In 2004 amid much enthusiasm SAFTA( South Asian Free Trade Agreement ) was signed. It was an attempt to leave behind memories of the Kargil war and try new bold measures. It was hoped that it will be in time as successful as NAFTA and could even lead to a future customs union. Will it be successful?
SAFTA- A SAARC TL
- Thread starter Rajveer Naha
- Start date
New Beginnings
26th July,1999-- The Kargil war has just ended with India recapturing every post, tensions are high in the subcontinent. The first conflict between nuclear powers have just ended. Mutual distrust prevails. But several countries in the region have hopes of recovery.
12th October,1999-- Pakistani Coup d etat occurs and general Pervez Musharraf takes power.
1st October,2001--Khaleda Zia wins the general elections. Bangladesh inspired at the success of NAFTA searches for hope for similar agreements in South Asia.
13th December,2001--Indian Parliament attacked by terrorists belonging to LeT and JeM. Both countries mobilize the forces but the situation quickly calms down due to French and American mediation.
4th January,2002--The 11th SAARC summit begins in Kathmandu. It is surprising that it is not only a talk show. Actual progress in various initiatives are made. Despite hostility between India and Pakistan over the recent attacks new programs like Free Trade, easy transport, visa exemptions are discussed in detail. It is one of the most productive summits in the history of SAARC.
27th February,2002--Riots start in Gujarat because of the burning of a train and escalate. More than a thousand fatalities occur. People blame the Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Modi for turning it into a pogrom on Muslims.( The Indian Supreme Court released Narendra Modi of all charges in 2012 in OTL and ITTL too)
11th April,2002-- Atal Bihari Vajpayee resign as he failed remove Modi from power due to internal party politics and the lack of support from LK Advani. The NDA alliance becomes untenable and the government falls. New elections are scheduled for May.
12th October,1999-- Pakistani Coup d etat occurs and general Pervez Musharraf takes power.
1st October,2001--Khaleda Zia wins the general elections. Bangladesh inspired at the success of NAFTA searches for hope for similar agreements in South Asia.
13th December,2001--Indian Parliament attacked by terrorists belonging to LeT and JeM. Both countries mobilize the forces but the situation quickly calms down due to French and American mediation.
4th January,2002--The 11th SAARC summit begins in Kathmandu. It is surprising that it is not only a talk show. Actual progress in various initiatives are made. Despite hostility between India and Pakistan over the recent attacks new programs like Free Trade, easy transport, visa exemptions are discussed in detail. It is one of the most productive summits in the history of SAARC.
27th February,2002--Riots start in Gujarat because of the burning of a train and escalate. More than a thousand fatalities occur. People blame the Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Modi for turning it into a pogrom on Muslims.( The Indian Supreme Court released Narendra Modi of all charges in 2012 in OTL and ITTL too)
11th April,2002-- Atal Bihari Vajpayee resign as he failed remove Modi from power due to internal party politics and the lack of support from LK Advani. The NDA alliance becomes untenable and the government falls. New elections are scheduled for May.
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Fast Changes
1st July,2002--Results of the Indian General elections are out. The Indian National Congress led United Progressive Alliance wins 315 of the 545 seats and form the government. The new government declares accelerating economic growth and regional harmony to be it's main aims. Manmohan Singh who is hailed as the hero of economic liberalisation takes charge as the Prime Minister.
October 2002-- agreements are signed with USA, EU and Japan, ending the sanctions imposed on India after the 1998 nuclear tests.
20th January,2003--USA-India civilian nuclear agreement is signed marking a major milestone in Indo-US relationship. And talks between Iran and US sponsored by India begin.
9th February,2003-- a series of mortar attacks by the Pakistani Taliban kill many civilians and mass protest urging the government to take action begin. The Junta agrees and begins a crackdown on terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Later that month Let, JeM and IM go rogue and attempt a coup and fighting spreads to Azad Kashmir. It is remembered as the second civil war in Pakistan. Indian troops near the border remain on high alert.
June,2003-- General Pervez Musharraf proclaims victory calls for a session of the National Assembly, the first time in several years. Detente between India and Pakistan is at an all time high.
