I assume you mean the french Channel fleet.
How fast might it been reinforced with what units?
Since most of the french heavies were concentrated in Med (since 1912) or even further away regarding esp. the more heavy cruisers.
Second Franco Prussian ( German ) war 1914
- Thread starter Monk78
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How fast might it been reinforced with what units?
Since most of the french heavies were concentrated in Med (since 1912) or even further away regarding esp. the more heavy cruisers.
A Germany that's only at war with France probably won't, the risk isn't worth the reward.
I think a bigger concern is French raids in the North Sea running back behind the Channel and the British forbidding pursuit causing the Germans to cry foul.
Can German minefields, coastal artillery and predreadnoughts stop such raids ?
Very probably. Also a German occupation of the Channel coast would be anathema.
Probably. There would also be light forces like destroyers and torpedo boats.
Just because the alliance system is dead why would Germany no still go through Belgium?
Either way Germany came close to knocking out France when France had the backing of GB/UK and Germany had to worry about Russia. In a world were it is just France vs Germany even not violating Belgium Germany is ultimately going to kick Frances butt.
Either way Germany came close to knocking out France when France had the backing of GB/UK and Germany had to worry about Russia. In a world were it is just France vs Germany even not violating Belgium Germany is ultimately going to kick Frances butt.
I think it depends a bit on how the war occurs. If France decides to attack Germany to get A-L back, France has the problem. If Germany decides to attack France (maybe Russia's in chaos) then Germany has the problem.
Most things Germany needed could come in neutral flagged ships, Nitrates from Chile, Food from Argentina, various products from USA (and just rail from still neutral Russia).
Germany could probably launch a heavily escorted convoy to the Thames weekly of German shipping, and hence German shipping could use British waters out the northern coast of Scotland if they really needed to go out to the high seas, then picking up the Canadian coast on the other side.
So there wouldn't be much practical target of French raiding and most German ports are inland a bit and hard to reach (same issues as OTL WW1).
The French navy should focus on control of the Med and the Middle North Atlantic. Their big advantage is geography with basing in Brest and Casablanca and Dakar, they can control the middle Atlantic loosely. I just don't see a lot of naval action potential, except off the coast of Kamerun and Togo OR if the German East Asia squadron gets aggressive against French Pacific islands.
Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
IOTL the British had strongly hinted they were to look after France's North Sea, Channel & Atlantic coasts, allowing France to transfer heavy units to the Med. Without that "promise" the French are free to deploy their naval units as they see fit; however it is a double-edged sword as France may have to consider (even if OP states no other powers involved) a possible war against Italian or Austro-Hungarian naval forces.
I bet they would; the Germans are likely going to be focused more on the military advantages of doing so rather than the potential political drawbacks...
Also, intercepting British-flagged vessels trading with France could probably be done safely; just turning back any British or neutral vessels rather than taking them as prizes or impounding them. Definitely isn't going to be too effective, though; but it'll still constrict the flow of supplies at least somewhat.
The point of going through Belgium is to risk the fallout in order to knock out France ASAP so they could pivot and turn their attention to Russia. Without Russia involved going through belgium would not be a risk.
Germany has the manpower and industrial capacity for a slow war of attrition against France if it comes to that. The statistics are heavily in the German's favor. They may only need a little bit of luck to win the war early, whereas France would need an Act of God to beat Germany at all.
The problem for the French is, what does controlling the Med, a minor theatre of conflict at best, achieve you? They'll need to do something if only for public opinion reasons and they're badly outmatched.
Nitrates will of course, be absolutely vital. If (as I postulated previously) the Franco-German war starts a little later than the historical Great War, then the Haber-Bosch process may be better placed.
Yep, hence the earlier reference to the French Fleet in the Channel. Would calling it the Northern fleet avoid confusion?
When the British and the French came to an agreement pre-war that the British would cover the Channel while the French took point in the Med, the French stripped forces from the Northern bases to move to the Med. Without that assurance, then there is a much larger threat in the North, and those forces are likely not redeployed.
The main job of the French battle fleet in the Med at the outbreak of war was to protect the transfer of troops from Algeria to Mainland France from interference from the CP. once that is complete, if Austria and Italy are not in the war, then the MN can focus on Goeben while still moving to reinforce the North. They will need to maintain a fleet in the Med to guard against Austrian entry, but probably not as large of one as they did to face the Austrians IOTL.
