Sultan Erdogan: Arab Spring ATL

[hasdrubal barca]

Sultan Erdogan: Arab Spring Alternate Timeline

Intro: Forget the West

Around midday on June 22nd, 2012 a Turkish F-4 Phantom Jet was hit by a Syrian fired anti aircraft missile and spun out over the Mediterranean. The two Turkish pilots manning the aircraft died in the ensuing crash. This was the latest in a series of violent incidents between Turkey and the Syrian Regime of Bashar Al Assad. Assad's violent crackdown against the Syrian people and Turkey's support for the Syrian Opposition had led to mounting tensions between the two nations.

In response to the shoot down, Turkish Prime Minster Tayyip Erdogan summoned Turkish Foreign Minster Ahmet Davutoglu to the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul to discuss the matter.

Erdogan began the meeting " How shall we respond to this blatant act of aggression?"

Davutoglu spoke "First we should contact the United States and NATO, requesting their support on this issue. Then.."

Erdogan interrupted "Forget the West."

Davutoglu looking confused waited for Erdogan to continue."They are only concerned with their own agenda and care nothing for us or the cries of the Syrian people. History will judge us by what we do now, I will not stand by while my brothers in Syria die. We must own this issue ourselves, the time is right, sooner or later we will be dragged into the conflict anyway."

Davutoglu: What are you suggesting?

Erdogan: "That we establish a safe zone, and no fly zone, for Syrians in the northern part of the country and that we commit our army directly into the fight."

Davutoglu " I'm unsure of this. It will give us a chance to extend our hand but I do worry about repercussions. Our entrance into the European Union for instance might be jeopardized if we act unilaterally.

Erdogan "The EU is but a hollow shell, its economy is broken. Meanwhile we are strong and flourishing. Remember what Kisakurek said 'Tomorrow is ours, the sun rose and set, eternity is ours'.

Erdogan looking at the picture of Ataturk on the wall "We were once a great power, I wish to see those days return. Our military is well prepared for the task, we must chart our own path."

With this Davutoglu finally agreed. He himself had long dreamed of a return to the glory of the Ottoman Empire.

After the meetings conclusion, the Turkish government released a public statement that signaling things to come "The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed, Turkey will support Syrian people in every way until they get rid of the bloody dictator and his gang."

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Hey,

I've been thinking lately about a scenario where Turkey enters into the Syrian Civil War and thought i'd right a ATL for it. Erdogan will not actually become Sultan in the ATL its just a fun title.

All comments and ideas welcome.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Part 1: Neo Ottomanism

The aggressive foreign policy of Erdogan was a break from the "zero problems with neighbors" policy of his predecessors. Erdogan believed deeply in the ideas of Neo-Ottomanism that Turkey should try to regain influence in areas it once controlled under the Ottoman Empire. The developing Arab Spring, presented Turkey with an opportunity to do just this. Erdogan by supporting the overthrow of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Gaddafi in Libya and Mubarak in Egypt hoped to gain these countries as new allies.

The plan was succeeding well so far. During his tour of North Africa in the fall of 2011, Erdogan was met by cheering crowds everywhere he went. In Tunisia he gave his support to the Nahda Party, in Libya to the Justice and Construction Party and in Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood. The election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Muhammad Morsi to the Egyptian Presidency was a huge boast to Erdogan.

As Davutoğlu termed it Turkey was seeking to build an “Axis of Democracy". This would in the future hopefully pave the way for a Pan-Islamist Union of sorts. Syria it was hoped would be the latest edition. Pro Turkish sentiment among the Sunni population of Syria was already very much evident. The people apprenticed all of Erdogan's efforts in helping the refugee crisis and the care given to Syrians fleeing the violence. Erdogan, perhaps correctly, envisioned himself as a modern day Yavuz Sultan Selim who would sweep in and liberate the Syrian people from their oppressors.

 

[rjd1997]

Oh...now THIS is going to be epic!

 

[EMT]

You have my attention, oh yes you do

 

[Yuelang]

Erdogan Empire Strong, long life the Sultan!!!

 

[Cregan]

Interesting!

 

[Orville_third]

Bring on the Chapullers!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapulling

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Part 2: Syrian Forces

Syrian Opposition

In early 2012, Syria had divulged into what looked like a full fledged civil war. The Free Syrian Army and other armed opposition groups had established a presence in all of Syria's provinces. The cities of Homs, Daraa and Rastan had become major centers of rebel activity.

Colonel Raid al Assad and his Free Syrian Army were growing steadily gaining added manpower and weapons. The establishment of a Higher Revolutionary Military Council, under the leadership of General Mustafa al Sheikh, added to military organization on the ground. The rebels were able to field thousands of fighters throughout the country, the most effective being the Farouq Brigades in central Syria, the Idlib Martyrs Brigade in the Jebel al-Zawiya mountain region and the Omari Brigades near Daraa. These along with other rebel factions were waging a very effective guerilla campaign against the regime.

