The Bloody Pearl Of The Orient: What if China went to war with the UK over Hong Kong

[Fordius25!]

So disclaimer: I am partially gonna rely on a narrative set by Wargame: Red Dragon's Pearl Of The Orient campaign which focuses on a Chinese invasion of Hong Kong and the UK's defense of the colony. I will use some aspects of the story, whilst fleshing out the narrative in a broader context. Also first time here




( Map created by the Central Intelligence Agency of US Government of British Hong Kong)




British Hong Kong/ 香港





1982-1983: Official negotiations between the People's Republic of China and Great Britain begin over the question of the future status of the Crown Colony of Hong Kong, as the lease on the New Territories nears its end in 1997. One of the last colonial territories in East Asia, Hong Kong had risen from the ashes of Japanese occupation in WWII and was thriving as a regional economic and manufacturing powerhouse. While tensions still lingered in the colony following the war: by the 1980s, British administration and law became generally accepted amongst the populace and Hong Kong remained a land of opportunity and prosperity as one of the four Asian Tigers.

For China, Hong Kong was a sore reminder of its 'century of humiliation' and the legacy of the 'unequal treaties' it had been coerced to sign. It was imperative for the country to reunify its former territories and correct the injustice that was the colonial rule by Britain and reclaim the territory. For Britain however, Hong Kong became an adopted region of the mother country, one which had prospered under British rule and one whose denizens associated strongly with British culture. The question in the minds of both sides was who would rule Hong Kong?

Britain takes the initiative and first proposes that China reclaim the sovereignty of Hong Kong, but that the British administration be allowed to continue in the territory. Deng Xiaoping firmly rejects this, making clear that China seeks the total return of the colony and that any colonial presence would not be tolerated. Deadlocks and obstructions in the tense negotiations continued- something that the people of Hong Kong do not fail to notice. The total uncertainty over the situation causes bank runs across the territory and the Hang Seng Index plummets to a historic low. Governor Edward Youde and the Executive Council in response seek to allay the chaos and vote in a massive stimulus bill to stabilize the deteriorating markets, the most comprehensive in the city's history to date. To support the colonial administration, Prime Minister Thatcher pledges in a session of Parliament to unwaveringly uphold Britain's obligations to the people of Hong Kong. The PRC also responds, assuring investors that Hong Kong's 'inevitable return' will not affect their standing and that it would be business as usual and accuses Britain of causing the financial ruin of the territory.

During another round of negotiations, Deng takes the offensive and bluntly threatens Thatcher an invasion of Hong Kong, and demolish any vestige of British rule. Not taking this aggression lightly, Thatcher responds that such an act will expose China's 'true nature' to the world and the meeting ends in discord. Panic further erupts in Hong Kong Island, as the Royal Hong Kong Police struggle to contain the chaos in the city. Meanwhile, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party convenes in a secret meeting to discuss a planned invasion of Hong Kong. Similarly, a meeting of the Privy Council takes place which discusses a planned defense of the territory. It seemed increasingly clear that the question of invasion was not an if, but a when?

Though unsettling Governor Youde, Thatcher orders Hong Kong's garrison to be considerably reinforced while HMS Newcastle docks in Victoria Harbor and plans to sell HMS Antrim are scrapped. British forces in Brunei are put on alert and plans are made to send HMS Illustrious to reinforce a potential invasion. In the UN, ambassadors Sir John Thomson and Ling Qing fiercely battle it out on the diplomatic stage as countries from the Third World sympathize with China's 'decolonization struggle' while the Commonwealth Realms stay loyal to their 'mother country' and support Hong Kong's perceived view to remain British. Resolutions in the Security Council are vetoed by the opposing side. The United States remains keen observers, contemplating whether a British defense is viable and whether to bolster the 'special relationship' it has with the UK.

Things come to a head in June 1983, when Prime Minister Thatcher announces a referendum in September, allowing Hong Kong to 'determine' whether it desires to remain under British sovereignty or otherwise. This infuriates the Chinese who denounce the plot as a ploy. As the date nears, pro-democracy and pro-Beijing voices viciously fight to persuade Hong Kongers to support their sides and China becomes more inclined to invade. A tense shooting across the border which injures five Chinese and British guards only intensifies the looming prospect.

