Shut Up Arthur! WWI without American Entry

[Lucius Verus]

"Are you sure ambassador?"
“Mexico’s hatred for America is well-founded and old, send the proposal” Arthur Zimmermann.

Atlantic Theatre 1917

POD 1. FEB 1917:
While suffering from a bout of indigestion, Zimmerman mutters a quick no and rushes towards the lavatory when questioned about the "Zimmerman Telegram" bolstering the popular belief is that the telegram is an outrageous English forgery. A British minister is given a berating as it backfires on them. American war enthusiasm is dimmed slightly but still overwhelming pre-Entente as weekly headlines of American children, women, and men lost at sea against unrestricted submarine warfare. Merchant men are being armed against the unchanged unrestricted submarine warfare while diplomatic relations are severed and Admiral Henning von Holtzendorff seems to be vindicated on his prediction of American neutrality. Having lost 800,000 shipping tons in April the British started organizing and implementing a convoy system along with more hydrophones, crude depth charges, and armed merchant vessels reducing the tonnage towards a more manageable 500,000 tons a month. (all IOTL except Zimmerman)

Contrary to Admiral Henning von Holzendorff's predictions the British refuse to give up, preferring to tighten rations and prioritize food import and war industries at the expense of consumer goods. Since 1914 the British food efforts are centered around voluntary substitution; "Pork and Beans" cans are relabeled "Beans" due to the lack of feedstock, greater incentives as a free market delivers great profits towards the countryside and a 20% increase in mechanized and fertilized production, and immense purchases overseas to the point of dominating entire economies such as Argentina and setting up for post-war recessions.(all IOTL)

While current losses exceed Entente shipping production, the British, Dominions, and French started the war with over half the world's shipping at 23 million tons and at the current rate it would take 4 years to cut into Britain's basic tonnage needs around 12 million (assuming the British refuse to buy or commission new ships). (all IOTL)

There is a brief scare in France as imports seemed insufficient to prevent hunger and the French Minister of Commerce Etienne Clémentel in control of French maritime transport, goes to London in Autumn 1917 to seek relief; this will lead to the Allied Maritime Transport Council pooling shipping resources and implementing efficiencies in ship wait times and port congestion. Rations on sugar, coffee, and other luxury imports begin in France; a surprising feat that the French government was able to maintain the standard of living for so long into the war.(all IOTL)

Despite the rudimentary tactics involved with the majority of U-boats lost to ramming, underwater nets, mines, and Q-ships(disguised armed merchants) at an average exchange rate of 55,000 merchant tons and 105 sailors lost to the Entente (can be drawn from worldwide pool) per submarine (quite the technical construct) and 35 submariners (must be technical recruits trained at twice the length of infantry) attrition isn't on the side of the German Empire as British production and ship purchases from America keeps losses manageable. A side effect of the USW is the disruption of Dutch and Danish trade that are also sunk; both governments of which are less able and much less willing to trade covertly with Germany. (all IOTL)

At sea no efforts are made to exclude passenger ships nor ships heading westward without Entente-imports, to the German military American's trade and financing of the Entente made it a belligerent, a non-factor as Germany would win the war quickly before any American impact, and that the American army was passive and weak. This cavalier outlook prompts objections from the German civilian authorities comparing it to the same promises of quick victory in 1914, 1915, 1916 and again with the same predictions of weak and small British and Belgian armies in 1914; both of which were considered but ultimately dismissed as defeatism. (all IOTL)

In response to the loss of American lives and the willful disregard for international norms the United States breaks off diplomatic relations with Germany as tensions heighten. While the US ambassador in Germany was packing to leave he receives instructions to demand the release of American sailors held as POWs from the captured British steamer Yarrowdale. Demanding to know whether a state of war existed between America and Germany given the treatment of American civilians as POWs the German foreign ministry gives a half-hearted excuse of German sailors being interned in America; something that is promptly disproven as telegrapths are sent from German sailors at liberty in neutral America. (all IOTL)

With the Americans reluctantly released in April this episode is seen as just another German act of aggression and Wilson calls for a vote to enter the war. While there isn't a lack of will to go to war among senators and congressmen there was a considerable variety in their motivations; these ranged from a combination of self-defence, the tripling of lucrative Entente trade since 1914 and the 99% drop in German trade, the desire for concessions to join the war just like Italy and Romania, expanding the American sphere of influence, and general humanitarianism against Central-Powers war crimes. Wilson was one of the few that wanted to go to war purely out of idealism which combined with his disregard for congress and inability to take criticism created a volatile combination. (all IOTL)

POD 2. When the vote is presented many senators and congressmen voice their concerns, concerns that are interpreted as personal criticism by an increasingly impatient Wilson who lashes out as those against "a just war, my war". The poor choice of words causes the vote to fail as the session devolves into mud-slinging match and with pro-war congressmen unable to stomach supporting "Wilson's war". Another vote is called within a month, narrowly failing again this time due to the lack of details in "Wilson's war" beyond idealistic pledges. While cut-off from world telegraph networks news of the votes eventually makes it back to Germany, which in combination with a seemingly unfaltering Britain gives civilian authorities enough influence to end USW for a second time.(bringing out the worst traits of IOTL's Wilson ITTL, its hard to see America staying out with USW.)