Regime counter offensives, in Baba Amr, Homs and in the Damascus suburb of Zabadani, had achieved some success but did not succeed in destroying opposition forces. The rebels in fact were presenting their worth as a fighting force dealing the government significant damage, while still retaining strength.

The political wing of the Syrian Opposition was known as the Syrian National Council. The council was made up of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, the secular Damascus Declaration and the secular National Bloc. Turkey, along with Qatar, gave support and funding to the Muslim Brotherhood faction. This payed dividends and led to the Brotherhood assuming a dominate position on the council.

Assad Regime

Western Media had for months been predicting the imminent fall of the Assad Regime. The Syrian government was said to have lost all legitimacy and to be rapidly losing its hold on power.

The Syrian Arab Army was in a poor state at the start of 2012. The prewar army stood at 220,000 men now the regime could only count on 65,000 loyal soldiers. The army had lost 60% of its prewar equipment and about 20-30% of armed forces had already defected to the rebel side. The addition of 10,000 Shabiha militia men, to complement the army, was serving more harm then good. The Shabiha's brutality displayed most prominently at Houla only added to hatred of the regime.

The most ample units still at the Regime’s disposal were the Syrian Republican Guards, the Special Forces and the elite 4th Armoured Division, under Maher al Assad. These units, though extremely effective, were spread thin and could not defend everywhere at once. By the summer of 2012, the Syrian Army would find itself incapable of defending on multiple fronts, let alone from a Turkish invasion.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Part 3: Turkey Prepares For War

In late June, 2012 Erdogan ordered the Turkish Armed Forces, along with the Turkish Intelligence Service, to begin total cooperation with the Syrian Opposition. The Syrian rebels based along the Turkish border had already been forming over the past few months for a potential attack on Aleppo and Idlib. The Turks would help with preparation and organization of these offensives, Turkish officers would be integrated into rebel units. The greatest level of support was given to the rebel al Tawhid Brigade under the command of Abdul Saleh. The al Tawhid Brigade was the most powerful rebel force in the north, mustering over 10,000 fighters, and was well connected to the Muslim Brotherhood.

A number of pitfalls still threatened to disrupt Erdogan's well laid plans. At home he would face criticism from the CHP Party over any foreign involvement. The CHP was however still unpopular at this point and had no were near the amount of popular support as Erdogan. If the campaign was a quick success most of the anger would dissipate.

The reaction of the Kurds to any intervention was also worrying. Erdogan had been pursuing a policy of reconciliation and trying to end the violence between the PKK and Turkey. He was the first Turkish Prime Minster to visit, and establish economic ties, with Iraqi Kurdistan. His AKP Party also needed the support of Kurds to hold its majority together. Any provocation could cause peace talks to collapse and his Kurdish support to wane. Erdogan thus decided it was best to avoid Kurdish territories as much as possible and leave it to a post Assad Syrian government to sort out any issues.

The Assad regime and its chemical weapons stockpile presented the greatest danger. Turkish troops, along with their rebel allies, were issued gas masks in response to the danger. Any use of the chemical weapons by the Assad Regime would led to international condemnation and further Turkey's right to intervene. The question of whether Assad would attempt to attack the Tomb of Turkic leader Suleyman Shah was yet another concern.

In the weeks leading up to the mid July intervention, Erdogan spent most of his time quietly reciting Quranic versesand Islamic poetry to himself. Erdogan, a deeply religious person, had memorized many of them by heart and used them to strength his resolve in troubled times. The Turkish Prime Minster also took the time to visit a Syrian refugee camp to help their spirits.

 

[RyuDrago]

Well, I suppose this will be a dystopia of epic proportions, but still better than IS victory I guess...

 

[Historyman 14]

I think this is the first new Ottoman Empire TL we have here.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Part 4: A New Ottoman Empire

Erdogan Poem to Turkish Soldiers:

"Give us strength, my Allah. Do not leave the field of battle with no winner, my Allah. Do not leave these masses who look for a hero with no hero, my Allah. Let us no how to resist the foe do not leave us powerless, my Allah."

On July 18th, the intervention began. The Turkish Air Force penetrated Syrian Air space targeting Syrian AA batteries and air bases. The most decisive strike came against Minakh Air Base north of Aleppo, dozens of Regime helicopters and aircraft were destroyed on the ground. The Syrian air defenses proved to be a competent foe shooting down three Turkish jets during the first few days. Despite this Turkey managed to achieve some measure of air superiority over the northern front.

