Scenario: Seleucus conquers Macedon; Celts invade overextended empire

[Cuāuhtemōc]

So I was dreaming...

We all know that Seleucus was the closest amongst Alexander's officers to reunite the Empire, except for Ptolemy's realm in Egypt. He defeated Lysimachus and conquered his lands in Asia Minor and had just recently crossed into the Thracian Chersonese when he was assassinated by Ptolemy Keraunos. Had Seleucus been alerted to Ptolemy's plan and had him executed or at least avoid the circumstances which led to his untimely death, it's safe to say that he would've moved to conquer Thrace and takeover the old kingdom of Macedonia. The Synedrion and assembly may choose to accept Seleucus as king or it may choose to resist Seleucus and elevate their own candidate from a variety of choice (Lysimachus' sons Ptolemy Epigonos & Alexander, Pyrrhus,Ptolemy Keraunos' brother Meleager, Antigonus etc).

Let's say they decide to say fuck you and resist the Seleucid king for the sake of the scenario I'm thinking of my head: candidate doesn't particularly matter. The Seleucids, short on manpower, recruits thousands of mercenaries amongst from the Celtic, Thracian and Illyrian tribes living beyond Macedonian control to face this challenge from the anti-Seleucus Macedonian king. The war is relatively long, bloodied and drawn out, requiring Seleucus to resort to razing and destroying a few cities and also recruiting more tribes to join in the fight. Seleucus succeeds in wiping out his competitors, subjugate Macedon at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and becomes King of Macedon. His reign is shortened by his untimely death due to old age and stress; messengers are sent to his son Antiochus to come to Macedon, send reinforcements to stabilize the situation (and keep the Greek cities in line) and take the throne.

Antiochus is however busy putting down revolts by uppity eastern satraps (which happened in OTL) to bother sending anything more than token assistance and Seleucid rule in Asia Minor is rather tenuous at best. The Celtic tribes, empowered and organized under Brennus, now with much battle experience from the years fighting alongside the Seleucid army, pour into the Balkans. The tribes spread about destruction, taking loot and herds of cattle, seizing towns and cities, permanently settling down. Displaced Illyrian and Thracian tribes are given the choice of subjugation, allying with the invading Celts or flee and find new homelands to their south: a mix happens.

The Macedonians and Seleucid troops left behind by Seleucus, in addition to a few reinforcements, attempt to push back the barbarians onslaught but are overwhelmed. The smaller towns and farmlands are abandoned to the barbarian tribes for the larger cities: it provides them with a temporary sense of relief but overwhelms the larger cities who now have to worry about feeding an increasing number of refugees, the Seleucid troops and keeping themselves from being enslaved by the Celts. Disease and hunger are rampant and the bodies soon begin to pile up on the streets. Discontentment grows and cooperation dissipates as every city is out for themselves. Those who can afford to leave do so: many immediately seek shelter in Athens, and Corinth but as the barbarian invasion moves southward, Asia Minor, Egypt and the Greek colonies of Magna Graecia. Some even go to Massilia and Carthage.

Successful in the east, Antiochus leads an army westward, first making sure that the uppity satraps and wannabe kings of Asia Minor don't do anything funny while he's around. He successfully musters an army summoned from a coalition made up of Greek city-states, Anatolian vassals and eastern satraps and decisively defeats the barbarian hordes before they could capture Pella (or whatever important Greek city) and kills several of the barbarian leaders, including Brennus. The barbarians soon fracture and retreat, beginning to fight amongst themselves. There is some land that is quickly reconquered and subjugated to a forced recolonization program that formally establishes new colonies, populated by a mix of Greeks and foreigners. Several tribes submit to the Seleucid king in exchange for protection from other tribes and recognition of their new homelands: knowing that they are too numerous to expel. The Macedonian and Epirote kingdoms are formally abolished, replaced by several city-states, organized into several regional federations led by figures that would supply men, equipment and funds to Seleucid coffers. No one is exactly content save for Antiochus but no one dared to offer resistance: the tribes were still a visible threat despite their fragmentation and the Greeks were tired of war. The situation is dire but more or less stable for at least a generation.

Content with the situation, the Seleucid king leaves the Balkans to wage war against Ptolemy.

What happens next? How would this affect world history?