17th September,2003--Khaleda Zia tours India and expresses a desire to establish a free trade area in South Asia after the Bangladeshi bid to join ASEAN fails.
15th December,2003--Start of Operation All Clear the Royal Bhutan Army attacks ULFA and other millitants operating in Assam from Bhutan.
20th December,2003-- At the initiative of Sher Bahadur Deuba India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan sign the South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement.
October 2002-- agreements are signed with USA, EU and Japan, ending the sanctions imposed on India after the 1998 nuclear tests.
20th January,2003--USA-India civilian nuclear agreement is signed marking a major milestone in Indo-US relationship. And talks between Iran and US sponsored by India begin.
9th February,2003-- a series of mortar attacks by the Pakistani Taliban kill many civilians and mass protest urging the government to take action begin. The Junta agrees and begins a crackdown on terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Later that month Let, JeM and IM go rogue and attempt a coup and fighting spreads to Azad Kashmir. It is remembered as the second civil war in Pakistan. Indian troops near the border remain on high alert.
June,2003-- General Pervez Musharraf proclaims victory calls for a session of the National Assembly, the first time in several years. Detente between India and Pakistan is at an all time high.
17th September,2003--Khaleda Zia tours India and expresses a desire to establish a free trade area in South Asia after the Bangladeshi bid to join ASEAN fails.
15th December,2003--Start of Operation All Clear the Royal Bhutan Army attacks ULFA and other millitants operating in Assam from Bhutan.
20th December,2003-- At the initiative of Sher Bahadur Deuba India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan sign the South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement.
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Finally SAFTA
6th January,2004-- The SAFTA protocol is signed in the Islamabad summit of the SAARC hopes are high in all the countries in the region and businessmen await it's implementation eagerly.
January,2004--an unprecedented ceasefire continues in Sri Lanka. LTTE and The government begins talks but Wikremesinghe doesn't trust Pravakaran. Musharraf wins elections to the post of President of Pakistan (no one is surprised).
April,2004--Elections begin in Sri Lanka. Pakistan army reduces strength by 50000 troops.In Sri Lanka Wikremesinghe retains power.
15th July,2004--India and Pakistan start Peace negotiations for the improvement of trade and discuss about making the Line of Control a full fledged international border. Negotiations on this matter will continue for several months. A Friendly cricket tournament is organised in Karachi and Mumbai.
September,2004--The civil war in Nepal intensifies, maoists attack several high profile targets although none of their targets are killed, commercial flights from Kathmandu are stopped by all foreign airlines except Indian Airlines and Biman Bangladesh.
13th October,2004--King Gyanendra of Nepal declares that he will convert his country into a complete constitutional monarchy. People of Nepal celebrate and high level meetings occur within the Communist Party of Nepal(maoist).The South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement is ratified by Bhutan, the last country to do so and operationalized trade between the four countries increases by 15% immediately.
November,2004--The Sri Lankan government and LTTE hold a round table conference, the government agrees in principle to grant autonomy to the Tamils and the details are to be worked out in the future. LTTE describes the conference as very productive.
26th December,2004-A massive earthquake of magnitude of 10.9 on the Richter scale in the Indian Ocean creates a massive earthquake. Southern India and Sri Lanka are badly affected. Relief flows in from around the world.
January,2004--an unprecedented ceasefire continues in Sri Lanka. LTTE and The government begins talks but Wikremesinghe doesn't trust Pravakaran. Musharraf wins elections to the post of President of Pakistan (no one is surprised).
April,2004--Elections begin in Sri Lanka. Pakistan army reduces strength by 50000 troops.In Sri Lanka Wikremesinghe retains power.
15th July,2004--India and Pakistan start Peace negotiations for the improvement of trade and discuss about making the Line of Control a full fledged international border. Negotiations on this matter will continue for several months. A Friendly cricket tournament is organised in Karachi and Mumbai.
September,2004--The civil war in Nepal intensifies, maoists attack several high profile targets although none of their targets are killed, commercial flights from Kathmandu are stopped by all foreign airlines except Indian Airlines and Biman Bangladesh.
13th October,2004--King Gyanendra of Nepal declares that he will convert his country into a complete constitutional monarchy. People of Nepal celebrate and high level meetings occur within the Communist Party of Nepal(maoist).The South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement is ratified by Bhutan, the last country to do so and operationalized trade between the four countries increases by 15% immediately.
