Syria jordan war early 1970s

Khanzeer

Banned
So in OTL with fedayeen uprisings in their land jordaan launched reprisal attacks against Palestinians.That resulted in Syrian army intervention but due to political differences Syrian airforce did not intervene resulting in syrian offensives losing steam and then peace was arranged by Arab powers

WI syria attacked with full force and with air support ?
Wi they get Soviet and Libyan backing for this too ? Objective to overthrow hashimite and install a pro Palestinian Jordanian govt that is satellite of Damascus and cairo.

How will this play out ? How would saudi , israel , iraq and Egypt react ?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Iraq and Egypt could be supportive of the Syrian side.

Saudi will not. Saudis will fund Jordanian resistance and facilitate US aid delivery. The Iranians of the time will be sympathetic with the Saudi policy and Jordan.

Israelis will attack Syrians hard in the air at least. If it's required, they'll get involved on the ground either in Syria itself, or northwestern Jordan. Israel will be on high alert on its western border.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Or israel can sit it out

Saudis and Iranians ( plus Pakistanis) will undoubtedly support jordon
Iraq may not fully support syria , due to their rivalry probably may be neutral
 
Pakistan doesn't have the reach to deploy its full military might, so volunteers will be most likely be there choice pilots most likely giving jordan an advantage.

Israel may do covert support any open support may do more harm for jordan than they can help with.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Pakistan doesn't have the reach to deploy its full military might, so volunteers will be most likely be there choice pilots most likely giving jordan an advantage.
If the war is in 1970 (like OTL) or 1971 Pakistan won’t have any involvement due to the situation in Bangladesh. If it occurs afterwards Pakistan might actually support Syria because Hafez al-Assad and Bhutto were close allies.
 
Israelis will attack Syrians hard in the air at least. If it's required, they'll get involved on the ground either in Syria itself, or northwestern Jordan.

IIRC in the OTL they had massed ground forces near Jordan.

Israel will be on high alert on its western border.

Western--where a cease fire had just been established on the canal front--or eastern, where the action was, in 9/70?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
If the war is in 1970 (like OTL) or 1971 Pakistan won’t have any involvement due to the situation in Bangladesh. If it occurs afterwards Pakistan might actually support Syria because Hafez al-Assad and Bhutto were close allies.
But so were Jordanians who sent f104 to PAF in 1971 war and gen zia ul haq was loaned to Jordanian army by Pakistan
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Pakistan doesn't have the reach to deploy its full military might, so volunteers will be most likely be there choice pilots most likely giving jordan an advantage.

Israel may do covert support any open support may do more harm for jordan than they can help with.
Jordan has hunters and f104 in 1970 ?
Any F5 ?
 
It's 1970, so Nasser's still alive, but he'll be dead in a few months. Nasser OTL tried hard to bring the war to mediation, vainly wanting a unified Arab line. His successor, Al-Sadat, is going to be more critical of Syria's role, and will only support Syria because the army would. Any mistakes, and he can use that against the dissenting officers later.

Israel will absolutely not sit it out. Its neighbor with the longest, most important border is about to turn hostile. The Hashemites may have been Israel's enemies prior to 1990, but it was a sort of respectful rivalry, with Jordan knowing it can't really fight Israel and Israel learning the hard way in 1968 that just because Jordan lacks the numbers, it won't be easy to invade.

A Palestinian takeover will completely wreck that arrangement. Jordan would become significantly more hostile under a fedayeen junta, and the already-porous border would let in a floodgate of raids and commando attacks.

IOTL, Syria amassed its tanks at the border, ready to move in and help the Palestinian forces. The Israeli air force flew over the Golan Heights and right next to the Jordan border to send a clear message; "cross that border and we will intervene". Syria got the message and backed down in a hurry. And in case you think Israel was bluffing, think on this; a lot of Israel's wars and actions have relied on fait accomplis to force its enemies to accept a current reality or fight it. At times, such actions have backfired greatly (the 1982 invasion of Lebanon), but for the most part, it worked well. Israel just needs to shatter the Syrian army as it rolls into Jordan, then pull back when the Syrians are forced to fall back and lick their wounds.

The USA and Britain will absolutely support the Jordanian monarchy in this fight. Jordan is a moderate state, and its loss or change would destabilize the region. There were sightings of British paras in and around the Jordanian royal palaces alongside Jordanian forces. The USSR cannot officially condone or condemn the invasion, as both Syria and Jordan have good ties to the USSR, even if Syria is officially a Soviet ally/client. Saudi Arabia will pull out the stops and flood Jordan with money and supplies to keep the Syrian army from winning.
 
Would Imperial Iran intervene in this conflict?

As I think that they might to keep the balance of power intact or, I wonder if Turkey could be encouraged to threaten Syria's northern border as well.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Would Imperial Iran intervene in this conflict?

As I think that they might to keep the balance of power intact or, I wonder if Turkey could be encouraged to threaten Syria's northern border as well.
No active ground forces , as they would like to keep this an all arab affair
Maybe lend air power
 
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