Logic and reason, begone foul fiend. Did the OP not explain to you that the Russian army melted like the snows...before then snows even arrived?
Aug-Dec 1914, and voila, Brest-Litovsk!
Any discussion after that is superfluous.
Stop the Trains: War in the West averted in 1914
- Thread starter ScottColo
- Start date
Logic and reason, begone foul fiend. Did the OP not explain to you that the Russian army melted like the snows...before then snows even arrived?
Aug-Dec 1914, and voila, Brest-Litovsk!
Any discussion after that is superfluous.
Part 3
The resistance to German occupation of Eastern Europe drags on through the early 1920s. The manpower and resources required to maintain the occupation is taking an increasing toll on the German military, which is ill suited to fight against the asymmetrical tactics of the insurgents. German troops have been accused of numerous brutal crimes against civilians in the occupied countries, and despite attempts to censor the reports, they have become widely known in the rest of Europe and America. The rebels are receiving financial and material support, as well as a few hardy adventurer volunteers, from abroad. As casualties gradually mount, the conflict is becoming unpopular within Germany. The kaiser's political opponents, who had been marginalized for the first few years after the war, are gaining support again.
Austria has managed to solidify its hold on the Sudetenland and the Littoral, preserving its access to the Adriatic, but nothing else remains of the empire. Galicia is effectively controlled by Polish and Ukrainian nationalist forces. Bukovina, which had been fairly quiet previously, is seized by Romania in 1923, with little resistance from the small, isolated Austrian garrison.
The German-installed monarchs of the occupied countries are becoming increasingly nervous for their own survival, and have begun trying to distance themselves from the Germans and find favor with their subjects. In Poland, Karl Stephan has the advantage of being a fluent Polish speaker since before he became king, but can hardly shake the stigma of being a German puppet. His oldest son, Karl Albrecht, however, has gone completely native. When the Germans begin suspecting him of ties to the rebels and attempt to arrest him, he flees to Western Galicia, where he gains a substantial following speaking out against German domination and for the union of Krakow and Galicia with a liberated Poland. Although many of the nationalist forces are republicans, a bid by Karl Albrecht to seize his father's throne is a distinct possibility.
In 1926, dissatisfaction in Germany with the ongoing conflict in the east and the Imperial government reaches a critical mass. Mass protests and strikes break out, demanding democratic reforms and an end to the fighting. Similar protests in the occupied countries increase, and mutinies occur in the German army, as exhausted soldiers refuse to use force against the protesters. Calls for the kaiser's abdication are heard from some of the crowds and mutineers. Amidst the unrest, evidence of Polish resistance activity appears in the Polish Border Strip, and some German settlers contemplate fleeing.
Wilhelm is told by his advisors and military commanders that the situation is untenable, and while the military pledges to maintain him on the throne, many concessions will have to be made to the opposition. Elections are held early in 1927, and the Social Democratic Party wins a majority in the Reichstag. The kaiser is obliged to appoint Philipp Scheidemann as Chancellor. The aging commander Paul von Hindenburg is brought on as Vice Chancellor in a gesture to placate the old guard, but plays little more than a symbolic role. The new government passes a number of contstitutional amendments curbing the power of the kaiser and the aristocracy. It also announces plans to withdraw all German troops from the occupied countries. As the occupiers prepare to exit, Poland finally annexes Krakow and Western Galicia, and the Scheidemann government hints it may reconsider the status of the Polish Border Strip.
A dejected Kaiser Wilhelm largely withdraws from public life. He feels some relief at being freed from the burdens of power that had so frequently overwhelmed him. But this is dwarfed by bitterness at having seen what had been thought to be a historic victory and the peak of German glory go so sour on his watch.
(Note: I made this map some time ago and added Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan..the situation in Russia and Turkey could be an offshoot of the main story that I'll get to down the road.)
The resistance to German occupation of Eastern Europe drags on through the early 1920s. The manpower and resources required to maintain the occupation is taking an increasing toll on the German military, which is ill suited to fight against the asymmetrical tactics of the insurgents. German troops have been accused of numerous brutal crimes against civilians in the occupied countries, and despite attempts to censor the reports, they have become widely known in the rest of Europe and America. The rebels are receiving financial and material support, as well as a few hardy adventurer volunteers, from abroad. As casualties gradually mount, the conflict is becoming unpopular within Germany. The kaiser's political opponents, who had been marginalized for the first few years after the war, are gaining support again.
