Stop the Trains: War in the West averted in 1914
- Thread starter ScottColo
- Start date
I'm interested in hearing how people think the Ottomans might figure into this war and how they would hold up in the aftermath. In OTL, the Ottoman-German alliance bound the Ottomans to join the Germans if war with Russia broke out (speaking of a 'casus foederis'), but it was actually signed on August 2, after Germany had already declared war on Russia. In a one-front war, might the Germans figure they don't need Turkish support? I added Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan to the third map, would it make more sense for them to be breaking away from a weakened Russia, or from Turkey, after it had retaken territory in the Caucasus lost in previous wars against Russia?
archaeogeek
Banned
Depends, the Young Turks taking over would lead to pan-Turanism more than pan-islamism...
A later side story will focus on Russia, where I'm thinking there would be something roughly equivalent to the February Revolution, but not the October one, since Lenin would still be stuck in Zurich. Similar to OTL, the war would prompt the downfall of Nicholas II, but in this case the loss of it instead of desire to get out of it. This could play out a couple of ways: according to the Duma's original plan in 1917, with Alexei becoming Czar with a suitably reform-minded regent; Nicholas's plan, with his brother Michael ascending the throne, or Kerensky's provisional government consolidating control under a republican setup.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Left this idle for quite a while, recently developed a little more. Here's the story in Russia:
In Russia, the disastrous defeat of 1915 and the humiliating peace imposed by Germany bring popular discontent with Czar Nicholas II and his German-born wife, Alexandra, to near boiling point. The economy suffers heavily from the loss of resources to the German client states, and poverty and hunger become more severe. In mid-1916, bread riots and anti-government protests break out in major cities across the country. Mutinies occur in the army, as soldiers are unwilling to support the czar, who they blame for their humiliation in the war. Nicholas is ultimately forced to abdicate in favor of his son, Alexei, and to go into exile in Britain. Instability continues, however, as the Duma clashes with Alexei’s regents over demands for broad political reforms, and the new government is unable to revive the economy. Radical groups, including Bolsheviks and anarchists, sow disorder and are attacked by the army on several occasions.
The government’s ability to control the far-flung territories of the country is eroded, and some ethnic minorities begin see an opportunity to break away. In 1921, with few Russian troops left in the Caucasus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan declare independence. Several central Asian minorities also revolt, though they can muster much less military resistance. The army’s attempts to reconquer the Caucasus are repelled with surprising ease, and Britain and France urge Russia not to risk coming into conflict with Turkey, as a provision of the 1915 treaty barred Russian troops from areas near the Turkish border.
Enfeebled by his hemophilia, Alexei never assumes power himself, and dies in 1930 at the age of 25. He is succeeded by his father’s brother Michael, who attracts little public support. Socialist groups are gaining stronger support, including within the army. In 1933, a coup deposes Michael and the socialist-controlled Duma declares a republic. The new government scores a boost in popular legitimacy by reclaiming the Crimea, with the help of the local Russian majority. A federal system of government is adopted, and Belarus is persuaded to rejoin in 1938.
In the years following the withdrawal of German troops, the Eastern European states face the difficult task of steering an independent course between both Germany and Russia. Making this more difficult, they run into some disputes internally and with each other. Their form of government and status of their German-installed monarchs present the most immediate questions. In Poland, Prince Karl Stefan succeeds in making himself thoroughly Polish, and winning public favor over the republicans in the nationalist movement. He forces his father, Stefan, to abdicate in 1930 and takes the throne, completing his transformation by assuming the name Casimir V. Polish territory is expanded further, with Lwow captured from Ukraine and some Polish-inhabited territory from Lithuania and Belarus. Casimir’s realm emerges as the strongest of the new states, forging close ties with its neighbors Czechoslovakia and Hungary, as well as with Britain and France. Relations with Germany are even somewhat improved, and in 1934 the reformist SPD government agrees to return the Polish Border Strip.
The German minority-dominated governments of the Baltic states do not long survive the German withdrawal. In 1931 Duke Adolf Frederick is deposed and the United Baltic Duchy splits into the republics of Estonia and Latvia. The death of Mindaugas II (Wilhelm of Urach) in 1928, just as the German occupiers are withdrawing, provides Lithuania with an easy transition to a republic. Frederik Karl of Finland survives, having been uniquely able to ingratiate himself with his new kingdom without a German military presence.
