The Center Cannot Hold

Subscribed! :cool:

If I could make a suggestion for this TL, given the high capacity of butterflies of the Age of Telecommunications possibily all of a serie of events that could not necessarily change totally in this TL could change in the details.

For example in the ancestor of this TL (Iran-Contra and the fall of Ronald Reagan) a lot of events in Eastern Europe happen exactly the same, I think this could probably change, not necessarily in the final conclusion (the erosion or end of the Soviet Union control/dominion of Eastern Europe) because the conclusion was in great part caused by the decisions of Gorbachev but probably at least in the details.

To made it clearer: in Iran-Contra and the fall of the Ronald Reagan The fall of Berlin Wall happens exactly the same day and by the same cause (Schabowski mistake)

"November 9th, 1989: Günter Schabowski accidentally states in live broadcast press conference that new rules for traveling from East Germany to West Germany will be put in effect "immediately". East Germany opens checkpoints in the Berlin Wall, allowing its citizens to travel freely to West Germany for the first time in decades."

But probably with the great percentage of butterlfies of the Age of Telecommunications we could have the Berlin Wall falling in another date and by different cause.

For example

"2 december 1989: After weeks of protests a coup happens in Eastern Germany when the majority of members of the Politburo decides to oust Erich Honecker after the obstination of this in continuing with repressive measures that has not ended with the protests in the GDR. A troika composed by Egon Krenz, Werner Felfe and Siegfried Lorenz assumes the leadership in Eastern Germany.

12 december 1989: With pressure mounting in the streets and the pression also from Gorbachev the troika that leads the GDR decides to begin steps to introduce a new constitution based in Socialist Pluralism.

23 december 1989: The troika that leads the GDR announces that from 1 january 1990 frontiers between the GDR and FDR will be open with only the minimal necessary controls. This effectively ends with the Berlin Wall from the beginning of the new year 1990"

Or you could end the Berlin Wall in october 1989 or by another cause or with another leadership taking command.

The essence of my theory is that with so great percentage of butterflies cause by living in age of TV, radio, etc.. we woul have surely changes in the details althouh could be not in the final result: in this case the Berlin Wall Fall ( the case of the Soviet Union is different, there are so many variables that the final result could be the survival of the Soviet Union, but in the case of the GDR the principal factor was the will and thinking of Gorbachev so although changing in the details the final outcome - Berlin Wall fall- would be the same)
 
From what I'm seeing is the American population will loose all faith in the government sometime by 2005.

Something like that ;)

One thing I will say for certain: this will not be, and is not intended to be, a Dem-wank or a GOP-screw. Calling it an establishment-screw would be more accurate :D

Subscribed! :cool:

If I could make a suggestion for this TL, given the high capacity of butterflies of the Age of Telecommunications possibily all of a serie of events that could not necessarily change totally in this TL could change in the details.

For example in the ancestor of this TL (Iran-Contra and the fall of Ronald Reagan) a lot of events in Eastern Europe happen exactly the same, I think this could probably change, not necessarily in the final conclusion (the erosion or end of the Soviet Union control/dominion of Eastern Europe) because the conclusion was in great part caused by the decisions of Gorbachev but probably at least in the details.

To made it clearer: in Iran-Contra and the fall of the Ronald Reagan The fall of Berlin Wall happens exactly the same day and by the same cause (Schabowski mistake)

"November 9th, 1989: Günter Schabowski accidentally states in live broadcast press conference that new rules for traveling from East Germany to West Germany will be put in effect "immediately". East Germany opens checkpoints in the Berlin Wall, allowing its citizens to travel freely to West Germany for the first time in decades."

But probably with the great percentage of butterlfies of the Age of Telecommunications we could have the Berlin Wall falling in another date and by different cause.

For example

"2 december 1989: After weeks of protests a coup happens in Eastern Germany when the majority of members of the Politburo decides to oust Erich Honecker after the obstination of this in continuing with repressive measures that has not ended with the protests in the GDR. A troika composed by Egon Krenz, Werner Felfe and Siegfried Lorenz assumes the leadership in Eastern Germany.

12 december 1989: With pressure mounting in the streets and the pression also from Gorbachev the troika that leads the GDR decides to begin steps to introduce a new constitution based in Socialist Pluralism.

23 december 1989: The troika that leads the GDR announces that from 1 january 1990 frontiers between the GDR and FDR will be open with only the minimal necessary controls. This effectively ends with the Berlin Wall from the beginning of the new year 1990"

Or you could end the Berlin Wall in october 1989 or by another cause or with another leadership taking command.

