Brilliantlight
Banned
What would have happened if one of the border incidents between Japan and Russia turned into a full fledged war? Let's assume the Russians attack with 40 divisions.
Valamyr said:I had the impression that the last one had about that many divisions involved. The only thing is that the soviets stopped at what they claimed the border was, instead of steamrolling Mandchuria.
Perhaps a good Pod would be to have them keep going, or try.
GBW said:The Soviets attack with 40 divisions in the late 30s? I'm assuming you mean in 1939, perhaps as an expansion of the Nomonhan Incident? Those 40 divisions would smash the Japanese Kwantung Army in Manchuria and would likely push them out of Manchuria, Korea and China before the war was over. The IJN would be able to stop them from doing anything further and would assist in taking northern Sakhalin Island and the Komandorski Islands. The Militarists from the Army, and their influence in the government, would be thoroughly discredited while the Navy would gain a measure of respect from their small victories and from keeping the Red Threat from invading the Home Islands and Formosa. If this war takes place after Yamamoto becomes Commander-in-Chief of the IJN, he may gain the influence and bring some sanity to the Japanese government by preventing any possible moves towards attacks against European colonies or the United States.
You would have to have some sort of difference in Europe for Stalin to be willing to pursue a war in the Far East, though. Germany's various demands and annexations leading up to the invasion of Poland kept Stalin's attention towards eastern Europe. Maybe an earlier Nomonhan-type battle, perhaps a bigger battle in 1938 when the first division-sized battle took place, which proves to the Soviets that they have a decisive advantage over the Japanese. Then when the Germans negotiate the non-aggression pact, which took place as Nomonhan was occuring in OTL, perhaps Stalin would have it revised so that while Germany fights Poland and perhaps Britain and France, hoping it would bog down into WWI warfare, he would tranfer Soviet forces to the Far East to invade Manchuria in September 1939.
Cockroach said:Ok the Russians have more troops but the Japs have a suicidal determination.
Likely result: Japs rapidly pushed back in open country but hold on to the bitter end in rougher terrain and in towns; Japanese forces ultimatly driven back to the coast and either evacuated or exterminated.
However at this stage the Japs have an infinitly better fleet and an airforce at least equal to the Soviet forces so there is no way that Japan itself can be threaterned.