American warship USS Vincennes unmolested. Captain Will Rogers III, under strict orders from NAVCENT due to the atmosphere of intense scrutiny in Washington, hails the aircraft before firing and confirms it is a civilian airliner.
July 6th, 1988: The first reported medical waste on beaches in the Greater New York area, including hypodermic needles and syringes possibly infected with the AIDS virus, washes ashore on Long Island. Subsequent medical waste discoveries on beaches in Coney Island and in Monmouth County, New Jersey force the closure of numerous New York–area beaches in the middle of one of the hottest summers on record in the American Northeast.
July 10th, 1988: Gary Hart announces his choice for running mate: Senator Al Gore Jr. of Tennessee. Many in the press remark on his relative youth, his membership in the rising Atari Democrats, and on his relative lack of experience.
July 18th, 1988: The Democratic National Convention begins in Atlanta, Georgia at the Omni. Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas gives the opening night address and is mercilessly jeered at and heckled by the crowd with many party insiders at the convention openly wondering if his political career is going to be a dud.(2) He is followed up by Walter Mondale who has the crowd laughing, applauding, and cheering for him after opening with, "Remember me?"
July 19th, 1988: The Convention continues with Texas State Treasurer Ann Richards giving the keynote speech. In it she blasts Bush for his secrecy, his executive manipulations, and his CIA past at one point saying he was, "Born with a silver foot in his mouth."
July 20th, 1988: Following an address by Senator Ted Kennedy, noted for the refrain, "Where was George?", the delegates formally nominates Gary Hart as their candidate for President with Al Gore as his Vice President. Former President Jimmy Carter introduces the ticket. Other speakers that day include George McGovern, JFK Jr., and Jesse Jackson. The party also votes on its platform including several very liberal planks like cutting the Defense budget by 20% and implementing universal health care for all Americans.(3)
July 21st, 1988: Al Gore and Gary Hart give impressive, eloquent addresses to the convention. Gore calls for making, "American government accountable to the American people again."(4) Hart concludes with, "It's time to wake America up from the long, national nightmare."
August 6th, 1988: A riot erupts in Tompkins Square Park in New York City when police attempt to enforce a newly passed curfew for the park. That night a peaceful rally was held to protest the new curfew on the formerly 24 hour park. Between 300 and 500 protestors were in the park at 11:30PM when NYPD officers under Captain McNamara charged the crowd. Witnesses reported officers assaulting demonstrators, local residents, reporters, and pedestrians in a reckless, uncontrolled rampage. The melee continues for most of the night until 9:00 AM the following morning leaving over 130 people injured and scattered property damage in the immediate neighborhood. The people of New York loudly condemn the police for the violence with over a four hundred brutality complaints related to the riot filed to the Civilian Complaint Review Board in the following week.(5)
August 7th, 1988 6:00PM: The Tompkins Square Park Police Riot makes CBS headline news. Images of injured New Yorkers, smashed windows, and police officers rampaging through the streets of New York are plastered on televisions across the country. The piece includes interviews with two reporters who were assaulted by police officers, one of whom is wearing a neck brace, and with poet Allen Ginsburg who witnessed the riot. Later that evening Mayor Ed Koch rescinds the curfew on the park.
August 8th, 1988: Thousands of protesters in Burma, now known as Myanmar, are killed during anti-government demonstrations known as the 8888 Uprising.
August 15th, 1988: The Republican National Convention begins. Three very conspicuous absences from the proceedings are former President Ronald Reagan, former First Lady Nancy Reagan, and Reverend Pat Robertson. Elizabeth Dole gives the opening speech.
August 17th, 1988: John McCain gives the keynote address to the Republican National Convention. In it he calls for, "A return to the values of Americans like Abraham Lincoln and Dwight Eisenhower that made our country great," and to, "turn away from the temptations of power to which even the greatest men can succumb."(6) In the end he calls for moderation and healing.
August 18th, 1988: The Republican National Convention in New Orleans, Louisiana nominates George H.W. Bush for President and Dan Quayle for Vice President of the United States of America. In his acceptance speech he vows to, "keep America moving forward, always forward—for a better America, for an endless enduring dream and a thousand points of light" calling for, "a kinder, gentler nation."