At sea 1917 sees the first 151-class cruiser submarine Deutscland performs two block-aid runs buying American zinc, silver, copper for dyes, precious stones, and mail (as per IOTL in Baltimore). Treated as celebrities for their astonishing journey, the crew are received well and an agreement was signed with the North German Lloyd line to build cruiser submarines in America. While huge propaganda successes, the meagre 700 tons of cargo and slow round-trip is marginal compared to the 5,200 tons of fats Germany will import through other means that year; an amount that works out to 77 grams of fat a year per German whereas the average healthy human requires 44-77 grams a day. Needing a win, the go ahead is given to construct more and bigger trade submarines on both sides of the Atlantic. (just as IOTL, except the submarines ordered in America will not be cancelled)

 

[Lucius Verus]

Eastern Front Early 1917

The provisional government(PG), under the belief that their military is revitalized with "a new democratic spirit" just because they replaced the head and plans continue for a July offensive in ignorance of all the seething troubles of the Tsarist government. With the exception of the Bolsheviks the PG votes to re-affirm their commitment to the war for both patriotism, anti-German hatred, and to gain enough legitimacy to deal with internal troubles later. (all IOTL)

Kerensky tours the frontlines giving speeches in front of hand-picked crowds that are enthusiastic to end the war, but by going home instead of fighting Germany. Blind to the sheer war-wariness and more concerned about legality and precedence of popular demands of land reform, serfdom, and food the provisional government decides to hold an assembly in September. Meanwhile the peasants and soldiers of Russia, who care little for war aims, invented Slavic identity, or constitutional legitimacy voted with their feet by walking home and seizing noble lands; the majority of times the land records are burned and the manor's occupants firmly told to get out or else. Meanwhile the cities grow more restless as the new government seems just as bad as the Tsar in getting food. Hundreds of communities setup their own councils (Soviets) often in alliance with the leftist Social Revolutionaries (SRs). Despite the PG's claims, a dual power structure appears with Soviets, SRs, and Bolsheviks from bottom up and the PG from top down. (all IOTL)

Come July, the Kerensky Offensive begins.

 

[Lucius Verus]

Western Front 1917

Decided during the Chantilly Conferences in 1916, Franco-British preparations continue for the Neville offensives. Despite reservations from Petain the overwhelming majority of French civilians, leadership, and soldiers want to reclaim French land; their discontent limited to the inefficiency of the previous offensives as opposed to the goal of retaking French land. The British will launch another offensive in Arras in support, though cautioned the French to phrase it differently from "another offensive to win the war on the Western Front" to their allies.(all IOTL)

Due to poor operational secrecy and overambitious plans the Neville offensive fails and Neville is "promoted" to African theater command and out of power, yet the old horse just hangs around headquarters for weeks in awkwardly scapegoating and consoling himself. Despite an one to two exchange rate the German army has lost 180,000 men, an entire year's worth of conscripts in a month, in return the morale of the French army plummets with the perceived hopelessness of the slaughter. (all IOTL)

While there is a brief antiwar revolt, French soldiers can simply write to their representative and many of them do in contrast to the military dictatorship in Germany. Petain takes over, gives the men better conditions, more rest, and sets the army on a defensive posture for at least the rest of the year.(all IOTL)

With the French on a defensive posture, Douglas Haig pushes for more Commonwealth offensives across Arras, Messines, Ypres, and along the Aisne trading another 400,000 in causalities. While the British and commonwealth are able to deepen their draft the German army has already mobilized all men aged 19-39 at the start of the war and the army of 1917 steadily shrinks under the dual drain of causalities and the need to demobilize men for the ongoing food crisis. The Entente application of creeping barrages, surprise (sometimes), and massed tanks, APCs and trucks is crude but improves steadily through a hurricane of blood and steel forcing the strained German economy to divert efforts towards anti-tank weaponry.(all IOTL)

Having already recruited all the conscript classes, the French start implementing mass-colonial conscription; while opposed by colonial big whites and will definitely complicate metropole-colonial relations post-war it was seen as the lesser of two evils. Unspoken among the French is the fear of the British taking the leading role in the war and peace. (all IOTL, except greater in intensity)

