Soviet invasion of poland 1939

[BELFAST]

Hitler does a deal with Stalin in exchange for a much better trade deal and stays out of Poland.
Soviets invades Poland and the same day the Germans did OTL.
The Polish army is mostly deployed to the German border so are not in a good position to defend.
Germany avoids war with the British and French and Stalin starts to look like he will be a problem for the British and French.
What do the British and French do?

 

[Snaut]

Why is Hitler suddenly deciding to call off his conquest of Europe?

Assuming it happens somehow, the Poles quickly redeploy eastwards. They have inferior numbers and equipment, but the Soviets have abysmal command and morale due to the purges. The Soviet attack will activate the Polish-Romanian alliance so the Red Army will be facing up to c. 50 enemy divisions. Later on they might even be joined by some kind of Free Ukrainian legion recruited from Ukrainian POWs. The Allies might form such a thing since they won't have anything to lose if they're already being attacked. I expect that the result will resemble a very big winter war if no other major powers get involved. The Soviets will advance very slowly and will encounter humiliating failures on a regular basis. A British/French threat may even be enough to make Stalin back down like he did in OTL in Finland, possibly with minor gains.

 

[BELFAST]

Why is Hitler suddenly deciding to call off his conquest of Europe?

Not calling off his conquest of Europe. Just adapting different tactics.
It shortens his supply lines for any future war with the soviets and gets more oil and other resources etc for the soviets in exchange for more land.
The Soviets when they get to the border with Germany are at the end of long supply lines.

Assuming it happens somehow, the Poles quickly redeploy eastwards. They have inferior numbers and equipment, but the Soviets have abysmal command and morale due to the purges. The Soviet attack will activate the Polish-Romanian alliance so the Red Army will be facing up to c. 50 enemy divisions. Later on they might even be joined by some kind of Free Ukrainian legion recruited from Ukrainian POWs. The Allies might form such a thing since they won't have anything to lose if they're already being attacked. I expect that the result will resemble a very big winter war if no other major powers get involved. The Soviets will advance very slowly and will encounter humiliating failures on a regular basis. A British/French threat may even be enough to make Stalin back down like he did in OTL in Finland, possibly with minor gains.

maybe.
I think the soviets will have the numbers to win but take heavy losses. the Poles may be slow to move their defences for the German border and they will be expecting an attack from there.
I am not sure Rumania would want to be involved unless they are backed by the big powers.
It looks like Hitler is honouring his deal with chamberlain. "peace in our time"

 

[nbcman]

Hitler does a deal with Stalin in exchange for a much better trade deal and stays out of Poland.
Soviets invades Poland and the same day the Germans did OTL.
The Polish army is mostly deployed to the German border so are not in a good position to defend.
Germany avoids war with the British and French and Stalin starts to look like he will be a problem for the British and French.
What do the British and French do?

Stalin is not going anywhere. The Soviets would not attack until after they had signed a cease fire with the Japanese who they had been fighting with in the summer 1939. If I remember correctly that treaty did not go into effect until the 16th and the Soviets invaded on the 17th. So why would Stalin have a change of heart ITTL?
EDIT:
Sources: Battle of Khalkhin Gol wiki https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol
Soviet invasion of Poland wiki

Soviet invasion of Poland - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[BELFAST]

Stalin is not going anywhere. The Soviets would not attack until after they had signed a cease fire with the Japanese who they had been fighting with in the summer 1939. If I remember correctly that treaty did not go into effect until the 16th and the Soviets invaded on the 17th. So why would Stalin have a change of heart ITTL?
EDIT:
Sources: Battle of Khalkhin Gol wiki https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol
Soviet invasion of Poland wiki

Soviet invasion of Poland - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Ok, we can go with a Soviet invasion on the 17th.
The big question is how will the British and French react to the Soviet control of Poland and the baltic nations.