Austria has managed to solidify its hold on the Sudetenland and the Littoral, preserving its access to the Adriatic, but nothing else remains of the empire. Galicia is effectively controlled by Polish and Ukrainian nationalist forces. Bukovina, which had been fairly quiet previously, is seized by Romania in 1923, with little resistance from the small, isolated Austrian garrison.
The German-installed monarchs of the occupied countries are becoming increasingly nervous for their own survival, and have begun trying to distance themselves from the Germans and find favor with their subjects. In Poland, Karl Stephan has the advantage of being a fluent Polish speaker since before he became king, but can hardly shake the stigma of being a German puppet. His oldest son, Karl Albrecht, however, has gone completely native. When the Germans begin suspecting him of ties to the rebels and attempt to arrest him, he flees to Western Galicia, where he gains a substantial following speaking out against German domination and for the union of Krakow and Galicia with a liberated Poland. Although many of the nationalist forces are republicans, a bid by Karl Albrecht to seize his father's throne is a distinct possibility.
In 1926, dissatisfaction in Germany with the ongoing conflict in the east and the Imperial government reaches a critical mass. Mass protests and strikes break out, demanding democratic reforms and an end to the fighting. Similar protests in the occupied countries increase, and mutinies occur in the German army, as exhausted soldiers refuse to use force against the protesters. Calls for the kaiser's abdication are heard from some of the crowds and mutineers. Amidst the unrest, evidence of Polish resistance activity appears in the Polish Border Strip, and some German settlers contemplate fleeing.
Wilhelm is told by his advisors and military commanders that the situation is untenable, and while the military pledges to maintain him on the throne, many concessions will have to be made to the opposition. Elections are held early in 1927, and the Social Democratic Party wins a majority in the Reichstag. The kaiser is obliged to appoint Philipp Scheidemann as Chancellor. The aging commander Paul von Hindenburg is brought on as Vice Chancellor in a gesture to placate the old guard, but plays little more than a symbolic role. The new government passes a number of contstitutional amendments curbing the power of the kaiser and the aristocracy. It also announces plans to withdraw all German troops from the occupied countries. As the occupiers prepare to exit, Poland finally annexes Krakow and Western Galicia, and the Scheidemann government hints it may reconsider the status of the Polish Border Strip.
A dejected Kaiser Wilhelm largely withdraws from public life. He feels some relief at being freed from the burdens of power that had so frequently overwhelmed him. But this is dwarfed by bitterness at having seen what had been thought to be a historic victory and the peak of German glory go so sour on his watch.
(Note: I made this map some time ago and added Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan..the situation in Russia and Turkey could be an offshoot of the main story that I'll get to down the road.)
wolf_brother
Banned
Don't listen to the haters Scott, I'm enjoying this TL; I think its well written.
Could you include names of countries on your upcoming maps though? Its hard to keep track of what all is going on in the former Austro-Hungarian empire without some sort of legend or key.
Could you include names of countries on your upcoming maps though? Its hard to keep track of what all is going on in the former Austro-Hungarian empire without some sort of legend or key.
The Space Viking
Banned
Wouldn't the Czechs and Slovaks have two different revolutionary movements? I thought they were two different cultures and were only mashed together due to the post-war situation?
archaeogeek
Banned
Besides the national suicide of the French which is already mentioned, and the fact that this peace treaty in 1915 is impossible:
Why are Serbia and Romania, two countries that threw their lot with the Entente, getting land at all? Austria-Hungary was not on a "long downward slide" in 1914, it was recovering and about to get an emperor whose first plan once peace had come was to set up a federal union of five rather than two countries. Yugoslavia was even shakier than the Habsburg monarchy ever was: in 12 years it was already on the edge of open revolt; the germans barely had to get in and the country had fallen apart.
Without a catastrophic defeat in 1918 and the famines of 1919, none of the conditions that led to the breakdown of things in central Europe would have been there to destroy the now Quintuple Monarchy.