While many colonials will sign up for promises of wages, autonomy, and privileges a full quarter are patriotic settlers of European origin. Unlike the British dominions, French authority and loyalty in the colonies is weaker with drafts inciting evasion, riots, and localized revolts in the fringes of North-Africa. Accelerating the recruit efforts started in 1916 the year will yield over 180,000 African troops with another 200,000 in 1918. Unwilling to be outdone by the British, French prime minister Clemenceau's offhanded comment of hiring 200,000 Ethiopian soldiers is put into motion. In China, where the French had always been aloof the foreign ministry takes up the Kuomintang's offer of 100,000 Chinese soldiers for the French to feed, equip, and train over the objections of the Japanese and British. For the Japanese, the Chinese contribution calls into question Japanese design on German holdings in China and the "21 demands" signed in secret in 1915. Meanwhile the Kuomintang (KMT) and British both see this as strengthen the former at the expense of foreign interests in the long-term, barely able to feed and arm itself the KMT is eager to gain access to European training and knowledge and makes it clear that there is more manpower available than the 100,000 offered. (All IOTL, except the Ethiopian proposal is taken seriously and that the Entente uses Chinese soldiers in addition to IOTL's 100,000 labourers)

With the snowfall coming, the British offensives cease by December 7th having pushed the defended line German back a few kilometers along the front and even broke through at Aisne- a breakthrough left unexploited due to a lack of follow-up forces and unusual high-command caution. As winter sets in, both sides will distill lessons to learn and plan for 1918. (All IOTL)

 

[Lucius Verus]

Eastern Front Late 1917:

As the Kerensky Offensive begins many soldiers simply refuse to attack, those that do are the most reliable of the remaining Tsarist-now Provisional Government's forces. Directed by the famous Aleksei Brusilov the attack is directed at the weaker Austrian forces, unknown to the Russians the Austrian army had been mostly integrated into the German army and the quality was uniform across the Eastern front. The attack is allowed to run out of steam before the German army counter attacks dealing a devastating blow to Russian morale and Kerensky's legitimacy.

Despite the failure, Kerensky's delusions deepen as he moves into the Tsar's Winter Palace and then proceed to alienate the Cossacks; the last militarily powerful pro-provisional force. Sensing weakness factions within the Bolsheviks call for a coup to dispense with the dual governing arrangement between the Provisional Government and the Soviets. On the day of the coup, nothing happens as the majority of Russians are tired, hungry, and apathetic not bothering to die for any side. Lenin is validated in his caution while the increasingly delusional Kerensky interprets this both a lack of support for the Soviets and a massive amount of support for him. Over the course of June, July, and September Kerensky tries to call an assembly for legitimacy only to storm off when the Provisional Government assembly doesn't shut up and obey opting instead to appoint his own assembly. Living in the Tsar's palace, coopting the Tsar's military, ruling through the Tsar's bureaucracy, and becoming increasingly authoritarian an entrepreneurial Trotsky seizes the moment to publicly offer Kerensky the former Tsar's crown and dress uniform. (all IOTL except for Trotsky)

With the approaching German armies hot on the heels of the failed Kerensky Offensive tensions rise in Petrograd and the Bolsheviks tries to seize power again this time successfully. Once in power they proclaim the famous "land, peace, self-determination, and food" while working furiously to centralize power and crush any opposition on the streets. Given that Bolshevik power is limited to parts of Moscow and Petrograd and an alliance with the SRs that run the majority of Soviets there was little else they could've done. Most remaining soldiers take this as permission to go home, looting along the way to sustain themselves while peasants ratchet up the land appropriation. (all IOTL)

In contrast to their proclamations, the Bolsheviks immediately setup the Cheka; a secret police accountable to no one, start confiscating food from the countryside to sustain their urban powerbase, shutting down all political opposition, and disputing claims of minority independence; ie arguing that while the Ukrainians should be free, the Ukranian Rada isn't representative, and that there should be an rigged election later. (all IOTL)

As the Germans tire of Bolshevik stalling at Brest-Litovsk and Operation Faustschlag (Fist Punch) is given the green light, striking hard the German encounter… nothing. Nothing expect the token defensive positions and come within a hundred miles of Leningrad. The Bolshevik levee en mass is ignored and the minority of Bolsheviks led by Lenin sues for peace under harsh terms; trusting that soon revolution will come to Germany and the other imperialist powers so that they can reverse the losses.(all IOTL)

Across the empire, with the breakdown of central authority many old grudges are coming to the surface across class, religious, and ethnic lines. In Finland the militant aristocratic right strikes first; hoping to crush the socialists and gain independence, meanwhile the majority reds and socialists are caught flat-footed as they also want independence, but peacefully. There are many more instances but that's a story for another time.(all IOTL)

To many peasants the Bolsheviks were worse than the Tsar, stealing food, beating the reluctant, all with an excess spurred by revolutionary zeal and the gluttony of hungry men. Adding to that the Germans try to extract what food there's left that they can get their hands on in Poland and Ukraine; the resulting 100,000 tons is a drop in the bucket for Germany, let alone Austria or Bulgarian. In the best case 100,000 tons is 20 days worth of food for Germany alone in a country short more than half its daily requirements at the end of three years of withering. The decision is made to prioritize the German military at the expense of the civilians and allies. (all IOTL)

 

[Wendell]

Subbed.