The essence of my theory is that with so great percentage of butterflies cause by living in age of TV, radio, etc.. we woul have surely changes in the details althouh could be not in the final result: in this case the Berlin Wall Fall ( the case of the Soviet Union is different, there are so many variables that the final result could be the survival of the Soviet Union, but in the case of the GDR the principal factor was the will and thinking of Gorbachev so although changing in the details the final outcome - Berlin Wall fall- would be the same)

There's definitely going to be quite a few changes in how the fall of the Eastern Bloc unfolds, the situation with the Soviet Union, and how other events develop. There's also going to be quite a few changes as to how some domestic events unfold to give better foreshadowing and buildup.
 
Chapter 6: Wheat from Chaff


And before any man was taken, he would be put into a deep hole in the ground up to his middle, and he having his shield and a hazel rod in his hand. And nine men would go the length of ten furrows from him and would cast their spears at him at the one time. And if he got a wound from one of them, he was not thought fit to join with the Fianna.

Chapter II: Finn's Household, Gods and Fighting Men, Lady Augusta Gregory


"The 1988 campaign was a real rollercoaster ride! For the Democrats the field was anyone's game but what was happening in the Republican Party was probably just as important even though we didn't think so at the time. When Pat Robertson flamed out we thought the Moral Majority was finished. Boy were we wrong."

John Sasso from Rise of the Religious Right, produced & directed by Heidi Ewing & Rachel Grady, released August 25th, 2007


Senator Biden stands at a podium in front of a thicket of microphones. His wife is close at his side with the campaign staff flanking behind.

Biden: It is with the deepest regret that I must announce, for reasons of my personal health, that I am withdrawing from the race for the Presidency.

I have come to this decision after much thought and discussion with my wife and my personal physician. The risk of fatal consequences is too great for me to continue.

I want thank all my staff and volunteers for your incredible work. This campaign wouldn't have gotten where it has without you.

From CBS Evening News, February 10th, 1988(1)


Video Clip from Pat Robertson's February 17th stump speech

Robertson: As a marine who served in Korea I can tell you this: we never left a man behind!(2)

Frame freezes, then shifts to an elderly veteran

Marine Corps Lt. Colonel Jesse Anderson (ret): I remember Pat Robertson in Korea. He was the bartender at the Officers' Club.

Shifts to a still picture of Robertson mixing drinks for marines at a bar

Voiceover: If Pat Robertson lied about his military service, what else is he not telling us?

Shifts back to Lt. Colonel Anderson

Anderson: (laughs) he never came within ten miles of a combat zone.

Nationwide Ad released by the Re-elect President Bush Campaign, February 19th, 1988


February 10th, 1988: The Biden campaign issues a formal statement. Senator Biden was rushed to the hospital on the previous evening for emergency surgery for a near-fatal brain aneurysm. The campaign has announced he is out of the woods and his prognosis is good.

February 16th, 1988:
New Hampshire primary is held. At the first in the nation primary the competition is fierce on both sides. Dukakis ekes out a win, solidifying his campaign after its poor performance in Iowa, and is trailed close behind by Dick Gephardt. Gary Hart, the former front-runner, trails behind in third with many questioning if he can even win the nomination. On the Republican side the Bush campaign gets their first solid victory with the President just eking out ahead of Jack Kemp. Pete DuPont pulls off a fourth place finish as Robertson, buoyed by Iowa, pulls off a stronger than expected third place win.

February 17th, 1988:
Marine Lt. Colonel William R. Higgins is kidnapped in Lebanon while participating in a UN ceasefire monitor group. Pat Robertson, at a stump speech in Nevada, takes the opportunity to lambaste the United Nations for the Higgins kidnapping. He finishes by exclaiming, "As a marine who served in Korea I can tell you this: we never left a man behind!"

February 18th, 1988
: GOP Nevada caucus is swept by Pat Robertson. Following this additional dismal showing Pete DuPont bows out of the Presidential campaign. Many pundits are speculating if Pat Robertson and his "Moral Majority" will capture the nomination and what that could mean for the GOP's chances in November.

February 23rd, 1988:
At the Minnesota Caucuses Bush ekes out another narrow victory over Pat Robertson with Jack Kemp trailing distantly behind. Gary Hart pulls his first real victory in Minnesota, surprising many with his finish ahead of Dukakis. In the South Dakota primary Pat Robertson comes out on top with Bush coming in second while Dick Gephardt takes the polls by storm in the Democratic primary.

February 24th, 1988:
Hustler v Falwell: the Supreme Court rules against Jerry Falwell and overturns the $150,000 jury award. In their ruling the Court argues no reasonable person could see a parody as libelous. Robertson takes to the airwaves condemning the ruling as a sign of the, "Moral decay of America."

