Spain during WW2 if Republicans won the Civil War?

[Hvalrossen]

The Spanish Civil War is often seen as a precursor conflict to World War 2 in the sense that many of the weapons, and tactics that would characterize World War 2 was introduced at a earlier stage in development. In our timeline the internal conflict was won by the nationalists, who represented Spain's conservatives and reactionaries. They guided Spain through World War 2 as a neutral party to the conflict, albeit supportive of Germany and Italy. Which demaged Spain's relations with the Western Powers after the war.

What if Spain's Republicans won the Civil War? Would they have preferred to follow a policy of neutrality during World War 2 as the Spain did in our timeline, or would they chose to go to war against Germany and Italy? If Spain remained neutral would they be supporting the allies, or perhaps they would favor neither? Would Germany and Italy have allowed Republican Spain to remain neutral?

 

[Oda]

The country need serious rebuilding so probably stay neutral

 

[Liminia1]

The Spanish Civil War is often seen as a precursor conflict to World War 2 in the sense that many of the weapons, and tactics that would characterize World War 2 was introduced at a earlier stage in development. In our timeline the internal conflict was won by the nationalists, who represented Spain's conservatives and reactionaries. They guided Spain through World War 2 as a neutral party to the conflict, albeit supportive of Germany and Italy. Which demaged Spain's relations with the Western Powers after the war.

What if Spain's Republicans won the Civil War? Would they have preferred to follow a policy of neutrality during World War 2 as the Spain did in our timeline, or would they chose to go to war against Germany and Italy? If Spain remained neutral would they be supporting the allies, or perhaps they would favor neither? Would Germany and Italy have allowed Republican Spain to remain neutral?

This ain't before 1900 buddy

 

[Vinization]

The Republican government will probably want to stay neutral because of the damage caused by the war, but they may not have a choice. A surviving Spanish republic will certainly be under a leftist government in the short term, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Nazis see it as a dagger aimed at their back. If they do, they'll probably invade it.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

It depends on the POD on how you get a republican victory. The extent to which the leftist side is tied to the USSR is important.

If ITTL Spain follows Stalin on foreign policy, then they are actually aligned with Nazi Germany until June 1941. It would be possible for this government to be more favorable to Hitler than Franco was, for example they might let Hitler take Gibraltar.

This changes with Barbarossa, but its safe to assume that Hitler, while crazy, isn't crazy enough to both invade Russia and start a war in Spain, so the Germans will quietly offer Spain neutrality, which will also be accepted.

Spain enters the Cold War as inclined to the Eastern bloc, but geographically surrounded by Western powers. In this situation, it could go the route of Yugoslavia, or go the route of Cuba. After the Cold War, they will probably wind up identical to this timeline's version of Spain, but without the monarchy.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I think if you want a Spanish theater in World War 2, the best and maybe the only way to do that is to figure out a way to have the Spanish Civil War still ongoing when France falls, assuming this doesn't butterfly away the Fall of France. In this case it will be too tempting to the Axis to trade active assistance for the Nationalists in return for a strike against Gibraltar, and in this case the Nationalists really need the help and won't decline. The British will try to get Axis forces bogged down in Spain as much as possible.

But a unified Spanish government, regardless of ideology, will have too many problems to take an active role in World War 2, and the Axis planners sort of realized that they didn't need yet another theater of operations.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

The Spanish Civil War is often seen as a precursor conflict to World War 2 in the sense that many of the weapons, and tactics that would characterize World War 2 was introduced at a earlier stage in development. In our timeline the internal conflict was won by the nationalists, who represented Spain's conservatives and reactionaries. They guided Spain through World War 2 as a neutral party to the conflict, albeit supportive of Germany and Italy. Which demaged Spain's relations with the Western Powers after the war.

What if Spain's Republicans won the Civil War? Would they have preferred to follow a policy of neutrality during World War 2 as the Spain did in our timeline, or would they chose to go to war against Germany and Italy? If Spain remained neutral would they be supporting the allies, or perhaps they would favor neither? Would Germany and Italy have allowed Republican Spain to remain neutral?