In Russia, the disastrous defeat of 1915 and the humiliating peace imposed by Germany bring popular discontent with Czar Nicholas II and his German-born wife, Alexandra, to near boiling point. The economy suffers heavily from the loss of resources to the German client states, and poverty and hunger become more severe. In mid-1916, bread riots and anti-government protests break out in major cities across the country. Mutinies occur in the army, as soldiers are unwilling to support the czar, who they blame for their humiliation in the war. Nicholas is ultimately forced to abdicate in favor of his son, Alexei, and to go into exile in Britain. Instability continues, however, as the Duma clashes with Alexei’s regents over demands for broad political reforms, and the new government is unable to revive the economy. Radical groups, including Bolsheviks and anarchists, sow disorder and are attacked by the army on several occasions.
The government’s ability to control the far-flung territories of the country is eroded, and some ethnic minorities begin see an opportunity to break away. In 1921, with few Russian troops left in the Caucasus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan declare independence. Several central Asian minorities also revolt, though they can muster much less military resistance. The army’s attempts to reconquer the Caucasus are repelled with surprising ease, and Britain and France urge Russia not to risk coming into conflict with Turkey, as a provision of the 1915 treaty barred Russian troops from areas near the Turkish border.
Enfeebled by his hemophilia, Alexei never assumes power himself, and dies in 1930 at the age of 25. He is succeeded by his father’s brother Michael, who attracts little public support. Socialist groups are gaining stronger support, including within the army. In 1933, a coup deposes Michael and the socialist-controlled Duma declares a republic. The new government scores a boost in popular legitimacy by reclaiming the Crimea, with the help of the local Russian majority. A federal system of government is adopted, and Belarus is persuaded to rejoin in 1938.
In the years following the withdrawal of German troops, the Eastern European states face the difficult task of steering an independent course between both Germany and Russia. Making this more difficult, they run into some disputes internally and with each other. Their form of government and status of their German-installed monarchs present the most immediate questions. In Poland, Prince Karl Stefan succeeds in making himself thoroughly Polish, and winning public favor over the republicans in the nationalist movement. He forces his father, Stefan, to abdicate in 1930 and takes the throne, completing his transformation by assuming the name Casimir V. Polish territory is expanded further, with Lwow captured from Ukraine and some Polish-inhabited territory from Lithuania and Belarus. Casimir’s realm emerges as the strongest of the new states, forging close ties with its neighbors Czechoslovakia and Hungary, as well as with Britain and France. Relations with Germany are even somewhat improved, and in 1934 the reformist SPD government agrees to return the Polish Border Strip.
The German minority-dominated governments of the Baltic states do not long survive the German withdrawal. In 1931 Duke Adolf Frederick is deposed and the United Baltic Duchy splits into the republics of Estonia and Latvia. The death of Mindaugas II (Wilhelm of Urach) in 1928, just as the German occupiers are withdrawing, provides Lithuania with an easy transition to a republic. Frederik Karl of Finland survives, having been uniquely able to ingratiate himself with his new kingdom without a German military presence.
Snake Featherston
Banned
If this happens, then the alliances would be null and void, the result of which is that nobody in Europe trusts anybody ever again. Having to fight *just* Germany and Austria-Hungary, Russia will sensibly not fight itself, it was smart enough not to willingly commit suicide.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Yeah, even as lousily as it performed IOTL, Tsarist Russia lasted for three years. It would not win this war, but it would be a matter of several years for that to happen. And Germany would not relish the experience.
Sorry but the A-H empire crumble and Italy don't get her pound of flesh?
In Rome after a lavish party for the demise of the hated enemy the first move will be getting the italian speaking zone of the empire (Istria, Trieste, Trent and Dalmazia) and probably officially transform Albania in a protectorate or at least annexin Vlora and the formation of Yugoslavia will be a big no no for Italy, after all they had not just seen an adversary die for simple be substitued with another without say nothing.
In Rome after a lavish party for the demise of the hated enemy the first move will be getting the italian speaking zone of the empire (Istria, Trieste, Trent and Dalmazia) and probably officially transform Albania in a protectorate or at least annexin Vlora and the formation of Yugoslavia will be a big no no for Italy, after all they had not just seen an adversary die for simple be substitued with another without say nothing.
ScottColo
A decent 1st attempt but as other people have said, even if Germany doesn't attack in the west France must and there is no way that Russia will fold that quickly or completely. Those two points qualify as ASB I'm afraid.
Britain staying out I'm uncertain of. As others say they can't afford a German dominant Europe, especially of the sort of level you suggest. However there are problems with gaining the political support for a dow if Germany doesn't invade Belgium [or Luxembourg presumably]. The bloodbath of the western front wouldn't be a factor initially as no one expected anything but a quick [and glorious] war and once it starts happening then censorship by the governments would limit knowledge. I would suspect Britain will join but probably after a delay.
