Seven Days to the River Rhine: the Third World War - a TL

[Monk78]

I think the OP said that it'll end with a full nuclear exchange, which no one wins.

Can we please not ? It’s too predictable
Just tactical nukes
Each side survives 12 detonations and then leaders on both sides agree to a truce

 

[Lalli]

Good TL!

I hope this isn't one more of these scenarios where the USSR loses because it's lame and inneficient and "good always triumphs over evil". A Soviet victory or a draw would be much more interesting.

It is already hinted that this is going to end to destruction of known civilisation. And frankly it is hard to keep WW3 on-going without nuclear holocaust when both sides have thousands of nucelar weapons.

Can we please not ? It’s too predictable
Just tactical nukes
Each side survives 12 detonations and then leaders on both sides agree to a truce

It is just hard to keep things unescalated when first nukes are launched. Things almost inevitable would go from hands.

 

[farmerted555]

It is just hard to keep things unescalated when first nukes are launched. Things almost inevitable would go from hands.

I think there was a mention of surviving Soviet documents, so "full-scale nuclear exchange" might not mean what we all think it means.

 

[David Floyd]

I think there was a mention of surviving Soviet documents, so "full-scale nuclear exchange" might not mean what we all think it means.

In 1983, a full scale exchange would mean that Peru, Botswana, and McMurdo Station would be the superpowers in 1984.

 

[Lalli]

In 1983, a full scale exchange would mean that Peru, Botswana, and McMurdo Station would be the superpowers in 1984.

Hardly even local great powers. But Australia would be now top dog. Perhaps Brazil too.

 

[panpiotr]

Hardly even local great powers. But Australia would be now top dog. Perhaps Brazil too.

Unfortunately both sides of full nuclear war will not allow it. They will not allow new countries to emerge completely unscratched as both USSR and USA will be crippled after nuclear exchange. From my understanding, it will be simply getting rid of potential new global rivals after post-WW3 world. So even if countries like Brasil, South Africa or India ,which have potential to be next global leaders after WW3, wont take active part of WW3 will be a target for nuclear strike, as both USA and USSR will come to conclusion - if we are going to be nuked and completely destroyed, then everyone will share the same fate as us. They cannot simply allow for the others to come out on top without a scratch after WW3 and dictate the new world order.

 

[Lalli]

Unfortunately both sides of full nuclear war will not allow it. They will not allow new countries to emerge completely unscratched as both USSR and USA will be crippled after nuclear exchange. From my understanding, it will be simply getting rid of potential new global rivals after post-WW3 world. So even if countries like Brasil, South Africa or India ,which have potential to be next global leaders after WW3, wont take active part of WW3 will be a target for nuclear strike, as both USA and USSR will come to conclusion - if we are going to be nuked and completely destroyed, then everyone will share the same fate as us. They cannot simply allow for the others to come out on top without a scratch after WW3 and dictate the new world order.

They would use most of their nuclear weapons to level down each others. There wouldn't be lot of left anymore. Yes, places like even Australia, Brazil, New Zealand and some African countries would get too nukes but they hardly are wiped from map.

 

[Parma]

great suspense.
Just a queastion, when we see the news today, we know that sovjet design tanks are driving bombs due to their auto loader sytem and their APC's are sort of tin can death traps giving no proection at all to the infantery driving in them even for 2983 standards. Further the whole type of command of the sovjet union and their slave states is based on terror. Futher the Sovjet block and their armed forces had an endemic record of corruption. This must have an effect on their performance. Futher th west european soldiers are fighting for theexistence while the sovjet block forces are close to slaves forced to figth. The succes of Israel against their arab counter parts in the numerous wars proved this overlooked quality

 

[Lalli]

great suspense.
Just a queastion, when we see the news today, we know that sovjet design tanks are driving bombs due to their auto loader sytem and their APC's are sort of tin can death traps giving no proection at all to the infantery driving in them even for 2983 standards. Further the whole type of command of the sovjet union and their slave states is based on terror. Futher the Sovjet block and their armed forces had an endemic record of corruption. This must have an effect on their performance. Futher th west european soldiers are fighting for theexistence while the sovjet block forces are close to slaves forced to figth. The succes of Israel against their arab counter parts in the numerous wars proved this overlooked quality

There is gap between Soviet and NATO technology but it is not such huge as it is in 2023. And whilst corruption was big problem already in 1980's it wasn't such rampant as during post-Soviet years. But at least going to Rhein in one week is really optimistic and probably impossible even for much more advanced army.