August 19th, 1988: A ceasefire is called in the Iran-Iraq War. The same day Pat Robertson writes and publishes a blistering op-ed on the Republican National Convention claiming the GOP is, "sparing the rod and spoiling the child" with, "their retreat from traditional conservative principles."
August 24th, 1988: Following the conventions and their fallout the Hart campaign is enjoying a solid lead in most of the country over Bush. The latest polls put Hart's campaign at 51.7% and Bush at 48.3%. Many are citing Bush's lack of personal warmth, his out of touch air, and his evasiveness and connection to Iran-Contra as major concerns in contrast to Democratic ticket's youth, energy, and freshness.
August 25th, 1988: New York Police Commissioner Benjamin Ward issues a scathing report on the Tompkins Square Park Police Riot laying the blame solely at the local precinct citing a lack of proper briefing and preparation and the lack of control of the situation by Captain McNamara.
August 26th, 1988: An editorial titled, "Yes, a Police Riot" is published in the New York Times. The piece unequivocally lays the blame for the Tompkins Square Park Police Riot at the feet of the police citing poor control of the situation and poor preparation as the root causes of the brutality.
August 27th, 1988: Pat Robertson is interviewed on NPR regarding his recent statements and his role in the presidential elections. In it Robertson unequivocally states, "I will never endorse a man who forced his way into office and engaged in the most vicious smear tactics to keep his grasp on power." He says his non-endorsement should not be taken as support for the Democrats. "If anything", says Robertson, "I do not feel any of the candidates for president are what this country needs. We have anarchy in the streets and dishonesty in the halls of power because we have driven the Lord from our lives. Mark my words: one day we will pay for our folly!"
1. She'll show up again soon, I can say for certain that's definitely not OTL's Selena Gomez. OTL Gomez lives a largely normal life TTL and is never discovered by Hollywood.
2. This actually happened OTL. Clinton took a great deal of satisfaction from this moment when he won the nomination and the election in 1992.
3. The platform is as OTL but with added planks calling for cutting the Department of Defense budget by 20%, a single-payer health care system, and an overhaul of oversight and regulation of the Executive Branch as a whole. The DoD cuts and UHC are there in exchange for Jesse Jackson's support along with a high-level appointment on the table.
4. No, Gore's speech is not a total wooden nightmare. Hart's campaign got him a good speech coach which smooths out the awkwardness.
5. The crowd, injuries, and number of brutality complaints is larger as the general public atmosphere of distrust of authority c/o Iran-Contra means more people are showing up. This in turn means the already nasty situation is just going to get worse with more people getting caught up in the violence. OTL the crowd estimate was 150-200 people with 38 reported injuries and over a hundred police brutality complaints.
6. OTL Tom Keane gave the keynote speech. TTL he's staying away from the convention to prevent being associated with Bush in any way. That's also why Bob Dole and Joe Paterno also do not make appearances in the GOP convention.
If the theories that was Iran and not Lybia who was behind the attack against Lockerbie are true it is very possible to avoid Lockerbie bombing (the alleged reason for the theory of the possible Iranian involvement in the terrorist attack was precisely revenge of the shootdown of Iran Air Flight 655).
The evidence linking Libya to Lockerbie is pretty strong, it would be asinine to ignore it. For more info, read these stories:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/muammar-gaddafi-ordered-lockerbie-bombing-says-libyan-minister/story-e6frfku0-1226011070628
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8380133/Libya-rebel-leader-I-have-evidence-Gaddafi-ordered-Lockerbie.html
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That'll be covered in an update soon. Quiet could be a word for it.
It's going to be one of the many little things that stacks into much bigger things as the 90s unfolds. America's Middle East policy is going to wind up looking different while serving the same overall ends compared to OTL. One good parallel would be something like the British Raj.
On another note, like in the original TL, it'll be interesting to see how the environmental movement develops - especially with a fairly liberal president in power. Much like during Obama's first two years, there is great opportunity to pass some very serious and major legislation. This is especially prevalent with the what's happening in California in regards to the redwood forest and those loggers.
The other major thing that could change if Democrats were up for the fight and willing and able to make a the claim that they're NOT "weak on crime" would be ending or at least changing the nature of the "war on drugs" given how well connected it is to Reagan and his failed policies- they could change it from a class 1 scheduled drug to at least a class 3 and potentially open up the possibility of decriminalization/legalization much earlier than OTL. This could work if they could find some coalition with some more libertarian Republicans and perhaps Republicans who want to say "fuck off" to the religious wing of their party.