November,2004--The Sri Lankan government and LTTE hold a round table conference, the government agrees in principle to grant autonomy to the Tamils and the details are to be worked out in the future. LTTE describes the conference as very productive.
26th December,2004-A massive earthquake of magnitude of 10.9 on the Richter scale in the Indian Ocean creates a massive earthquake. Southern India and Sri Lanka are badly affected. Relief flows in from around the world.
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A Year of Accords
19th January,2005--Dubai conference for peace talks between India and Pakistan begins, a landmark agreement is reached declaring the Line of Control in Kashmir as the international border and Pakistan conceeds that the siachen glacier belongs to India. Protests erupt in both the countries, the army quitens all protests in Pakistan and in India BJP carries out enormous protests but to seal the border dispute once and for all it must be passed by a majority of two third in the parliament of India. The ruling alliance manages to get enough votes to get the resolution passed in the Lok Sabha large scale absenteeism allows it to be passed in the Rajya Sabha. International critics term it as the most important step towards a long-term peace in the subcontinent.
27th January,2005-- Wikremesinghe and Pravakaran sign the Phuket Accords stating a detailed plan for long term peace . An interim self government is created in the Tamil areas and elections are held. The Tamil National Alliance wins more seats than the LTTE and the peace talks quicken.
February,2005--Pakistan requests that it should be admitted to the South Asia motor vehicle agreement as it has made great sacrifices( accepting the loss of Kashmir ) however the memories of the Indian Parliament Attack is still strong.
10th March,2005-- King Gyanendra of Nepal presents a new constitution similar to the current one OTL but retaining the Royal family in Place of the President and calls for fresh elections in April. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is also asked to join peace talks and contest the election. They term the elections to be National Betrayal instead.
6th April,2005-- Elections are held in Nepal but are disrupted by Maoist attacks. Attacks on civilians turn the public opinion against the maoists. Indian army central command mobilises 60,000 troops to help the Royal Nepal Army. USA provides Nepali army arms under the Cold War programs.
11th April,2005--Oslo Peace Agreement is signed. Sri Lanka becomes a federation of six provinces. A large province of Tamils and Muslims mainly of Moorish origin is created stretching across eastern, northern and North Western Sri Lanka along with six sinhala provinces. The new Tamil province is called Ellam and has complete control over it's territory except for foreign affairs, communications and defence. A new constitution is created in which the the post of Prime Minister is abolished and the post of secretary of state is created. The constitution established a Presidential system where the President and Vice-president are Sinhala and the Secretary of State is a Tamil and the speakers of the People's Assembly is a Christian Sinhalese and the Federal Council is a Muslim Tamil. Internationally mixed reactions are displayed. The western countries state that such a peace permanently divided the Sinhala and Tamil nations and the peace is doomed to fail. 20000 LTTE militia are absorbed into the Sri Lankan army. The Sri Lankan civil war has ended.
April,2005-- Peace talks are held between the newly elected government of Nepal led by G P Koirala falter after the government warns of a joint intervention by all the SAARC Countries if the conflict escalates. Indian and Bangladeshi Jets fly overhead to reinforce that claim.
India starts Operation Green Hunt to search and destroy the Maoists and Naxalite terrorists in the states of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. The state police forces show unprecedented cooperation. 2,00,000 paramilitary forces are deployed.
May,2005- trade and tourism between the South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement countries nearly doubled. No one expected such massive strides in trade. Pakistan signs the agreement but for the time being strict checks are done at the border.
23rd July,2005-- Kumaratunga wins the new Sri Lankan Presidential elections in a landslide and D Siddarthan becomes the Secretary of State. This election Stokes new fears of renewed conflict as Kumaratunga was against the Peace deal, however she maintains the status quo and lobbies for the implementation of the SAFTA protocol.
12th August,2005--Massive protests begin across Maldives after the arrest of Mohamed Nasheed. Heavy protest and the turning of the Maldives Democratic Party supporters against the incumbent President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom against him nearly half of male is cordoned off.