 

[Lafayette_]

Unfortunately both sides of full nuclear war will not allow it. They will not allow new countries to emerge completely unscratched as both USSR and USA will be crippled after nuclear exchange. From my understanding, it will be simply getting rid of potential new global rivals after post-WW3 world. So even if countries like Brasil, South Africa or India ,which have potential to be next global leaders after WW3, wont take active part of WW3 will be a target for nuclear strike, as both USA and USSR will come to conclusion - if we are going to be nuked and completely destroyed, then everyone will share the same fate as us. They cannot simply allow for the others to come out on top without a scratch after WW3 and dictate the new world order.

Is there any literature that backs this? Did the Soviets have any plans to strike the southern hemisphere during the time of Able Archer? I know the whole thing is mad in the first place, but this seems extremely far fetched.

 

[pjmidd]

Like all these scenarios, this is not remotely realistic. Soviet SOP had chemical weapons and even tac nukes neutralising key NATO targets in the first wave. The entire idea of a conventional war was nonsense that Politian's spouted to calm the masses but no one military believed would happen. Its why Tom Clancy in Red Storm had to show the East Germans somehow forcing the Soviets not to use WMD's to have a novel rather than a short story.
The other trope that's being followed is the quality of the Soviet kit, when we got hands on it after the wall fell, it was clear it had been biged up ( Western arms manufactures having a vested interest to make it seem moth threatening ). Books and films might show an almost unstoppable juggernaut, the reality was a paper tiger. MIG 29's were not the equal of F-16's especially at long range for example and the MIG 25 was to put it mildly crude.

 

[panpiotr]

Is there any literature that backs this? Did the Soviets have any plans to strike the southern hemisphere during the time of Able Archer? I know the whole thing is mad in the first place, but this seems extremely far fetched.

Of this I am not sure, but its my assumption based on logical conclusion of geopolitics - establishments in both countries must be aware of the fact if both USSR and US and Europe are completely destroyed in nuclear exhange, other countries if left more or less unscratched from the whole debacle, for example China or India - these countries will dictate the post-war order supported by hard power, while USSR, USA and Europe are nothing more than nuclear wasteland. In such case there will be no balance of power at all between post war northern hemisphere and rest of the world if only the nothern hemishpere was nuked.

 

[Bougnas]

There is gap between Soviet and NATO technology but it is not such huge as it is in 2023. And whilst corruption was big problem already in 1980's it wasn't such rampant as during post-Soviet years. But at least going to Rhein in one week is really optimistic and probably impossible even for much more advanced army.

7 days to the Rhine, if I recall, was actually a Polish plan about what they expected a Soviet invasion of the West to look like and what Poland was expected to do for them. But IIRC it doesn't actually follow Soviet plans nor beliefs. For all we know the Soviets themselves deemed 7 days unrealistic.

Is there any literature that backs this? Did the Soviets have any plans to strike the southern hemisphere during the time of Able Archer? I know the whole thing is mad in the first place, but this seems extremely far fetched.

No, the Soviets did not see Able Archer as the sign of an imminent invasion.

 

[chankljp]

As someone that fist joined AH.com in the first place because of the Able Archer TL, I am so delighted to read a new TL of a similar scenario and format. Will be following this thread, and really looking forward to the next update!

 

[John Farson]

Welp, those selling shoulder pads and leather chaps will be making a killing in the very near future of this TL...

 

[freivolk]

And the war begins...

Chapter III: Day One, November 10th 1983.​

Tensions rose as the West noticed the tremendous upsurge of Soviet and Warsaw Pact military activity. Western intelligence agencies such as the CIA and MI6 certainly hadn’t missed the bursts in encrypted communications from Moscow to the Group of Soviet Forces and the Southern Group of Forces, stationed in East Germany and Hungary respectively. Reagan, Thatcher and other Western leaders were informed of these troop movements early in the morning of Wednesday November 9th. Not only that, but intelligence came in concerning a heightened state of readiness of the Soviet Union’s Strategic Missile Forces.

President Ronald Reagan summoned Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin to meet him in the Oval Office at 08:00 AM sharp. But he simply regurgitated the lie he had been told by Moscow to repeat to the US President if he inquired to Soviet intentions: the large scale troop movements and burst in communications were merely a large scale military drill, the Soviet equivalent to NATO’s Able Archer. The increased readiness of the country’s rocket forces was merely part of a highly realistic nuclear drill (in reality it was a precaution, should NATO respond with a strike, enabling the Soviets to respond immediately upon detecting it). Dobrynin tried to turn the tables by asking what Able Archer was all about, voicing his suspicions of Western aggression, accusations which an angry Reagan categorically denied. He dismissed Dobrynin, who returned to the embassy after a meeting that had barely lasted an hour. Once there he informed the Kremlin that he wasn’t sure whether or not Reagan believed him. Moscow was not dissuaded from its course of action.