The other major thing that could change if Democrats were up for the fight and willing and able to make a the claim that they're NOT "weak on crime" would be ending or at least changing the nature of the "war on drugs" given how well connected it is to Reagan and his failed policies- they could change it from a class 1 scheduled drug to at least a class 3 and potentially open up the possibility of decriminalization/legalization much earlier than OTL. This could work if they could find some coalition with some more libertarian Republicans and perhaps Republicans who want to say "fuck off" to the religious wing of their party.
The environmental movement is definitely going to be a much stronger force TTL than OTL with all that goes with that. The important thing about the 1988 election and the environment is it halts the process of the partisan divide on the issue. This doesn't mean the entire political spectrum is lockstep on the issue; far from it! A better way to think of it is by 1996 no national or state level candidate would be able to run without a position on the environment that at least sounds like it isn't, "Drill baby drill!" This plus a number of other factors are going to make things really fun come 2000-2004.
Inoeth said:
It would be safe to say they will be taking a different approach for those reasons; one where each little step makes sense given the political context but when taken on the whole it leads to one ugly snowball effect. How the Drug War plays out is going to be one of the major elements in this TL to watch.
Inoeth said:
The Robertson flameout has kicked off the possibility of a really messy divorce between the GOP and the Religious Right. All I'm going to say beyond that is the Religious Right, just as they were OTL, is going to be a major player in how things shake out. The nature of their impact is going to be key to the eventual shattering of the two-party system.
That will definitely be the case. The main debate is going to be on whether it was during his first term or his second term and the big question is how far in which really varies depending on who you ask. Only the most hardcore leftists and liberals would claim he didn't lose it until after he left office (Nixon 2.0 theory) and by the same token only the most hardcore conservatives would try claiming he didn't slip until he was exiled to the Western White House just as the Senate trial was kicking into high gear. For the rest of the population the general consensus is he started losing it around late 1984 or early 1985 and its usually chalked up to the stresses of the re-election campaign.
One of the knock-on effects of this is younger candidates, outsider credentials, and most importantly visibly healthy candidates are going to be more common and desirable to both parties. Between Reagan's removal and Joe Biden's aneurysm candidate health is going to be a much bigger issue TTL than it was OTL. There's also going to be increased internal pressure for older elected officials on both sides of the aisle to step down if and when their age or health begins to be seen as a liability.
Bill Clinton, ironically enough, is going to unintentionally add some fuel to that fire. His eating habits are going to have some interesting political consequences later on down the line.
Here are some butterflies you can make to Lockerbie...
Have the South African foreign minister, Pik Botha, and his delegation on board Pan Am 103 (they were supposed to take it to sign the Angola treaty, but took Pan Am Flight 101 instead. Brent Carlsson, the UN commissioner who was assigned to take over, died on Pan Am 103).
The Four Tops, Sex Pistols member John Lydon and his wife, the top tennis player in 1988, Mats Wilander, and actress Kim Cattrall were all supposed to be on Flight 103, but missed it for various reasons.
In addition, have Flight 103 break up so that the fuel and wings fall on downtown Lockerbie. That should up the death toll considerably.
Libya likely did it, IMO, not Iran (though I can see why some people would think so, with Iran Air Flight 655 being shot down months earlier).
Here's a link to the Wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103.
Waiting for the next update.
Have the South African foreign minister, Pik Botha, and his delegation on board Pan Am 103 (they were supposed to take it to sign the Angola treaty, but took Pan Am Flight 101 instead. Brent Carlsson, the UN commissioner who was assigned to take over, died on Pan Am 103).
The Four Tops, Sex Pistols member John Lydon and his wife, the top tennis player in 1988, Mats Wilander, and actress Kim Cattrall were all supposed to be on Flight 103, but missed it for various reasons.
In addition, have Flight 103 break up so that the fuel and wings fall on downtown Lockerbie. That should up the death toll considerably.
Libya likely did it, IMO, not Iran (though I can see why some people would think so, with Iran Air Flight 655 being shot down months earlier).
Here's a link to the Wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103.
Waiting for the next update.