Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread III
- Thread starter Peabody-Martini
- Start date
Someone may have thought it was a good idea to stage a drill at the same time.
If nothing happens, it's a drill, if something does then it was good thinking.
That said, would the German government expect or plan for a Bolt From The Blue attack or is this just good sense to prevent decapitation?
During a time of heightened global tensions, anything can set a reaction like this off.
No, the issue is that basically all aircraft generate "currents of air" due to the air being expelled by the engines, air flowing over their wings to generate lift etc. In the air these are called vortices, on the ground you mostly (storms can can occassionally change this) have jet wash from the engines. Unsuprisingly their intensity is a combination of the engine power, mass and size of the aircraft as well as the specifc shape of the aircraft and position of engines.
They can also be very nasty to unsuspecting smaller, or even equal sized aircraft, directly impacting their ability to control their craft - if you are close to another aircraft trying to take a banger close-up, well....
Wikipedia has a decent article on the issues with wake vortices/turbulence. Scary stuff.
en.wikipedia.org
Wake turbulence - Wikipedia
So this action is of the "Stupid" variation....Wikipedia has a decent article on the issues with wake vortices/turbulence. Scary stuff.
Wake turbulence - Wikipedia
Very much so.
If "Black Box Thinking" is involved then going forward, all aircraft, civilian and military could have their vortex zones mapped.
That could be awkward as the vortex zones may give a hint at performance, but as a safety measure, it would prevent similar accidents in the future. At the very least, I could see civil aircraft publishing theirs.
I guessing it was more than just a scare based upon the quote
"he instantly saw the danger that they couldn’t possibly know about. One that the Luftwaffe had learned about though bitter experience."
That suggests at least one prior incident. Given that it specifically mentions the Luftwaffe and not a civil airliner I'm guessing that the investigation was not publicized.
Part 149, Chapter 2696
Chapter Two Thousand Six Hundred Ninety-Six
7th July 1978
Giant Mountains near Neu Mohrau, Silesia
Wait for further instructions had been the last orders that Niko had received. That was one of the oldest aspects of being in the Army, hurry up and wait. The trouble was that the vast majority of the men of Niko’s Platoon were not regular soldiers. There was also the aspect that most of the junior enlisted were University Students from Breslau and all the Noncoms were Tradesmen from local industry. All of them liked the perks that came with being in the Silesian Reserve Corps, however when it came time to pay the Piper none of them were thrilled. There was also the reason why they had been ordered up into the mountains in the first place. While Niko was just as much in the dark as they were, you didn’t need to be a genius to figure what several Divisions spread across a wide geographical region and the instructions that they had been given meant. This was the sort of thing that they would do in the event of a nuclear war.
That was where the real trouble began.
Many of the students were understandably nihilistic, saying that the best use of their time would be to just go to the top of the highest ridge and watch the pretty lightshow as Western Civilization immolated itself. The others, who had families and lives to go back to took a dim view of that perspective. For Niko, the alert followed by getting sent to what had been called an “Advanced position” had come at an annoying time. Like the other University students present, he had the exams that marked the end of the term upcoming. He was also supposed to be preparing to go to Argentina in a few weeks.
When Niko had mentioned his interest in going back to South America to his father, he had discovered that his father was more than happy to facilitate that. It had turned out that the amount of property that the family owned in Argentina was more extensive and far more lucrative than they had realized, and someone needed to go down there to see to its disposition. Niko had volunteered to do that. The trouble was that this alert had come down before he’d had a chance to leave.
Now that he was in the Giant Mountains, the flaws of this plan were painfully obvious to him. If there really had been a nuclear attack, the heavy industry of Silesia and Bohemia would be high-value targets. These mountains would inevitably be blanketed with fallout. You only needed to see how sulfur dioxide from the smokestacks affected the trees around them to see the reality of the situation. There was also the issue of water, everything they did depended on finding an uncontaminated source. Good luck with that.
That was the reason why Niko was writing a letter to his Aunt Helene. While his Superiors would probably be furious if they knew that he was writing to a politician, a letter to his Aunt and Uncle telling them that he was well and including his observations about life in the field were harmless enough. Aunt Helene was shrewd enough to be able to read between the lines. For Niko it had been a bit of a surprise to learn how his Aunt was regarded by the Soldaten. She had been one of the first to call for the end of the Patagonian War, the welfare of the soldiers and their families was something that had been a significant issue for her. When Niko thought about it, Aunt Helene was the daughter, wife, and mother of soldiers. Finally, Democratic Ecology had part of its platform the prohibition of nuclear arms. The events of the last few days had placed a whole lot of emphasis on that.