Reagan was already on the phone to assemble his Secretary of State George Shultz, Secretary of Defence Caspar Weinberger, National Security Advisor Robert McFarlane and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Situation Room while Dobrynin had barely left the White House. They had all arrived by ten o’clock in the morning and Reagan informed them of the meeting he’d just had with the Soviet Ambassador and wanted to know if his gut instinct that Dobrynin had been “bullshitting” him was right. Margaret Thatcher, Helmut Kohl, François Mitterand and other Western leaders all had similar meetings that morning.

Around noon the readiness level of the United States Armed Forces was raised from DEFCON 4 to DEFCON 3. The head of Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) was General Bernard W. Rogers, whose official function was Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). Besides that Rogers was also the Commander in Chief of United States European Command. Needless to say, after Reagan’s DEFCON 3 order had been issued, corresponding orders from SACEUR followed. Early that Wednesday afternoon NATO forces in West Germany moved to positions along the anticipated axes of advance of a potential Soviet attack.

Reagan used the Moscow-Washington hotline the entire day trying to get a straight answer from Grishin (the hotline was a Teletype system, not a phone line as is widely and incorrectly believed). Grishin gave the same response that Dobrynin had given the President that morning. However, after the morning meeting with his Secretary of State, Secretary of Defence, National Security Advisor and the Joint Chiefs Reagan was well aware that there was a high probability, though not a certainty, that there was much more going on than a military exercise.

In the meantime, the general public stayed calm for now and went about its business as they believed that surely their leaders would do anything to prevent a war. People went to work, bought their regular groceries and spent their Wednesday evening watching TV as usual, not expecting they’d wake up to news of a war. They hadn’t gone to war in 1962: the bombers hadn’t taken to the skies and the missiles had stayed in their silos. Few believed it’d be any different this time around because they had no reason to think otherwise. After the first shots were fired, this sense of normalcy would be replaced by an unnerving surreal atmosphere. Surely neither side would press the big red button and end civilization, right? The world would find out soon enough.

In the meantime, the Gang of Eight left Moscow and the Kremlin behind, going to the Sharapovo installation, about 80 kilometres south of Moscow, designed for continuity of government. They debated about continuing or cancelling the upcoming operation, which had been unofficially named “Seven Days to the River Rhine” after the top secret simulation it’d been based on. Grishin had been in contact with Reagan all day and their decision to continue or cancel hinged on their judgment about Reagan’s credibility. He seemed sincere in his desire to keep the peace, but Gromyko reminded them that this was coming from the same man who’d given the “Evil Empire” speech.

The Third World War began at 05:00 AM on Thursday November 10th 1983 when the “Seven Days to the River Rhine” plan was initiated (Reagan was asleep at the time, as it was 11:00 PM Washington Time, but would be woken up within half an hour). All along the inner German border between West Germany and East Germany D-20 152 mm gun-howitzers and BM-21 Grad self-propelled multiple 122 mm rocket launchers opened fire with devastating consequences. Tens of thousands of them were firing in fact and that caused a consistent tremor, which shattered windows and caused roof panes to come down. Initially German civilians living nearby believed there was an earthquake. That quickly changed when they saw the explosions.

In the meantime, Soviet Air Force Su-24 tactical bombers and Tu-22 supersonic medium bombers hit airfields, surface-to-air missile sites, important military bases, NATO special weapons depots, fuel and supply depots, other miscellaneous military installations deemed critical, suspected nuclear weapons storages and of course the known Pershing II sites with heavy duty conventional ordinance. Specially targeted also were command, control and communications (C3) installations, but NATO managed to pass on alerts nonetheless: the Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered the readiness of all US Armed Forces to DEFCON 2 as soon as the news reached them. At the Pershing II sites, the surrounding area was littered with wreckage from rockets and transporter-erector-launchers as well as burning rocket fuel.

MiG-23 fighters engaged Western F-16 Fighting Falcon multirole jetfighters, F-4 Phantom II interceptors, Mirage III interceptors and Panavia Tornado multirole fighters. The MiG-23 was the mainstay of the Soviet Air Force’s fighter arm, but there were other types that joined them and proved much more challenging. In the hands of a capable fighter pilot, a MiG-29 was a challenge to any F-16 pilot. Furthermore, there was the MiG-25, which was one of the fastest supersonic aircraft ever to enter service: it had an operational top speed of Mach 2.8 and an absolute maximum of Mach 3.2. All these aircraft engaged each other over Germany in the early morning hours of Thursday November 10th 1983 in what was fast becoming the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. The intensity of the aerial fighting was such that air forces from both sides barely got around to new bombing missions and ground support.