... made in 1912 together with some deliberations about the 'common' staff talks strongly reaffirming the Entente cordial substantially esp. in military matters ... things of foreign affairs generally would have looked veery different as it would hint also to a very different position and foreign politics of the United Kingdom in such a timeline already before 1912 (reducing the value of the Entente cordial considerably for whatever reasons of PoD).
However, one could also argue:
regardless how good or - in this case compared to OTL - bad the relations between France, England and Russia as well as the UK and Germany may be the french politicians and militaries might still count/gamble on the RN not at all accepting any larger naval contingents regardless from whom in channel waters.
And therewith deploying their naval forces overwhelmingly elsewhere (aka the Med and maybe somewhere in colonial waters where there might be some larger german naval forces as well ... East Asia and Pacific ?).What would lead me once again to the question:
how fast and what forces might be deployed by France in northern atlantic waters adjuncting channel waters?
Let me make a proposal how the germans might have have attacked in the case described here:
only Germany and France, no other european forces - Russia, A-H, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Denmark, the scandinavian nations - involved.
For the sake of arguement let's assume Joffre is in command of the french forces. ... or someone else of the "attaque a outrance"-faction so in fashion in France at the time.Instead a large wheel through Belgium only a small wheel through Briey/Longwy and what I would like to call the "Trouee de Damvillers".
- From Diedenhofen-Metz an army invades towards Longuyon along the double lined railway from Diedenhofen to Sedan, bypassing the rather obsolete forts of Longwy and Montmedy (as IOTL by 5th Army),
- crossing the northern end of the Woevre plains towards Damvillers then further across the Meuse at about Dun-sur-Meuse/Vilones (about 50-60 kilomters from the german border, an about 3 days of march; IOTL 1st army managed such distances fightingly in 2 days) north of Verdun.
- Then wheel around Verdun southeast. to southwards for comming behind ther fortifications along the Meuse,
- echoloned by another army securing further northwards into the direction of Sedan.
This might be facilitated by another german army breaking from Metz -into the middle and southern Woevre plains quickly taking the railhub of Conflans pressing
- against the Verdun fortifications complex though not attacking directly.
- the objective might rather be occupying the highs of the Cotes Lorraine overlooking the string of forts along the Meuse towards Toul.
Further plan might be to 'bind' the french forces by advancing with kinda ITTL equivalent of OTLs german 6th Army for the wheeling move to success.If ... Joffre might attack similar as to OTL (as only attacking is the right form way to defend) it might only 'serve' the german cause similar to OTL. Might turn in kinda "dancing-around-each-other-race" who outflanks the other first:
- the germans straight east/southeastwards north of Verdun
- the french straight west/northwestwards south of Toul
It might be possible. It would perhaps require a reason for the French naval command to act in a way that would seem contrary to their interests. Nations have made such gambles before but not normally without some cause.
As to how fast and how much? That depends on the situation in the French Fleet and in the Med. The MN will need to escort the transports from Algeria, deal with any German Cruisers in the Med, and keep a watch on the Austrians and Italians. How much force that requires will depend on the perceived threat of each of these things, and the perceived threat to the North. I can show an estimate of the strength of the MN at the outbreak of war IOTL:
Yes, the Germans outnumber the French in cruisers, even a relatively rangey Blucher the French couldn't deal with at all.
I am thinking you wouldn't want the Germans raiding the western med or the African coast, because you need the stuff from your colonies at a minimum.
OTL there were a few French cruisers blockading Kamerun, I really could see the Germans sending Blucher there as a PR stunt, 200 marines and 10 machine guns stacked on top would mean a lot to the colony. Some of its secondary guns could be landed as well. I bet it could get there re coaling in Spain. If they lost Blucher for some reason its not really a big loss since its getting older anyway.
As for the French maybe raiding Luderitz in South West Africa. Maybe blockading the east end of Panama canal.
(honestly I don't see how a French-German war only happens in 1914, the Germans have no reason to provoke one, and the French are too weak, all the colonial issues are resolved, unless the Germans were aggressively demanding stuff and then the other powers would intervene.)