With that, the sound of motorcycle coming up the fire trail was heard. Niko had read accounts of the First World War and how riders had been as key to communications then as they were now. It was a way of passing information that was about as secure as possible if speed wasn’t an issue. The motorcycle was a militarized version of the BMW K4, was a large change from the First World War. Having actual brakes for starters.
The motorcycle stopped and Niko watched as the rider pulled a stack of letters out of the saddlebags and handed it to the Hauptfeldwebel. They had only been out here for a few days. It was a bit of a stretch to think that they would be getting any mail already. Niko figured that is was an effort by Regimental Headquarters to forward their mail from home, perhaps a note from home, for morale purposes. The result was them getting bills while they were not in a position to do anything about them. Niko had seen a movie a few years earlier set during the Soviet War where letters from home turned into the darkest sort of coal black humor as months old past due notices and a letter notifying the receiver of pending repossession arrived. There was also the macabre spectacle of getting letters from a dead relative whose funeral the receiver had been granted leave to attend.
“One for you Leutnant” The Hauptfeldwebel said as he handed a letter to Niko.
Tearing it open, Niko saw that it was from Monique. With everything that had happened he had forgotten about the conversation that they’d had last week. She had wanted to talk to her grandfather before she agreed to travel with him. It seemed that Piers Sjostedt had felt that seeing the wider world beyond Flensburg would be good for her. There was also the aspect that her taking a vacation from her great aunts would be good for everyone else. Niko didn’t disagree with that, even Bas was scared of those three.
7th July 1978
Giant Mountains near Neu Mohrau, Silesia
Wait for further instructions had been the last orders that Niko had received. That was one of the oldest aspects of being in the Army, hurry up and wait. The trouble was that the vast majority of the men of Niko’s Platoon were not regular soldiers. There was also the aspect that most of the junior enlisted were University Students from Breslau and all the Noncoms were Tradesmen from local industry. All of them liked the perks that came with being in the Silesian Reserve Corps, however when it came time to pay the Piper none of them were thrilled. There was also the reason why they had been ordered up into the mountains in the first place. While Niko was just as much in the dark as they were, you didn’t need to be a genius to figure what several Divisions spread across a wide geographical region and the instructions that they had been given meant. This was the sort of thing that they would do in the event of a nuclear war.
That was where the real trouble began.
Many of the students were understandably nihilistic, saying that the best use of their time would be to just go to the top of the highest ridge and watch the pretty lightshow as Western Civilization immolated itself. The others, who had families and lives to go back to took a dim view of that perspective. For Niko, the alert followed by getting sent to what had been called an “Advanced position” had come at an annoying time. Like the other University students present, he had the exams that marked the end of the term upcoming. He was also supposed to be preparing to go to Argentina in a few weeks.
When Niko had mentioned his interest in going back to South America to his father, he had discovered that his father was more than happy to facilitate that. It had turned out that the amount of property that the family owned in Argentina was more extensive and far more lucrative than they had realized, and someone needed to go down there to see to its disposition. Niko had volunteered to do that. The trouble was that this alert had come down before he’d had a chance to leave.
Now that he was in the Giant Mountains, the flaws of this plan were painfully obvious to him. If there really had been a nuclear attack, the heavy industry of Silesia and Bohemia would be high-value targets. These mountains would inevitably be blanketed with fallout. You only needed to see how sulfur dioxide from the smokestacks affected the trees around them to see the reality of the situation. There was also the issue of water, everything they did depended on finding an uncontaminated source. Good luck with that.
That was the reason why Niko was writing a letter to his Aunt Helene. While his Superiors would probably be furious if they knew that he was writing to a politician, a letter to his Aunt and Uncle telling them that he was well and including his observations about life in the field were harmless enough. Aunt Helene was shrewd enough to be able to read between the lines. For Niko it had been a bit of a surprise to learn how his Aunt was regarded by the Soldaten. She had been one of the first to call for the end of the Patagonian War, the welfare of the soldiers and their families was something that had been a significant issue for her. When Niko thought about it, Aunt Helene was the daughter, wife, and mother of soldiers. Finally, Democratic Ecology had part of its platform the prohibition of nuclear arms. The events of the last few days had placed a whole lot of emphasis on that.
