Saddam steps back

[Gremlin]

Recently reading an article on why Iraq invaded Kuwait.

At the end of the Iran-Iraq war, Iraqs economy is in trouble - saddam fears a coup and needs money. He trys to get his war debt with the Arabian countries written off and an OPEC aggrement that will aid Iraqs reconstruction. He fails and invades.

So WI its January 15th 1991. With the coalition in place and the countdown to desert storm approaching zero hour - Saddam withdraws from Kuwait (having looted the country and fired the oil wells)

 

[DMA]

Not a bad idea actually (from Saddam's point of view). It would certainly take the wind out of the US/UN sails as their mandate was to liberate Kuwait, not invade Iraq & remove Saddam.

I do wonder, though, having gained such a victory, if it can be called that, considering the size of the US/UN force at the time, whether they'll invade Iraq & remove Saddam in lieu of destroying the Iraqi army & liberating Kuwait akin to the OTL. I know the Saudis would be against it, as would many others, but the temptation would certainly be there for the USA, UK, maybe even the French, et al, to invade Iraq.

Otherwise, although Saddam would still have his army more or less unmolested, I'd imagine the UN will hit him with economic sanctions, whilst the "no-fly" zones would more than likely be repeated. As a result the OTL may well be repeated albeit any future invasion, akin to Bush's resent adventures, could be a lot more bloodier this time around.

 

[Gremlin]

With Saddam complying with the UN call for leaving Kuwait the UK/US cannot force an invasion or no-fly zones on the country. As for sanctions Saddam can point to the warnings he made to the region about how without effective dialogue to alleviate his countries economic woes he would take action. (infering without dialogue he could do so again)

The conservative Saudi's cannot keep the coalition forces in country (socially and politically) and cannot rely on themselves alone to defend against Iraqi incursions - therefore I see them talking.

 

[DMA]

Still, I can't see the US/UN simply letting Saddam invade Kuwait without sever repercussions. He'll have to face the music one way or another. So I'd dare say that the sanctions are in, until Saddam either returns to Kuwait everything Iraq stole along with war reparation damages &/or he surrenders himself to UN forces to face a trial over the fracas.

Now the business on the "no-fly" zones depends whether or not, I'd dare say, the US/UN launched their air offensive against Iraq in the prelude to their aborted land offensive in Kuwait. If so, well Iraq hasn't got an airforce left anyway, so the "no-fly" zones are merely a recognition of the reality. Of course it's a different story if Iraq hasn't suffered the horrendous air offensive against it.

Having said all that, yeah I agree that the Saudi's would prefer to talk it out with Saddam rather than see the UN/US forces invade Iraq to remove him. This could see a split in the ranks, however, & any actual invasion could have long term negative consequences for the Middle East as a whole. Still, the temptation for the USA to invade would be high. It may well depend upon what the likes of what the UK & France think & thus their advise. I'd say, though, it would be a 50-50 proposition at this point.

 

[Gremlin]

I think that at this point in time Saddam wasn't the great villian he was due to become and with Kuwait now free and no mandate to invade Iraq proper - I see the coalition being scaled back down to its 'speed-bump' numbers and the Saudi's paying for Kuwaits reconstruction and keeping the whole affair in-house.

So Saddams scores a strategic win and he can still be heard to this day addressing his faithful followers in Baghdad telling them how he tweaked the great satans tail and humilated him!!!!

 

[DMA]

I think Saddam shows he is the Mother or All Villans by the fact that he invades a small, more or less defenceless country, called Kuwait.

Up until then, granted Saddam had a chance - but afterwards it's a completely different story. Not to mention the fact that Kuwait had big friends...

BTW, this is besides the fact that Suddam, by taking Kuwait, would become too powerful come oil production wise. From here add in whatever oil conspiracy theory you wish why the USA, under Bush snr, got involved in order to liberate Kuwait