 

[muskeg13]

Ok, we can go with a Soviet invasion on the 17th.
The big question is how will the British and French react to the Soviet control of Poland and the baltic nations.

Yes! This is the big question, but a host of other questions also arise:
Does the Soviet occupation of the Baltics still occur, or occur on its historic timeline?

Does the Winter War with Finland still occur,and if it does, will the USSR suffer an even worse defeat?

Along with being bogged down occupying Poland and possibly the Baltics and fighting a losing war in Finland, does this prompt Germany and Japan to renege on their Non-aggression Pacts and take advantage of Soviet misfortune to attack.

Now, go back to the big first question, what do France and GB do?

 

[James123456]

Does the Winter War with Finland still occur,and if it does, will the USSR suffer an even worse defeat?

Finland was forced to give their main industrial center and second largest city to the Soviets along with their fourth largest city, and many other major cities. In the end, the Finnish were forced to give up more territory than the Soviets originally demanded. I wouldn’t really call this a Finnish Victory but you do you I guess. An Embarrassment for the Red Army? Sure. A Finnish Victory? No.

Furthermore, I don’t see the Soviets losing the Winter War as they did pretty well against the Finnish in OTL after Kliment Voroshilov was replaced with Semyon Timoshenko. The Main problem with the Soviets during the Winter War was that they tried to implement the same tactics the Germans used, and the problem with this was that these tactics do not work on Finland as Finland lacks roads and is mostly composed of Swamp and Forests. After Kliment Voroshilov was replaced with Semyon Timoshenko, he reorganised and tightened control between the different branches of service in the Red Army. Furthermore, he changed the tactical doctrines to meet the realities of the situation. On the first of February, he launched an offensive against Finnish lines and by February 11, the Soviets achieved a breakthrough during the Second Battle of Summa, the Finnish Defensive Lines collapsed, and the Finnish were forced to fall back.

 

[JamesBond88]

I think it’s quite reasonable to assume the WAllies could bomb the Baku oil fields in this timeline. Whether or not there’d be a full war between the Soviets and them I’m unsure.

If the invasion bogs down Hitler could make an offer to the Poles to trade territory for support. He gets the Corridor and maybe more, and gets a Europe united against Soviet aggression.

 

[James123456]

I think it’s quite reasonable to assume the WAllies could bomb the Baku oil fields in this timeline. Whether or not there’d be a full war between the Soviets and them I’m unsure.

If the invasion bogs down Hitler could make an offer to the Poles to trade territory for support. He gets the Corridor and maybe more, and gets a Europe united against Soviet aggression.

Allied bombers would probably have been ineffective in destroying the fields. 1940 British night bombing raids against Germany were very inaccurate, with few bombs dropped on or anywhere near their targets. Only around 100 bombers carrying about half ton of bombs were going to be used. Such poor accuracy and low payload made any great effect on Soviet oil facilities extremely unlikely. It is also important to note that said Bombers would not have any fighters to accompany them. Furthermore, Soviet leadership anticipated Allied attacks. Would there be a war between the West and the Soviet Union outside of Air Raids and Small Skirmishes? I don’t know.

I doubt that the Soviet invasion of Poland would bog down, seeing how the Soviets would not be facing the same problems they had against the Finnish.

 

[tonycat77]

Hitler and Mussolini would jump at PR move, their wet dream of a crusade against Bolshevism would be realized.
You'd see a multinational legion not unlike the OTL SS's foreign service, Blue Division, etc and OTL 2022 Ukrainian ones being raised.
If that beer hall bomb goes off, Germany gets a saner leader, so probably no western assault, Germany trades Danzig for arms and men.
Britain and France would probably be very angry and would be forced by public opinion to join in.
I can't see more than token supports however, they considered Germany and Italy to be bigger threat to liberal democracy in western europe.

 

[James123456]

Along with being bogged down occupying Poland and possibly the Baltics and fighting a losing war in Finland, does this prompt Germany and Japan to renege on their Non-aggression Pacts and take advantage of Soviet misfortune to attack.