Also, without the Entente, Czechoslovakia wouldn't have existed; it might have been put under Bohemia, but in case of breakdown of the Habsburg domains, they would have parted their merry way. Also, you gave Teschen to the Poles; without it, Czechoslovakia as a state wasn't even able to communicate between its two halves, it was the only rail hub linking both at the time, Poland made that particular landgrab at Munich in 1938.
Why are Serbia and Romania, two countries that threw their lot with the Entente, getting land at all? Austria-Hungary was not on a "long downward slide" in 1914, it was recovering and about to get an emperor whose first plan once peace had come was to set up a federal union of five rather than two countries. Yugoslavia was even shakier than the Habsburg monarchy ever was: in 12 years it was already on the edge of open revolt; the germans barely had to get in and the country had fallen apart.
Without a catastrophic defeat in 1918 and the famines of 1919, none of the conditions that led to the breakdown of things in central Europe would have been there to destroy the now Quintuple Monarchy.
Also, without the Entente, Czechoslovakia wouldn't have existed; it might have been put under Bohemia, but in case of breakdown of the Habsburg domains, they would have parted their merry way. Also, you gave Teschen to the Poles; without it, Czechoslovakia as a state wasn't even able to communicate between its two halves, it was the only rail hub linking both at the time, Poland made that particular landgrab at Munich in 1938.
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That was Franz Ferdinand, the guy who was assassinated. The "Quintuple Monarchy" wouldn't have been created without him.
archaeogeek
Banned
Karl, too, had formulated this plan and was generally in favour of something akin to a "USCE" type federation.
"They lost control" is ridiculous handwaving.
It wouldn't have been created with him. He gave up on the Triple monarchy (and that's as far as he ever went, creating a South Slav crown to counteract Hungarian, Serbian and Italian influence) model by the time of his assassination and only planned to break the stranglehold of Hungarian nobles on politics (via universal suffrage) and enforcement of minority rights, followed by a dictatorship from the centre to stabilize things (it should be noted that FF didn't actually plan to rule long).
So, instead of FF, you get Karl I./IV. who, unlike Franz Ferdinand, was a reformer and who could and did push for reform, even in the middle of the Empire's collapse, a collapse that's unlikely to happen as long as the army continues to exist.
Even then, the Croats, Slovenes and Bosniaks only really went with Serbia after WWI when threatened with increasing encroachment by Italians on their territory, a complete lack of an army and disinterest by the Entente nations to curb their ally. South Slav unification was an idea only really espoused by the Serbs in the country (who managed to get their way by completely bypassing the parliament through a legal loophole). Even though the independence groups in Paris did make agreements with Serbia during the war, they seemed quite happy with not going through with it.
I think Karl was embracing the federalist model later in the war, in an attempt to get better peace terms from the Allies. If he hadn't lost the war, he may not have seen the reform as necessary, and most of the ruling elite probably wouldn't have been keen on it (Franz Ferdinand might have run into the same roadblock).
Remember the key factors here are that the resistance begins in occupied Serbia, Bessarabia, and German-occupied Poland. Once these begin to have some success, other nationalist movements feed off their energy and it spreads into the empire itself. The second key is that the rebels are fighting an asymmetrical insurgency, which the imperial armies can't figure out how to stop (hey, the most powerful armies of today still can't figure it out). The Austrians are undone by facing multiple nationalist insurgencies at once, and since it has soldiers from these ethnic groups within its own army, it is undercut by defections.
Remember the key factors here are that the resistance begins in occupied Serbia, Bessarabia, and German-occupied Poland. Once these begin to have some success, other nationalist movements feed off their energy and it spreads into the empire itself. The second key is that the rebels are fighting an asymmetrical insurgency, which the imperial armies can't figure out how to stop (hey, the most powerful armies of today still can't figure it out). The Austrians are undone by facing multiple nationalist insurgencies at once, and since it has soldiers from these ethnic groups within its own army, it is undercut by defections.
archaeogeek
Banned
Karl was already articulating his support for the federalist model in private conversation in 1912 (ed.: my mistake, Albania was 1913, Bosnia was 1908), before the war and around the time of the Albanian crisis. He had already made it felt that he thought the idea of a triple monarchy was not going far enough, telling it to Franz Ferdinand. It wasn't some kind of "the devil gets remorseful on his death bed" thing, he was already voicing it at a time when the idea of getting the throne was distant and he had a healthy uncle who would have succeeded before: the war and FF's death only made the plan seem more compelling (and both did share a desire to break the power of the hungarian magnates).