 

[Lucius Verus]

Central Powers 1917: End of Year Map

source: https://omniatlas.com/maps/europe/19171107/

Germany

Despite having withdrawn to the Hindenburg line in February the Western Front continues to bleed soldiers, material, and land. While news of Russian collapse is encouraging those few in the know are privy to the meagre amount extracted from the worn roads and chaos that is the east. With a cold winter the harvest is projected to be half of the minimum requirements with the average German having already lost 40 pounds since 1914.

While pre-war Germany was nearly self-sufficient in foodstuffs having only imported 10%-20% of its needs this was only achieved with the heavy application of imported and manufactured fertilizers. Under the perception of an imminent victory fertilizer production was cut for explosives adding to the loss of imports, men and horses were drafted from the countryside, breeding herds were slaughtered in 1914, 1915, 1916 and again in 1917. However, unlike the early-war years there was no more notches left to tighten on the German people's belt, the short-term decisions are calling in their debts.

Uncoordinated hundreds of authorities and organizations at the neighbourhood, city, state, and Reich level attempt to intervene and ensure a steady food supply to little success. While such interventions are popular legislation can only distribute the limited amount food, not make more of it and such heavy-handed legislation are yielding serious side-effects.

The focus on the feeding the war is prioritizing officers, then soldiers, then war-industry workers, then police officers is depriving the urban poor and rural homeless of even the basic nutrition. While the rural vagabonds are able to grow their own and steal the urban poor are left with little recourse. Even those that do have enough to eat are forced to go to greater extents, with wives and mothers waiting overnight at the bread queues to the complaints of their managers. Strikes of workers working overtime for less food, riots of women ransacking stores rumored to be hiding food, and thousands of women forced into prostitution to feed themselves in Berlin.

Price-controls, meant to ensure access are distorting the economy as farmers hide portions of their harvest to sell on the lucrative black market while meat becomes available only on the black market. The great annual slaughters of livestock; while useful in alleviating short-term shortages crashed the price of meat during their slaughter, inflated the price beyond the means of average Germans afterwards, then weakened the harvest the year after as farms lie untilled without draft animals. Substitutions, the most noticeable of which is that of wheat bread with a dark rye contributed to the feeling of deterioration and loss of confidence in the authorities.

While the legislations failed in distributing food and expanding the food supply, its questionable if the Entente authorities can do better in the same conditions. Nonetheless the Entente aren't under blockade and can important food and fertilizer from 4/5ths of the world at the expense of debt and American loans totaling 10 million dollars a day-nearly half of the daily German budget.

Faced with hopeless starvation, the sweet allure of scapegoating grows in volume from 1915 blaming minorities, turning neighbours against each other, Bavarians against Rhinelanders, city-dwellers against farmers, hungry soldiers against well-fed officers. Increasingly among the military POWs, women, children, and anyone who isn't working for the war-industries or in uniform is seen as traitors "stealing" food from the deserving.

For some the whispers of hunger comes is sung in the promise of communist revolution. The SPD, the largest and most organized socialist party pre-war had donned the mantle of patriotism over their pacifist roots in 1914; an action which had caused the split of the radical leftists. Despite all the beatings and arrests patriotism could not satisfy hunger and lethargy and both troops in the East as well as the people on the streets were starting to have their doubts.

By year's end most Germans, while supportive of market controls found the government to be “in control of nothing” and even to have sanctioned profiteering, suggesting that people who did not follow the rules should be put into prison, while those who did follow the law belonged “in the nuthouse". Only a hundred thousand or so die this winter with estimates of another quarter million in 1918.

Resource-wise shortages had affected war-industries since mid-1917 with steadily declines across every category from rifles to shells, tanks to airplanes, and horses and trucks. While better off than her Allies, Germany was still in danger of being overwhelmed by a tidal wave of Entente men and material.

Austrian-Hungarian Empire:

In 1917 Conrad von Hötzendorf-one of the chief architects of the war had already destroyed the Imperial Army several times and drained the empire of manpower through repeated indiscriminate drafting. In march 1917, after so much wasted lives Conrad von Hötzendorf is finally dismissed and given the title of count; he will spend the rest of his life denying all wrongdoing and blaming anyone and everyone else-especially those that could help him in the imperial court and German Empire. Despite the stunning success of Caporetto where light infantry (and only light infantry for a lack of horse-transport) destroyed two Italian armies and pushed up to the Piave river the push had faltered without food and the transfer of 11 French/British divisions.

In contrast to the more generalized German market the internal Austrian-Hungarianmarket was relatively specialized, leading to worsening distribution and oddities such as Austria being self-sufficient in dairy, but severely lacking in meat and grain. As transport broke down the Empire's agricultural specialization has left the Austrian core starving; while it made sense pre-war to produce only perishables around Vienna and import durable grain from Hungary this was no longer the case. Unlike Germany, the Austrian-Hungarian empire was relatively self-sufficient in fertilizer but this lead to its own set of problems as the lack of import variety led to soil-depletion.