13th September,2005--Musharraf flees Pakistan after major protests and new elections are held. Nawaz Sharif Wins the Elections. The new Pakistani government ratified the SAFTA agreement and recognises the Kashmiri international border. Pakistan becomes the last country to ratify the SAFTA and the treaty operationalises , it is hailed as the most successful achievement of SAARC and pundits in the region start discussing about a future customs union. Pakistan admits Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir as its fifth and sixth province respectively.
8th October,2005--A massive earthquake of magnitude 7.6 on the Richter scale strikes Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan scramble to deliver aid ,the Indian Air Force deploys 50 aircrafts in Pakistan to help in relief efforts. Over 70,000 people are killed, massive aid is received from around the world.
November,2005--Talks in New Delhi between United Liberation Front of Assam(ULFA) and the Indian government result in ULFA laying down their arms. They were already severely weakened by the Operation All Clear the previous year.
3rd December,2005--After India warns President Gayoom of Maldives to hold Democratic election or else face intervention after many months of protests, President Gayoom flees the country ( which is ironical as in 1988 Indian intervention saved him from the attempted coup by the People's Liberation Organization of the Tamil Ellam ) . This gesture by India is welcomed by all the SAARC Countries as Maldives was the last non Democratic country left in SAARC
9th December,2005-- The Maoists in Nepal agree to a peace agreement. More powers are granted to the provinces and several social welfare schemes are introduced. The militia of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is integrated with the army and it transforms into a political party. These actions legitimize the rule of King Gyanendra.
27th January,2005-- Wikremesinghe and Pravakaran sign the Phuket Accords stating a detailed plan for long term peace . An interim self government is created in the Tamil areas and elections are held. The Tamil National Alliance wins more seats than the LTTE and the peace talks quicken.
February,2005--Pakistan requests that it should be admitted to the South Asia motor vehicle agreement as it has made great sacrifices( accepting the loss of Kashmir ) however the memories of the Indian Parliament Attack is still strong.
10th March,2005-- King Gyanendra of Nepal presents a new constitution similar to the current one OTL but retaining the Royal family in Place of the President and calls for fresh elections in April. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is also asked to join peace talks and contest the election. They term the elections to be National Betrayal instead.
6th April,2005-- Elections are held in Nepal but are disrupted by Maoist attacks. Attacks on civilians turn the public opinion against the maoists. Indian army central command mobilises 60,000 troops to help the Royal Nepal Army. USA provides Nepali army arms under the Cold War programs.
11th April,2005--Oslo Peace Agreement is signed. Sri Lanka becomes a federation of six provinces. A large province of Tamils and Muslims mainly of Moorish origin is created stretching across eastern, northern and North Western Sri Lanka along with six sinhala provinces. The new Tamil province is called Ellam and has complete control over it's territory except for foreign affairs, communications and defence. A new constitution is created in which the the post of Prime Minister is abolished and the post of secretary of state is created. The constitution established a Presidential system where the President and Vice-president are Sinhala and the Secretary of State is a Tamil and the speakers of the People's Assembly is a Christian Sinhalese and the Federal Council is a Muslim Tamil. Internationally mixed reactions are displayed. The western countries state that such a peace permanently divided the Sinhala and Tamil nations and the peace is doomed to fail. 20000 LTTE militia are absorbed into the Sri Lankan army. The Sri Lankan civil war has ended.
April,2005-- Peace talks are held between the newly elected government of Nepal led by G P Koirala falter after the government warns of a joint intervention by all the SAARC Countries if the conflict escalates. Indian and Bangladeshi Jets fly overhead to reinforce that claim.
India starts Operation Green Hunt to search and destroy the Maoists and Naxalite terrorists in the states of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. The state police forces show unprecedented cooperation. 2,00,000 paramilitary forces are deployed.
May,2005- trade and tourism between the South Asian Motor Vehicle Agreement countries nearly doubled. No one expected such massive strides in trade. Pakistan signs the agreement but for the time being strict checks are done at the border.
23rd July,2005-- Kumaratunga wins the new Sri Lankan Presidential elections in a landslide and D Siddarthan becomes the Secretary of State. This election Stokes new fears of renewed conflict as Kumaratunga was against the Peace deal, however she maintains the status quo and lobbies for the implementation of the SAFTA protocol.
