Sino-Soviet War: Effects on Vietnam?

Gosing

An interesting thought that popped into my head today.

So, first off, the scenario: the Sino-Soviet border confict of 1969 spirals into full-blown war. The Chinese fight hard, but in the end the Soviets just blow them to smithereens.

But, the million-dollar question is: what effects would this have on the Vietnam War? Who would the North Vietnamese support? Would the South have been in a better condition?
 

DuQuense

The Chinese fight hard, but in the end the Soviets just blow them to smithereens.
Click to expand...
Only if it goes Nuke.

with the PRC and the URSS occupied the US can hit NVeitnam harder, and perhaps force a longer lasting peace on the two sides.
 
Workable Goblin

Workable Goblin

Gosing said:
An interesting thought that popped into my head today.

So, first off, the scenario: the Sino-Soviet border confict of 1969 spirals into full-blown war. The Chinese fight hard, but in the end the Soviets just blow them to smithereens.

But, the million-dollar question is: what effects would this have on the Vietnam War? Who would the North Vietnamese support? Would the South have been in a better condition?
Click to expand...

The Vietnamese were more Soviet-aligned than Chinese-friendly. Given their then-current issues, however, they may turn Chinese for a bit. Or maybe they end up being a second front. In the latter case, there could be...issues.

Assuming the US doesn't get involved, then South Vietnam is not likely to become involved. However, the probably smaller flow of resources into Haiphong and across the border might help the US/South Vietnamese forces out, at least for a while.
 

Blue Max

China and the Soviet Union Fighting can only favor the United States in terms of projection of forces, although historically China switched to being Pro-US with Nixon's trip to China.

I'm not sure where the lines are for a war between China and the Soviet Union. A full blown war could well be a stalemate as Central Asia's roads are horrible (Thus the whole Xinjiang/Kazahk border would be worthless). The Soviet Union would want to move into Manchuria, but their supply lines are horrible as well.

Assuming this war didn't go nuclear, the USA would still have a free hand--it could well decide simply to grab Hanoi and try to build a new government. Still not a winning proposition, but likely to work better than trying to hold a hopeless border.

If the War goes nuclear, China is toast and the Soviet Union is out a few cities. The Cold war ends as the Soviet Union can no longer afford to hold Eastern Europe with its armed forces while rebuilding its devastated cities. China, though, is utterly screwed. Due to geography, Vietnam would probably get too high a dose of rad as well.
 
Aranfan

Aranfan

If the war goes nuclear, Communism will be pretty thoroughly discredited as well. Provided the US isn't pulled into the exchange.
 

jackalope

lounge60 said:
Nixon can invade the Noth Vietnam with China consent?
Click to expand...


I have thought of that one, and dismissed it in the traditional sense.
While only my own judgement, it goes like this:

OTL Nixon apparently scrupulously kept the two issues of reapproachment
and the Vietnam War separate. The reasons for that are numerous,
in part because Mao was dying and who knew what would happen after
that (no one, as a wildcard).

A better approach would be to public and say we made mistakes but
North Vietnam was worse and we must invade (temporarily, I guess
is really stretching it). Any more than that is indeed provoking a
situation. Probably with what we know now there would be mostly
grumbling, but what if Lin Biao some how did take over and turned PRC
around in a technocrat/USSR friendly state? Deep Kimchi!

As you know, OTL has Lin dying in a power struggle with Mao, crashing
and fried near the Monglolian border. It was not an assured issue, til
it happened, 9.1971.

As Nixon and others recognized, Vietnam War had turned into a backwater
by his presidency. (Not so in 1965, with Indonesia in flames, etc.) An
invasion however 'temporary' would overwhelmingly best be as polite,
contrite, and humble as possible. In a complete success, of course the
yahoos would whoop it up like so many slim pickens riding a h bomb
down from the sky (Dr. Strangeglove). These would have to be publicly
disavowed, and even Nixons Quaker humble pacifist background put up
as a front "have we done right, etc"to mute the obvious backlash from
predictable and not so predictable sources.

So I think. This is stepping into the danger zone, at least for a while,
if it had happened.
 
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