In a final bid to recover negotiations between the two, a group of prominent Hong Kongers proposes to mediate a new round in the hopes that tensions de-escalate and some stability can be provided. However, like the preceding meetings, discussions once again end up nowhere and both countries consider any diplomacy to be futile

With less than three days before the deciding referendum takes place, China masses hundreds of Type 59 tanks less than 1km from the border in a show of force to intimidate Britain to back down. British guards watch carefully, waiting for any move by the Chinese with each side wondering whether they really would be going to war...

 

[Fordius25!]

PART 2: The Blockade begins


Following the border incident, Sino-British relations deteriorate even further. The British Embassy in Beijing becomes a frequent site for mob protests with staff being trapped inside the Embassy complex for multiple hours. Despite diplomatic protests over the threats made to embassy staff, China remains indifferent to the situation and Sir Percy Craddock, who is personally against Thatcher's stance resigns in protest and urges MPs and Prime Minister Thatcher to end their stubborn position on retaining Hong Kong.

To rally support for Britain and the colony, Thatcher calls for an emergency Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in London. The meetings prove tense, with most Caribbean and African states refusing to back the British position that Hong Kong should be defended in the case of hostilities. The Commonwealth realms pledge that while they would support the referendum to take place and support Hong Kong's position in the Commonwealth, they would not be able to guarantee a commitment of military aid without proposing to their respective parliaments. In London, the opposition decries the Conservative's aggressive policy on the territory, though they support the referendum's upcoming results.

Then on a fateful day, the referendum's is held across Hong Kong. The Royal Hong Kong Police Force's presence across the city appears ubiquitous, ready to respond to potential violence. The results come in with a small but definitive majority vote for remaining British. Though feted by Thatcher as 'a brilliant exercise of democracy', China's rage reaches a fever pitch high. The next day, China terminates diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom and announces a complete suspension of all water and food supplies to Hong Kong across the border. Not since the 1967 leftist riots, had Hong Kong been in such a worse position. Governor Youde grimly invokes the Emergency Regulation ordinance and declares a state of emergency in Hong Kong

The crisis gives the UK a further impetus to strengthen its diplomatic position on the international stage. Harshly condemning China's 'sadistic punishment' for Hong Kong's democratic processes, Thatcher addresses the United Nations General Assembly and rallies all democratic and sympathetic nations to aid Hong Kong's dire situation. In Hong Kong, the Legislative Council moves to speed up land reclamation and desalination plant projects while Governor Youde visits Malaysia and negotiates deliveries of water to the colony, guarded by Royal Navy vessels to prevent any Chinese incursion. Popular support encourages Congress to act and a veto by President Reagan to halt aid to Hong Kong (in favor of de-escalation) is overturned. Vietnam, wary of a Chinese victory, secretly provides Britain with access to the Cam Ranh Air Base. Discussions begin between India and the UK over the possible deployment of additional Indian armed and paramilitary forces at the Sino-Indian border, in a bid to reduce the focus of Chinese forces on the territory should hostilities break out and even the usage of INS Vikrant, formerly HMS Hercules.

In Canada, support for Hong Kong proves complicated. Whilst Ontario and the Maritime provinces strongly advocate for Canadian military and humanitarian support to Hong Kong, Quebec steadfastly opposes. The legacy of forced conscription in Quebec, as well as the national recession, greatly divides the Confederation over whether to aid Britain. In the end, the Commons vote for aid with only a narrow majority of 3 votes, only intensifying Quebecois' demands for outright sovereignty and independence. Despite the growing movement for complete independence from the UK as well as republican sentiment, Prime Minister Hawke and the ALP pledges Australian support for Hong Kong. Australia also suspends plans to scrap HMAS Melbourne until a 'resolution is achieved on the status of Hong Kong' and mobilizes the RAN

But how long could Hong Kong sustain itself from outright Chinese hostility? The outpouring of food and economic aid bolsters the city's stand and only further frustrates China's bid to subdue Hong Kong and her tolerance with the rebellious territory wanes by each day...

 

[EternalCynic]

Deng would be really playing with fire. His authority within the CCP wasn't completely secure at that point, and these events would seriously damage his own accomplishments.