They'll be invaded by Germany in WW2.

 

[Pangur]

Neutrality would their first pick but the German invasion of France would change that to support of the Allies. May rather or as well as a Normandy landing an allied attack from Spain

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Neutrality would their first pick but the German invasion of France would change that to support of the Allies. May rather or as well as a Normandy landing an allied attack from Spain

Hitler had many conflicts with Nationalist Spain OTL, so a Communist Spain would be something he would certainly invade.
What this changes in the conflict is that the Allies land in Spain instead of Italy.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

It depends on the POD on how you get a republican victory. The extent to which the leftist side is tied to the USSR is important.

If ITTL Spain follows Stalin on foreign policy, then they are actually aligned with Nazi Germany until June 1941. It would be possible for this government to be more favorable to Hitler than Franco was, for example they might let Hitler take Gibraltar.

What? If OTL Fascist Spain wouldn't let them do that no way in hell an outright leftist Spain is going to willingly let Nazi troops on Spanish soil.

For that matter Stalin would not be in favor of that either because he wasn't a complete idiot.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Italy had clear designs for the Baleares which come to fruition in a Republican win. This definitely shakes a lot of things up and is by far the largest change caused by a Republican win, altering the Med fight regardless.
There also is the question of whether the Republic winning means it isn't as aligned to Moscow (or almost not at all) and can thus be amenable to just sort of stumbling in the conflict by declaring War as a symbolic gestire that ends up a real commitment when France seems to be on the verge of folding.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

I could see Spain supporting France, though without contributing troops. Any liberal democratic regime in Western Europe will be a threat to the Nazis. The Axis Powers showed that they were more than willing to occupy neutral nations, though Spain is much more of a commitment than Greece or Yugoslavia.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

It depends on the POD on how you get a republican victory. The extent to which the leftist side is tied to the USSR is important.

If ITTL Spain follows Stalin on foreign policy, then they are actually aligned with Nazi Germany until June 1941. It would be possible for this government to be more favorable to Hitler than Franco was, for example they might let Hitler take Gibraltar.

No chance. A Stalinist Spain would follow the letter of Molotov-Ribbentrop and remain neutral. The Soviet Union didn’t actually fight the Western Allies from 1939-41 so why would Spain? Certainly a Stalinist Spain would not want German troops on its soil especially after all the Luftwaffe did to places like Guernica.

Neutrality would their first pick but the German invasion of France would change that to support of the Allies. May rather or as well as a Normandy landing an allied attack from Spain

They might enter the war in 1943 or, like Turkey, stay neutral until 1945.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Probably sucks up nazi manpower and the war is shorter by 6 months.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

A number of commentators are missing that Spain ITTL would be aligned with the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union between August 1939 and June 1941 was aligned with Hitler, to the point of sending Germany tons of raw material needed to fight the British and the French, and to the point that the British and French considered bombing oil fields within the Soviet Union. I thought more posters here understood that.

Operation Felix wouldn't involve participation of Spanish troops, just Spain letting German troops pass through their territory. OTL the Franco regime let u-boats re-provision at Spanish ports, and even sent Spanish troops to fight alongside the Germans in Russia. Spain still remained "neutral". I think events ITTL increase the chances of Felix happening, while the Nazi-Soviet Pact is in effect.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

Operation Felix wouldn't involve participation of Spanish troops, just Spain letting German troops pass through their territory. OTL the Franco regime let u-boats re-provision at Spanish ports, and even sent Spanish troops to fight alongside the Germans in Russia. Spain still remained "neutral". I think events ITTL increase the chances of Felix happening, while the Nazi-Soviet Pact is in effect.

