Interesting- for some reason, Napoleonic timelines always seem to get hung up either on Waterloo or the invasion of Russia. Those are fascinating moments, certainly, but I think you've rightly identified the time in between as being a ripe source of might-have-beens, where a shift in the balance could have ended up with radically different Europes.
The Ballet of Europe: Pas de deux for a nice-legged Gascon sergeant and a little Corsican corporal
- Thread starter Redolegna
- Start date
A radically (and a bit radical) Europe is something I'm interested in exploring, yes. There's not much to salvage from the Spanish campaign unless Napoléon decided to go there personally in 1810-1811 rather than enjoying a bit of rest, although he probably had earned some. The Russian campaign as it was executed is a pure shambles. What is interesting, though, is that we tend to focus on the fact that the Grande Armée was virtually wiped out by the end of 1812. But that's forgetting that the same thing happened to the Russian army. So both sides had to start over from scratch but Napoléon was better at drafting men. He allegedly once said a very callous thing: 'J'ai trois cent mille hommes de rente.' Meaning that with his conscription system, he could draw on 300,000 new soldiers every year. And that's true... Up to 1813. After that, he lost so much territory and he was attacked directly on French soil (something which had not happened for fifteen years) that his manpower pool could only be reconstituted by taking younger and younger recruits. You could say he was borrowing men instead of just accruing the interest. By the time of Waterloo, he had all of Europe truly united against him. With a bit more luck, or skill, or staff work, he might have won against Blücher then Wellington or the reverse. But he couldn't draw enough recruits to face the Austrians, the Russians and the remaining Prussians. One way to have him win 1815 is to have Murat get killed so he does not pull a stunt in the Two Sicilies Kingdom and war might be averted. But I'm firmly of the opinion that post-Leipzig, Napoléon couldn't win purely on the battlefield. By contrast, in 1813, while some people were very actively considering knifing him in the back, he still controlled a huge amount of Europe and could field truly impressive armies. So there was a chance. Not a big one, because he was not very good at promoting independent commanders, but I have been so often to Sweden and laughed myself silly at the truly epic rise of Bernadotte that I knew I had to try something with the both of them in cahoots once again.
And while there is obviously a very positive immediate outcome for Napoléon in Prussia, getting Bernadotte back on his side has enormous ramifications. I haven't revealed all of them yet but there is a hint in von Bülow's musings in the prologue.
longsword14
Banned
Concerning Bernadotte:
From what I have read Bernadotte was a climber but very cautious. He also did not truly consider Napoleon his superior (as other marshals did because Napoleon made them what they were) because they both once served at roughly the same position.
Could Bernadotte really do as he did without blowback from his country men?
Great work !
From what I have read Bernadotte was a climber but very cautious. He also did not truly consider Napoleon his superior (as other marshals did because Napoleon made them what they were) because they both once served at roughly the same position.
Could Bernadotte really do as he did without blowback from his country men?
Great work !
There'll be blowback. But Bernadotte, the wily one, has a trump card that should make all Swedes forgive him in a New York minute. And there's another reason for Bernadotte and Napoléon's weird dynamic. Hint: it's gotta do with Napoléon's frankly weird lovelife.
Caught up again!
A very technical update the last one was, but that is in no way meant to be a criticism! I much appreciate the extreme care you are taking in setting up this very fine tuning. Keep at it!
A very technical update the last one was, but that is in no way meant to be a criticism! I much appreciate the extreme care you are taking in setting up this very fine tuning. Keep at it!
Caught up again!
A very technical update the last one was, but that is in no way meant to be a criticism! I much appreciate the extreme care you are taking in setting up this very fine tuning. Keep at it!
Why, thank you, good sir!
longsword14
Banned
Bernadotte was competent ,but he was not a Davout or a Massena. The only POD here seems to be a change in his behaviour. Post Russia Napoleon would be busy holding Germany so he can not interfere with Sweden. What about not getting Norway from Sweden?
To have a good time as king Bernadotte would have to do nothing or better have Norway from Denmark. To me it looks like taking the offensive against anyone would not be worth it, especially without Austria leaning towards the coalition. In OTL King Johan did not contribute much to the allied cause either. Looks like this Bernadotte is finally showing his fire!
To have a good time as king Bernadotte would have to do nothing or better have Norway from Denmark. To me it looks like taking the offensive against anyone would not be worth it, especially without Austria leaning towards the coalition. In OTL King Johan did not contribute much to the allied cause either. Looks like this Bernadotte is finally showing his fire!
