Sultan Erdogan: Arab Spring ATL
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takerma
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I suspect that Iran will think that Turkey atleast partially is acting on west behalf. As things progress Hezbollah will probably will get used against the Turks and rest of Syrian opposition.
I am also thinking that Russia will get involved directly to support Assad, what will happen with Russian ships going through the straits? How involved is Turkey getting in Egypt? If they overplay their hand Army coup will happen much sooner
Alawites are gonna get genocided, Kurds will soon be fighting everyone involved. Christians in Syria are just as fucked.
Going to be a fun ride.
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I am also thinking that Russia will get involved directly to support Assad, what will happen with Russian ships going through the straits? How involved is Turkey getting in Egypt? If they overplay their hand Army coup will happen much sooner
Alawites are gonna get genocided, Kurds will soon be fighting everyone involved. Christians in Syria are just as fucked.
Going to be a fun ride.
subscribed
MerryPrankster just did a great blog post on this topic and asked my to link it to the thread: http://accordingtoquinn.blogspot.com/2015/06/what-if-turkish-military-intervention.html
I hope everyone is enjoying the ATL so far.
I hope everyone is enjoying the ATL so far.
Part 5: Battle For Aleppo
The battle for Aleppo, Syria's largest and most prosperous city, has a relatively short but brutal affair. It began with sporadic clashes in mid July and reached its climax on July 24th as Opposition fighters and Turkish soldiers pushed into the city's center. The Regime defenders out numbered and out gunned were slowly quashed, by early August over 70% of the city was liberated.
Erdogan arrived at the front to personally asses the situation. He met with the Turkish frontline commanders and Syrian Opposition fighters. Everywhere he went the men cheered "We are all soldiers of Tayyip."
In response to the Turkish intervention, Assad ordered a bulk of his forces to push north up the M-5 Highway to retake Aleppo. These convoys of Syrian soldiers proved easy targets from Turkish Air Force, which destroyed hundreds of AFV on route. The Regime counterattack on the city began on the morning of August 8th against the Opposition held Salaheddine District. Over the next few days, Syrian Arab Army soldiers attempted to bash through rebel and Turkish defences to no avail. Every time the SAA came close to a breakthrough, Turkish firepower came into play and stemmed the tide.
The final death blow came in mid August when rebel forces, with the assistance of Turkish Special Forces, managed to capture the town of Maarat al- Nu'man along the Regime's supply line. With the fall of this strategic town, government forces began to disintegrate. Syrian soldiers surrounded, and being heavily bombarded, began to retreat, defect in large numbers or simply surrender. Only members of the elite units continued to hold out until late August. By September, the city along with most of the Aleppo Province was free of Regime control.
The battle for Aleppo, Syria's largest and most prosperous city, has a relatively short but brutal affair. It began with sporadic clashes in mid July and reached its climax on July 24th as Opposition fighters and Turkish soldiers pushed into the city's center. The Regime defenders out numbered and out gunned were slowly quashed, by early August over 70% of the city was liberated.
Erdogan arrived at the front to personally asses the situation. He met with the Turkish frontline commanders and Syrian Opposition fighters. Everywhere he went the men cheered "We are all soldiers of Tayyip."
In response to the Turkish intervention, Assad ordered a bulk of his forces to push north up the M-5 Highway to retake Aleppo. These convoys of Syrian soldiers proved easy targets from Turkish Air Force, which destroyed hundreds of AFV on route. The Regime counterattack on the city began on the morning of August 8th against the Opposition held Salaheddine District. Over the next few days, Syrian Arab Army soldiers attempted to bash through rebel and Turkish defences to no avail. Every time the SAA came close to a breakthrough, Turkish firepower came into play and stemmed the tide.
The final death blow came in mid August when rebel forces, with the assistance of Turkish Special Forces, managed to capture the town of Maarat al- Nu'man along the Regime's supply line. With the fall of this strategic town, government forces began to disintegrate. Syrian soldiers surrounded, and being heavily bombarded, began to retreat, defect in large numbers or simply surrender. Only members of the elite units continued to hold out until late August. By September, the city along with most of the Aleppo Province was free of Regime control.