12th August,2005--Massive protests begin across Maldives after the arrest of Mohamed Nasheed. Heavy protest and the turning of the Maldives Democratic Party supporters against the incumbent President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom against him nearly half of male is cordoned off.
13th September,2005--Musharraf flees Pakistan after major protests and new elections are held. Nawaz Sharif Wins the Elections. The new Pakistani government ratified the SAFTA agreement and recognises the Kashmiri international border. Pakistan becomes the last country to ratify the SAFTA and the treaty operationalises , it is hailed as the most successful achievement of SAARC and pundits in the region start discussing about a future customs union. Pakistan admits Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir as its fifth and sixth province respectively.
8th October,2005--A massive earthquake of magnitude 7.6 on the Richter scale strikes Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan scramble to deliver aid ,the Indian Air Force deploys 50 aircrafts in Pakistan to help in relief efforts. Over 70,000 people are killed, massive aid is received from around the world.
November,2005--Talks in New Delhi between United Liberation Front of Assam(ULFA) and the Indian government result in ULFA laying down their arms. They were already severely weakened by the Operation All Clear the previous year.
3rd December,2005--After India warns President Gayoom of Maldives to hold Democratic election or else face intervention after many months of protests, President Gayoom flees the country ( which is ironical as in 1988 Indian intervention saved him from the attempted coup by the People's Liberation Organization of the Tamil Ellam ) . This gesture by India is welcomed by all the SAARC Countries as Maldives was the last non Democratic country left in SAARC
9th December,2005-- The Maoists in Nepal agree to a peace agreement. More powers are granted to the provinces and several social welfare schemes are introduced. The militia of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is integrated with the army and it transforms into a political party. These actions legitimize the rule of King Gyanendra.
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Critical analysis-1
Yes you are absolutely right in your thinking. You must be thinking if these you countries couldn't resolve similar and many same issues over the several decades why now?
In Musharraf's coup the age of broadcasting and mass media had already set in he desperately wanted to legitimize his rule. At first he tried a masked Presidential election which did not work out, his continues support for the Taliban angered the US. China always found it easier to influence Democratic politicians rather than military strongmen. When he turned against Pakistan in OTL it made LeT, JeM and IM go crazy and high tensions prevailed between them and the government and minor incidents started occuring within Pakistan itself which necessitated allowing a large raid in India to ease the tensions which culminated in 26/11 attacks.
ITTL they attempted a coup against the Pakistan Army rule which is not very far fetched as hot heads are moments away from such steps and they can pose as liberators to the people, freeing them from the Dictatorial Rule. Coups against army if one has popular support is quite possible with very few examples though and the those groups enjoy a popular perception in Pakistan too. After all their class 10 history books blame Hindus for the partition of Pakistan. After turning against the millitants he needed to do something to legitimize his rule more than ever. His rapprochement with India surely raised nearly every eyebrow but something needed to be done to prove that he was not another military madman like Marcos or Pinochet. His act endeared him to the world and the Pakistani upper middle class who had nothing to do with India and were relieved that to get a peace from a looming nuclear war. Kashmir is a political weapon and everyone has realized that no one can control all of it and must accept the status quo. Once the core issue undermining Indo-Pak issues is resolved what stops cooperation now even Jinnah wanted India and Pakistan to be like USA and Canada. And after so many agreements have been signed what can be a better show of Solidarity than cooperation in disaster relief although opponents to this warming of ties between the two countries will still shout out their concerns aloud.
Spoiler Alert: Musharraf will return to Pakistan and get to the top position again
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What good can SAARC do? Part-1
January,2006--Nepal records unprecedented economic growth after years of war, 98% of it's trade is directed to the SAARC Countries. Bhutan's tourism growth is enormous, with the introduction of new tourists from Pakistan and Sri Lanka. India's new Golden Quadrilateral highways become the symbols of intra SAARC trade.
February,2006--After long delays the Indo-US nuclear deal is finally ratified by the US Congress.
March,2006--The Dhaka Summit of SAARC is held and all countries agree to visa free travel and decide to hold annual meetings of the SAARC. A new body called the South Asian Development Bank is to be created for the purpose of extending loans for infrastructure and welfare projects and monitoring intra SAARC trade. Myanmar and Afganistan are given observer status in the SAARC. The countries also participate in the Commonwealth Games held in that year. The first bus service between Pakistan and Afganistan resume after 27 years.
