Russian Intervention in the 2004 Orange Revolution?

[Ski]

Say in November 2004 during the Orange revolution in Ukraine would a more aggressive Russian foreign policy allow military intervention to support Viktor Yanukovych (who wanted a Ukraine geared towards Moscow not the west)? If so how would the rest of the world react? For example would Belarus be reabsorbed by Russia? Would the EU intervene since Poland and Baltic states (which would've only joined earlier the same year) would feel threatened? What the results be of a war be and would the Ukrainian army resist or support Yanukovych? Also what the world of 2009/10 be like as a result of Russian and possible EU intervention?

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

This is interesting, but I think it is a little unfeasible. For one, this would be a major war, since Ukraine has a fairly large standing army. Secondly, such a blatantly unjust intervention into Ukraine would cause the Ukrainian people to turn completely against Moscow, and most of the West to turn against Russia. However, Russia could still probably pull it off, since the USA would be unwilling to get involved due to Iraq and the War on Terrorism. Nevertheless, the two above points make me wonder why the Russians would do it in the first place?

 

[Damu]

However, Russia could still probably pull it off, since the USA would be unwilling to get involved due to Iraq and the War on Terrorism. Nevertheless, the two above points make me wonder why the Russians would do it in the first place?

Does it really matter if the US gets involved? If the EU (or NATO minus the US) would get involved then the Russians would be easily defeated. The military expenditure of all the EU states combined is about 10 times bigger than Russia's, their military forces are also more advanced technologically as well as more numerous. That being said... i too consider this whole scenario unlikely.

 

[Ski]

However, consider the fact that many Eastern European states only recently joined the EU in this timeline. Would the 'Big 3' of Britain, France and Germany really want to intervene on Poland's 'orders'. Nevertheless, I think the EU would intervene but wouldn't commit all its army. Furthermore, with the EU joint active armies in 2004-5 barely 400000 troops more than Russia's, Moscow could've some success before large scale Western European intervention. Perhaps? Since you think Russia would get bogged down by Ukraine what do you think the result of an EU-Russian or an exclusively Eastern European or just Ukrainian-Russian war be?

 

[Berra]

There where rumors about a Spetnaz unit in a safehouse ready to step in. I assume they would have done "crowd control", (ie struck down peaceful protestors). In that case, they would be dressed as Ukraininan forcess and nobody would have known. Ukrain would be looked down for killing inocent protestors and ironicly enough, driven them into the Russian sphere.