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Part 6: Operation Damascus Volcano
While the Battle for Aleppo was heating up in the north, Free Syrian Army leadership was planning a coup de main against Damascus. The rebels succeeded in concentrating thousands fighters in the Damascus suburbs of Darayya, Zabadani and Ghouta. The Regime meanwhile had dispatched considerable forces north to deal with the Turkish incursion.
The decisive blow came on July 18th with a suicide attack on the National Security headquarters in central Damascus. The bombing killed Maher al Assad, the Syrian Defense Minster and much of Assad's inner circle. The Syrian dictator however got away clean, he was not even in the city having left for safety in Lakatia. In the bombings aftermath the rebels, assisted by sleeper cells already in the city, pushed into much of eastern and central Damascus
The Damascus International Airport was effectively shut down due for rebel fire. The Syrian Republican Guard commanders fought ferociously to defend the Presidential District. Multiple small scale uses of chemical weapons were reported during the heavy fighting.
In desperation, the Regime ordered forces at the time garrisoning the Golan to push towards Damascus. This last ditch effort however accumulated to nothing, most of the units either deserted or were broken up on the march by rebel ambushes. Running low on supply and with no sign of help, the Regime forces withdraw from most the city. The Alawite population of Damascus as well began an exodus towards the coast.
While the Battle for Aleppo was heating up in the north, Free Syrian Army leadership was planning a coup de main against Damascus. The rebels succeeded in concentrating thousands fighters in the Damascus suburbs of Darayya, Zabadani and Ghouta. The Regime meanwhile had dispatched considerable forces north to deal with the Turkish incursion.
The decisive blow came on July 18th with a suicide attack on the National Security headquarters in central Damascus. The bombing killed Maher al Assad, the Syrian Defense Minster and much of Assad's inner circle. The Syrian dictator however got away clean, he was not even in the city having left for safety in Lakatia. In the bombings aftermath the rebels, assisted by sleeper cells already in the city, pushed into much of eastern and central Damascus
The Damascus International Airport was effectively shut down due for rebel fire. The Syrian Republican Guard commanders fought ferociously to defend the Presidential District. Multiple small scale uses of chemical weapons were reported during the heavy fighting.
In desperation, the Regime ordered forces at the time garrisoning the Golan to push towards Damascus. This last ditch effort however accumulated to nothing, most of the units either deserted or were broken up on the march by rebel ambushes. Running low on supply and with no sign of help, the Regime forces withdraw from most the city. The Alawite population of Damascus as well began an exodus towards the coast.
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Part 7: Fall of Assad
The advance continued into September. Turkish forces secured Bab al Hawa border crossing and moved into the Idlib Province. The provincial capital and the strategic town of Jisr al Shunghur was captured after two weeks of fighting. In late September, Assad had a decision to make either flee to exile in Russia or to fight to the death. Russia, the Assad family's most stall worth ally, was even recommending he call it quits. Erdogan had promised the Russians they would maintain their naval base at Tartus and was threatening to close the Bosporus straits to Russian ships unless they gave up support for Assad.
The dictators first intention was to stand and fight but pleas from his wife Asma al Assad to leave change his mind. Asma had been in constant contact with her close friend Qatari Princess Sheikha al Mayassa who was urging them to leave while there was still time. Assad finally realizing the situation was hopeless boarded a plane in Lakatia Airport, bound for Russia.
With the departure of Assad, Regime forces collapsed over the next month. In the aftermath of the conflict, Erdogan tried desperately to prevent a whole scale massacre of the Alawite and Christian communities in Syria. He was not interested in comparisons being made to the Armenian Genocide. Though instances of violence did occur they were limited.
The Syrian National Council moved to Damascus and established its self as the new central government in Syria. The leaders of the major rebel groups gathered in the liberated capital to discuss the future. Under an agreement put forward by the Turkey, the Kurds would be grant an autonomous area, all rebel fighters would slowly be disarmed over the next few months and parliamentary elections would be held in May. Turkish soldiers would continue to provide security in the country until the situation stabilized.