May,2006--The Sikh Shrine of Kartapur Sahib is opened to Indian Pilgrims. And India and Pakistan start discussions on promotion of mutual tourism.
July,2006--Top remaining ULFA leaders including Paresh Baruah are arrested in Dhaka and are deported to India.
August,2006--South Asian games are held in Colombo,Sri Lanka. India wins 214 medals followed by Pakistani at 184 and Sri Lanka at 178. Baluch rebel chief Akbar Bugti is killed in a PAF airstrike.
September,2006--A joint military exercise involving India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka take place in Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
October,2006--On 9th India launched a massive surgical strike on Manipuri and Naga millitants operating from Myanmar. It yields more results than expected and beings them the negotiating table.
December,2006--Asian games are held. Detailed plans are finalized for the creation of the South Asian Development Bank.
February,2006--After long delays the Indo-US nuclear deal is finally ratified by the US Congress.
March,2006--The Dhaka Summit of SAARC is held and all countries agree to visa free travel and decide to hold annual meetings of the SAARC. A new body called the South Asian Development Bank is to be created for the purpose of extending loans for infrastructure and welfare projects and monitoring intra SAARC trade. Myanmar and Afganistan are given observer status in the SAARC. The countries also participate in the Commonwealth Games held in that year. The first bus service between Pakistan and Afganistan resume after 27 years.
May,2006--The Sikh Shrine of Kartapur Sahib is opened to Indian Pilgrims. And India and Pakistan start discussions on promotion of mutual tourism.
July,2006--Top remaining ULFA leaders including Paresh Baruah are arrested in Dhaka and are deported to India.
August,2006--South Asian games are held in Colombo,Sri Lanka. India wins 214 medals followed by Pakistani at 184 and Sri Lanka at 178. Baluch rebel chief Akbar Bugti is killed in a PAF airstrike.
September,2006--A joint military exercise involving India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka take place in Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
October,2006--On 9th India launched a massive surgical strike on Manipuri and Naga millitants operating from Myanmar. It yields more results than expected and beings them the negotiating table.
December,2006--Asian games are held. Detailed plans are finalized for the creation of the South Asian Development Bank.
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Due to the coronavirus pandering, I will observe the level of international and regional cooperation achieved before posting the next update.
What good can SAARC do? Part-2
January,2007--Nepal and India sign agreements to revive and build the Pancheshwar Dam heavy protests are triggered but the project moven on with a target to complete the dam in 9 years.
February,2007--The BBIN agreement countries sign a further accord to allow free movement between the countries and is met with heavy protests in the north eastern states of India. India freezes the treaty for a future date.
March,2007--Negotiations start for an agreement that would eventually allow for free movement between the SAARC countries but it is agreed that it has to be implemented phase wise. JF-17 Thunder enters Pakistan Air Force service.
April,2007--It is observed that free trade has significantly increased the mutual trust between the ordinary people of the countries.
May,2007--Finally a peace is reached between the Nepali government and the Maoists agree to contest elections which will be held the following year as part of the peace deal. The fighters who lay down arms are absorbed into the army, police and a new border guard force called the Nepal Border Police. However some splinter groups continue the resistance.
June,2007--Afghanistan government seeks aid an advise from the SAARC countries to rebuild their economy.
July,2007--The results of the Indian General Election is out, the Congress led UPA wins 370 seats of the 545. The new government declares that aims for further SAARC cooperation.
August,2007--The Financial Statements show that the intra SAARC trade has grown by 20% over the previous year.
September,2007--A wave of terrorist attacks rock Pakistan two hotels in Islamabad and the Jinnah International airport in Karachi are attacked by the remnants of Pakistani Taliban . The siege of the two hotels last two days and lead to the loss of 130 lives. Pakistan declares war on Taliban and send troops into Afghanistan however they are surprised that they know so little about Taliban which ran more or less on their whims and fancies a few years ago.
October,2007--Pakistan's war against Taliban lead to huge casualties and a new insurgency in Waziristan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but they push on , some in the government dream of a joint SAARC intervention.