With that, the sound of motorcycle coming up the fire trail was heard. Niko had read accounts of the First World War and how riders had been as key to communications then as they were now. It was a way of passing information that was about as secure as possible if speed wasn’t an issue. The motorcycle was a militarized version of the BMW K4, was a large change from the First World War. Having actual brakes for starters.
The motorcycle stopped and Niko watched as the rider pulled a stack of letters out of the saddlebags and handed it to the Hauptfeldwebel. They had only been out here for a few days. It was a bit of a stretch to think that they would be getting any mail already. Niko figured that is was an effort by Regimental Headquarters to forward their mail from home, perhaps a note from home, for morale purposes. The result was them getting bills while they were not in a position to do anything about them. Niko had seen a movie a few years earlier set during the Soviet War where letters from home turned into the darkest sort of coal black humor as months old past due notices and a letter notifying the receiver of pending repossession arrived. There was also the macabre spectacle of getting letters from a dead relative whose funeral the receiver had been granted leave to attend.
“One for you Leutnant” The Hauptfeldwebel said as he handed a letter to Niko.
Tearing it open, Niko saw that it was from Monique. With everything that had happened he had forgotten about the conversation that they’d had last week. She had wanted to talk to her grandfather before she agreed to travel with him. It seemed that Piers Sjostedt had felt that seeing the wider world beyond Flensburg would be good for her. There was also the aspect that her taking a vacation from her great aunts would be good for everyone else. Niko didn’t disagree with that, even Bas was scared of those three.
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Looks like the Germans really don't trust the Americans to be rational.
Reputations are built over decades and it's hard to break them.
Reputations are built over decades and it's hard to break them.
Yes and no. It's also a good time to make sure your plans for when the other side start lobbing the instant sunshine about when they're not actually lobbing the instant sunshine about.
It sounds like their plans could get revised a little, rally points too close to likely targets, communication updates, more provision for hardened equipment etc.
Have the effects of EMP been discovered yet?
EMP's have been a known phenomena since the Carrington Event in 1859, which was caused by solar activity triggering a geomagnetic storm. IOTL, EMP's resulting from theoretical nuclear weapons were predicted prior to WW2, resulting in electronics being shielded during the very first A-bomb test.
The main concern that the United States has right now is the disposition of the Germans SLBM submarines fleet now, IOTL, the US and the Soviet Union had an agreement that they would keep their nuclear SLBM submarines at least 500 miles from each others shorelines, and this could be the case ITTL.
The main fear is that the United States has is that Germany could send its subs undetected as close as possible and launch the proverbial "Head Shot" against the United States in which the United States would not have enough reaction time to launch their own retaliation strike against Germany.
This is why ASW is so important to the United States Navy ITTL, and why the United States is so vehemently opposed to giving up Guantanamo Bay Naval Base as that guards the the access to the Gulf of Mexico, in the second timeline, Grand Admiral Jacob von Schmidt sent the diesel-electric powered prototypes SLBM submarines undetected into the Gulf of Mexico during the LON Mexican Intervention that launched thermobatic missiles without warning against Mexican rebels infrastructure.
The main fear is that the United States has is that Germany could send its subs undetected as close as possible and launch the proverbial "Head Shot" against the United States in which the United States would not have enough reaction time to launch their own retaliation strike against Germany.
This is why ASW is so important to the United States Navy ITTL, and why the United States is so vehemently opposed to giving up Guantanamo Bay Naval Base as that guards the the access to the Gulf of Mexico, in the second timeline, Grand Admiral Jacob von Schmidt sent the diesel-electric powered prototypes SLBM submarines undetected into the Gulf of Mexico during the LON Mexican Intervention that launched thermobatic missiles without warning against Mexican rebels infrastructure.
Part 149, Chapter 2697
Chapter Two Thousand Six Hundred Ninety-Seven
10th July 1978
Tempelhof, Berlin
Marie Alexandra’s return from Lichtenstein was marked with foot stomping and a slammed door. Kat understood why she was unhappy. Beyond the inconvenience of the abrupt awakening and terrifying helicopter ride in the early morning hours of July 5th, there had been careless talk about just how people saw Kat’s youngest biological daughter that Marie had overheard. It revolved around exactly why in addition to Kristina and her children, Marie had been on the list of people who the First Foot Guard were supposed to get to safety in the event of a National emergency.