Erdogan was overjoyed at Assad's fall. The Turkish intervention had been a complete success and Erdogan could boast a foreign policy triumph. Despite this however losses had been significant over 550 Turkish soldiers were killed and several thousand more wounded. The Turkish Prime Minster promised to visit Damascus in the near future and to met the newly liberated people. For now it was on to the next crisis point, Israel and Hamas were again locked in battle.
The advance continued into September. Turkish forces secured Bab al Hawa border crossing and moved into the Idlib Province. The provincial capital and the strategic town of Jisr al Shunghur was captured after two weeks of fighting. In late September, Assad had a decision to make either flee to exile in Russia or to fight to the death. Russia, the Assad family's most stall worth ally, was even recommending he call it quits. Erdogan had promised the Russians they would maintain their naval base at Tartus and was threatening to close the Bosporus straits to Russian ships unless they gave up support for Assad.
The dictators first intention was to stand and fight but pleas from his wife Asma al Assad to leave change his mind. Asma had been in constant contact with her close friend Qatari Princess Sheikha al Mayassa who was urging them to leave while there was still time. Assad finally realizing the situation was hopeless boarded a plane in Lakatia Airport, bound for Russia.
With the departure of Assad, Regime forces collapsed over the next month. In the aftermath of the conflict, Erdogan tried desperately to prevent a whole scale massacre of the Alawite and Christian communities in Syria. He was not interested in comparisons being made to the Armenian Genocide. Though instances of violence did occur they were limited.
The Syrian National Council moved to Damascus and established its self as the new central government in Syria. The leaders of the major rebel groups gathered in the liberated capital to discuss the future. Under an agreement put forward by the Turkey, the Kurds would be grant an autonomous area, all rebel fighters would slowly be disarmed over the next few months and parliamentary elections would be held in May. Turkish soldiers would continue to provide security in the country until the situation stabilized.
Erdogan was overjoyed at Assad's fall. The Turkish intervention had been a complete success and Erdogan could boast a foreign policy triumph. Despite this however losses had been significant over 550 Turkish soldiers were killed and several thousand more wounded. The Turkish Prime Minster promised to visit Damascus in the near future and to met the newly liberated people. For now it was on to the next crisis point, Israel and Hamas were again locked in battle.
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I let Assad off easy and kept the bloodshed to a minimum. If you think this is too nice for him other PODs could be him dying in the Damascus Bombing or killed Gaddafi style. Next post will be up tomorrow, dealing with Israel and Gaza.
Happy Turkish election day!
Happy Turkish election day!
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It might be easy to knock down the Syrian regime, given the disparity in forces, but to police a post-war country of 22 million, you may need tens of thousands of Turkish troops bogged down in Syria.
How many Turks will be left to build a "new Ottoman Empire"?
How many Turks will be left to build a "new Ottoman Empire"?
You do make a good point. I'll try to expand on this in a later post for some more clarification.
I see the Turkish occupation just being of key areas not garrisoning the whole nation. Most areas can probably run themselves with local councils already in place.
The rebel groups will have to be combined with remnants of the SAA to form an official army. This can then provide security. The key for this force to have the weapons while everyone else has been disarmed. Most of the Sunni rebels at this stage in the war aren't radicals and want whats best for the nation. So Turkey hopefully manage things better then US did in Iraq.
I like the idea of this timeline a lot and I'm enjoying it so far, but I feel that the intervention in Syria was a bit to easy, 550 seems like very few casualties for an operation like this and three months not enough time to realistically occupy/liberate Syria. I could be totally wrong given the disparity in forces but it just feels too easy.
Thanks for the comment
I get your feeling. I envisioned this as a Turkish Operation Iraqi Freedom. Government forces swiftly collapse and the civilians are passive or accepting at least at first.
Turkey, being a modern western military, I was trying to give the casualties similar to the initial stage of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Coalition:
172 killed (139 U.S., 33 UK)[13]
551 wounded (U.S.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq
Assad collapsing over the summer 2012 isn't too outlandish. Understanding War.org estimated that he only had 65,000 loyal troops available during this period, which is pathetic compared to the Turkish Army. Also most of the population really doesn't like the government. Heck even the Prime Minster defected in August:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyad_Farid_Hijab
So it wouldn't be the Turkish military occupying the whole country. More like they help depose Assad and then the Sunni population accepts control over their own local areas with some help.