Now, go back to the big first question, what do France and GB do?

I can’t see Japan launching an invasion against the Soviet Union. The Soviets kept a substantial amount of forces in the Far East, even after Germany invaded. Even when the Germans were at the gates of Moscow, the Soviets had around 1,200,000 soldiers in the Far East with the Japanese only having around 500,000 to 900,000 available to invade the Soviet Union. The Soviets also had a Satellite state in the region, Mongolia who could provide a further 80,000 Soldiers. Furthermore, the Japanese suffered a large amount of losses against the Soviets during the Battles of Khalkhin Gol.

As for what France or Great Britain will do? I’m not sure.

 

[Crueldwarf]

If Germany do not attack Poland and UK and France do not declare war on Germany Stalin will do literally nothing. There would be no invasion of Poland. no pressure on Baltics and no Winter War. All of these things happened because there was a big war in Europe and Stalin was sure that no one will be able to interfere.

Soviet Union will sit very tight and very quietly doing nothing drastic in Europe like they did in previous decade. Because invading anyone when European powers do not fight each other is a literal invitation for pan-European anti-Bolshevik Crusade and Stalin knew that rather well.

 

[nbcman]

Ok, we can go with a Soviet invasion on the 17th.
The big question is how will the British and French react to the Soviet control of Poland and the baltic nations.

Ok. So now Stalin sees that the Nazi’s haven’t attacked Poland for over 2 weeks and decides the best thing to do is to order the Red Army to bum rush to the West since his erstwhile conspirator in dividing Poland up will surely not double cross him? Not gonna happen.

Red Alert 1939 isn’t going to happen.

 

[NoMommsen]

... once and again I'm astonished of the rigidity into the belief of unchangebility of for us historical events and their involved persons actions ...

Stalin offering France and Czechoslovakia military support against germany during the Sudeten-crisis for being involved into the Munich conference was rejected by France at least. Likely one reason Stalin still didn't turn down the negotiations that eventually lead to the MR-pact (economical talks were already taking place for some time then).

Stalin - not being the most unemotional human - could have felt even more ... "pissed" than IOTL ...

The occupation of Czechia after Slovakia had seceeded and declared its independence on 14th March (thereby removing the 'object' of the Munich agreement -Czechoslovakia- making it superfluous, esp. after its sovereignity had already been more or less destroyed by the First Vianna Award in november 1938) rather led to an increase of diplomatic activity between Germany and the USSR.
The silent impotence of the western powers when Hitler Germany occupied the Memelland (Klaipeda Region) on 22nd March also didn't much to strengthen Stalins 'confidence' into them instead making a possible deal – however (inofficially) timely ‚limited‘ - with Hitler becomming even more attractive with one ruthless dictator looking at another one.

What these events IMHO also show:
Hitler – despite his since early 1938 repeatedly and with increasing urge uttered wishes for going to WAR (for whatever reason available) – was well able to withdraw this urge and cashier in some ‚victories‘ without even a shot fired.
Sudeten on Munich in September 1938, the Protectorate mid-March 1939, Klaipeda end-March 1939. Three opportunities he loudly cried first for war but then went with the ‚diplomatic‘ not the militaristic solution.

Why not also a forth time given the opportunity?

Serious talks between german and soviet diplomacy abaout some agreement began in early August after the economical talks had reached their home straight accompanied by in soviet perception rather dilatory military talks with France and Britain.
At that time the Battles of Khalkin Gol had reached some ‚stalemate‘ phase with Tokyos repeatedly stated desire to not escalate this conflict further (what Zhukov used to strongly reinforce his troops). Therefore this front could be - the one way or the other – considered ‚safe‘ by Stalin. And with the successfull offensive of Zhukov starting on 20th August and continuing all thriugh the rest of the month this ‚safety of the East‘ can only increase.
I'm confident a/the Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact will occur very likely almost as IOTL.