Certainly Stalinist Spain would trade with the Axis. But I’d say there’s a big difference between providing resources to the Axis and actively harbouring Axis troops. Some neutral countries allowed German troops to cross their territory it is true. Sweden, for instance, allowed the Wehrmacht to use northern railways to transport troops from Norway to Finland. But the Swedes only allowed the Germans to move troops from German occupied territory to a German allied nation. Not as a base for offensive operations. Very different to allowing the Wehrmacht to use your country as a base for a major military operation. Allowing the Germans to use Spanish territory to attack Gibraltar is Spain participating in a direct attack on the Western Allies. There’s no way TTL Operation Felix doesn’t lead to Spain getting drawn into the war so I think it’s highly unlikely the Spanish Republicans allow it.

 

[Parmenion]

The Republican government will probably want to stay neutral because of the damage caused by the war, but they may not have a choice. A surviving Spanish republic will certainly be under a leftist government in the short term, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Nazis see it as a dagger aimed at their back. If they do, they'll probably invade it.

If they do that'll probably backfire pretty badly, Spain is large enough the allies will have time to land supporting troops somewhere, so Germany winds up with a second front 3 years early

 

[raharris1973]

A number of commentators are missing that Spain ITTL would be aligned with the Soviet Union,

This is too deterministic.

Operation Felix wouldn't involve participation of Spanish troops, just Spain letting German troops pass through their territory. OTL the Franco regime let u-boats re-provision at Spanish ports, and even sent Spanish troops to fight alongside the Germans in Russia. Spain still remained "neutral". I think events ITTL increase the chances of Felix happening, while the Nazi-Soviet Pact is in effect.

This is super double-plus deterministic, in a very specific way. It presupposes not only that Spain is Stalinist, but that Stalin in Moscow directs his Stalinist Spanish proxies to allow their territory to be used as an avenue for a potentially decisive strategic German attack on Britain, something Stalin never allowed Soviet territory to be used for.

Certainly Stalinist Spain would trade with the Axis. But I’d say there’s a big difference between providing resources to the Axis and actively harbouring Axis troops. Some neutral countries allowed German troops to cross their territory it is true. Sweden, for instance, allowed the Wehrmacht to use northern railways to transport troops from Norway to Finland. But the Swedes only allowed the Germans to move troops from German occupied territory to a German allied nation. Not as a base for offensive operations. Very different to allowing the Wehrmacht to use your country as a base for a major military operation. Allowing the Germans to use Spanish territory to attack Gibraltar is Spain participating in a direct attack on the Western Allies. There’s no way TTL Operation Felix doesn’t lead to Spain getting drawn into the war so I think it’s highly unlikely the Spanish Republicans allow it.

Exactly.

If ITTL Spain follows Stalin on foreign policy, then they are actually aligned with Nazi Germany until June 1941. It would be possible for this government to be more favorable to Hitler than Franco was, for example they might let Hitler take Gibraltar.

"aligned with Nazi Germany" is an overstatement. The Stalinist foreign policy was closer, friendlier to Germany than to the west, and traded with German, but not aligned with it. The USSR still still traded with the UK and sought to avoid war with it, and would not encourage a Spain whose foreign policy it was directing to commit an act of war on Britain by hosting a Nazi invading force.

This changes with Barbarossa, but its safe to assume that Hitler, while crazy, isn't crazy enough to both invade Russia and start a war in Spain, so the Germans will quietly offer Spain neutrality, which will also be accepted.

But if Spain is such a Stalinist controlled satellite of the USSR, would Hitler let mere insanity and impracticality of the plan stop him from attacking Stalinist Spain and the USSR at the same time, and make the offer of neutrality? Would Hitler trust Stalinist Spain (a really Stalinist Spain or one he just suspects is) to keep any neutrality deal, or to stab him in the back? And, especially if really Stalinist, wouldn't Spain refuse the neutrality offer and fight the Nazis out of loyalty to Stalin? Within days of a Barbarossa start, the USSR would be cheering for Spanish fighting in the west, encouraging them to do anything, including joint attacks on the Nazis with British forces, to help put the Nazis under a second front.

I actually think that a Spanish Republic, unless it for some reason looks like it very much distanced itself from its Soviet benefactor after winning the Spanish Civil War, and the Nazi Germans of all people *believe* that, will cause a problem for the Germans in 1941 after the fall of France. Germany basically has to make any and all plans for attacking either Spain, or the USSR, plans to totally invade and crush *both* of them, starting exactly the same day, in order to maintain surprise, because he is likely to see them as inseparable allies.