When Louis Ferdinand had wanted to give Kat the somewhat dubious reward of a grand sounding title within the city of her birth, she had instantly seen the implications of essentially turning Berlin into a Principality. Kat had insisted on being named the appointed Prefect with the hope that the many factions within the city would see her as a temporary problem. The thing that Kat had not anticipated was how her role would evolve over the years. She had become a figure outside and above the regular city politics utilizing threats, persuasion, and bribery to keep everyone moving in the same direction. Beneath it all were the rumors that most of the people of Berlin had heard about what Kat was capable of when provoked and some of the things that she had done during the Soviet War. Never once had Kat ever thought that any of her children would be her successor.
Somewhere along the line, things had changed. Apparently there had been a quiet assessment of Kat’s children and the consensus was that Marie Alexandra was the most likely Prefect in waiting. She could understand their logic. Tatiana was well known to be a complete bitch and her latest antics in Washington DC had done nothing to persuade anyone otherwise. She had apparently beat a man with a collapsible baton who had admittedly had it coming for a variety of reasons even if she had been unwilling to say exactly why she had done it. The Ambassador to the United States had kept the matter quiet after his wife had interceded on Tatiana’s behalf. Malcolm on the other hand was regarded as something of a nonentity and that he lacked the forceful personality needed to control matters. To Kat’s eternal regret, she was forced to admit that was true, but only because Malcolm was just too nice for his own good.
Still, Kat was worried about the read that people had on Marie. There were disquieting aspects of Marie that she kept well hidden, and the day would come when people realized that she was not at all what they were expecting.
Pusan, Korea
It was hardly a surprise that the German Marines stuck Tyrone Lee with the Platoon of chuckleheads that they had. This was because he would be hard pressed to find anyone in the entire German Navy or Marines less aware of what was actually going on. It was led in theory by Leutnant Raeder, who struck Lee as the sort of blue blood who would either reveal himself as the leader his namesake great-grandfather had been or else he would eventually leave to take the German equivalent of Executive Vice-President of Sales and spending the rest of his life working on his golf game.
Glued to Raeder’s hip was Oberfeldwebel Muller, or perhaps it was the other way around, the Platoon Sergeant of this outfit. To Raeder’s credit he listened to Muller most of the time, though from Lee’s perspective that was of limited utility because Muller was only a few years older. He must have enlisted the instant he was legally old enough to do so to explain his rank. Probably to escape the prospect of spending the next thirty years punching a time clock if Lee had to guess.
In short, while it had clearly been the German Naval High Command’s intention to put him somewhere where he would be unable to learn much, they had stuck him in with the sort of men he had known known since Basic Training despite national differences. And they knew more than they even realized. It had taken a bit of time, but Lee had sorted out the exact meanings of the terminology, Zug and Groupe being roughly equivalent to Platoon and Squad.
While Leutnant Raeder was spending a lot of his time trying to convince his superiors get the Platoon detached to the South China Sea or the South Pacific, they had been training. Lee had been watching, comparing it to what he had seen on Parris Island and San Diego. There were a few things that had come as a shock, like learning that every single one of the German Marines had a small two-way radio that allowed them to coordinate their movements. Then there were the machine guns and light mortars that they had built their tactics around. Throughout his career Lee had followed the exploits of his German counterparts in Korea where they had refined their tactics against the Chinese and the various bushfire conflicts that cropped up. Most of his fellow Marines had the idea that if they ever went head-to-head with the Germans and they had a contested landing they would totally smoke them. Lee had understood that numbers would eventually win the day but seeing an MG42/56 in action along with its smaller cousin the Vz.60 had convinced him that the first wave onto the beach would have a very rough go. The Platoon had two of the MG42/56s and at least two Vz.60s. The Platoon also had a pair of light 50mm mortars, a pair of rocket launchers, and every squad had at least one underbarrel mounted 40mm grenade launcher.
A few days earlier, the entire German Military had gone on high alert and to Lee’s complete surprise, the Marines he was with had basically blown the whole thing off. “We are all dead if this is for real, so why get excited?” Muller had asked in reply, “Do you want us to throw you in the brig until the end comes?” When word came that it had been a midair collision over the North Atlantic, Lee had learned first-hand that the German Marines had a rather dim view of their own Luftwaffe.
10th July 1978
Tempelhof, Berlin
Marie Alexandra’s return from Lichtenstein was marked with foot stomping and a slammed door. Kat understood why she was unhappy. Beyond the inconvenience of the abrupt awakening and terrifying helicopter ride in the early morning hours of July 5th, there had been careless talk about just how people saw Kat’s youngest biological daughter that Marie had overheard. It revolved around exactly why in addition to Kristina and her children, Marie had been on the list of people who the First Foot Guard were supposed to get to safety in the event of a National emergency.