In the midst of all this turmoil, old agitations for democracy, equality, national self-determination, class-wars, and were reaching a boil. Riots and strikes had already broken out in the cold and hungry winters of 1916. More frightening still was the adoption of the Russian slogan "All power to the Soviets!" by the moderate democrats, not that Vienna bothered to make the distinction.

In response the military high command that had stumbled into this war decided to impose "military discipline" to stop the unrest to little effect, to blame the various ethnicities they commanded for the failures of command, and come September blame the returning prisoners of war from Russia as cowards and traitors sending them to military re-education camps full of resentful and well trained soldiers drawn from the Empire's minorities.

Despite all of this, order still prevailed and the army obeyed while their stomachs rumbled louder every day. Meanwhile non-German and Hungarian POWs in Entente camps flocked towards the foreign legions with the promise of freeing their homelands.

Bulgaria

Starting from a feudal-rural economy the tiny nation of 4 million has mobilized an amazing quarter of its population. This is especially impressive given that it had lost its most fertile land in 1912 during the second Balkan War and had not recovered its herds or material stocks. Unable to feed itself, nor arm itself with heavy weaponry, nor or push into the mountains of the Macedonian front the cries for help grow ever louder towards Berlin and the heavens falling on deaf ears.

Ottoman Empire

In 1914 despite the majority of the country opposing the war, being unready for war, having just suffered the loss of the economic heartland in 1912, and undergoing civil and sectarian strife Enver Pasha said "fuck it I'm gonna burn it all down and a new and improved Ottoman Empire will rise from the ashes". Three years into the war and the Pasha is now reaping the fruits of his labor as the empire slides closer towards oblivion around a renewed nationalism in the Turkish core. [1]

In no small part thanks to Pasha's amazing incompetence entire armies had died to the elements and starvation before firing a shot. Poorly developed the empire's infrastructure was crumbling, its fields like fallow with farmers and draft animals drafted, and central authority is breaking down under the strain.

The Berlin-Baghdad railway, with nearly 300 miles of gaps between sections is unable to properly supply Mesopotamian forces and is instead employed in the ethnic cleansing of the Armenians. This is seen by the empire's subjects as the government turning against itself.

Against the better equipped, trained, and fed Indian and British armies the Empire is steadily losing ground in Palestine and Mesopotamia. With the loss of Baghdad in March British oil supplies in Iraq were considered safe and plans were made to secure Baghdad and transfer troops west to Palestine. In Palestine continuous fighting from October to December sees the British push North from the Sinai leaving behind huge pumping plants and pipelines to supply the forces in the desert. Respecting secret agreements to split Syria to France and Palestine to Britain a French contingent would be scraped together to join the Egyptian Expeditionary Force. In response to the half-a-million causalities on the Western front, the Egyptian Expeditionary Force would start transferring out "white" troops west in exchange for fresh Indian recruits to the displeasure of the Indian Office. The front is predicted to remain peaceful for the rest of the year. [2]

When news of the Russian collapse arrive Constantinople was ecstatic at the prospect of one less front, happier still after hearing of the Bolsheviks' promise of a peace with no annexations and no indemnities. A ceasefire was signed in early December which along with the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk returning the historic Ottoman lands of Kars, Ardahan and Batum became a cause for celebration. The mood was only slightly dampened over competing German-Ottoman claims to Baku oil and the prospect of feeding more war-torn border regions.

[1] All IOTL with more colorful phrasing for Enver Pasha who ITTL is applying for the role of a generic "we must destroy to improve villain"
[2] Mostly IOTL except with the transfers of white divisions west; which IOTL was not total with some remaining. ITTL the intent is to draw upon all of them.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

While suffering from a bout of indigestion, Zimmerman mutters a quick no and rushes towards the lavatory when questioned about the "Zimmerman Telegram" bolstering the popular belief is that the telegram is an outrageous English forgery.

The British had ironclad proof that the ZT was real.

When the war started, Britain severed all the telegraph cables from Germany to the Americas. The US government had a cable which ran to to the US Embassy in Denmark. As a courtesy, the US permitted Germany to send diplomatic messages (i.e. to and from its embassies) on that cable, but only if sent unciphered. That cable passed through a relay station at Land's End in Britain, and therefore was monitored by British intelligence. (The US never noticed this.)

The ZT was transmitted to the German embassy in the US for relay to the German embassy in Mexico, using that US government cable. It was sent in cipher, the Germans having persuaded the US State Department to let this one ciphered message go through. Ther British read the message at the relay station; they had broken the German cipher used, and so read the message.

When they presented the ZT to President Wilson, they also presented the ciphertext and demonstrated the decryption. The ciphertext was on file in the State Department's telegraph office, so the US knew it was genuine. (The British had a cover story about stealing the ciphertext in Mexico, so they didn't have to reveal they were tapping the US cable.)

 

[Garrison]

"Are you sure ambassador?"
“Mexico’s hatred for America is well-founded and old, send the proposal” Arthur Zimmermann.