------------ now for some "alternate history" ---------

When Hitler gets Mussolinis message of his non-readiness for war on evening 25th he might not only withdraw as IOTL the already given order for the attack on Poland for 04:30 of the 26th August. But also during the now following ranting fit (as they were all the time every time possible on getting unwanted info) about Musso ‚stabbing him into the back‘ by lying (at least as such perceived) on Italys war readiness he decides – at least for the time being – to return to his original time table about war readiness in 1940 (remember 4-Year-Plan statements of 1936).

And: No
Hitler never seriously thought about economics not even the one necessary for war and would therefore not have seen or even cared about – would he have seen it - the ‚brokeness‘ (glory to his lordship Saint Tooze) of germany. But … some others might have and might have contemplated some changes to the German-Soviet Credit Agreement of 19th August esp. regarding possible increases of soviet deliverances.

The polish crisis at hands might be prolongated ITTL with Hitler allowing for a polish emissary to show up in Berlin, with some deliberate delays by the Poles producing an ‚empowered‘ emissary (as IOTL), probably on 2nd or 3rd September with the british diplomacy strongly arguing/pressuring the Poles for (as IOTL).
Maybe then at first polish-german only negotiations around the 16-Points-Plan may begin rather quickly augmented by british, french, italian diplomacy this time giving ample time for all involed and asked to comment upon these 16 points contarry to OTL.
USSR may once again ask for being involved what at such a point of time (after the MR-Pact) esp. the Poles wont be very fond of. Whatever might be decided upon this point the german diplomats keep – as a measure of good will – the soviets well informed about what’s going on.

First to second week of September:
Negotiations with the japanese go well, as well as the requested re-negotiation of German-Soviet Credit agreement. Stalin might already thsi time demand some changes to the ‚zones of interests’ of the secret protocol of the MR-Pact.
With the western powers once again showing their commitment ot appeasement as well as the afforementioned change in Stalins perception of them (as even more impotent while being pissed by them) he might even add – esp. Regarding Poland – some phrase hinting at a desire to strike against Poland ASAP.
Hitler also with the western allies once again negotiating in favor for him – their approval of something along the lines of said 16 point as a matter of buying time for their own rearmament becomming more and more obvious – began to further disregard them they becoming for the time being his MAYOR opponent to fight before turning for Lebensraum.

Therefore:
On 15th September not only the ceasefire for Khalkin Gol is signed but also a/the „Berlin Agreement“ on some modified 16 points plan including Danzig becomming part of the Reich, a plebiscite of the corridor secured by international observers and securities with the guarantee of extraterritorial access to Baltic ports for whoever ‚looses‘ this plebiscite. In order to await the foreign asecurities (british, italian, french) german and polish troops are to withdraw from the borders.

Hitler begins to place these troops now to quite some degree on the western border (though not all, keeping ‚local troops‘ at their garrisons (in somewhat rather … cramped conditions). Polish troops might begin to be partially (still Germany is seen as more immediatly threatening esp. As the foreign securities are not in place yet) re-deployed to their eastern front, as slowly the russians have built up quite some troop concentrations there. …
However, with Hitler still posing as the more threatening threat on the western borders thereby offsetting fears of their possible interference ion Poland on about 20th September – after some border-incidents of polish troops only in the East – Stalin invades Poland.

tadaah

 

[NoMommsen]

...
Now, go back to the big first question, what do France and GB do?

Tbh … for the polish goverment to accept such a 16-points-based agreement (further named Berlin-Agreement) I rendered it almost inevitable that the british and french goverment offer/sign an alliance treaty with Poland as @BurkeanLibCon has described here.
As said IMHO the western powers would be interested in such an agreement – however „untrustworthy“ Hitler might be rendered – as a means for buying armament time.