November,2007--Cyclone Sidr strikes Bangladesh and results in thousands of deaths. All the SAARC countries send aid immediately.
December,2007--Final details of the South Asian Development Bank are finalized and it is decided that it will be headquartered in Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte .
February,2007--The BBIN agreement countries sign a further accord to allow free movement between the countries and is met with heavy protests in the north eastern states of India. India freezes the treaty for a future date.
March,2007--Negotiations start for an agreement that would eventually allow for free movement between the SAARC countries but it is agreed that it has to be implemented phase wise. JF-17 Thunder enters Pakistan Air Force service.
April,2007--It is observed that free trade has significantly increased the mutual trust between the ordinary people of the countries.
May,2007--Finally a peace is reached between the Nepali government and the Maoists agree to contest elections which will be held the following year as part of the peace deal. The fighters who lay down arms are absorbed into the army, police and a new border guard force called the Nepal Border Police. However some splinter groups continue the resistance.
June,2007--Afghanistan government seeks aid an advise from the SAARC countries to rebuild their economy.
July,2007--The results of the Indian General Election is out, the Congress led UPA wins 370 seats of the 545. The new government declares that aims for further SAARC cooperation.
August,2007--The Financial Statements show that the intra SAARC trade has grown by 20% over the previous year.
September,2007--A wave of terrorist attacks rock Pakistan two hotels in Islamabad and the Jinnah International airport in Karachi are attacked by the remnants of Pakistani Taliban . The siege of the two hotels last two days and lead to the loss of 130 lives. Pakistan declares war on Taliban and send troops into Afghanistan however they are surprised that they know so little about Taliban which ran more or less on their whims and fancies a few years ago.
October,2007--Pakistan's war against Taliban lead to huge casualties and a new insurgency in Waziristan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but they push on , some in the government dream of a joint SAARC intervention.
November,2007--Cyclone Sidr strikes Bangladesh and results in thousands of deaths. All the SAARC countries send aid immediately.
December,2007--Final details of the South Asian Development Bank are finalized and it is decided that it will be headquartered in Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte .
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They wouldn't settle for it but will have to compromise. If the seven party alliance that represented the parliament sides with the king, then the maoists dont have much political power. If Gyanendra retains some power and the SPA agrees to the terms, then the maoists would likely go back to the jungles. Then, the only issues would be whether the external forces like RAW would support them or not. If yes, than Nepal remains turbulent for a few more years, if no, then they are slowly but surely defeated.
Exactly. They would fight. Small bands of bandits in Nepal are still linked to the Maoists, and they would fight and go down. They wouldn't go for a settled peace. It's not how they have operated in the past at all.
Factions may continue a weak struggle as the communist insurgency in India. If every major party is against them they would obviously have little support amongst the populace and remain an irritation.
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Kinda won't. Communism and Socialism have always been powerful in Nepal, with a third of the major political parties supporting the commies. Also the rural areas supported the commies heavily as under them they received proper administration that wasn't neglected from Kathmandu. You need to take away the support of the rural areas. Without that the Communists would still be able to wage a very strong guerilla war. And rural areas have always been on the bottom of the list for Nepal, and any minister trying to change that before 2016 would have been scoffed at and their political career in shambles. Nepalese development have always been centered on regional capitals and the surrounding areas and nothing in between. Changing such attitudes would take decades as it is finally beings he'd OTL, but after 30 years of reform and a civil war. Pretty hard to do.
@Sarthak Bikram Panta From the next update onwards I will add reforms for sure, some of which will affect the entire region.For you I will add a memorable fight in the future 👍
Yeah. Unless some major reforms are made which are acceptable to the urban elite, then the communist sympathy ain't going nowhere.
Is it just another year?
January,2008--Due to the growing importance and requirements of SAARC the countries call for more frequent meetings. Proposals range from biannual meets to establishing a SAARC Council. The upcoming SAARC summit in Colombo is preponed and rescheduled to June.
February,2008--Agricultural production level is record high in South Asia for the year 2007-8. Although at war with its main erstwhile supporter Taliban shows remarkable resilience.