When Louis Ferdinand had wanted to give Kat the somewhat dubious reward of a grand sounding title within the city of her birth, she had instantly seen the implications of essentially turning Berlin into a Principality. Kat had insisted on being named the appointed Prefect with the hope that the many factions within the city would see her as a temporary problem. The thing that Kat had not anticipated was how her role would evolve over the years. She had become a figure outside and above the regular city politics utilizing threats, persuasion, and bribery to keep everyone moving in the same direction. Beneath it all were the rumors that most of the people of Berlin had heard about what Kat was capable of when provoked and some of the things that she had done during the Soviet War. Never once had Kat ever thought that any of her children would be her successor.
Somewhere along the line, things had changed. Apparently there had been a quiet assessment of Kat’s children and the consensus was that Marie Alexandra was the most likely Prefect in waiting. She could understand their logic. Tatiana was well known to be a complete bitch and her latest antics in Washington DC had done nothing to persuade anyone otherwise. She had apparently beat a man with a collapsible baton who had admittedly had it coming for a variety of reasons even if she had been unwilling to say exactly why she had done it. The Ambassador to the United States had kept the matter quiet after his wife had interceded on Tatiana’s behalf. Malcolm on the other hand was regarded as something of a nonentity and that he lacked the forceful personality needed to control matters. To Kat’s eternal regret, she was forced to admit that was true, but only because Malcolm was just too nice for his own good.
Still, Kat was worried about the read that people had on Marie. There were disquieting aspects of Marie that she kept well hidden, and the day would come when people realized that she was not at all what they were expecting.
Pusan, Korea
It was hardly a surprise that the German Marines stuck Tyrone Lee with the Platoon of chuckleheads that they had. This was because he would be hard pressed to find anyone in the entire German Navy or Marines less aware of what was actually going on. It was led in theory by Leutnant Raeder, who struck Lee as the sort of blue blood who would either reveal himself as the leader his namesake great-grandfather had been or else he would eventually leave to take the German equivalent of Executive Vice-President of Sales and spending the rest of his life working on his golf game.
Glued to Raeder’s hip was Oberfeldwebel Muller, or perhaps it was the other way around, the Platoon Sergeant of this outfit. To Raeder’s credit he listened to Muller most of the time, though from Lee’s perspective that was of limited utility because Muller was only a few years older. He must have enlisted the instant he was legally old enough to do so to explain his rank. Probably to escape the prospect of spending the next thirty years punching a time clock if Lee had to guess.
In short, while it had clearly been the German Naval High Command’s intention to put him somewhere where he would be unable to learn much, they had stuck him in with the sort of men he had known known since Basic Training despite national differences. And they knew more than they even realized. It had taken a bit of time, but Lee had sorted out the exact meanings of the terminology, Zug and Groupe being roughly equivalent to Platoon and Squad.
While Leutnant Raeder was spending a lot of his time trying to convince his superiors get the Platoon detached to the South China Sea or the South Pacific, they had been training. Lee had been watching, comparing it to what he had seen on Parris Island and San Diego. There were a few things that had come as a shock, like learning that every single one of the German Marines had a small two-way radio that allowed them to coordinate their movements. Then there were the machine guns and light mortars that they had built their tactics around. Throughout his career Lee had followed the exploits of his German counterparts in Korea where they had refined their tactics against the Chinese and the various bushfire conflicts that cropped up. Most of his fellow Marines had the idea that if they ever went head-to-head with the Germans and they had a contested landing they would totally smoke them. Lee had understood that numbers would eventually win the day but seeing an MG42/56 in action along with its smaller cousin the Vz.60 had convinced him that the first wave onto the beach would have a very rough go. The Platoon had two of the MG42/56s and at least two Vz.60s. The Platoon also had a pair of light 50mm mortars, a pair of rocket launchers, and every squad had at least one underbarrel mounted 40mm grenade launcher.
A few days earlier, the entire German Military had gone on high alert and to Lee’s complete surprise, the Marines he was with had basically blown the whole thing off. “We are all dead if this is for real, so why get excited?” Muller had asked in reply, “Do you want us to throw you in the brig until the end comes?” When word came that it had been a midair collision over the North Atlantic, Lee had learned first-hand that the German Marines had a rather dim view of their own Luftwaffe.
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