There's also the consideration that the colony was highly dependent on water and fresh food from the mainland, and these would be cut off well before any military action.

 

[Fordius25!]

Deng would be really playing with fire. His authority within the CCP wasn't completely secure at that point, and these events would seriously damage his own accomplishments.

There's also the consideration that the colony was highly dependent on water and fresh food from the mainland, and these would be cut off well before any military action.

Yeah, I was hoping someone would raise the resource issue.

It is very much true that he could have starved Hong Kong. Something I'll address in part 2 (I'm thinking of a Berlin airlift style thing and a mass drive to establish desalination and water reclaimation). Not without losses and starvation of people, but enough to allow a British hold on the colony

I feel that Deng was already emboldened after essentially softly purging the army after Vietnam. In reality, Thatcher was much more pragmatic than I portray here but for the sake of it I portray her as more confrontational in this AH

Additionally I feel that as Deng had insisted that economic reasons were not justifiable for the British to retain the colony, that he would have been willing to overlook HK's economy in a bid to reintegrate

All a creative license to history I must add

 

[EternalCynic]

If you want creative license, why not let Deng have health problems and create jostling within the CCP leadership?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The real issue here - is that the People army is 20 X the size of Her Majesty's army

The other real issue is that Her Majesty's army is based on the other side of the world while the Peoples Army is...well its right there on the border.

There would have to be a real problem internally in China (and to be honest some form of insanity going on in the UK as well for HMG of the day to even consider it) in order for this happen.

Great game though and I kicked the stuffing out of the Chinese when I played it - especially once I had learned how to use the Tonkas correctly and could land a big cluster of bombs on their suspected positions without getting the the things shot down

 

[Intergallactic]

Definitely interested

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Looks like a great scenario. Ultimately, the Peoples' Liberation Army has the manpower to overwhelm Hong Kong. The reaction of the rest of the world will be, at least to me, the most interesting. Andropov has just assumed power in the USSR and has his Afghan War with a cease fire that was breaking down. Section 5 of the NATO Treaty is not implicated but there will be concerns that the war might spread to Europe, depending of course on Soviet reactions. North Korea was losing ground compared to South Korea and was losing its economic importance to China as Deng reformed the Chinese economy. Kim Il-sung would face an interesting series of choices. My sense is that most African nations would verbally side with China but not not, probably could not, materially contribute to the Chinese efforts. The same is probably true of the small nations of teh British Commonwealth. Australia and Canada would be able to do something if they wanted, The Canadian economy was in a recession and the elder Trudeau was not a big fan of the Iron Maiden. In Australia Hawke had just become Prime Minister.

 

[Fordius25!]

If you want creative license, why not let Deng have health problems and create jostling within the CCP leadership?

That acc is prob a good idea. Deng irl had lung cancer so let it develop 14 years early
That said his death would add greater tension, and there could be a warring faction led by Chen Yun who advocate for invasion and Zhao Ziyang leading the more liberal side. In the end Chen's faction wins out and an invasion takes place

 

[Fordius25!]

The real issue here - is that the People army is 20 X the size of Her Majesty's army

The other real issue is that Her Majesty's army is based on the other side of the world while the Peoples Army is...well its right there on the border.

There would have to be a real problem internally in China (and to be honest some form of insanity going on in the UK as well for HMG of the day to even consider it) in order for this happen.

Great game though and I kicked the stuffing out of the Chinese when I played it - especially once I had learned how to use the Tonkas correctly and could land a big cluster of bombs on their suspected positions without getting the things shot down

So the idea is a bit insane and as I say, I give Thatcher a more jingoistic perspective than in IRL. That said force projection is key for both sides. China's army was still relatively poorly trained and its navy was a mess. As you'd know in the game, Canada and Australia/NZ (maybe reluctantly but never explored) commit reinforcements to the area. Also, it is unfeasible to say the entire Chinese army would be amassed on the tiny border. No doubt there are loads but not the entire army- which the same applies for the Brits. So the idea of a gradual reinforcement before hostilities break out gives it a better chance, while like with the Falklands, US surveillance and even provision of Sidewinder missiles can help. Heck, even the Soviet Union may have its chance to stab its rival by supporting Britain.

