South Africa abolishes apartheid in the 1960s?

[Vinization]

Let's say that, through a series of PODs starting in the 1950s, such as the Progressive Party not forming and South Africa remaining a monarchy in the 1960 referendum (the margin was quite narrow, after all), the United Party, led by De Villiers Graaff, returns to power in the 1961 election.

First, how would they be in government, and second, could they dismantle the apartheid state, at least gradually? How would this affect South Africa's economy (when did the sanctions really begin to bite?) and politics? How would the African National Congress react to these changes? Finally, what about Rhodesia? Would they still issue their UDI? Alternatively, could the UFP retain power in the 1962 election and continue with its own gradual reforms?

 

[Raferty]

Many things will probably be similar long term - South Africa will attempt to dominate its region, and make common cause with friendly states opposed to Marxist takeovers. It will probably attempt to introduce the franchise in a limited fashion to the recently excluded Cape Population in an attempt to weaken the Afrikaner component of the electorate and like Rhodesia, extend the franchise to Africans who meet a property standard. It will be pressured to go further on this over time - by the time majority rule arrives, its possible that the ANC isn't so hegemonic as other strands, such as Inkatha and Black Consciousness, will not have been so thoroughly purged by the ANC.

Rhodesia will cause a crisis of sorts between South Africa and Britain as the South Africans aren't going to want to see their border menaced by a new hostile state and will likely ironically enough replicate the OTL relationship of 2000s era "Quiet Diplomacy", with Graaf and his successors talking about how they were having an impact on Smith to be more reasonable just as Mbeki said the same thing about Mugabe. Its likely that Rhodesia lasts only as long as Mozambique remains Portuguese or neutral - once that border became a haven for ZANU, there was no way the state could continue long term. If South Africa in this scenario intervenes there, things could change.

Now, it is possible you could see eventually violent Afrikaner opposition - it has to be emphasized what a critical role De Klerk played in OTL in defanging what could have been a very nasty situation, basically by lying shamelessly to his electorate about what was happening in the handover of power. This kind of behavior could happen either early on or closer to whenever the United Party looks to transition to majority rule - its unlikely the Afrikaner population will be as trusting of the UP as they were of the Nats.

 

[Vinization]

Many things will probably be similar long term - South Africa will attempt to dominate its region, and make common cause with friendly states opposed to Marxist takeovers. It will probably attempt to introduce the franchise in a limited fashion to the recently excluded Cape Population in an attempt to weaken the Afrikaner component of the electorate and like Rhodesia, extend the franchise to Africans who meet a property standard. It will be pressured to go further on this over time - by the time majority rule arrives, its possible that the ANC isn't so hegemonic as other strands, such as Inkatha and Black Consciousness, will not have been so thoroughly purged by the ANC.

Huh, so the ANC may not dominate South African politics to the extent it did (and still does) after apartheid ends ITTL? Interesting.

Rhodesia will cause a crisis of sorts between South Africa and Britain as the South Africans aren't going to want to see their border menaced by a new hostile state and will likely ironically enough replicate the OTL relationship of 2000s era "Quiet Diplomacy", with Graaf and his successors talking about how they were having an impact on Smith to be more reasonable just as Mbeki said the same thing about Mugabe. Its likely that Rhodesia lasts only as long as Mozambique remains Portuguese or neutral - once that border became a haven for ZANU, there was no way the state could continue long term. If South Africa in this scenario intervenes there, things could change.

What if Edgar Whitehead stays in power ITTL? IIRC the Rhodesian Front's victory was actually a surprise.

 

[Dom Dom]

They would likely be still in good grace with there allies from the United State and United Kingdom as apartheid is already abolished by the time public consensus change in recharged to racial rights and segregation .

Maybe Namibia would still be a part of South Africa as without the apartheid system they would likely have political representation eventually with there own party representing Namibian interest , another blow to the ANC though that a bit of a stretch as I don't have

Economically South Africa would do fine in the most part as without those sanction being imposed and a segregated workforce there economy wouldn't collapse on itself ,white population would still hold at least a majority of the wealth but there significant more African having a share of the wealth than OTL South Africa.

​

 

[Titanium49]

Let's say that, through a series of PODs starting in the 1950s,

I'd say a POD in 1922 when the Rhodesian referendum votes for union with South Africa. This changes the Anglo/Boer balance and maybe the National Party never comes to power.

 

[Sardar]

It would be interesting to see if Jan Hofemyr survive past WW2 and his influence on politics.

 

[walmart]

If the ANC still comes to power. South Africa will be a Soviet friendly nation.

 

[Quintuplicate]

could they dismantle the apartheid state, at least gradually

The United Party stood for white superiority, as opposed to the National Party standing for white supremacy.

 

[marktaha]

A UP government would have been essentially Rhodesia without sanctions and with a sea coast in my view. A UP government coming to power in 1961 would have been greeted with international acclaim.

 

[PrinceofApathy]

The United Party stood for white superiority, as opposed to the National Party standing for white supremacy.

What's the difference?

 

[Clandango]

What's the difference?

