If Britain could see a way to deal with Japan in 1902, Russia can do it in the 1890s. Russia, like Britain and its concern over Germany, just needs suitable motivation to push for the Japan deal.
What exactly was the Russian concern over Germany? British diplomacy had its problems during the period, but from what I can understand, British diplomacy was positively professional compared to their self-serving Russian counterparts.
Many of us recognize it would have been in Russian interests to continue to avoid foreign entanglements well beyond the 1890s and with the benefit of hindsight, an alliance or understanding with Japan (and/or the Ottomans) would help facilitate this. However, the act of aligning with non-European powers would have scarcely been contemplated and would certainly antagonize many of those powers Russia traditionally considered relevant. Imperial Russia aligning itself with Imperial Japan would be a far bolder diplomatic move than the OTL creep to war.
For starters, we need a POD that creates a closer understanding between Russia and Japan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Rosen apparently tried to avoid the war and negotiated treaties with Japan in the 1890s.
If Russian decision makers had understood realities and prioritized the interests of the Russian state, then an understanding with Japan would have been a logical conclusion. In my opinion, there is not a lot on a Japanese wish list, which would not also be in the best interests of Imperial Russia.
- Japanese control of greater Korea - Imperial Russia does not need to contend with vast numbers of backward minorities (a not entirely racist assessment of the population at the time). The population of Manchuria was sparse when compared to Korea(s).
- Limited Russian naval presence in Asia - Imperial Russian colonial interests were generally contiguous and it does not have interests in Asia that require the permanent basing of capital ships. A moderate force of modern cruisers and lighter craft would be perfectly adequate to fly the flag.
- Not necessarily maximizing Russian territory in Asia - Imperial Russia was already heavily dependent on locals and Chinese to manage their existing Asian holdings.
While mindful of their limitations, I am sympathetic to the Russian efforts in obtaining/ maintaining warm water parts south-west of the Korean peninsular - at a minimum, it eliminates a potential contiguous land connection the Japanese may use to continue to nibble at China.
). Nicky’s early death obviously could be beneficial and not only to Russia.