Spanish court in exile in the New World
- Thread starter Strategos' Risk
- Start date
I'm not sure it was normal for a king to marry a majority of his kids to their uncles/nieces, though.
And apparently Maria Isabella's marriage (to her cousin) at the age of 12 was considered unusual (to say nothing of her elder sister's marriage at the age of 10).
unprincipled peter
Donor
From what I gather, both marriages were dynastic motivated, and the girls were closest in age to the intended spouses, who were significantly older (which, yeah, introduces an ewww factor, but wasn't all that uncommon). the ages push the boundary a little, but not really all that much. Carlotta didn't consummate her marriage for a couple years. For a holy moly factor, I present Pedro I of Brazil tried marrying his 7 yr old daughter to his brother, Miguel. I don't think the daughter ever made it out of the nursery before Miguel tried taking over Portugal, prompting Pedro to abandon Brazil and throw Miguel out of Portugal.
Cousins, especially second cousins, were not considered all that big a deal. Nephews/Nieces I'll grant you pushes things. This was an era of extreme turmoil and dynastic arrangements were desperately being made.
I believe she was 14 when it was consummated. Still ew.
I mean, none of George III's kids tried to do child marriages.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Are we going with the OP WI (Spanish Court makes good their attempt to flee to New Spain during Peninsular War)? If so, I think the Court tries to rule from New Spain, claiming to be the rightful court of the Empire.
I believe the flight would have been 1808-1809 (OTL, they started heading toward a southern port in March 1808). This is pre disintegration of the colonial empire. There would have been none of the excuse of self rule while the interloper Joseph Bonaparte was being kicked out. Argentina/Paraguay might still drift toward independence, but overall the Empire would stay loyal to the rightful crown. This may have butterflied Carlos IV abdication. Colonially, the main issue is whether Ferdinand is challenging for the throne. Spain itself is another matter. This POD also probably butterflies the Abdications of Bayonne, which lent legitimacy to Joseph's taking the crown.
IF we posit that the escape occurs after the abdications of Bayonne, who would escape? All the family? Unlikely, since Nap imprisoned (house arrest) Carlos IV and Ferdinand. This would mean one of the other offspring of Carlos would escape and claim the throne from New Spain.
The only way I see a partition of the Empire is if both Carlos (call him V) and Francisco escape and one needs to head to a viceroyalty to maintain Bourbon loyalty. IF Carlos or Francisco make a successful claim to the colonial crown, he may get a viceroyalty in return for giving the Spanish throne back to Carlos IV/Ferdinand.
I don't see a move to partition the empire ala the Aranda Plan. At best you see a son accepting a crown of a colony that's broken free.
IIRC wasn't most of the OTL Latin American Wars of Independence born from them being staunchly loyal to the Borbons rather than the Bonaparte government in power. So why does everyone act like the Spanish Borbons' goose iscooked already? Yes, most of them weren't exactly "liberal" by any stretch of the imagination, but look what Mexico reacted to Maximilian of Austria when he was in power. Even as late as the Plan of Iguala(?) they wanted a Spanish infante if Fernando wouldn't accept the crown himself.
Also, just a thought, has anyone ever considered that their ultra-conservatism was bred from their internment at Valençay/Rome and coming to associate liberalism with being deposed? Not only that but it probably meant that when they got back to Madrid in 1813/1815 they tried to set the clock back to before they were deposed. A stint in Mexico might actually mean they at least don't have the years of rust/idleness in between.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Spanish Bourbons should be in a very decent position. They got kicked out of Spain, so things aren't rosy, but their position in the new world should be rock solid.
But.....Carlos IV and his offspring are not exactly inspiring figures, putting it mildly. I really, really want to root for them, or more precisely, for the Spanish Colonial world. OTL was disastrous for most all of it. Even if ATL comes with a monarch, one can dream that it shakes out better than OTL. Unfortunately, I don't see Carlos IV, Ferdinand VII, or Carlos (would be V if he made it to power) being up to the task. I see them actively being the main cause of their downfall.
For me, if the Bourbon goose gets cooked, it's because they (the Bourbons) jumped into the oven and reached out to light the firewood they cut, split, and bundled into the fireplace themselves. That is a more likely scenario than the colonial population being the chefs.
If it were a generation earlier, the Bourbon goose would be just fine.