I think if you want a Spanish theater in World War 2, the best and maybe the only way to do that is to figure out a way to have the Spanish Civil War still ongoing when France falls, assuming this doesn't butterfly away the Fall of France. In this case it will be too tempting to the Axis to trade active assistance for the Nationalists in return for a strike against Gibraltar, and in this case the Nationalists really need the help and won't decline. The British will try to get Axis forces bogged down in Spain as much as possible.

This is indeed the best way. Not the only west, but the best.

 

[DougM]

I disagree with most of you.
Assuming the civil was was at least as nasty as it was and just that the other side wins I still think Spain stays out of the war. It is in no shape to get involved.
And until France falls there is no practical way to get enough troop in position to go after Gibraltar not that a Neutral Spain would allow it. They know that if Spain allows Germany to attack anyone from Spain they may as well declare war themselves as the West/Great Britain will view it as such.
And as much as Germany may have liked to invade Spain how were they going to do it? Were they to give up invading the USSR?
Germany was not THAT powerfull. They didn’t have a ton of extra troops just laying around. And even Hitler was not that stupid. He had his goals and he tried to accomplish them. And giving up his other goals to try and invade Spain was not one of his goals.
I suppose he could have given up some of his other invasions but I doubt it, As they had use to him, in achieving his primary goals.
He invaded France because France forced a war, he attacked GB for the Sane reason. Most his escapades around the Med were to protect Italy and his underbelly.
His northern adventures were a bit of a stretch but that was the only major use of troops that was questionable. Well it all was questionable but… if your goal is to unite all the Germans and get them room and resources and thus invade Russia then in a twisted way his idiotic invasions make a sort of dumb logic.
Now I suppose if you think he was insane enough to try and stretch his troops even farther then he did you could argue the point. But why would he? Hitler had demonstrated that he was willing to hold off until later with other things. He waited on invading the USSR until he had France and GB out of the way (and lets be honest in early 1941 GB was not an immediate threat to Germany) He left “free France” until he basically had yo deal with them. He never did invade some places like Switzerland.
So as crazy as Hitler was at the start of the war he was not completely stupid. He most.y just under estimated how hard invading the USSR would be while over estimating how good his troops were. And considering how badly things went for the France and GB in France it is almost understandable for him to believe his own propaganda.
But the only short term goal that could benefit Germany by invading Spain would be knocking out Gib and that was frankly not worth the cost of invading and occupying Spain as long as Spain remains neutral. It is not like taking out Gibraltar would get GB to sue for peace. And it wont even completely stop GBs use of the Med (admittedly it would hurt)

So frankly I doubt that the war changes much if any with a different government in Spain, Post WW2 it may change things depending on how pro Germany Spain was and how Pro USSR it is.

But I suspect that Hitler will add Spain to his list of countries to be dealt with after the USSR. Along with Switzerland and every other neutral country in Europe.

 

[htgriffin]

It depends on the POD on how you get a republican victory. The extent to which the leftist side is tied to the USSR is important.

If ITTL Spain follows Stalin on foreign policy, then they are actually aligned with Nazi Germany until June 1941. It would be possible for this government to be more favorable to Hitler than Franco was, for example they might let Hitler take Gibraltar.

Considering how much of the Red Army would be in Spain at that point (i.e. none) it would be far more likely that there would be an open break with Moscow over this (along with at least a few of the international Communist Parties following Madrid).

A number of commentators are missing that Spain ITTL would be aligned with the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union between August 1939 and June 1941 was aligned with Hitler, to the point of sending Germany tons of raw material needed to fight the British and the French, and to the point that the British and French considered bombing oil fields within the Soviet Union. I thought more posters here understood that.

Any iteration of Republican Spain also just got done fighting a vicious war against the Axis powers, and whoever is in charge would be very unwilling to make friends with the regimes in question so soon after.