At sea 1917 sees the first 151-class cruiser submarine Deutscland performs two block-aid runs buying American zinc, silver, copper for dyes, precious stones, and mail (as per IOTL in Baltimore). Treated as celebrities for their astonishing journey, the crew are received well and an agreement was signed with the North German Lloyd line to build cruiser submarines in America. While huge propaganda successes, the meagre 700 tons of cargo and slow round-trip is marginal compared to the 5,200 tons of fats Germany will import through other means that year; an amount that works out to 77 grams of fat a year per German whereas the average healthy human requires 44-77 grams a day. Needing a win, the go ahead is given to construct more and bigger trade submarines on both sides of the Atlantic. (just as IOTL, except the submarines ordered in America will not be cancelled)

And here you move from the highly unlikely to the outright implausible. As @Anarch King of Dipsodes has pointed out the British had ample proof the telegram was real, so whatever might be said in public the US government knows full well its real. Even if there's no support for a declaration of war at this time there is no way the US government is going to allow those items barred in 1917 being allowed here. Also I think you overestimate the practicality of cargo subs given that even by WWII most submarines had to spend the bulk of their time on the surface. If there are more of them they become bigger targets for the Royal Navy, who might I suppose discover the merits of carriers in the ASW role sooner.

 

[Lucius Verus]

The British had ironclad proof that the ZT was real.

When the war started, Britain severed all the telegraph cables from Germany to the Americas. The US government had a cable which ran to to the US Embassy in Denmark. As a courtesy, the US permitted Germany to send diplomatic messages (i.e. to and from its embassies) on that cable, but only if sent unciphered. That cable passed through a relay station at Land's End in Britain, and therefore was monitored by British intelligence. (The US never noticed this.)

The ZT was transmitted to the German embassy in the US for relay to the German embassy in Mexico, using that US government cable. It was sent in cipher, the Germans having persuaded the US State Department to let this one ciphered message go through. Ther British read the message at the relay station; they had broken the German cipher used, and so read the message.

When they presented the ZT to President Wilson, they also presented the ciphertext and demonstrated the decryption. The ciphertext was on file in the State Department's telegraph office, so the US knew it was genuine. (The British had a cover story about stealing the ciphertext in Mexico, so they didn't have to reveal they were tapping the US cable.)

They had proof yes, but they played it close to their chest just like IOTL and most Americans-especially the Irish and Germans believed it a British forgery. "Stole it from the Mexican consultates and didn't alter it? Sounds suspicious." Here Zimmerman doesn't confirm it at a public conference or in the Reichstag.

Shrug anyways it's not the important POD, America was going to war regardless with USW, hence why there's a second pod of Wilson screwing up the votes twice and giving the Reichstag time to chicken out. Zimmerman just didn't open his mouth long enough for Wilson to trip, and Wilson tripped just long enough for the Reichstag to chicken out.

 

[Lucius Verus]

And here you move from the highly unlikely to the outright implausible. As @Anarch King of Dipsodes has pointed out the British had ample proof the telegram was real, so whatever might be said in public the US government knows full well its real. Even if there's no support for a declaration of war at this time there is no way the US government is going to allow those items barred in 1917 being allowed here.

Yet it did happen IOTL, and American companies traded anyways during 1915s period of USW just as IOTL. Short of US government sanctions, which the US gov was really hesitant to do till war IOTL there were enough sympathizers and apolitical businesses in all of America. Sure the British can blacklist companies like 1916 IOTL but do they really want to piss off the Americans again when I get to the post about the British Treasury's secret?

Also I think you overestimate the practicality of cargo subs given that even by WWII most submarines had to spend the bulk of their time on the surface. If there are more of them they become bigger targets for the Royal Navy, who might I suppose discover the merits of carriers in the ASW role sooner.

Reading comprehension is your friend, the rest of the paragraph says that it's a token amount compared to trans-shipments which itself was a 1/300th of what's need for fats alone. That they were built just like IOTL as propaganda successes, except IOTL the company in America cancelled with war.

"While huge propaganda successes, the meagre 700 tons of cargo and slow round-trip is marginal compared to the 5,200 tons of fats Germany will import through other means that year; an amount that works out to 77 grams of fat a year per German whereas the average healthy human requires 44-77 grams a day. Needing a win, the go ahead is given to construct more and bigger trade submarines on both sides of the Atlantic"

As for anti sub developments the same posts notes the attrition rate and the improving if nascent anti-sub abilities of the British ( in regions around Britain-not long range). They might succeed, that is after they secure the waters around British isles first. It doesn't stop the Germans from building them ITTL. And I agree, I'd love to see carriers proven earlier just as I'd love to see British armor doctrine from a longer WW1 as well as Hindy and Ludy try to blame others in a longer war where they're clearly at fault.

The point of this is to see what happens without America. Its in the title "Shut Up Arthur! WWI without American Entry".