The Turkish Army meanwhile along with its Syrian allies captured the key Turkish-Syrian border crossing at Azaz. This was followed by a drive up the Kilis Corridor and the capture of Anadan. The strategic town of Anadan was the gate way to Aleppo its fall to Turkish and Oppostion Forces would pave the way for further operations.

International reaction to the intervention was mixed. Turkey's allies Qatar, Azerbaijan, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt hailed the move as a positive step. The Arab Gulf States as well gave tacit support, though they were nervous about Turkey gaining more influence.

Russia, China and Armenia condemned the invasion as Turkish aggression. Iran surprisingly held off total condemnation. Iran was tied to Turkey economically and could not afford to anger Erdogan. Both nations also had much in common in regard to there Israel policy and Iran was friendly with the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran had also lost faith in Assad he had deliberately disobeyed them too many times. They had instructed him to send in the police and keep things calm, instead Assad deployed the army and began shooting peaceful demonstrators. Iran while still supporting Assad was also thinking about the future.

In the United States President Obama has taken by surprise at Turkey's move. The United States was not even informed prior to the onset of the attack. Congressional Republicans proclaimed this as a sign of weakness and that the U.S. like in Libya was leading from behind.

U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert took to the House Floor and talked about his fears of a new Ottoman Empire:

"Thank you President Barack Hussein Obama. This will be quiet a legacy for you and I'm not one of those who says hes not a Christian. All I know is that's between him and God. What I do know is he has helped jump start a new Ottoman Empire and left our friend and ally Israel so vulnerable in this sea of radicalism. That he has helped bring to the surface. I mean if you look across Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Iran, Syria, Lebanon you look at these countries and come on over to Afghanistan and and Pakistan which has been harming all they could while still taking our money. You look and you go oh my gosh this is the making, this is the beginnings, a massive beginning of a new Ottoman Empire, that President Obama can take great credit for."

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

That's pretty awesome stuff! Subscribed!
On the military side however it appears to me maybe a bit too easy the way how turkey achieved aerial superiority: I thought that Assad's air defence would be pretty difficult to destroy without casualties.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

That's pretty awesome stuff! Subscribed!
On the military side however it appears to me maybe a bit too easy the way how turkey achieved aerial superiority: I thought that Assad's air defence would be pretty difficult to destroy without casualties.

Thanks for the comment. Your probably right, I'll do some editing.

 

[Napoléon Caesar Augustus]

Davutoglu " I'm unsure of this. It will give us a chance to extend our hand but I do worry about repercussions. Our entrance into the European Union for instance might be jeopardized if we act unilaterally.

Yeah, cuz that was ever going to happen.

 

[alexcoppo]

I see a problem: everybody in that area remembers that Ottomans were anything but lenient overlords so Sunni enthusiasm is quite unlikely; at best, some Sunni facts will cooperate with the turks while other will fight against them.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

I see a problem: everybody in that area remembers that Ottomans were anything but lenient overlords so Sunni enthusiasm is quite unlikely; at best, some Sunni facts will cooperate with the turks while other will fight against them.

I'm not sure how much of a measure this is but my Sunni Syrian friends love Erdogan. They see him as the closest to their views, their feeling is pretty much anyone but Assad.

The Ottomans in Syria are actually remembered well. I don't know why considering how cruel Cemel Pash was. It's probably partly caused by Syrians freedom being taken away by France after the WWI. So its basically the feeling that the Ottomans weren't so bad because they kept out the Imperialists. Yusuf al-'Azmah is remembered very highly in Syria today.

 

[Nassirisimo]

This could be quite a decisive swing. If Turkey has shown itself to be willing to intervene to protect democratic revolutions in the Middle East, it could have an interesting effect on Egypt. If the intervention is a success, Turkey will have established itself as the clear leader of the more democratic countries of the Middle East, but may get to keep Iran onside if the "Islamist" understanding holds. If deterioration of ties with America takes place, America's allies may find themselves outflanked.

Interesting stuff. Subscribed!

 

[Gudestein]

That's pretty awesome stuff! Subscribed!
On the military side however it appears to me maybe a bit too easy the way how turkey achieved aerial superiority: I thought that Assad's air defence would be pretty difficult to destroy without casualties.

This is amazingly novel stuff. Please proceed.

At the time I think it is highly possible that Syrian air defences has dropped in strength. Their opposition dont have an air force. and the situation would be desperate.

I think the international reactions are quite unpredictable ITTL. Europeans would hold Turkey's credibility above all others in the region, the US would hold Israel the highest. The local arab regimes would be quite scared, but I am no sure the Israeli's would feel threatened or encouraged by the prospect of a more stable neighbour.

From an economic perspective, Turkey could claim intervention also to stem the refugee tide. This would go very well in Europe and probably ensure european support which at least economically may be the most important.