If you did somehow get to the point that you suggest, with a huge German empire in the east it might be Germany rather than Austria that collapses. The latter hasn't lost the bulk of it's loyalists on the front and has seen the prestige of a sizeable victory. Also, with Karl almost certainly in charge by now it would have seen reforms. The empire has a long history of ruling a multi-national mix and is actually fairly popular in some Slavic areas such as Croatia, who as the 1940's and 1990's show are not the best of friends with the Serbs. On the other hand Germany is seeking to rule a much, much larger area, with less experience of ruling minorities and a generally harsher and more militarily orientated system. I could see the Social Democrats in Germany increasingly up in arms at the costs, human and financial of the huge occupation army needed and even with the twisted electoral system in Germany gaining even more support.
Steve
A decent 1st attempt but as other people have said, even if Germany doesn't attack in the west France must and there is no way that Russia will fold that quickly or completely. Those two points qualify as ASB I'm afraid.
Britain staying out I'm uncertain of. As others say they can't afford a German dominant Europe, especially of the sort of level you suggest. However there are problems with gaining the political support for a dow if Germany doesn't invade Belgium [or Luxembourg presumably]. The bloodbath of the western front wouldn't be a factor initially as no one expected anything but a quick [and glorious] war and once it starts happening then censorship by the governments would limit knowledge. I would suspect Britain will join but probably after a delay.
If you did somehow get to the point that you suggest, with a huge German empire in the east it might be Germany rather than Austria that collapses. The latter hasn't lost the bulk of it's loyalists on the front and has seen the prestige of a sizeable victory. Also, with Karl almost certainly in charge by now it would have seen reforms. The empire has a long history of ruling a multi-national mix and is actually fairly popular in some Slavic areas such as Croatia, who as the 1940's and 1990's show are not the best of friends with the Serbs. On the other hand Germany is seeking to rule a much, much larger area, with less experience of ruling minorities and a generally harsher and more militarily orientated system. I could see the Social Democrats in Germany increasingly up in arms at the costs, human and financial of the huge occupation army needed and even with the twisted electoral system in Germany gaining even more support.
Steve
Grey Wolf
Donor
I could see that the Baltic duchy could fall and split, but can't see why the monarchy in Lithuania is being magicked away. Presumably its a constitutional monarchy and its all Lithuanian, so why do the power-brokers suddenly junnk it just because the king dies? He's got an heir after all
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf
Donor
Also surely a Russian attack on the Crimea is a declaration of war against the Ottoman Empire as the Tatars are not going to have left themselves without a binding alliance, and the whole idea of an Islamic pan-national entity was quite big in Tatar circles, and they would be very sure to make certain that the Ottomans look after their interests.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
abc123
Banned
Steve, actually the Monarchy was extremly unpopular in Croatia since 1868.
And Croats and Serbs had no SERIOUS conflicts until 1918 or even 1928.
In 1918 Croats were thinking that NOWHERE ON EARTH will be so bad for them as in A-H. And that certainly their brothers- Serbs will be better than Austrians and Hungarians, that they will at least, had the same authonomy as in A-H ( most probably even larger ) and will have a much larger say in governing of country. Also, Croats were more economicly developed and considered self more culturaly developed than Serbs, so they thought that they have nothing to fear in union with Serbia.
The reality soon proved othervise trough, but the hindsight is allways 20/20.
informationfan
Banned
Hi,
the russians fighting with the french and brits, with a blocade, with the italian frontline hold 3 years
without this second front in the west the russians are dead. not in 3 years, not in 2... the whole german army crush the russians, logistic is the ONLY problem - but still a huge problem.
So the russians will ask for peace in autum 1915, otherwise BL will happen (just to be sure that the russians understand the message)
But i doubt the french stay passive - or the brits...
the french need to attack - they will suffer terrible. But the brits will find a way -even if the germans do nothing at all, the brits are forced by contracts to attack germany (so much to "defend belgium"
)but it could be better for the germans, if they change their schlieffenplan (just like before) and try to take the russians. if they do so, the austrians do not loose so many troops and do not suffer so heavy... the russians will be crushed (at last they get much faster much more serious problems, a fast defeat in 1916 is realistic - so no romania siding with the russians, the austrians will defeat the serbs quickly - another enemy out of the war
with this, the greec will not allow french and british troops... bulgaria could joint faster the cp and italy will stay neutral.
In the long run the german situation is improved, the russians crash way earlier, the germans do not suffer so much by the blocade, etc.
Being the evil agressor, british and french propaganda will sound hollow in the us of a - maybe they will even be real neutral - so no little toys by the us of a for france and UK...