Butterflying the execution of Louis XVI and his family is going to cause a lot of other butterflies in the short-term, as it was the act that exarcebated tensions and accelerated the declaration of war. Louis is definitely going to ask his brother-in-law to bail him out, and Austria is already concerned about French radicalism and expansionism. However, the UK and Russia just came from a war, so it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
So Evident a Danger: The Consequences of War between Britain, Prussia and Russia in 1791
- Thread starter Gwrtheyrn Annwn
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It seems Louis and the family are safe for now but with the country being in such alarmed mood, it won't last sadly...
That was a well written update, by which I mean I felt a genuine surge of irritation and a desire to sharpen a razor.
Depends on how it plays out. No Decleration means that everyone can assume he was kidnapped, at least for now.
The issue is, if he gets recaptured, or worse, gets to Royalists and then unleashes the Decleration.
Absolutely right, it was hinted at the end of the first chapter that Britain and Russia may well not get involved in a big war in France and this is exactly why. But as you say, Louis XVI's continued presence arguably makes a stronger case for Austrian intervention. How that will end is another matter entirely, and whether Louis XVI finds himself in a palace in France or in Vienna, as was discussed before, will probably not be his decision.
Safe for now indeed, now being the key word! Between the national panic that will surely ensue and the tendency of Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette to make the worst decisions, both in different ways, this will almost certainly not go well for here out.
As @Knightmare said below, it does depend how it plays out. A successful Flight to Montmedy does not immediately save him but does at least make a relatively obscure retirement, which Louis XVI would probably enjoy in all honesty, more likely perhaps than an execution.
Thank you..I think
And this is the aforementioned tendency to make the worst decisions! Although his allies/sympathises could perhaps still argue that even the Declaration was the product of kidnappers in this scenario but it will definitely make it much harder.
This war can only have one outcome: the Austrians get their asses kicked. Once that it becomes clear that Louis is going to be restored when the Austrians reach Paris, the French are going to implement the mass national conscription system that OTL won them the war and roll through the Austrian Netherlands in two years. I can only see the Austrians winning if they defeat the French Army when they are weak and demovilized to attempt to rush to Paris, but even then they are on their own and I doubt they have the logistical capacity to go that far. Maybe the King being alive motivates the counterrevolutionaries a bit more, but even then they won't be beating the treason allegations: their King is literally colliding with a foreign power.
Overall, I think Louis is going to end his days in a fancy palace in Vienna, crying in his memoirs that he wanted reforms but he got screwed over by the evil radicals.