IOTL, Russia had Fort Ross in central California in the beginning of the 19th century. Is there any way to get the Ruskies to California earlier than OTL and farther down south? I know they were only interested in furs, which is a problem.
IOTL, Russia had Fort Ross in central California in the beginning of the 19th century. Is there any way to get the Ruskies to California earlier than OTL and farther down south? I know they were only interested in furs, which is a problem.
Hmm, if you can get an expedition to California and have that expedition discover gold perhaps that could help?
IOTL, Russia had Fort Ross in central California in the beginning of the 19th century. Is there any way to get the Ruskies to California earlier than OTL and farther down south? I know they were only interested in furs, which is a problem.
If they find gold then the Americans come
What if they get there before America was interested, or even before America was a nation? Though, granted, the Spanish or Mexicans (depending on POD) are bound to be an issue
7 Years War French victory. The Russians don't withdraw and destroy Prussia and Hanover leading to a different peace treaty. France still loses a lot of their empire, maybe they give Canada up keep India, and give Louisianna to Spain. Then the Russians get Central and northern Calfiornia from Spain as a reward. I don't know I just spitballing
India and Afghanistan, right?
I'm guessing Russian Alaska.
I don't think you can get that initial surge of Russian farmers. There is simply too much good land (Not as good, but it's a heck of a lot closer) for any Russian peasant to settle in Siberia and Ukraine. There also isn't going to be a market for grain back in Siberia, because it's mostly small farmers who are producing their own grain as well. In addition grain is bulky and not super profitable. You don't get people building up naval infrastructure from scratch and trade fleets to transport it. Grain trade emerges where there is already very heavy and well established trade.However getting enlarged Alaska that contains most OTL British Columbia, Washington and Oregon is much more manageable. There were several factors why Alaska was not properly colonized by Russia namely great distance from Russia proper, the fact that Alaska depended on imported grain and lack of commercial value besides seal fur. While the first factor cannot be removed I believe that the second and third one can be omitted with capable enough leadership. There are several valuable enough resources in the region that can be exploited by Russia and simultaneously not valuable enough to make USA or Britain want to risk war for them(and that actually means that discovery of Alaskan gold before Alaska has at least 50 thousand Russians or assimilated natives should be avoided; if not the colony would be overrun by American gold diggers).
The first such resource is fertile lands around OTL Vancouver. It is unclaimed land even in late XVIII century. Simultaneously Russian Eastern Siberian colonies that provide Russia with fur, silver, gold and other resources and that have by late XVIII century have a population of 100000 men are in desperate need of food supply(imagine that most grain comes from Western Siberia or even European part of Russia). Providing food from the West Cost by sea is much faster and cheaper. So POD in late XVIII century making the head of Russian-American Company influenced by shrewd enough merchant can be enough impetus for Russia to establish an agricultural colony of a several hundred men on the lower Fraser or lower Columbia. A few ships that are able to transport the grain to Okhotsk and Kamchatka is all that is necessary to make the colony profitable. Moreover when not transporting grain these ships can transport fur and seal fur to Japan or China. While the volume of such trade is minimal comparing to land fur trade through Kyakhta it will allow the bosses of Russian-American Company make extra profits. If Russia manages to create several outposts by XIX century and have a few thousand settlers British would have no good place for a foothold beyond Rockies. While certainly British can take anything they want by force the land is not valuable enough (and to damn far) to alienate one of the main allies against Napoleon. So with enough luck(which is however not ASB in my opinion) by the end of Napoleon Wars Russia can have a small but rather firm colony in OTL British Columbia and Washington.
Taking California as an “award” for performance in Napoleon Wars however will make Russian colonies only weaker. California has Spanish-speaking population that while not large itself is certainly bigger than any Russian speaking population that can be in Northern America by XIX century. Moreover while USA can probably give up Oregon with enough effort by Russian diplomacy USA annexing California cannot be avoided especially with inevitable Gold Rush. So taking California is probably too large piece for Russian bite. However if by the time of Californian Gold Rush there would be Russian colony in Oregon the food supply of gold diggers would be very profitable.
If Russian colony remains it will definitely have some shipbuilding or at least ship repairing facilities by second quarter of XIX century because the main source of the colony’s profit is shipping grain to the Eastern Siberia(and probably shipping some amounts of fur and seals to China or Japan). So when the population of colony will become big enough to allow the colony be more diversified the second important local resource namely whales can come into the play. While whaling will become less profitable in a few decades it will allow the colony have substantial enough fleet and will attract some settlers.
So by middle XIX century it is possible to have 50000-100000 Russian speaking population in Western Northern America. The natural borders of the colony are Rocky Mountains in the East some natural border in the Northeast – Mackenzie Mountains, Mackenzie River or some other point to the East - and some natural border between OTL Portland and the border of the California State.
If the colony will not be conquered by British in TTL Crimean War(which probably would not be butterflied because before middle XIX century the changes in the region would have very limited influence on the course of history elsewhere). While holding of inevitable British offense is not sure it is entirely possible (the siege of Petropavlovsk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Petropavlovsk in OTL was won by Russians in similar conditions).
If Klondike Gold Rush will happen not before the last quarter of XIX century the Russian colony will have enough population to not be overrun by the gold diggers. While the colony will definitely have English speaking minority as well as some other the Russian language will remain the language of majority. By that time butterflies form such enlarged Alaska will definitely change the history of Russia and other world so further predicting without TL is impossible.
While this scenario definitely requires some luck for the colony it is in my opinion not within the realm of plausibility and can be achieved with rather late and minor POD with limited impact on other world before middle XIX century.
Here is a detailed TL of such an Alaska (http://samlib.ru/g/grinshtejn_b_w/ ). The TL is long and rather well written. However it has to flaws – it is abandoned when the TL reached 1860s and it is written in Russian.