South China Sea if US kept part of Philippines?

[DominusNovus]

Suppose the following:
- We have a great butterfly net
- While still granting the Philippines independence, the US formally sets a few islands aside to keep. If we’re being more modest, then something like Palawan, Mindoro, and/or their outlying smaller islands. If we’re indulging some 51st state fun, then add in Luzon, but that will really strain the butterfly net.

So, due to our two suppositions, the 20th and 21st centuries go pretty much as they historically have. However, when the PRC starts getting more ambitious, what is going to happen in the South China Sea?

Its one thing to try to enforce the 9 dash line against the Philippines and Vietnam and the rest. It is a whole nother story to try to do so against the US, with the corresponding maritime claims and the navy to back them up. Would the Communists even bother? What would their option be here, that doesn’t involve going toe to toe with the USN?

 

[Erizium]

If the US already had the portions of the Philippines, you can expect them to reach into the Spratly Islands at the minimum, or maybe even the Paracels in the event of a communist Vietnam. I doubt the Chinese would b as ambitious as they are when its US bases and a permanent US carrier fleet stationed in thr South China Sea

 

[DominusNovus]

I have another scenario, also inspired by recent events, that is similar enough that I’d rather not make another thread for it. Perhaps @rfmcdonald can chime in, I know he is somewhat knowledgeable on the topic.

Suppose that the Philippines grows more economically during the 20th century, such that they are one of the Asian Tiger economies. Along with that comes a potent navy and closer trade ties with the US and the other Asian Tiger economies, as well as Japan and China.

What does the conflict in the South China Sea look like in this scenario?