 

[Garrison]

Reading comprehension is your friend, the rest of the paragraph says that it's a token amount compared to transshipments which itself was a 1/300th of what's need for fats alone. That they were built just like IOTL as propaganda successes, except IOTL the company in America cancelled with war.

And the US government is not going to allow any expansion of it just because a few newspapers reject the authenticity of the Zimmerman telegram, which further assumes that Wilson or the British wouldn't make the cover story public to shore up support moves for a declaration of war. They know its real, they know exactly what Germany offered Mexico and that in doing so they violated the Monroe Doctrine. Whatever the public pronouncements the US government is going to tighten the screws on the Germans by doing their best to deny them access to US markets and shipyards and by finding additional ways to aid the Entente. Also you seem to be changing the entire personality of Zimmerman and indeed the men he worked for in that you have him suddenly ducking questions instead of arrogantly confirming the veracity of the telegram. If he was that smart it wouldn't have been sent in the first place.

 

[Lucius Verus]

And the US government is not going to allow any expansion of it just because a few newspapers reject the authenticity of the Zimmerman telegram, which further assumes that Wilson or the British wouldn't make the cover story public to shore up support moves for a declaration of war. They know its real, they know exactly what Germany offered Mexico and that in doing so they violated the Monroe Doctrine. Whatever the public pronouncements the US government is going to tighten the screws on the Germans by doing their best to deny them access to US markets and shipyards and by finding additional ways to aid the Entente. Also you seem to be changing the entire personality of Zimmerman and indeed the men he worked for in that you have him suddenly ducking questions instead of arrogantly confirming the veracity of the telegram. If he was that smart it wouldn't have been sent in the first place.

Shrug, the man's sick-regardless of his personality. I'm can edit the post to show how terribly sick

As for America; yes Wilson knew and only Wilson, foreign sec Hull, and a few others knew- not the wider public or even congress since the British wanted to keep the method of acquisition secret. Wilson then goes to a vote for war IOTL and ITTL and I've shown exactly how Wilson screws it up-with OTL's thin-skinned hero-complex. This is the same man that IOTL ignored congress' will and screwed up America's ratification of the Versailles Treaty and role in League of Nations. There's enough pro-war congressmen to go to war ITTL and IOTL, except ITTL they wanted details and concessions-not to play the hero for the glorification of Wilson to which Wilson responded to as he did with all criticism IOTL; poorly.

They nearly got a war, had they kept at it and looked past hero-complex-in-chief they would've, except the Germans chickened out and canceled USW.

 

[NoMommsen]

... Also you seem to be changing the entire personality of Zimmerman ...

Interesting ... May I ask where from you've your intimate knowledge of Zimmermanns personality?

Would love to look into.

 

[Garrison]

Interesting ... May I ask where from you've your intimate knowledge of Zimmermanns personality?

Would love to look into.

How about the public record of his actions? We are talking about a man who literally confessed to this massive diplomatic blunder without a hint of contrition, a man who thought it was a good idea to begin with.

Shrug, the man's sick-regardless of his personality. I'm can edit the post to show how terribly sick

As for America; yes Wilson knew and only Wilson, foreign sec Hull, and a few others knew- not the wider public or even congress since the British wanted to keep the method of acquisition secret. Wilson then goes to a vote for war IOTL and ITTL and I've shown exactly how Wilson screws it up-with OTL's thin-skinned hero-complex. This is the same man that IOTL ignored congress' will and screwed up America's ratification of the Versailles Treaty and role in League of Nations. There's enough pro-war congressmen to go to war ITTL and IOTL, except ITTL they wanted details and concessions-not to play the hero for the glorification of Wilson to which Wilson responded to as he did with all criticism IOTL; poorly.

They nearly got a war, had they kept at it and looked past hero-complex-in-chief they would've, except the Germans chickened out and canceled USW.

And they kept it secret because they had no need to make it public. Do you honestly believe they would choose to keep it secret if it means the US doesn't join the war? Wilson at least almost certainly would just to win the argument.

 

[Lucius Verus]

How about the public record of his actions? We are talking about a man who literally confessed to this massive diplomatic blunder without a hint of contrition, a man who thought it was a good idea to begin with.

So your conjecture then? Having read on Zimmermann I can tell you that he thought it a harmless hypothetical , that "Zimmermann hoped that Americans would understand that the idea was that Germany would not fund Mexico's war with the United States unless the Americans joined World War I."

Meyer, Michael C. (1966). "The Mexican-German Conspiracy of 1915". The Americas. 23 (1): 76–89. doi:10.2307/980141. JSTOR 980141.

Even with the constant scandals on twitter and the 24 hour news cycle nowadays, people still say stupid things in the spur of the moment

And they kept it secret because they had no need to make it public. Do you honestly believe they would choose to keep it secret if it means the US doesn't join the war? Wilson at least almost certainly would just to win the argument.