February 25th, 1988:
Oliver North and John Poindexter are indicted for perjury, violating the Boland Amendment, supplying arms to enemies of the United States, and all other related charges for their roles in Iran-Contra.

February 26th, 1988:
George Bush carries the Maine GOP caucus.

February 27th, 1988: Pat Robertson prevails in the Alaska GOP caucus.

February 28th, 1988:
Michael Dukakis carries the Maine Democrats caucus.

March 1st, 1988: In the Vermont Primary, a vanity contest with no delegates at stake, Bush and Dukakis come out on top in their respective party's contests.

March 5th, 1988: In the South Carolina GOP primary frontrunner and favorite Pat Robertson, in spite of strong in-state support, is crushed by George Bush's superior funds, vicious ad campaign, and massive organization. In the Wyoming Dems caucus Gary Hart wins the day, coming out on top over Al Gore and Dick Gephardt.

March 8th, 1988: Super Tuesday! This massive bloc of primaries is meant to be a make or break moment designed to sort out the nominee in short order. Its results would lead to massive upsets in both parties.

In the south George Bush's superior funding and organizational assets, coupled with the vicious ad campaign leveled against the comparatively underfunded Robertson, carries the day in most states with Robertson pulling a small upset in the Mississippi primary. On the Democratic side, with the exception of a surprise pickup for Gary Hart in Florida, the story of the South is dominated by the battle between Senator Al Gore and Reverend Jesse Jackson. When the dust settles most of the Upper South is carried by Gore with Jackson dominating in the Deep South winning Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia.

In the western states Gary Hart picks up on a lot of lost ground, carrying the Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, and Washington caucuses. In the Washington caucuses Robertson pulls off a late-night win in spite of accusations of Robertson supporters using parliamentary tricks to prevail.(3)

In Missouri and Oklahoma the results came down to the wire with a close victory for Bush in Missouri and Robertson coming out on top in Oklahoma. Dick Gephardt successfully carries his home state while Gary Hart wins in Oklahoma and in the Democratic primary in Texas pulling off a close victory over Dukakis. The story in the northeast is a much simpler one, with Michael Dukakis and Bush each carrying Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island in their respective party primaries.

March 9th, 1988: After extremely poor showings in the Super Tuesday primaries candidates Jack Kemp, Harold Stassen, and Alexander Haig all bow out of the GOP race with Kemp and Haig throwing their support behind George Bush. The only two candidates now left standing in the Republican Party are President George Bush and Reverend Pat Robertson.

March 10th, 1988:
Jesse Jackson, buoyed by an exceptional showing on Super Tuesday, carries the Alaska primaries.

March 12th, 1988: Jackson follows up his recent performance in Alaska with victory in South Carolina. Speculation is growing if Reverend Jackson might be the first African-American nominee for President.

March 14th, 1988: Pat Robertson, at a campaign rally in Chicago, gives a speech that will follow him for the rest of his life. During a heated rant aimed at the, "Declining morality in America" Robertson turns his attention from general depravity to figures within the Republican Party. He refers to Bush twice as the, "Acting President" saying he only holds office due to, "corrupt backroom shenanigans." He finishes by saying, "Such corrupt, high-handed actions are the kind I would expect in a Third World Dictatorship and not the United States of America!" Within hours the Bush campaign has the clip blanketing the airwaves of Illinois.

March 15th, 1988: George Bush, with growing momentum thanks to his crushing Super Tuesday victories over Pat Robertson, sweeps the Illinois primary with a 30 point margin, up 12% from the expected margin of victory.

March 16th, 1988:
Halabja Massacre. Iraqi forces bombard the town of Halabja with poison gas, killing between 3,000 and 5,000 people and injuring another 10,000. Pictures taken by Iranian freelance photographer Kaveh Golestan reach the media and hit the airwaves the next day.(4)

March 18th, 1988: Gary Hart, at a stump speech in Madison, Wisconsin, addresses the recent Iraqi atrocities and America's support. He vows under his administration all support for Iraq will cease and the United States will not grant military aid to any nations with a history of human rights abuses.

March 19th, 1988: Hart sweeps the Kansas Democratic caucuses.

March 26th, 1988: In a surprise upset Jesse Jackson sweeps the Michigan Democratic caucuses. Pundits are now speculating the race has come down to Hart and Jackson with Dukakis struggling for air.

March 27th, 1988: Gary Hart wins the North Dakota Democratic caucuses.

