Suppose in 1944, morale of the 101st division is so low that surrender seems inevitable. Three platoons early in the siege seem to go AWOL, apparently to surrender to the Germans, although in actuality they tried to scout out to see what German attack might be incoming but the other Americans don't know this. General McAuliffe starts probing around and both immediate subordinates and some low level lieutenants he asked believed surrender was inevitable, with some of the low level officers saying that while their unit won't be the first to do so, it was a domino effect waiting to happen. He knew he was told to hold Bastogne, but he believed the alternatives were to try a breakout or face his division melting away in surrender. He ordered a general breakout to the north on December 23rd 1 hour before sunrise, even though that is kind of the wrong direction to go to get rescued. 1/8 of the 101st Division that can walk (some soldiers kept fighting despite needing to be carried around by others) and the entire 705th Tank Destroyer Battalion follow him. The result is that over 90% of those trying to breakout perish and every single survivor is captured. McAuliffe's immediate subordinates, their subordinates, and a third level down (basically 3 levels in the chain of command) all died. McAuliffe himself loses a leg to an explosion and is captured by the Germans. Meanwhile at 3 o clock, the rest of the garrison that didn't come out (including 7/8 of the 101st division) surrender ignobly.
I have no illusions that this will make the Germans win the war. It won't even allow them to make their push towards Brussels. Their plan wasn't on solid ground to begin with. An example of their bad planning can be found in Salerno when they were confident in their ability to counterattack and push the allies into the sea, at least on this sector, even if not everywhere. Yet they failed here too. And in this case, even von Rundstedt was pessimistic of the Ardennenoffensive. In the Battle of the Bulge, a much more important German unit further north was supposed to advance, but was checked by the allies at Elsenborn Ridge, so even if the 10st was removed as a fighting force, the German plan had already failed. And the Germans would need to transfer units to the East like they did in OTL anyways.
But what would change? I don't think the post war borderline would change very much. But it means there isn't a heroic stand at Bastogne. The major allied victory here would be at Elsenborn Ridge, a less well known engagement that even in OTL was more important. Bastogne would be known as the place where almost an entire American division surrendered. Might this have some effect of the posture of American politicians post war? Or maybe they turn Elsenborn Ridge into a story of heroism so instead of the famous "Nuts!" we have Clift Andrus of the 1st Division being the hero?
I have no illusions that this will make the Germans win the war. It won't even allow them to make their push towards Brussels. Their plan wasn't on solid ground to begin with. An example of their bad planning can be found in Salerno when they were confident in their ability to counterattack and push the allies into the sea, at least on this sector, even if not everywhere. Yet they failed here too. And in this case, even von Rundstedt was pessimistic of the Ardennenoffensive. In the Battle of the Bulge, a much more important German unit further north was supposed to advance, but was checked by the allies at Elsenborn Ridge, so even if the 10st was removed as a fighting force, the German plan had already failed. And the Germans would need to transfer units to the East like they did in OTL anyways.
But what would change? I don't think the post war borderline would change very much. But it means there isn't a heroic stand at Bastogne. The major allied victory here would be at Elsenborn Ridge, a less well known engagement that even in OTL was more important. Bastogne would be known as the place where almost an entire American division surrendered. Might this have some effect of the posture of American politicians post war? Or maybe they turn Elsenborn Ridge into a story of heroism so instead of the famous "Nuts!" we have Clift Andrus of the 1st Division being the hero?