A few raids or bombardments of the French Mediterranean coast and there would be political hell to pay, diversions of troops, ships, artillery. Potentially a lot of result for little cost.
And, as you say, the long coasts of France's colonies are vulnerable.
For me, this is an interesting potential conflict. I'd start off with the French DoW against Germany being something along the lines of the 1870 war, where the French are somehow seen as the initiators of the war, and thus her potential allies refuse to jump on the French bandwagon, and they end up in a one on one war.
Germany cannot go all in on breaking France, annexing parts of mainland France, grabbing up her entire colonial empire, and going all reverse ToV levels of stupid.
For sure.
Naval war against Germany proper, nope. Naval war against the German colonial empire, for sure. A poor man's blockade, merchant shipping/raiding and the like, also a given (and potentially the most entertaining/interesting part of this hypothetical war).
Yes. I foresee many causalities, with little to no advances back and forth, followed by a stalemate/trench warfare. Just how bad this will be for France will depend on how quickly they realize that they cannot push the Germans out of AL, and have to shift the war's focus to something other than frontal assault of an increasingly well fortified boarder. I have no thoughts on how long this will take, nor how many must die of either side before this happens.
Not really an area of expertise for me, so I'll leave this one alone.
So far as possible, I would speculate that the Germans have to be wary of actions that draw in other nations to the conflict, so the least amount France occupied by Germany (especially in the channel), the better, at least until diplomatic efforts have failed to get either the US/UK in intervene diplomatically and bring the French to the negotiating table. Germanys actions must not seem like this war is about conquering metropolitan France, but some modest gains in overseas territory (Outside of the Caribbean) should be expected to occur.
For me, this war would best be played out over a number of years, with the Germans taking only limited portions of French territory, and then going over to the defensive (in Europe), and awaiting France to come to her senses, and make peace.
1) Fight quickly to take what you can, before the French have fortified to the hilt, and then just turtle up, and tell the world that you are willing to end the war, if only France can be brought to the negotiating table. France can gain nothing, and must renounce ALL claims to AL forever.
2) Make sure everyone knows that Germany is willing to make peace, as above, if peace is had soon. The longer the French continue a hopeless war, the more that she needs to loose at the peace table.
3) I would be very interested to hear how the commerce raiding/blockade aspects of this war plays out.
4) If the ground war can go on, with the pre-war boarders being on the front lines, or behind German lines, then Germany is out nothing, and the burden of the start and continuing war is clearly on France, then international opinion will more and more shift in Germanys favor.
5) Germany would in my opinion, be best served by taking limited areas of European France, and then fighting on the seas.
6) The German Navy has some design choices that limit what they can achieve against France (outside of a stand up engagement between fleets), so the war needs to see the Germans building a new, globally deployable force, so that they can carry the fight to Frances Empire. I would see this as mainly a cruiser war, but these new ships need to have long range/long duration voyages as a central aspect of their design, unlike the OTL ships.
7) Both France and Germany will be stronger than their OTL analogs, as neither will have lost significant portions of their trade/territory, but this altered balance will initially help Germany more, and later on come to favor Germany more and more.
1914: Initially take as much of France as you can, then hunker down and start talking peace, while standing on French soil, and fighting them tooth and nail on the worlds oceans, and start building long range ships, that have proper crew accommodations for long duration voyages as the central design change, as well as the logistical train to support global operations. If there is no prospect to getting the French navy into a decisive battle anytime soon, look into long range BC asap.
1915: If France proves to be stubborn, make limited advances/offensives, keep attacking their shipping, keep building new, long range Naval units.
1916: As above, keep telling the world that you are will to talk, and put the burden on France to come to the peace table. Continue your long range naval buildup.
1917: Some time around mid year, you will see Germany start commissioning her new, fast and long range BC, with more being ready month by month.
1918: Once Germany has the fleet train, and a large number of fast, long range BC in commission, begin taking the war to the French colonies. Make sure that you keep telling the world, that as soon as France makes peace, the fighting can stop, but the more colonies that Germany is forced to take, the more that will not be returned postwar.
Anyway, those are my thoughts for the setup you have outlined.
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