I've always wondered how the relationship with the US develops. I can't see Americans not moving into the south west, but on the other hand I'm not sure if the US could beat the Spanish Empire in a war. The state of the Spanish navy probably is the deciding factor.
unprincipled peter
Donor
The devastation of the peninsular war was only half the destruction of the Spanish Empire. Post war, Spain headed straight into extended domestic turmoil. Simultaneously, the colonial part of the Empire splintered and sought independence.
IF this flight of the Bourbons manages to maintain royal hold on the colonial half, much of the turmoil is avoided. And, IF Ferdinand manages to sire a son, Carlos has no pretext to start the first Carlist War. Make no mistake, throughout Spanish society, there's a huge liberal/conservative, have/have not, schism that makes for an uneasy rule. But, with just a little bit better fortune, the Spanish Empire can be more stable. With stability comes growth/prosperity.
OTL, it is well into the 1800s that USA could possibly beat Spain. ATL, IF Spain is semi stable, but maintains a reasonably stable Empire, USA is NOT going to start a war. there will be no independent Texas. There will be no Mex-Am War. At least not as we know it. A war might arise if Spain gets bellicose over the return of Louisiana, or pushes for a large chunk of it in border negotiation. A stable New Spain, backed by Spain, will not be pushed around as Mexico was OTL. IF Ferdinand can hold things together, or hang on with some semblance of unity, and IF he can sire a son with some reasonable amount of ability, you'll see a very different western half of the continent.
Anglo settlers will migrate. Spain will probably welcome, or encourage them, as they did in Louisiana before it was sold out from under them. As long as the Spanish rule is stable, and the Anglos respect Spanish rule, there will be a gradual assimilation morphing a new Anglo-Spanish culture. IF the Anglo settlers rebel, they will be put down. USA will clandestinely back the rebels, but not go to outright war.
Or, the Bourbons fook everything up, resulting in a chaos the USA can exploit.
IIRC, in 1800, Spain had the second strongest navy in Europe (after the British), third strongest after the French navy recovered from the Revolution.
They're not inspiring figures in the OTL world. Where, as I pointed out, there was chance for rust (and counter-revolutionary decay) to set in. I'm far from saying any of them are going to be a match for Napoléon, Bolivar or O'Donnell in terms of "inspiring", but really, all they actually need to do in Mexico is "as little as possible", which, given that Carlos IV will likely be the one in charge, probably isn't too difficult. Here they might end up being like Joao VI of Portugal - who isn't remembered as a very inspiring or even great king in Europe, but the opinion of him in Brasil is different AIUI. Not saying we're getting Joao the Great in Brasil or anything, but Joao's doings were directly related to Brasil being elevated to an "equal" kingdom with Portugal, and Brasil's later independence. Pedro I certainly wasn't some sort of brilliant statesman, since most of his "good ideas" originated in D. Maria Leopoldina's brain AIUI.
@pandizzy @nandalf
Lol, dont worry. I mean, João actually wanted to make Brazil a colony again. Though Pedro wasn't perfect, he actively loved and cared for the land, as did Maria Leopoldina, while João and Carlota Joaquina did not. Honestly, only Maria Leopoldina is remembered fondly by the brazilians of that phase of the imperial family.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Why not?
As an outsider, relying on readily available mass media sources, it seems to me Joao had a moment of goodness, if not greatness. He prepped the colony for elevation in status. From what I've read it was a whirlwind of activity trying to quickly bring the colony (colonies, I think, as Brazil was not a unified colony at the time) out of the backwoods swamp it was.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Did he though, or was that the elites he relied upon for power when he returned to Portugal? My impression is that Joao liked it in Brazil, and would have preferred to stay there and make it the center of the Portuguese Empire. When Portuguese elite rose up and demanded the crown's return, Joao initially tried sending Pedro, but was rebuffed, so off went Joao, leaving Pedro, who was the wrong man for the job.
I've heard nothing good about Carlotta, who actively messed up anything she could in regards to Portugal, and ended up under house 'arrest' several times so Joao could have some peace. I suspect she was involved in the poisoning of Joao, or at least wouldn't be surprised.
I remember hearing that the day Carlota left Brasil she made a great show of beating the dust off her shoes in front of an entire crowd of Brasilian onlookers.
Do you really think people of our backwards swap care about that difference?