The first is happy being at the top of the heap, the other insists on others being on the bottom. I don’t know the differences between those parties myself, but it reminds me of some alt history maps from like ten years ago (I think I saw them on deviantart or when scanning through the map threads, I don’t recall) where it mentioned Whites in the US in that world “knowing” they were superior, so not feeling a need to force other people down. Maybe we think of it as pride (and already owning much of the mines, ports, factories, etc in South Africa) rather than people going with the mudsill theory and feeling there always has to be a lot of people in poverty at the bottom in order for the others to live the high life. We kind of would see that in Brazil and the UK with their ‘servant problem’ when they didn’t have enough people who would work from dawn til dusk for pitiful wages, never talk back, never spend their money in such a way they have nicer clothes than their employer, and never dating anyone. I suppose American and South Africans having rules against non-Whites living in certain areas (especially men) would mean they certainly wouldn’t have them in their houses anyways. Any of you guys know if the United States of America and the Union of South Africa had large agencies for domestic help, had companies sending out the people, or if they had some other way for getting domestic labor? I feel somehow my post would be better in a thread about life in one of these areas, rather than the politics of it.

How long do we say t takes for people to get citizenship? Would Indians who already were living for years in South Africa by the time of apartheid falling get citizenship?

 

[Raferty]

The United Party stood for white superiority, as opposed to the National Party standing for white supremacy.

The National Party was actually quite divided on this - there were those who wanted to push for a complete separation of groups, while others favored the supremacy Baaskap model of trusteeship- Verwoerd favored the former, his immediate predecessors the latter, and after his death, the National Party's ideology was amorphous and driven more by circumstance than anything else.

The reason the Bantustan policy failed. beyond the obvious, is because they could never resolve this conflict - if they wanted it to work, they had to give substantially more territory to the homeland governments, and had to deny some of their biggest supporters access to cheap labour. But the rhetorical basis of their electoral support was entirely wrapped up in the Boer archetype of self reliance, and their policy on state owned industries and state led development, not to mention capital controls and proscribed assets, emulated this at the level of national policy, even as the realities of South Africa's economy and social structure made this kind of appeal untenable.

The United Party didn't really stand for much of anything - its rural and urban wings were almost completely different parties. The only unifying feature was a desire for better relations with Britain and opposition to the Afrikanerization of the state. Some UP members were fine with the Apartheid social structure but merely wanted to run it differently. Others were completely opposed and eventually formed the basis of the PFP and later the DP. Some changed their opinions one way or the other over time, and some were Cape or Natal separatists.

 

[Vinization]

The United Party didn't really stand for much of anything - its rural and urban wings were almost completely different parties. The only unifying feature was a desire for better relations with Britain and opposition to the Afrikanerization of the state. Some UP members were fine with the Apartheid social structure but merely wanted to run it differently. Others were completely opposed and eventually formed the basis of the PFP and later the DP. Some changed their opinions one way or the other over time, and some were Cape or Natal separatists.

What was Graaff himself like?

 

[marktaha]

Graaff talked of "white leadership with justice"- would have been limited black and other nonwhite representation,very likely votes for Coloureds at least.

 

[flippikat]

From a sporting angle, having South Africa avoid it's spell of isolation could have huge impacts on rugby union - maybe lead to professionalism, more yearly international competitions (especially competitions like Super Rugby & the southern hemisphere "Rugby Championship") & a world cup far earlier than OTL.

Cricket could also see some big changes sooner than OTL.

 

[Nick P]

The Royal Navy continues to use Simonstown Naval Base as the UK government doesn't feel pressure to quit SA in 1975. This means they can make use of the facilities there during the Falklands Conflict in 1982. Lots to play with there...
Being able to take the troops back to SA in a week and then fly them straight home would be a good party.

The South African Armed Forces may be more likely to buy British weaponry. This could include Type 22 frigates, Type 42 destroyers and Upholder submarines, Chieftain tanks, Tornado etc.

 

[marktaha]

D

From a sporting angle, having South Africa avoid it's spell of isolation could have huge impacts on rugby union - maybe lead to professionalism, more yearly international competitions (especially competitions like Super Rugby & the southern hemisphere "Rugby Championship") & a world cup far earlier than OTL.

Cricket could also see some big changes sooner than OTL.

D'Oliveira plays for them - they stay the best Teat team in the world.

 

[Simon]

The Royal Navy continues to use Simonstown Naval Base as the UK government doesn't feel pressure to quit South Africa in 1975. This means they can make use of the facilities there during the Falklands Conflict in 1982. Lots to play with there…

Being able to take the troops back to South Africa in a week and then fly them straight home would be a good party.

IIRC the distance from Cape Town to the Falkland Islands is pretty much the same as from Ascension Island to the Falkland Islands.

 

[Pelranius]

It's possible that for a while, this ATL could end up with a franchise that's majority black, but the majority of blacks still don't have the vote.

 

[Vinization]

It's possible that for a while, this ATL could end up with a franchise that's majority black, but the majority of blacks still don't have the vote.

Maybe, I suppose, but that will probably change almost immediately after that is achieved, if only because more nonwhite voters = fewer seats in the hands of the National Party = more potential for a reformist (not necessarily UP) majority in the legislature.

Of course, I'm only guessing.