No matter who resists, Yugoslavia will not form without the Entente propping up the serbs, IOTL the only reason the SSCS joined the kingdom of Serbia was because a number of serbian nationalists from the south bypassed parliament, and because there was Italy growling at their border and their only military was a fleet. Also, if there is insurgency in Bessarabia and occupied Serbia, it's still not likely to be breaking the empire to this point; for one, it's not the end of the world, it's their borders. For two, the austrians had the experience of fighting in the Balkans - insinuating that the country that gave the world hussars and pandurs would be completely helpless with a minor guerilla on home terrain is absurd. For three, there was also no plans to grab Serbia for Austria to begin with, at most it would have seen a dynasty change and lost Macedonia, and there is no way Macedonia, which had a tiny minority of serbs and was, as it still is, predominantly Bulgarian and Albanian, would have gone to the serbs willingly.
Also, by your ridiculous reasoning that short war = worse peace, Prussia should have gone on and formed Superlativedeutschland with the whole kingdom of Hungary-Croatia in bonus after the 7 weeks war...
No matter who resists, Yugoslavia will not form without the Entente propping up the serbs, IOTL the only reason the SSCS joined the kingdom of Serbia was because a number of serbian nationalists from the south bypassed parliament, and because there was Italy growling at their border and their only military was a fleet. Also, if there is insurgency in Bessarabia and occupied Serbia, it's still not likely to be breaking the empire to this point; for one, it's not the end of the world, it's their borders. For two, the austrians had the experience of fighting in the Balkans - insinuating that the country that gave the world hussars and pandurs would be completely helpless with a minor guerilla on home terrain is absurd. For three, there was also no plans to grab Serbia for Austria to begin with, at most it would have seen a dynasty change and lost Macedonia, and there is no way Macedonia, which had a tiny minority of serbs and was, as it still is, predominantly Bulgarian and Albanian, would have gone to the serbs willingly.
Also, by your ridiculous reasoning that short war = worse peace, Prussia should have gone on and formed Superlativedeutschland with the whole kingdom of Hungary-Croatia in bonus after the 7 weeks war...
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SSCS was a product of groups within the empire developing separately from Serbia proper, but in this scenario, the pan-Slavist/Greater Serbia types are in the lead, starting the fight within Serbia proper and then spreading into Bosnia and Croatia.
I appreciate your desire to keep Austria-Hungary going, I think empires are pretty cool, too. I just don't see it happening. Members of the dynasty considering federalist reforms demonstrates in itself that there was little prospect of holding the whole assortment of ethnicities together wasn't possible for much longer. Maybe you're more familiar with our blessed accidental emperor than I am, but he doesn't strike me as the type who could pull it off. Now, his son Otto is definitely the real deal, but he probably wouldn't arrive in time. Karl wouldn't die at age 34 if he stays in Vienna.
I appreciate your desire to keep Austria-Hungary going, I think empires are pretty cool, too. I just don't see it happening. Members of the dynasty considering federalist reforms demonstrates in itself that there was little prospect of holding the whole assortment of ethnicities together wasn't possible for much longer. Maybe you're more familiar with our blessed accidental emperor than I am, but he doesn't strike me as the type who could pull it off. Now, his son Otto is definitely the real deal, but he probably wouldn't arrive in time. Karl wouldn't die at age 34 if he stays in Vienna.
archaeogeek
Banned
I have no particular desire to keep AH or any empire going actually, the only thing is that there is no way anyone would have fought for the serbians in Croatia who wasn't serbian in 1914. Panslavism as a viable ideology was dead; Yugoslavia, in 1918, was merely an euphemism for greater serbia - that only changed after WW2. Groups within the empire have still developed separately from Serbia proper: Serbia was only annexed 2 years ago even in your ASB timeline: they had anywhere from 6 to 2 centuries apart to develop differing national identities by the 20th century (the Napoleonic administration, particularly, is also what kickstarted slovenian nationalism in its modern form), depending on where you start counting. The situation in the Balkans, in 1914, is not that of Germany in the 1840s.
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