IOTL the British held onto the telegram until they found a good excuse for it, just as IOTL; that sure sounds like they value their secrecy and continued ability to read German messages alot. ITTL there has been two votes for war- both of which the British can smack their foreheads and blame on Wilson while keeping their secrets. After the second vote, USW stopped and yes that was the key reason; America doesn't go to war every-time a nation threats war; IOTL during the period even when Poncho Villa said death to all Americans, shot Americans on a Mexican train, and invaded American soil they did a limited intervention but didn't declare war on Mexico- it took the USW constantly killing Americans that was the major reason.

The British didn't plan on USW stopping, they couldn't whereas Wilson didn't care much for congress- much to his frustration; all this continued until it was too late for war and USW stopped. Could I've written on more Zimmerman sure, but it didn't seem important since the biggest impact was Wilson's relation with congress; something he'd thought he was going to get help from until it was too late.

 

[kham_coc]

They had proof yes, but they played it close to their chest just like IOTL and most Americans-especially the Irish and Germans believed it a British forgery. "Stole it from the Mexican consultates and didn't alter it? Sounds suspicious." Here Zimmerman doesn't confirm it at a public conference or in the Reichstag.

Shrug anyways it's not the important POD, America was going to war regardless with USW, hence why there's a second pod of Wilson screwing up the votes twice and giving the Reichstag time to chicken out. Zimmerman just didn't open his mouth long enough for Wilson to trip, and Wilson tripped just long enough for the Reichstag to chicken out.

It's also worth noting that the proof is admitting they are intercepting US diplomatic comms, since the Germans already are on record as denying it, they could just say that's what they were fishing for, the UK to admit it's spying on the US.

 

[Garrison]

So your conjecture then? Having read on Zimmermann I can tell you that he thought it a harmless conjecture, that "Zimmermann hoped that Americans would understand that the idea was that Germany would not fund Mexico's war with the United States unless the Americans joined World War I."

Meyer, Michael C. (1966). "The Mexican-German Conspiracy of 1915". The Americas. 23 (1): 76–89. doi:10.2307/980141. JSTOR 980141.


IOTL the British held onto the telegram until they found a good excuse for it, just as IOTL; that sure sounds like they value their secrecy and continued ability to read German messages alot. ITTL there has been two votes for war- both of which the British can smack their foreheads and blame on Wilson while keeping their secrets. After the second vote, USW stopped and yes that was the key reason; America doesn't go to war every-time a nation threats war; IOTL during the period even when Poncho villa invaded American soil they did a limited intervention but didn't declare war on Mexico- it took the USW killing Americans that was the major reason.

The British didn't plan on USW stopping, they couldn't whereas Wilson didn't care much for congress- much to his frustration; all this continued until it was too late for war and USW stopped.

Having USW stopped doesn't actually make the POD more plausible. Honestly do you really think the British would value keeping the secret over getting the US into the war? And that assumes that Wilson respects that confidentiality of the cover tory when faced with opposition to his plans? To me it seems in character that he would do something like that. Honestly probably more plausible to come up with a way to block the telegram being sent in the first place. Then you can get all your other changes and pretty much keep the US governments attitude as it was before the telegram was sent.

 

[Garrison]

It's also worth noting that the proof is admitting they are intercepting US diplomatic comms, since the Germans already are on record as denying it, they could just say that's what they were fishing for, the UK to admit it's spying on the US.

Except the British had a cover story for precisely that purpose. Knowing the telegram existed the British lifted the copy from the Embassy in Mexico and created a paper trail that made it it pretty much ironclad.

 

[Lucius Verus]

Having USW stopped doesn't actually make the POD more plausible. Honestly do you really think the British would value keeping the secret over getting the US into the war? And that assumes that Wilson respects that confidentiality of the cover tory when faced with opposition to his plans? To me it seems in character that he would do something like that. Honestly probably more plausible to come up with a way to block the telegram being sent in the first place. Then you can get all your other changes and pretty much keep the US governments attitude as it was before the telegram was sent.

Well see my post above, I've given you the mentality of all characters involved, the relative importance of the telegram to USW, the context of American reactions to a similar event with Mexico, and the timeline of events; nothing implausible like you claimed; go ahead make a thread on the "inevitability of American DOW post Zimmerman without public acknowledgement from the Germans" and see. You're free to believe as you'd like but I'm not going to address the same doubts again and again. If you have new points feel free to do the research and present them.

 

[jlckansas]

There is enough anti war sentiment in the US at this time, that if they are able to have proof the UK is spying on us and trying to influence our entry into the war, then it would be plausible for them to drag out the DOW enough for Wilson to mess it up like it is ITTL. Remember this was not a near unanimous declaration like against Japan in WW 2 and if it appeared like they were being steered into the DOW, the US might not pass it. As much as Wilson wanted to intervene at this time he did not have the means or authority like FDR did leading up to WW2 with Europe. The US still had a large isolationist feeling toward Europe and European activities that made them look askance on the happenings there even without WW 1.