Smallest possible successful C.S.A.?

The Admiral Hook

What is the smallest possible Confederacy that could, by a combination of good Generals, chance luck, and determination successfully secede from the Union?

And what are the effects of such a victory?
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
wolf_brother said:
Arguably OTL's Confederacy was too small.
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Not necessarily, not if it manages to piggyback off of US mistakes in the East a little better. It will never gain Kentucky, Missouri, or the place formerly known as Northwest Virginia again, but the OTL Confederacy *could* win the war. Such a state would be at best equivalent to Jiang Jieshi's Republic of China, but still.......
 
Basilisk

Basilisk

If there were other overwhelming issues in the country, it could just be South Carolina, I suppose. Not that it'd last long. Or even be a confederacy, technically.
 

DrJafJaf

The Everglades. The Confederates continually fall back instead of standing strong in Virginia, but the politicians refuse to give up. Eventually they're all the way in southern Florida where they start running a brutal guerrilla war. After so many deaths, the USA decides it doesn't care and just barricades them in there. The Confederates, ignoring all logic, decide to just make themselves the Republic of the Everglades, which causes Lincoln to giggle a bit. They can have the Everglades, who gives a damn.
 

Malta

DrJafJaf said:
The Everglades. The Confederates continually fall back instead of standing strong in Virginia, but the politicians refuse to give up. Eventually they're all the way in southern Florida where they start running a brutal guerrilla war. After so many deaths, the USA decides it doesn't care and just barricades them in there. The Confederates, ignoring all logic, decide to just make themselves the Republic of the Everglades, which causes Lincoln to giggle a bit. They can have the Everglades, who gives a damn.
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Will he be gigling when they send out their vicious Gator Janissaries that quickly re-conquer the Old Confederacy and march into D.C.???
 

jycee

Once could argue that a smaller confederacy is much more likely to gain independence. Say it is only the deep south (S.C. Mississippi Florida Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana), while the upper south and border states declare some sort of neutrality. The political maneuvering to prevent them from seceding or invading the states, is much more complicated than in OTL.

Furthermore the loss of this 6 states won't be seen as big a deal as the loss of 1/3 of the country. And there might be less incentive to act upon it.

It won't be a peaceful secession by any means. Some fighting will occur. At the very least so the governing administration of the US can keep face.
 

The Admiral Hook

jycee said:
Once could argue that a smaller confederacy is much more likely to gain independence. Say it is only the deep south (S.C. Mississippi Florida Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana), while the upper south and border states declare some sort of neutrality. The political maneuvering to prevent them from seceding or invading the states, is much more complicated than in OTL.

Furthermore the loss of this 6 states won't be seen as big a deal as the loss of 1/3 of the country. And there might be less incentive to act upon it.

It won't be a peaceful secession by any means. Some fighting will occur. At the very least so the governing administration of the US can keep face.
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I wonder what the repercussions of this might be... I've never heard of a "Deep South Wins" TL...
 

NothingNow

Banned
DrJafJaf said:
The Everglades. The Confederates continually fall back instead of standing strong in Virginia, but the politicians refuse to give up. Eventually they're all the way in southern Florida where they start running a brutal guerrilla war. After so many deaths, the USA decides it doesn't care and just barricades them in there. The Confederates, ignoring all logic, decide to just make themselves the Republic of the Everglades, which causes Lincoln to giggle a bit. They can have the Everglades, who gives a damn.
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The Seminoles, Alligators, Snakes and Cattle would kill them all. No, I'm not joking. The Cattle will fucking slaughter them. Cracker Cattle are that mean.
 

Perkeo

Banned
wolf_brother said:
Arguably OTL's Confederacy was too small.
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That is the logical conclusion if you assume the more states the better the chances. But I'm not quite that certain that certain that it's that simple:
As Clausewitz said that the will to fight a war depends on the cost per gain. So a smaller CSA reduces the cost to maintain the union, but that also reduces the gain. If secession only involves only a relatively small number of states, it becomes easier for the union to simply accept it.