Overall your assessment is also plausible. Resistance could be fiercer and more causalities could be incurred.
Anyone else have an opinion on this? I'm always open to editing.
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I don't plan on using the Turkish Army in any more foreign escapades, Syria is there only concern. The Empire will hopefully be built through agreements and peaceful means.
Part 8: Turkey, Gaza and Israel
The relationship between Turkey and Israel had been volatile in recent years. In 2009, Erdogan got into a bitter argument with Israeli President Simon Peres, at the World Economic Forum, over the situation in Gaza. The confrontation ended with Erdogan angrily storming out of the conference. In 2010, Israel attacked a flotilla of aid ships headed for Gaza killing ten Turkish activists. These two incidents permanently set Erdogan against Israel, he vowed not to rest until Gaza was free of blockade.
The latest Israeli operation against Gaza, known as Operation Pillar of Defense, began on November 14th. An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas commander Ahmed Jabari and sparked major clashes. Things developed as usual, Hamas shot of rockets at Israeli civilian areas and Israeli responded with firepower disregarding collateral damage.
Erdogan now back in Istanbul went to speak before Parliament in order to vent his frustrations. Addressing the body, Erdogan wore a Palestinian Scarf to show his support for Gaza. During his speech he railed against Israelis "state terrorism" and accused the country of "massacring women and children." He harshly criticized the Western Media for its "biased" coverage of the conflict.
Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu responded to the Turkish Prime Minster's speech stating that " I believe his shameful remarks must be repudiated by the international community, because war against terror will only succeed if its guided by moral clarity."
Netanyahu had at first seen the Turkish invasion as a positive move, he had no love of Bashar al Assad's Regime and wanted stability. These recent comments by Erdogan and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria were however of great concern. Muslim Brotherhood leader Muhammad Al-Shaqfa had stated his intentions to get back the Golan either "peacefully" or "forcefully." Netanyahu feared Hamas gaining a foothold in Syria and more weapons falling into their hands. If dangers arose in the future he would not hesitate to use airstrikes.
To the relief of many the situation deescalated and Operation Pillar of Defense came to an end on November 21st after a mediated ceasefire.
The relationship between Turkey and Israel had been volatile in recent years. In 2009, Erdogan got into a bitter argument with Israeli President Simon Peres, at the World Economic Forum, over the situation in Gaza. The confrontation ended with Erdogan angrily storming out of the conference. In 2010, Israel attacked a flotilla of aid ships headed for Gaza killing ten Turkish activists. These two incidents permanently set Erdogan against Israel, he vowed not to rest until Gaza was free of blockade.
The latest Israeli operation against Gaza, known as Operation Pillar of Defense, began on November 14th. An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas commander Ahmed Jabari and sparked major clashes. Things developed as usual, Hamas shot of rockets at Israeli civilian areas and Israeli responded with firepower disregarding collateral damage.
Erdogan now back in Istanbul went to speak before Parliament in order to vent his frustrations. Addressing the body, Erdogan wore a Palestinian Scarf to show his support for Gaza. During his speech he railed against Israelis "state terrorism" and accused the country of "massacring women and children." He harshly criticized the Western Media for its "biased" coverage of the conflict.
Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu responded to the Turkish Prime Minster's speech stating that " I believe his shameful remarks must be repudiated by the international community, because war against terror will only succeed if its guided by moral clarity."
Netanyahu had at first seen the Turkish invasion as a positive move, he had no love of Bashar al Assad's Regime and wanted stability. These recent comments by Erdogan and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria were however of great concern. Muslim Brotherhood leader Muhammad Al-Shaqfa had stated his intentions to get back the Golan either "peacefully" or "forcefully." Netanyahu feared Hamas gaining a foothold in Syria and more weapons falling into their hands. If dangers arose in the future he would not hesitate to use airstrikes.
To the relief of many the situation deescalated and Operation Pillar of Defense came to an end on November 21st after a mediated ceasefire.
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I'm trying to determine how Israel would view the Turkish invasion. My guess is they would be focused most on Hamas.
I must say, when I first read this, I thought you were going to have Erdogan crown himself Sultan, Napoleon style. That is obviously not the case, and the TL is more plausible for it.
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