The American War 1898...

[carlton_bach]

What about Germany? I dont know anything of German politics in that era. I'm assuming a German favorable peace, that resembles victory would encorage militarism there. Were Germany by chance to suffer a embarassing or catastrophic naval defeat what would the consequences be? Were militaristic &/or imperialist impulses so strong in the population they would survive defeat? Or would the Kaiser be removed from guiding foreign policy & perhaps the naval policy discredited?

That would be towards the end of the Selbstherrschaft phase, so it would badly discredit Wilhelm and his admirals. How badly would depend on what happened. If the German fleet found itself in some tight spot due to logistical constraints and therefore lost, it could easily spun as perfidious Albion undermining Germany's rightful colonial ambitions by hogging all the good coaling ports. But an outright defeat might tip public opinion. The fleet was not universally popular, and the emperor already was a figure of ridicule to a significant part of the population. You might see a conservative shift towards Bismarckian policies, away from global playership.

A lkot of it would play out in the media. Wilhelm had a tin ear, so there is a good chance he'd offend people by insisting this was everybody else's fault. The question would now be whether the resources of the Flottenverein trump public revulsion. They will present the narrative "we lost because we didn't have a big enough navy" against the competing view "we lost because we can't afford to do this high-seas foolishness and need to concentrate on what we do well (i.e. beating the stuffing out of continental European powers)"

The chance of a revolution or palace coup is practically nil. But such a development is likely to embolden the anti-colonial, anti-naval faction and increasingly cut the emperor out of the decisionmaking loop. In the end, Reichstag and cabinet may end up fighting their way through several constitutional crises to produce a state run by the established elites in a semi-meritocratic fashion and with a modicum of democratic input while Wilhelm is slowly reduced to signing his papers and christening ships.

 

[NHBL]

Germany is toast--eventually

The war could go either way at the time, depending on how it plays out. A long war, Germany looses--the American production of the time was still incredible, though not what was seen 40 years later.

But regardless of this war, Germany has made itself an enemy that it will regret. Until now, no piece of American territiry has been alienated by force of arms long term--the population won't let it stand. And if the mainland is invaded or bombarded, there's a distinct possibility that the USA gets FULLY mobilized.

Whoever wins the war, France and Russia should be grinning ear to ear--Germany has a major new enemy.

Great Britian will have to keep building battleships, since the USA will, between the wars, be building a fleet capable of wiping out the German navy--not just defeating, but obliterating it.

Earning the true wrath of the USA is a BAD thing by that time...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Rereading this thread I sense that German defeat may alter near term European history to the point where the Great War as we know it does not occur. a Series of Balkan wars of course, and those may eventually involve Austria-Hungary & Russia, but not Germany? A discreditation of the Kaisers foreign policy and the naval policy could remove tensions with Britain as well.

Alternately the perception, if not the reality of a German victory could leave the Kaiser, his naval expansion, and control of foreign policy intact? In that case the afore mentioned of the bad thing of US revanchism hangs around to next European crisis & beyond. Would the combined weight of insulted US Jingoism, United Fruits business ambitions, & related social trends overcome the isolationism and anti war sentiment of the 1903-1914 era?

In either case is the US more likely to become involved in any European adventures post 1903?

 

[Westphalian]

You guys know of Robert W. Chambers' The King in Yellow, written in 1895 and mostly mentioned these days for its vague connections to the Cthulhu mythos.
Well, in its constituent short story "The Repairer of Reputations", set in 1920, there are these lines:

The war with Germany, incident on that country's seizure of the Samoan Islands, had left no visible scars upon the republic, and the temporary occupation of Norfolk by the invading army had been forgotten in the joy over repeated naval victories and the subsequent ridiculous plight of General Von Gartenlaube's forces in the State of New Jersey. The Cuban and Hawaiian investments had paid one hundred per cent. and the territory of Samoa was well worth its cost as a coaling station.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

You guys know of Robert W. Chambers' The King in Yellow, written in 1895 and mostly mentioned these days for its vague connections to the Cthulhu mythos.

Now there is a odd ball connection.

Now and then when someone pretentious asks where I studied history I tell them "Miskatonic University".

 

[unprincipled peter]

no mention of what the Boer War does to events? some talk here about British entry, and on which side. They're kinda busy dealing with a coming war in SA, and Germany's been pissing off the Brits by making kissing noises with the Boers (although they ultimately stayed out of the actual war). Venezuala crisis not withstanding, the US/Brits are friendly toward each other. They've recognized the Monroe Doctrine by backing down in that crisis, but they might try to reverse action by encouraging Germany to break that doctrine. IMO, Britain doesn't get involved - they don't have a stake in either horse, and they have troubles elsewhere.