My endgoal is describing a bloody war of attrition which gives the British a very pyrrhic victory, as Chinese troops lose morale and withdraw. That said the pyrrhic would have devastating consequences for the city and the UK as a whole

 

[Fordius25!]

Looks like a great scenario. Ultimately, the Peoples' Liberation Army has the manpower to overwhelm Hong Kong. The reaction of the rest of the world will be, at least to me, the most interesting. Andropov has just assumed power in the USSR and has his Afghan War with a cease fire that was breaking down. Section 5 of the NATO Treaty is not implicated but there will be concerns that the war might spread to Europe, depending of course on Soviet reactions. North Korea was losing ground compared to South Korea and was losing its economic importance to China as Deng reformed the Chinese economy. Kim Il-sung would face an interesting series of choices. My sense is that most African nations would verbally side with China but not not, probably could not, materially contribute to the Chinese efforts. The same is probably true of the small nations of teh British Commonwealth. Australia and Canada would be able to do something if they wanted, The Canadian economy was in a recession and the elder Trudeau was not a big fan of the Iron Maiden. In Australia Hawke had just become Prime Minister.

I have mentioned how nations in the third world sphere would back China. But I doubt they'd send arms or supplies apart from standard trade.

Your point with Trudeau is interesting, and I'd think that English Canada and French Canada have a bitter dispute (Quebec having a bitter legacy of WWI/WWII conscription). In the end, I'd say the Parliament of Canada narrowly votes in measures to send forces to HK. Australia may seem also less inclined to do the same, but the US's secret urging may persuade Hawke to openly support HK's position in the commonwealth.

You also raise the point of the Commonwealth. Some nations will grovel at the prospect of the UK defending a colonial entity. That said I believe India has a strong stake in the position, given the considerable population of Indians in the territory. Tensions with China may also persuade India to send in some naval detachment to support Britain, whilst reinforcing mountain forces along with the Chinese border. The possibility of India (which is remote but kinda plausible) intervening would make it much more difficult for China and easier for Britain

 

[QTXAdsy]

Ah yes, I remember this in the game and I'm glad it's getting some love for a TL!

IIRC in the game, all the British forces stationed in Hong Kong simply have to hold off the waves of Chinese attacks until reinforcements arrive which by that point Chinese forces would be low on moral and the combined Commonwealth forces expel them back over the border and ends in surrender from China.

That is ofc if everything works in favour for the British however India could be a wildcard that helps tip the balance in favour for the UK though I don't think the Soviets would be willing to stab China in the back and likely stay out of it, unless ofc relations between Moscow and Beijing reach a low here.

If China loses here then expect the country to be gripped in turmoil that might see a collapse of the communist party, Tibet uses the chance to gain independence, Taiwan will be delighted and North Korea would freak out that their closest neighbour falls apart.

Speaking of which I wonder if down the line that if China ends up in turmoil and the USSR still falls apart like in OTL, I do wonder if this makes a second Korean war more likely as they'd be somewhat on their own?

Either way I hope you update soon!

 

[Bougnas]

Ah yes, I remember this in the game and I'm glad it's getting some love for a TL!

IIRC in the game, all the British forces stationed in Hong Kong simply have to hold off the waves of Chinese attacks until reinforcements arrive which by that point Chinese forces would be low on moral and the combined Commonwealth forces expel them back over the border and ends in surrender from China.

That is ofc if everything works in favour for the British however India could be a wildcard that helps tip the balance in favour for the UK though I don't think the Soviets would be willing to stab China in the back and likely stay out of it, unless ofc relations between Moscow and Beijing reach a low here.

If China loses here then expect the country to be gripped in turmoil that might see a collapse of the communist party, Tibet uses the chance to gain independence, Taiwan will be delighted and North Korea would freak out that their closest neighbour falls apart.

Speaking of which I wonder if down the line that if China ends up in turmoil and the USSR still falls apart like in OTL, I do wonder if this makes a second Korean war more likely as they'd be somewhat on their own?

Either way I hope you update soon!

The irony is that in the game you can abuse airborne battlegroup mechanics to end the campaign at turn 2 or 3 while wiping out Chinese forces.

