The 3 Presidents controversy: 1944-45

[Catalunya]

A popular POD on Alternatehistory.com is Roosevelt picking Willkie as his VP in 1944. Now as we all know the two died in quick succesion, Willkie in 1944 and Roosvelt in 1945. I've seen a few Roosevelt/Willkie scenarios where the two die somewhere in 1945 which causes the Secretary of State to become president. What I'm wondering is what would happen if the both passed away after the Electoral College met, but before Inaguration day. Now if that were to happen the VP at that moment, Henry Wallace, would be promoted to the Presidency, but he wasn't elected. Following the President and the VP the Secretary of State is next in the line of succesion. IOTL the Secretary of State at that moment was Cordel Hull or Edward Stettinius, Jr. Hull resigned because of health reasons on the 30th of November which was followed by the uncontroversial selection of Stettinius.

Now in a world where Roosevelt pick Willkie as his runningmate he'll most likely have to 'compensate' the Southern Democrats more than IOTL. A good way to do this would be by choosing a Southerner as Hull's succesor instead of Stettinius. A good shout would be one of Roosevelt's closest allies James F. Byrnes, who just so happens to be Stettinius' succesor IOTL. Wallace and Byrnes were of the two opposite sides of the Democratic Party and Wallace would not want Byrnes to be president for the following 4 years. It would be stupid, yet not completely out of character for Wallace, to fire Byrnes and appoint his own handpicked handsuccesor. This nominee could obviously be opposed by opposed by Congress if they do not like him, which would force Henry Wallace to make a recess apointment. Henry Wallace, who thinks he would make a great president, would try to find a way to make his presidency last at least the upcoming 4 years.

So now we have a constitutional crisis and two sides who absolutely hate each other and do not want to give the presidency to the other. A plurality of Democrats would most likely try to find a pick which both men would be happy with. But who could they possibly pick? William O. Douglas? Byrnes, would oppose it. Harry Truman? He's a Southern Senator which Wallace would not be okay with. George Marshall? It would look like a military coup. There is however someone who actually has the support of millions of Americans. More than 22.000.000 of them in fact. And he's the one with the most Electoral College Votes as of that moment. I'm obviously talking about Republican Nominee Thomas Dewey.

It would not be that crazy for him to throw his hat into the ring once more to try and keep these two men who are, in his opinion, unfit to lead America towards the end of the Second World War. With the Soviets nearing Berlin and the Nuclear Bomb closer than ever America finds it self in it's biggest constitutional crisis yet. 3 men who all want to be the President. Harry Wallace, the Progressive with Soviet sympathies. James Byrnes, the Conservative Southerner. Thomas Dewey, the Liberal Republican.

What would happen in such a scenario?

 

[Mikestone8]

This nominee could obviously be opposed by opposed by Congress if they do not like him, which would force Henry Wallace to make a recess apointment.

Small point. Under the 1886 Act, a recess appointee would not take his place in the line of sucession until confirmed by the Senate. So if the vacancy occurred before this could be done, then Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau would become the first Jewish POTUS.

 

[SandroPertini98]

And bye bye to Germany.
The Supreme Court will be called to decide if Wallace can fire Byrnes. If yes (likely), the best move for Wallace would be fire all Cabinet members until someone disposed to be his man. He could hope to be nominated in a Cabinet position by X and then becoming President again by X resignation but probably the Congress would refuse his nomination.
With all probability, the Congress will use the 1886 Act to invoke a new election in November 1946.

 

[Catalunya]

And bye bye to Germany.
The Supreme Court will be called to decide if Wallace can fire Byrnes. If yes (likely), the best move for Wallace would be fire all Cabinet members until someone disposed to be his man. He could hope to be nominated in a Cabinet position by X and then becoming President again by X resignation but probably the Congress would refuse his nomination.
With all probability, the Congress will use the 1886 Act to invoke a new election in November 1946.

Who would be President until 1946?

 

[Vidal]

This is definitely as close to a Congressional crisis as you can come, but I don't think you're going to see a new election in 1946. If they die after the Electoral College and before Inauguration Day it's simple - the Secretary of State (whoever replaces Hull). If they die after the general and before the Electoral College votes....

If they die after Stettinius is sworn-in (12/01) but before Electoral College vote, then the Democratic electors will likely vote for the Roosevelt/Willkie ticket in 1944 posthumously, and then on January 20, with neither man able to assume office, Stettinius would be sworn-in. Wallace would govern in the interim. (Or, I suppose, Byrnes if you want to go that route).