March,2008--Elections are held in Bhutan for the new Constitution that would come into force later in the year. DTP wins 45 out of 47 seats.
April,2008-- The first edition of Indan Premier league begins. Rajasthan Royals are the Champions.
May,2008--Netra Bikram Chand 'biplav' and Mohan 'kiran' split off and form Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist) and decide to restart the Civil war. Their aim calls for the complete victory of the revolution. They start an insurgency that would rage on for a decade and frnge groups continue to fight to this day.
June,2008--In the Colombo Summit of SAARC it is decided that summits will be continued to be held every two years but a council is established that will meet thrice a year. The council will be composed of ten MPs from each member country's lower house of the parliament elected by the the MPs (10% vote = 1 seat) keeping in line with the democratic nature of SAARC. The SAARC council will meet in its headquarters which will be situated in Dhaka. New council members are elected by each member country after every Parliamentary elections. Afghanistan is also admitted into SAARC as an observer nation. Full member status is denied to Afghanistan as Bhutan and Bangladesh has objections regarding its democratic setup.
July,2008--The new Constitution of Bhutan comes into force. It is the most democratic setup in all of the Subcontinent and makes Bhutan a complete constitutional monarchy.
August,2008-- In the Beijing Summer Olympics all the SAARC countries show poor performance. Only Abhinav Bindra from India clinches a gold medal along with two other medalists.
September,2008--The South Asian Development Bank opens in Colombo. The Sri Lankan government completed the SADB building in a record 10 months.
October,2008--India, Japan, Australia and USA conduct a massive tri-service military off the Malabar coast as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. China protests strongly, calling it an Asian NATO.
November,2008--The first SAARC council meeting is held in Westin Hotel in Dhaka. An unusual point of discussion is the poor performance of South Asia in Olympics and Asian games.
Barrack Obama wins the US presidential election.
December,2008--The Bangladesh General Elections are held. It is a massive surprise that despite having such a strong performance in the economic and social spheres the ruling party lost. The Awami League won 152 of the 300 seats whereas BNP won only 108 seats.
February,2008--Agricultural production level is record high in South Asia for the year 2007-8. Although at war with its main erstwhile supporter Taliban shows remarkable resilience.
March,2008--Elections are held in Bhutan for the new Constitution that would come into force later in the year. DTP wins 45 out of 47 seats.
April,2008-- The first edition of Indan Premier league begins. Rajasthan Royals are the Champions.
May,2008--Netra Bikram Chand 'biplav' and Mohan 'kiran' split off and form Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist) and decide to restart the Civil war. Their aim calls for the complete victory of the revolution. They start an insurgency that would rage on for a decade and frnge groups continue to fight to this day.
June,2008--In the Colombo Summit of SAARC it is decided that summits will be continued to be held every two years but a council is established that will meet thrice a year. The council will be composed of ten MPs from each member country's lower house of the parliament elected by the the MPs (10% vote = 1 seat) keeping in line with the democratic nature of SAARC. The SAARC council will meet in its headquarters which will be situated in Dhaka. New council members are elected by each member country after every Parliamentary elections. Afghanistan is also admitted into SAARC as an observer nation. Full member status is denied to Afghanistan as Bhutan and Bangladesh has objections regarding its democratic setup.
July,2008--The new Constitution of Bhutan comes into force. It is the most democratic setup in all of the Subcontinent and makes Bhutan a complete constitutional monarchy.
August,2008-- In the Beijing Summer Olympics all the SAARC countries show poor performance. Only Abhinav Bindra from India clinches a gold medal along with two other medalists.
September,2008--The South Asian Development Bank opens in Colombo. The Sri Lankan government completed the SADB building in a record 10 months.
October,2008--India, Japan, Australia and USA conduct a massive tri-service military off the Malabar coast as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. China protests strongly, calling it an Asian NATO.
November,2008--The first SAARC council meeting is held in Westin Hotel in Dhaka. An unusual point of discussion is the poor performance of South Asia in Olympics and Asian games.
Barrack Obama wins the US presidential election.
December,2008--The Bangladesh General Elections are held. It is a massive surprise that despite having such a strong performance in the economic and social spheres the ruling party lost. The Awami League won 152 of the 300 seats whereas BNP won only 108 seats.
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