 

[Rfl23]

I have a feeling asean nation will have a part in this

 

[HMS St.Lawrence]

Interesting start, I'll be watching this!

With the UK at war with China, the Aussies are damn sure not sending HMAS Melbourne to the scrappers in Canton. You only provided dates in 1983 and don't know if you've considered it but: if negociations were already falling appart in the late summer of 1982 (or at least looking very bad) maybe Melbourne's airgroup isn't disbanded immediately and she can see some action in this?
That may be a little far-fetched but certainly the British wouldn't turn their backs on any potential air support by this point.

 

[Fordius25!]

Interesting start, I'll be watching this!

With the UK at war with China, the Aussies are damn sure not sending HMAS Melbourne to the scrappers in Canton. You only provided dates in 1983 and don't know if you've considered it but: if negociations were already falling appart in the late summer of 1982 (or at least looking very bad) maybe Melbourne's airgroup isn't disbanded immediately and she can see some action in this?
That may be a little far-fetched but certainly the British wouldn't turn their backs on any potential air support by this point.

I actually just edited that in before I saw your post lol. I also considered India potentially sending INS Vikrant as aerial aid. HMS Illustrious, INS Vikrant and HMAS Melbourne would be certainly a formidable combo

 

[HMS St.Lawrence]

I actually just edited that in before I saw your post lol. I also considered India potentially sending INS Vikrant as aerial aid. HMS Illustrious, INS Vikrant and HMAS Melbourne would be certainly a formidable combo

Yes I've just seen that too. Of course the RAN'S Skyhawks are a little outdated as fleet interceptor but they are still capable of hauling buch of 500 and 1000 pounds bombs and the Trackers could be very useful ASW assets thanks to their great autonomy (the RN doesn't have carrier-borne fixed-wing patrol aircrafts).
I'm not sure about the Indian Navy though. India share a land border with China and getting directly involved might have greater consequences for them than it is actually worth. Not to mention that their carrier's airgroup is beginning to show it's age and I doubt Sea Hawks and Alizés could be actually useful in 1983.

P.S very small nitpick: when citing ships names you should put them in italic, for example; HMS Illustrious.

 

[Fordius25!]

Yes I've just seen that too. Of course the RAN'S Skyhawks are a little outdated as fleet interceptor but they are still capable of hauling buch of 500 and 1000 pounds bombs and the Trackers could be very useful ASW assets thanks to their great autonomy (the RN doesn't have carrier-borne fixed-wing patrol aircrafts).
I'm not sure about the Indian Navy though. India share a land border with China and getting directly involved might have greater consequences for them than it is actually worth. Not to mention that their carrier's airgroup is beginning to show it's age and I doubt Sea Hawks and Alizés could be actually useful in 1983.

P.S very small nitpick: when citing ships names you should put them in italic, for example; HMS Illustrious.

I'll keep it in mind with other ships aha.

The reason I say India is for a few reasons.

1. It is a wild card
2. India would have a vested interest in the small albeit prominent indian population in HK
3. India-China hostilities have historically been very prominent, and Indira Gandhi's and Thatcher's relations were relatively cordial. The high level of Indian nationalism could have led to a renewed aggressive push to 'reclaim' Aksai Chin. China being weakened or even outright defeated by Britain would have benefitted India due to China being Pakistan's foremost ally at the time, so playing their card rights (ie doing a Chile and stationing troops near the mountainous border and drawing portions of the PLA away from Hong Kong).

You're right the carriers are quite outdated. But China didn't have any at the time, so unless China massed huge amounts of AA weaponry the aircraft carriers would still have a mark on the conflict

 

[BlackDragon98]

You're right the carriers are quite outdated. But China didn't have any at the time, so unless China massed huge amounts of AA weaponry the aircraft carriers would still have a mark on the conflict

You do realize that those carriers will be facing the full force of the PLAAF right?
Not to mention the dozens of missile boats that the PLAN will deploy against the carriers.
Against such opposition, all those carriers will be sunk sooner or later.

 

[marktaha]

I once heard that if the Chinese had decided to take Hong Kong the British garrison wouldn't have even been allowed to resist.We could hardly have fought the world's largest army from thousands of miles away.