If they die before Stettinius is confirmed, I'm assuming Hull, with the chance to become president, would not actually resign (11/30), the Democratic electors vote for Roosevelt, and Hull is sworn-in in 1945. Wallace governs in the interim.

Unless, and I suppose its possible, there is a Constitutional challenge to electors casting a ballot for a dead person.

This assumes that the electors MUST vote for either Roosevelt or Dewey, which I do not believe to be the case. I did a quick google search and a number of these articles said the party could submit a new name for the electors to vote for. An emergency meeting of the Democratic Party commences and the question becomes who they (the DNC) will nominate. I would not underestimate, in this unique set of circumstances, that Sam Rayburn emerges as a compromise candidate - well-respected by party insiders, unquestionably qualified, and a creature of Washington. In this case, the Democratic electors would vote for Rayburn and whoever the DNC selects as a running mate and they would be inaugurated. I would also argue there's a decent chance that - in an attempt to find someone agreeable - the party nominates Eleanor Roosevelt as a caretaker. This was a common practice at this time for senators and governors.

So again, possibilities seem to be (at least to me):
1. The electors posthumously vote for FDR and the Sec. of State is inaugurated in 1945 -- either Hull, Stettinius, or the alternate replacement for Hull
2. The DNC submits a compromise candidate and that person is elected by the Electoral College and inaugurated in 1945.

Now, it's possible I misunderstood your question and you are assuming the second principle and asking who the compromise candidate is. I submit Rayburn, but there are a number of possibilities. I don't however buy that there is "ambiguity" - there is technically a way to handle this and it will be followed, even if it leads many people to question the legitimacy of the outcome...

 

[SandroPertini98]

Who would be President until 1946?

The highest ranking Cabinet member left, I suppose. To worsen the crisis, imagine Wallace doesn't find his man and fires all the Cabinet, so I January there is no one to take the seat of Acting President. Wallace then tries to prorogue his term. At this point the Congress has to nominate a Acting President, let's say Speaker Rayburn. Rayburn can then nominate Byrnes Secretary of State and he would become Acting President almost immediately, as the Congressional nominee for the seat governs only until there is not a Cabinet member to take his place.
In all this mess I think calling a new election is the only rational thing to do, probably it will be the basis of the agreement to nominate Rayburn or someone other and then Byrnes. Then in November Wallace, Bynes and Dewey will have all their opportunity.

 

[sprite]

I don't think Wallace would try any 'political' tricks.

 

[Mikestone8]

The highest ranking Cabinet member left, I suppose. To worsen the crisis, imagine Wallace doesn't find his man and fires all the Cabinet, so I January there is no one to take the seat of Acting President. Wallace then tries to prorogue his term. At this point the Congress has to nominate a Acting President, let's say Speaker Rayburn. Rayburn can then nominate Byrnes Secretary of State and he would become Acting President almost immediately, as the Congressional nominee for the seat governs only until there is not a Cabinet member to take his place.

Congress meets on January 3, 17 days before Inauguration Day.

So there would be time for Democrats and Rpublicans in Congress to get together on someone reasonably acceptable to both. I would expect the Reps to be very "correct" and disclaim any desire to steal the election. If both parties can agree, then they can rush through an Act of Congress (overriding Wallace's veto if necessary) naming someone to fill the vacancy. Wallace himself, of course, would be totally discredited after having behaved in such a manner (esp while the country was at war), and even fellow-Democrats would shun him.

 

[SandroPertini98]

Maybe William Douglas could be an good choice as nonpartisan candidate, he is a enough New Deal Democratic to appease Dems, enough progressive to appease Wallace supporters and enough institutional and impartial to appease Reps, even if open a door for him to run in November

 

[Mikestone8]

Maybe William Douglas could be an good choice as nonpartisan candidate, he is a enough New Deal Democratic to appease Dems, enough to appease Wallace supporters and enough institutional and impartial to appease Reps, even if open a door for him to run in November

Would they pass a law simply naming him?

I suppose this is possible, but I'd have thought they'd be more likely to simply add some non-Cabinet officers (whose holders Wallace could not dismiss) to the line of succession. or perhaps (but less likely) provide that if no current Cabinet officers were eligible, then their immediate predecessors should be regarded as still in the LoS until their replacements were confirmed by the Senate.