Therefore:
with USSR invading Poland on 20th Sept., the british and french goverment would be „forced“ to declare war on the USSR on … 22nd Sept.(give it some time for an ultimatum to exspire). … but not yet Germany … 😲
In this scenario Hitler would be 'free' to postpone any agressive move against the western powers as long as he wants (regardless how few he might want 😉). Though as soon as he cashiers in his gains of Poland ... the wallies might also declare war upon him.

 

[thaddeus]

my understanding during the interwar period the threat the Soviets (Stalin) feared most was the so-called Phantom Alliance of Germany, Japan, and Poland (they had fared badly in previous wars with all three.)

that alliance never transpired, or was seriously pursued (except, I guess, as part of the larger Anti-Comintern Pact, which Poland never joined) but at some level would the threat govern Soviet actions?

they are never going to invade Poland first and create even the possibility of a de facto alliance between Germany-Poland?

there would need to be a POD years prior to 1939, where the Nazi and Soviet regimes had some trade agreements and other dealings.

 

[NoMommsen]

...
they are never going to invade Poland first and create even the possibility of a de facto alliance between Germany-Poland?
...

... exactly what the MR Pact was made for and dimished - at least for the next couple of months - to undetectability.

 

[Garrison]

Hitler does a deal with Stalin in exchange for a much better trade deal and stays out of Poland.
Soviets invades Poland and the same day the Germans did OTL.
The Polish army is mostly deployed to the German border so are not in a good position to defend.
Germany avoids war with the British and French and Stalin starts to look like he will be a problem for the British and French.
What do the British and French do?

Doesn't make much sense. Why is Hitler going to let the Soviets control East Prussia? Why is he going to be willing to have the Soviets right on the borders of Germany? And above all why is Hitler, the man who was so desperate for war going to pass on the opportunity. These ideas of Hitler somehow deciding to sit and do nothing when he has the opportunity to take the initiative make no sense whatsoever, they simply don't fit the character of the man.

 

[Crueldwarf]

However, with Hitler still posing as the more threatening threat on the western borders thereby offsetting fears of their possible interference ion Poland on about 20th September – after some border-incidents of polish troops only in the East – Stalin invades Poland.

tadaah

It will not work that way. Because the issue is not potential German help to Poland and not even ongoing tensions and open warfare with Japan. The issue is that if United Kingdom and France are not in a state of war with Germany, Soviets will not move against anyone. It is suicidal to a point of stupidity because it would be trivially easy for the Germans to switch camp, portray itself as a defender of Poland against Bolshevik threat and essentially materialize Stalin worst nightmare of all major powers in Europe being a united front against USSR.
So any version with USSR starting shit in Europe before Germans will never happen outside of ASB influences.

 

[NoMommsen]

...The issue is that if United Kingdom and France are not in a state of war with Germany, Soviets will not move against anyone. It is suicidal to a point of stupidity because it would be trivially easy for the Germans to switch camp, portray itself as a defender of Poland against Bolshevik threat and essentially materialize Stalin worst nightmare of all major powers in Europe being a united front against USSR.
...

What is rather trivial nonsense as the goverments of the UK and France would never ever accept Hitler in their camp.
The occasions on which Hitler-Germanys trustworthiness are debunked as non-existant in March 1939 the latest are legion on this forum.
Also the western power would and could not deliver what Stalin for the time being was delivering : inabundant resources for the german armaments industry.

Doesn't make much sense. Why is Hitler going to let the Soviets control East Prussia?

Where are the Soviets "controling" East Prussia in the scenarios offered here?

Why is he going to be willing to have the Soviets right on the borders of Germany?

Out of the same reasons he did it IOTL.

And above all why is Hitler, the man who was so desperate for war going to pass on the opportunity. These ideas of Hitler somehow deciding to sit and do nothing when he has the opportunity to take the initiative make no sense whatsoever, they simply don't fit the character of the man.

Only that the man often enough did as you say he wouldn't on such opportunities. Seems in reality he didn't fit your perception of his character. ...