The main Soviet Army breakthrough took place at the strategically vital Fulda Gap. This was an area between the Hessen-Thuringian border and Frankfurt am Main, which contained two corridors of lowlands through which Warsaw Pact armour could drive to gain crossings on the Rhine in a surprise attack. The 1st Guards Tank Army took the northern corridor through the Fulda Gap and the 6th Guards Army took the southern one. They faced the US V Corps and VII Corps respectively who fought back tooth and nail, attempting to turn the Fulda Gap into a lethal bottleneck with combined aerial, artillery and armoured counterattacks. Reinforcements in the shape of the Bundeswehr III Corps were underway.

Further reinforcements from the West German II Corps had been requested to contain the Soviet offensive through the Fulda Gap, but they couldn’t come: they faced Soviet-Czechoslovak forces advancing toward Nuremberg. The Belgians sent an armoured brigade to Frankfurt to help out instead. Meanwhile, despite Austrian neutrality the Southern Group of Forces stationed in Hungary attacked Austria in order to outflank the II Corps and that in turn forced the West German II Corps to send reinforcements there. The Austrian Army was quite small after all. All of this meant the Bundeswehr’s II Corp’s forces were completely tied up in Bavaria and Austria.

After 24 hours of fighting the breakthrough at the Fulda Gap finally happened after a serious escalation. No orders had been issued barring the use of chemical weapons, so Zaitsev ordered their use after briefly conferring with Moscow. That resulted in the largest attack ever in the history of chemical warfare, using mustard gas, phosgene and the nerve agent sarin. The Soviet 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Guards Army, backed up by East German divisions, broke through after that using their quantitative superiority in tanks and artillery. US forces concentrated to block an advance towards Rhein-Main Air Base.

Further north the Soviet 2nd Guards Army and the 3rd Shock Army broke through and crossed the river Elbe, threatening the major West German port city of Hamburg which was barely 50 kilometres from the inner German border. The 2nd Guards Army actually advanced northwest to Hamburg, while the 3rd Shock Army covered their flank and advanced in a westward direction towards the Weser River, another hurdle towards the goal of the Rhine. Facing the 2nd Guards Army was the Dutch I Corps which fought heroically against a numerically superior adversary with the assistance of West German, British and Danish units. The 3rd Shock Army had to fight its way through the West German I Corps, British I Corps and elements of the Belgian I Corps. To overcome enemy resistance, which was much fiercer than expected, the 20th Guards Army arrived at the front to reinforce both the 2nd Guards and the 3rd Shock Armies. As a result, NATO’s front in northern Germany was forced into a retreat on the first day of the war.

The Soviet breakthroughs near Hamburg and through the Fulda Gap prompted commanders there to request permission to use tactical nuclear weapons as they saw fit. The Soviet Army’s conventional superiority, in tanks and artillery in particular, meant that in all likelihood NATO wouldn’t be able to stop them before the Rhine. Reagan discussed this with Weinberger and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Vessey. The last thing Reagan wanted was to be the one who initiated a nuclear apocalypse as he had emphasized the dangers of nuclear weapons in the past, but the matter wasn’t just up to him. Thatcher and Mitterand could approve of the use of tactical nuclear weapons every minute that the situation on the West German front worsened. Besides that, the Soviets had already opened the can of worms of weapons of mass destruction themselves by using chemical weapons at the Fulda Gap. This required a response so they wouldn’t do that again.

In the meantime, the various branches of the US government dispersed to make sure “continuity of government” would happen, if necessary, during that first day of World War III. President Reagan, Secretary of Defence Weinberger and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John William Vessey Jr. were evacuated to the Cheyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado to act as a “War Cabinet”. Vice President George H.W. Bush, Secretary of State Shultz and the remainder of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were evacuated to the Raven Rock Mountain Complex in Pennsylvania to continue the war should Reagan no longer be able to for whatever reason. The remainder of the cabinet and Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill – next in line for the Presidency should Reagan and Bush both be killed – evacuated to the Mount Weather Emergency Operations Centre in Virginia. Simultaneously, American Senators and House of Representatives delegates flocked toward The Greenbrier luxury resort in the Allegheny Mountains near White Sulphur Springs in West Virginia within hours after the war had begun. The massive bunker there codenamed “Project Greek Island” was to serve as an emergency shelter for the United States Congress. Even if the executive branch was entirely wiped out, then the legislative branch would still exist.