Napoléon is perfectly fine with Bernadotte haring off to another theater. Anything that will keep the Coalition distracted while their three leaders are under siege. But since he can't offer Norway (the alliance to the Danes, while not vital, remains important and frees a great deal of French troops), you have to consider just what he proposed to our future Karl XIV Johan?
And Bernadotte actually made a vital contribution to the Coalition, although it wasn't on the battlefield but before that, when they were planning just how to deal with the menace that Napoléon was.
longsword14
Banned
The plan to avoid Napoleon unless the coalition badly outnumbered him was Bernadotte's plan, as I remember.Napoléon is perfectly fine with Bernadotte haring off to another theater. Anything that will keep the Coalition distracted while their three leaders are under siege. But since he can't offer Norway (the alliance to the Danes, while not vital, remains important and frees a great deal of French troops), you have to consider just what he proposed to our future Karl XIV Johan?
And Bernadotte actually made a vital contribution to the Coalition, although it wasn't on the battlefield but before that, when they were planning just how to deal with the menace that Napoléon was.
Please, please have the Iron Marshal in action! I have wanted that so badly for as long as I have read about the possibilities that could have been. God knows what Napoleon was thinking when he gave McDonald an army in the field with leeway and left Davout so far.
Have no fear. Between Davout and Oudinot, Napoléon is going to pick Davout. Oudinot is a good corps commander and a great inspiration to his troops but hardly made of the stuff needed to lead an independent army. And Macdonald is in a bit of disgrace after being the only one who actually got beat in late August and letting Blücher get a bit too close to Bohemia before he departed for Prussia. So, Davout v. Blücher and Benningsen ahoy!
Of course, it might be bad for Davout's career to win too much. Napoléon didn't particularly like being upstaged in 1806. So Davout is going to weigh his choices.
Of course, it might be bad for Davout's career to win too much. Napoléon didn't particularly like being upstaged in 1806. So Davout is going to weigh his choices.
longsword14
Banned
Davout was very loyal to Napoleon (from accounts that I have read). If he gets an independent command, it would be interesting to see him in flourish. I doubt Napoleon would care too much either, crushing victories is the way to go.Davout is essential now.
P.S. Where is Ney?
P.S. Where is Ney?
No really, the writing is very good. You got me in the head of an aristocratic 19th century Prussian general without me even noticing. That is talent.
Oh, no doubt Davout was loyal. He won't pull any tricks. But he'll be careful to downplay his victories (if he gets any) so as not to risk disfavour like after Auerstedt.
As for Ney... well, Napoléon led the Army of the Bober for a few days before going back to Dresden because Gouvion Saint-Cyr had informed him he couldn't hold the city for very long in the face of the Army of Bohemia. But Ney left III Corps behind. In fact, because Blücher was informed Ney had left, he thought III Corps had left as well. My sources say that Ney was in command of the Young Guard's first and second divisions at Dresden. Sure, it's the Guard, but it must still rankle. So, Ney is probably fuming somewhere close to Prague and demanding that he be given command of something better. Unfortunately for him, there is no need to replace Oudinot with him. Not that it's a bad thing: he got defeated at Dennewitz and worsened the overall picture. Napoléon is in the middle of a siege, so he has a bit of breathing time to decide whether to put him in charge of a corps or send him leading troops elsewhere.
Ah, good. I was aiming for that.
As for Ney... well, Napoléon led the Army of the Bober for a few days before going back to Dresden because Gouvion Saint-Cyr had informed him he couldn't hold the city for very long in the face of the Army of Bohemia. But Ney left III Corps behind. In fact, because Blücher was informed Ney had left, he thought III Corps had left as well. My sources say that Ney was in command of the Young Guard's first and second divisions at Dresden. Sure, it's the Guard, but it must still rankle. So, Ney is probably fuming somewhere close to Prague and demanding that he be given command of something better. Unfortunately for him, there is no need to replace Oudinot with him. Not that it's a bad thing: he got defeated at Dennewitz and worsened the overall picture. Napoléon is in the middle of a siege, so he has a bit of breathing time to decide whether to put him in charge of a corps or send him leading troops elsewhere.
Ah, good. I was aiming for that.
Just stumbled upon this. I must say this is well-written and I'm curious to see where it goes. Keep up the good work!
Part of me is wondering how the events in Germany are going to affect the war in Spain. Napoleon seems to be reversing the situation in Germany here compared to OTL, but the French are likely still getting their asses kicked by Wellington in Spain in the meantime.
Part of me is wondering how the events in Germany are going to affect the war in Spain. Napoleon seems to be reversing the situation in Germany here compared to OTL, but the French are likely still getting their asses kicked by Wellington in Spain in the meantime.