March 29th, 1988:
In the Connecticut primary Michael Dukakis carries the Democratic side which many chalking this up to his "home field" advantage. Either way the attention brought by the victory is good for the flagging Dukakis campaign. In the Republican primaries Pat Robertson's spirited but waning campaign is brutally trounced at the polls. Many are wondering why Robertson is still in the race.

April 4th, 1988:
At the Colorado Caucuses Gary Hart easily carries his home state. On the Republican side Robertson's efforts fail, with some of the caucus sessions seeing similar procedural tricks used to rig the vote as were reported in Washington state including one incident where a caucus chair and wife of a Robertson for President campaign worker held debate open long into the night to wait out the caucus-goers who supported Bush. When questioned on these tactics the Robertson campaign angrily denies any knowledge or involvement.

April 5th, 1988: The Wisconsin Primary. For the Republicans this is another contest where Bush's superior money and messaging machine will trounce Robertson's dying campaign. Robertson, for his part, has staked all the remaining resources he's got on winning Wisconsin. On the Democratic side this is seen by all remaining candidates as the state that will decide the nomination. With the exception of Michigan each candidate has done well in their home regions, with Gary Hart dominating in the West, Jesse Jackson running strong in the South, and Michael Dukakis ruling the roost in the Northeast. Whoever wins Wisconsin will be able to argue they have the necessary appeal to reach out to the whole country and everyone knows it.

The contest goes long into the night with the race very close in some districts. In the end Gary Hart comes out just on top with 35% of the vote followed by Michael Dukakis at 28%, Jesse Jackson at 24%, Al Gore at 9%, and Jerry Brown at 2%. Following these dismal results Jerry Brown drops out of the race, citing funding disadvantages as the main cause for his defeat.


April 6th, 1988: Two surprise announcements rock the Presidential contest.

At 9:00AM Pat Robertson held a press conference formally conceding the nomination to George Bush. In his speech he says little, thanking God and his family for supporting him in these trying times. He thanks his volunteers for all of their hard work saying, "We have done the Lord's Work these past months." He finishes by vowing to continue his work, "on behalf of Christ in America."

At 6:00PM former presidential candidate Joe Biden officially announces his endorsement of Gary Hart for the Democratic nomination. He says, "Gary is the man who can bring America back together again."

April 7th, 1988: Al Gore, having finished in a distant fourth place in Wisconsin, officially ends his candidacy for the Presidency and endorses Michael Dukakis for the Democratic nomination saying, "Governor Dukakis is the man to lead America into the future!"




1. OTL a brain aneurysm in early February forced Biden to bow out of the campaign. I see no reason why he would conclude differently, especially since a President has just been removed from office due to his medical fitness.

2. OTL Robertson claimed, among other things, that he served as a Marine in combat in the Korean War. The real truth is quite a bit less glamorous.

3. Which also happened OTL. Robertson's campaign never had a chance.

4. Iran-Contra, the Pell Hearings, and the earlier outrage over an Iraqi atrocity TTL means incidents like this get much more attention from the media. It's in the zeitgeist and, as the saying goes, "If it bleeds it leads."
 
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Very nice - I'm so glad to see this story/TL returning and I look forward to seeing the TL catch up to where it was in the original one and go forward through time. I truly wonder how the butterflies will affect both parties in how they lean politically and what it will be for the country regarding health care, infrastructure, the war on drugs, the environment and LGBT rights and the funding and planning of NASA among other things. There's also the great question of with different Presidents in power, how foreign affairs will be handled and what international events will be butterflied or at least, changed. Particularly, the Gulf War and later, the situations in (soon to be the former) Yugoslavia, Somalia and Rwanda.
 
it was Al Gore in the first TL. For this one, I dunno- i'm not sure if enough has really changed from the first one to be cause for a different choice for VP.

While i'd love to see Jesse Jackson(both because he'd be the first African American VP and the most liberal Democrat in a place of high office time.) bat the time, I don't think that'd work. It'll probably be the same thing we saw in the original TL- a more liberal party position on defense cuts, UHC, reform of executive branch and a cabinet position.

I could also see Biden and/or Dukakis as potential nominees. I'd also love to see a woman in the VP's position. Given that this really is the Democrat's election to lose, they really could 'get away with' having either an African American or a woman as VP and it would really help their image greatly. On the other hand, picking someone more controversial like someone of color- particularly Jackson, or a woman, could in fact hurt the Democrats on down-ticket races that are close- tho i'm just not quite that familiar with the politics of this time, especially when all the butterflies of the Iran-Contra scandal are factored in.
 
Could be Dukakis, since having Biden on the ticket, after he had an aneurysm, would be very risky. Clinton and Cuomo could also be choices.
 
Could be Dukakis, since having Biden on the ticket, after he had an aneurysm, would be very risky. Clinton and Cuomo could also be choices.