 

[Practical Lobster]

I want to think about this in detail before I respond, but why is Macedonia abolished if Seleukos prevents Pella from being taken?

Wouldn't he always claim to be King of Makedonia in any case?

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

I want to think about this in detail before I respond, but why is Macedonia abolished if Seleukos prevents Pella from being taken?

Wouldn't he always claim to be King of Makedonia in any case?

There wouldn't much of Macedonia to claim, even with the reconquest. The Seleucids never claimed to be rulers of Persia nor Lords of Asia nor kings of Syria like their predecessors; I'd figured Antiochus wouldn't care too much about abolishing the Macedonian kingdom. As far as he's concerned, it's all one realm with one King: might as well formally recognize it as such. I may be mistaken.

 

[Lingu]

Just to clarify the proposed timeline; when does Seleucus I die?
Syrian war (1st round) breaks out at some point.
The point is that this isn't the best documented period of history; so the exact sequence of events of the war are uncertain but it seems the key component of Ptolemaic victory is the superiority of Ptolemaic fleet. So the real question is can Antiochus acquire a fleet from Greece/Macedon/wherever because otherwise the immediate history is unlikely to change.

Also minor quibble, why would Seleucus feel the need to hire a large amount of Gallic/Thracian mercenaries in 281/280 - he has a perfectly intact phalanx and royal guard from Corupedium at this point?

 

[Russian]

So I was dreaming...



What happens next? How would this affect world history?

Well, Ptolemy is good, but against that odds... If Antiochus keeps his mind clear, don't hurry too much and gets all his forces available... my guess, Ptolemy is pretty much doomed.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Just to clarify the proposed timeline; when does Seleucus I die?
Syrian war (1st round) breaks out at some point.
The point is that this isn't the best documented period of history; so the exact sequence of events of the war are uncertain but it seems the key component of Ptolemaic victory is the superiority of Ptolemaic fleet. So the real question is can Antiochus acquire a fleet from Greece/Macedon/wherever because otherwise the immediate history is unlikely to change.

Also minor quibble, why would Seleucus feel the need to hire a large amount of Gallic/Thracian mercenaries in 281/280 - he has a perfectly intact phalanx and royal guard from Corupedium at this point?

They're nimble and more mobile than the static phalanx. Why not use them to use his advantage? And as I mentioned, the scenario between Seleucus and Macedon is drawn out and bloody enough to seek extra manpower from beyond the Danube. Let's say Seleucus dies in 277 BC, three years later than IOTL.

 

[Practical Lobster]

I think the first thing that Seleukos would do would involve recruiting lots of Greek mercenaries - of which there should still be plenty. The manpower shortage you're describing just doesn't seem all that likely - although there's no reason that the Seleukids wouldn't hire Celtic mercenaries. An interesting thing to consider perhaps is the Seleucids offering them land grants at the extreme eastern end of the Empire rather than near Europe. I think that both the Greeks and Celts could learn some interesting military lessons from each other, and that might be an avenue to explore as well. Celtic troops serving alongside Greeks could probably see much earlier reforms of the Greek fighting style away from the phalanx-dominated style we saw in OTL.

I don't know if Makedon could be that hard fought of a war, with tens of thousands dead. It would invariably be very vulnerable to whatever invasion force Seleukos sent, I think. The Diadochi were big on preserving manpower, after all. A massive Celtic invasion has every likelihood of being devastating as OTL or more, of course. But Seleucid resources would see immediate reinforcements from Asia Minor and elsewhere, even if Antiochos was busy, and I think almost anyone could have handled the invasion better than Ptolemy Keraunos. Whatever regent is in Greece will likely be able to raise a large coalition and many "barbarian" tribes in the north to oppose a Celtic invasion and in all probability stop it earlier.

If what you want is more intermixing between Greek and Celtic cultures, I think there's several fertile areas for that to happen. One is similar to what I proposed above - a Celtic mercenary class settled by the Greeks as part of a policy of moving subject peoples around in a sort of divide and conquer. Another, of course, would be in Italy itself. Yet another would be a long-lasting Celtic/Greek kingdom in what OTL became the Balkans. The Celtic migration era is definitely a good place to start - however I just disagree that this Seleucid Empire would be an easier target than Keraunos' gross mismanagement of his state.

I think that in a series of wars, Egypt will probably eventually lose.

 

[TimTurner]

@Seleucus