Meanwhile, you have two separate wars requiring transit through the Atlantic. Sorta ripe for an oops to occur.

 

[sloreck]

Logistics make it impractical for even just the German Navy to fight the USA on the western side of the Atlantic. Key issue is coal, all warships are coal fired in 1898 (very few exceptions). The Germans won't be able to use Cuba as a significant base (too close to the USA) & even assuming they can use Puerto Rico freely, all supplies except food need to be transported from Europe to Puerto Rico - ammunition, parts, coal. Those convoys will be terribly vulnerable. If the Germans are crazy enough to land troops in America the same applies for parts/ammo, and now you have 2 convoy streams that have to be protected against commerce raiding - well beyond the capacity of the German Navy.

It would be smarter and way cheaper for the Germans to buy Spanish Islands in the Pacific (as they did in some cases) and negotiate commercial treaties re: Cuba, Puerto Rico, PI BEFORE the Spanish-American War - these commercial rights would probably be continued even after the US takes these places, as to change them would be "bad business".

even if due to ASBs the Germans get Puerto Rico (let alone Cuba) this will not be tolerated long term by the USA. and will be no more tenable than say US occupation of the Frisian Islands...

 

[mrmandias]

Puerto Rico in german hands about guarantees another round between Germany & the US. German businessmen will see all sort of opportunities in the Carribean. German nationalists/imperialists will see the region as Germanys natural inheritance & window to the Americas. This places them directly in opposition to United Fruit. It is going to get ugly what with pink cheeked Germans making airs on the reservation of capitalist robber barons...

German immigration to the US was fairly hefty in those days. i suspect a lot of Germans will change their mind & seel opportunities elsewhere in the new world.

More importantly will be the German naval basing in Puerto Rico. The US will see this as a Class One threat.

I suspect German immigration will slow down some but not for the reasons you suggest. I suspect it will be because of the full-bore anti-German hysteria that will break out.

 

[mrmandias]

Whoever wins the war, France and Russia should be grinning ear to ear--Germany has a major new enemy.

In fact, I would expect that France and Russia would be getting a number of new loans for railroads and stuff. The US is just coming into its own as a financial center around this time.

 

[Johnny Canuck]

Great Britian will have to keep building battleships, since the USA will, between the wars, be building a fleet capable of wiping out the German navy--not just defeating, but obliterating it.

That's an interesting point - the Americans' shipbuilding, designed to fight Germany, might antagonize Britain, who might start seeing this fleet as a potential enemy force. Might make the Anglo-Japanese alliance more robust - the Brits will very much need Japanese naval support in the Pacific if they get into a war with the US.

 

[Smaug]

Conroy...good books. I don,t see England keeping thier nose out:/

 

[mrmandias]

So assume there's a short war, the Germans win some kind of fleet action and there is a qualified German victory of some kind (maybe Cuba is still freed but Germany gets Puerto Rico from the Spaniards, the Phillipines remain under nominal Spanish control). Obvious, if WWI still happens, the US will probably come in early on the side of the Allies, and will probably be much better armed and equipped.

But would WWI still happen? Won't Germany be more pacific knowing that it now has one more enemy than in OTL? My guess is no. The German plan always was to knock out France early to neutralize British involvement, and I see no reason the same reasoning won't apply to America too. In fact, because America will be a militarily weak nation in the process of arming up, I think Germany will have an incentive to start the war earlier before America can get too strong, just as with OTL with the Russians.

 

[freivolk]

So assume there's a short war, the Germans win some kind of fleet action and there is a qualified German victory of some kind (maybe Cuba is still freed but Germany gets Puerto Rico from the Spaniards, the Phillipines remain under nominal Spanish control). Obvious, if WWI still happens, the US will probably come in early on the side of the Allies, and will probably be much better armed and equipped.

But would WWI still happen? Won't Germany be more pacific knowing that it now has one more enemy than in OTL? My guess is no. The German plan always was to knock out France early to neutralize British involvement, and I see no reason the same reasoning won't apply to America too. In fact, because America will be a militarily weak nation in the process of arming up, I think Germany will have an incentive to start the war earlier before America can get too strong, just as with OTL with the Russians.

I think its possible that Germany will try a premptiv-strike against the USA. 1901/1902, after the Kaiser-Friedrich-class.ships are ready and the new U.S-battleships are still in the docks may be agood time for that.