Well it can't be Biden since he's already dropped out TTL due to said aneurysm. OTL Cuomo stays out, my read on him is he was never interested in going beyond New York State politics and the statehouse in Albany and Bill Clinton ALMOST jumped in to the race in 1988 OTL but at the last minute backed out. TTL he's definitely not jumping in; the field's too strong, he's too new, and the zeitgeist is not in favor of his brand of Democratic politics. Granted when it comes to the nuts and bolts Clinton, Gore, and Hart aren't REALLY that different on a substantive level but presentation matters for quite a bit in American politics.

I have a feeling social conservatism is going to be stronger in the 2000s and 2010s...

Let's just say it's going to be in a very different place TTL than it was OTL. What happens to the Religious Right is going to be one of the many factors that will be driving the events of this TL. For now all we have is Pat Robertson denied, humiliated, and good odds most of the evangelical rank and file are going to stay home on election day but the way it unfolded is going to have much bigger implications than anyone in 1988 TTL expects.
 
This is the revised version, I tried posting it in Finished TLs but the mods bounced it back here. In particular its going to give a better explanation of some of the changes alluded to in prior discussion and thematically is going to have a much broader scope than Reagan's downfall.

Theres a limit on how many words constitute a post.
 
"The 2008 campaign was a real rollercoaster ride! For the Democrats the field was anyone's game but what was happening in the Republican Party was probably just as important even though we didn't think so at the time. When Pat Robertson flamed out we thought the Moral Majority was finished. Boy were we wrong."

John Sasso from Rise of the Religious Right, produced & directed by Heidi Ewing & Rachel Grady, released August 25th, 2007

I'm assuming this is a typo and you meant to say 1988, right? Roberston would be a little old for 2008 and this documentary was released a year before 2008 too.

Very good timeline and looking forward to more. Even if the Religious Right rises later on in this timeline, I hope they're crushed before present day.
 
I'm assuming this is a typo and you meant to say 1988, right? Roberston would be a little old for 2008 and this documentary was released a year before 2008 too.

Yup, call that a Freudian slip lol. 2008 TTL is going to be fun and OTL is was pretty nuts as-is.

Shadowlord said:
Very good timeline and looking forward to more. Even if the Religious Right rises later on in this timeline, I hope they're crushed before present day.

There's a couple of very important things one must understand about the Religious Right to get a better sense of why this TL will unfold as it does.

The first is, while this is not the case with all of them, many of the higher-ups are driven or at least influenced by the philosophy known as Christian Dominionism. It's basically the same thing at the root level as Islamic stuff like the Taliban but is based on American evangelical Christianity as opposed to a specific interpretation of Islam. The bottom line of Dominionism is the belief that good Christians must take over government and bring it back in line with the Will of God.

The second is nearly all of the heavy weights in that movement, which is a notoriously top-down affair especially compared to stuff like Earth First!, are very ruthless, canny political operators. It took them a good twenty years from their first alliance with Reagan to the election of Bush the Younger to reach their high water mark OTL and they were perfectly willing to wait all that time to pull it off. With Reagan turning into a very stinky albatross around their necks they need to do something to turn around and harness their large, active, and easy to mobilize base into action that will work long-term.
 
I fully agree LHB. I can very well see them sitting out this election and possibly the one after that- giving the Democrats the Presidency, possibly along with the House and Senate- thus giving them tons of rope with which to hang themselves with via stupid legislation and scandals. Then, they can primary themselves a candidate who, while normally wouldn't win, because of whatever the Democrats screwed up with, they can eek out a victory.

Alternatively, they don't even need the Democrats to screw up all that much, just having the rank and file Republicans fail enough to allow their candidates of choice to get into the race and succeed. Either way, they'll win in the medium term.

The real question tho is long term. Just like today, if/when they do get into power and start legislating their agenda, there will be a backlash from just about every minority (as well as liberal white people). Additionally, just as it can been seen today, the same evangelicals will most likely make enemies of large groups of people that would otherwise agree with them (latinos for instance). In the end, while they may get into power for a short period of time, I can't see any of their legislation lasting all that long before people realize just how zealous they are and boot them and their agendas out of office and show both how hypocritical and sleazy their politicians are - ie, no different or even worse than every other politician.

In the short to medium term however, is the question of who will Hart's running mate be, how much power will they have over the government (supermajority?) and therefore what and how much legislation can they push through in the first two years before midterms come up- and of course, what happens during those midterm elections. More medium to long term is will this legislation, pushed through during a time in which the liberal wing of the Democrats hold the most power actually last?

I look forward to the next update.
 
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