In the meantime, there was frantic diplomatic activity that day and the days that followed. The Peruvian Secretary-General of the United Nations Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, Pope John Paul II, Prime Minister of India Indira Gandhi, Chinese Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping and other world leaders all offered to mediate. The Soviet demands still consisted of a removal of the Pershing II missiles, a neutral demilitarized Germany and removal of all foreign troops from the country: this would effectively make Germany a buffer zone between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

These demands were anathema to Western leaders because they feared a neutral Germany without any ability to defend itself would be influenced by the Soviets. West German Chancellor Kohl himself wasn’t interested either, as German reunification under these terms would limit Germany’s sovereign right to join whatever alliances and supranational organizations it wished. Moreover, Germany would be dependent on other countries mutually guaranteeing its neutrality. The West considered these terms, except perhaps a compromise about the Pershing IIs, unreasonable. Given that the Soviets weren’t willing to compromise either, the war continued.

By the end of day one of operations, Soviet commanders patted themselves on the back because everything appeared to be going according to plan and Moscow was optimistic. Their armoured columns had advanced to within spitting distance of Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main. The plan for the nightly hours between midnight and sunrise on November 11th involved the 1st Guards Tank and 6th Guards Army performing a pincer movement. The tips of the Soviet pincer should converge just west of Frankfurt, encircling the city and Rhein-Main Air Base along with it. This was to be carried out the next day, or the day thereafter at the latest. After that their wildly optimistic expectation was that they’d reach the Rhine within 48 hours, but like Napoleon had once said: “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy. No plan survives the first shot”.

It´s a bit weird, that the II. GE Korps is called for support of the Fulda Gape. It was to far away for that.

 

[Onkel Willie]

Like all these scenarios, this is not remotely realistic. Soviet SOP had chemical weapons and even tac nukes neutralising key NATO targets in the first wave. The entire idea of a conventional war was nonsense that Politian's spouted to calm the masses but no one military believed would happen. Its why Tom Clancy in Red Storm had to show the East Germans somehow forcing the Soviets not to use WMD's to have a novel rather than a short story.

Standard Operating Procedure implies the possibility of deviating to a different operating procedure. The TL delves into the motivations for the Soviet leadership to take this course of action.

The other trope that's being followed is the quality of the Soviet kit, when we got hands on it after the wall fell, it was clear it had been biged up ( Western arms manufactures having a vested interest to make it seem moth threatening ). Books and films might show an almost unstoppable juggernaut, the reality was a paper tiger. MIG 29's were not the equal of F-16's especially at long range for example and the MIG 25 was to put it mildly crude.

As I understand it the MiG-29 had an intense heads-down approach to operating the cockpit (resolved in newer models) which reduced situational awareness and made it more difficult for the pilot to harness the plane's full capabilities. It also had a rather limited range due to little fuel reserves. And it required intensive training to be able to fly it, hence the mixed performance in foreign use. Other than that I've been given to understand the MiG-29 could go up against contemporaries like the F-16 and F-18.

It´s a bit weird, that the II. GE Korps is called for support of the Fulda Gape. It was to far away for that.

I used this map:

It shows West German II Corps as adjacent to US VII Corps.

 

[freivolk]

7 days to the Rhine, if I recall, was actually a Polish plan about what they expected a Soviet invasion of the West to look like and what Poland was expected to do for them. But IIRC it doesn't actually follow Soviet plans nor beliefs. For all we know the Soviets themselves deemed 7 days unrealistic.

No, the Soviets did not see Able Archer as the sign of an imminent invasion.

Still the Soviets demanded such war plans from their Allies.
Here is an example from the 5. GDR Army for 1983.

 

[freivolk]

Standard Operating Procedure implies the possibility of deviating to a different operating procedure. The TL delves into the motivations for the Soviet leadership to take this course of action.



As I understand it the MiG-29 had an intense heads-down approach to operating the cockpit (resolved in newer models) which reduced situational awareness and made it more difficult for the pilot to harness the plane's full capabilities. It also had a rather limited range due to little fuel reserves. And it required intensive training to be able to fly it, hence the mixed performance in foreign use. Other than that I've been given to understand the MiG-29 could go up against contemporaries like the F-16 and F-18.



I used this map:

It shows West German II Corps as adjacent to US VII Corps.

Yes, exactly like my map. But the Fulda Gap is in the area of US V Corps.

 

[Reymet_2]

known civilisation will end

Will it? Africa, South America, possibly Australia and India will remain intact...