EDIT: Therefore, the success of the war of secession doesn't only depend on the size of the CSA, but its topography: The Confederates need a line of defense that is a lot easier to hold than to take. No more, no less.
 
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Cook

Cook

Banned
Perkeo said:
EDIT: Therefore, the success of the war of secession doesn't only depend on the size of the CSA, but its topography: The Confederates need a line of defense that is a lot easier to hold than to take. No more, no less.
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The weaponry of the time guaranteed that any defensive position was easier to hold than to take. The losses incurred by the Union exceeded those of the Confederacy in almost all campaigns.
 

Solomaxwell6

Banned
Perkeo said:
As Clausewitz said that the will to fight a war depends on the cost per gain. So a smaller CSA reduces the cost to maintain the union, but that also reduces the gain. If secession only involves only a relatively small number of states, it becomes easier for the union to simply accept it.
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I don't know about that. Have the upper South stay with the Union, and you've just made the war a hell of a lot easier. Virginia was where the Confederate's main industry was, it's where their artillery was produced, largest population of the southern states. The original 7 would make a pretty easy war. Cutting the south down even further (say, only SC secedes), and it'd be even easier. The cost of an invasion of South Carolina would be next to nothing. The gain would be great, even if only to stop a bad precedent of secession.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Its an interesting question since secession did not IRREVOCABLY mean war. If there had been different leadership in Washington (and this is alternate history after all) then the South could have been let go. In this case, a smaller number of states seceding might actually work better, since their secession would seem to be less of a threat to the integrity of the whole USA. You could thus have a South-Eastern core

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Solomaxwell6

Banned
Grey Wolf said:
Its an interesting question since secession did not IRREVOCABLY mean war. If there had been different leadership in Washington (and this is alternate history after all) then the South could have been let go. In this case, a smaller number of states seceding might actually work better, since their secession would seem to be less of a threat to the integrity of the whole USA. You could thus have a South-Eastern core

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Click to expand...

If there was no war, wouldn't it actually be a likely cause of a smaller CS rather than an effect? Historically, the three largest Confederate states (and Arkansas) only seceded AFTER the war started. Don't have it turn hot, and leaders in the upper south will have less propaganda material.

The leadership of the Confederacy is a big factor, too. Remember, the Union didn't fire the first shots. Regardless of whether you think they had just cause or not, it was Beauregard firing on Fort Sumter that turned a very tense situation into an outright war. Have a more realistic leadership that realizes they're fucked in any war, and they can play a waiting game. The longer the South survives without being attacked, the less likely the Civil War would happen. Eventually, even if the US refuses to recognize them, the CSA would get de facto independence and international recognition.
 

Fiver

If the Confederacy leaves peacefully, then they'd have the original 7 states. This would require a CSA President that does not fire on Ft Sumter and is willing to offer trade concessions in return for foreign recognition. It also requires a US president who does not feel he has a duty to keep the Union united. This will require different Presidents for both sides than in OTL.

The other option is outlasting the Union. This would need a CSA President who cares more about his general's competence than their friendship, merit more than seniority, and is willing to offer trade concessions in return for foreign recognition. That requires a different CSA President than in OTL. It also requires a peace candidate to win the 1864 US elections. There weren't any in OTL, though President McClellan might bungle things bad enough the Union eventually decides the war cannot be won.

Best case in peace by exhaustion is the CSA loses West Virginia and Arkansas. More likely, they also lose Tennessee and Lousiana. Smallest likely surviving Confederacy consists of SE Mississippi (1/2 or less of the prewar state), Florida, Alabama (minus the northern part), Georgia (minus the northern part) South Carolina, North Carolina (minus the Alleghenies), and Viriginia (minus the Alleghenies, the pro-Union southwest, and the Union occupied northern part).
 
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