Russia Resurgent - A TL
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
Yeah, that's the best course of action for them at that stage. Too fast......economic disaster. Too slow........economic disaster. Middle ground, no economic disaster. Simple logic really, and in economic terms, the mixed economic system seems to be one of the best and most successful out there.
So far so good, but NATO's expansion is going to become a flashpoint for Russia. That said, Russia using populism to secure its spheres of interest ala that referendum in Belarus is a major hurdle for the west. Especially if Russia's economy continues to improve, acknowledges the Soviet crimes in the Ukraine (with modern Russian Communists potentially saving face by using Stalin as a scapegoat the way Krushchev did), and other measures that allow Russia to reintegrate the Ukraine. Those are the minimum goals of any Russian nationalist, whether moderate or hard: Great Russia (Russia proper), White Russia (Belarus), and Little Russia (Ukraine) as one nation.
Integrating Ukraine.......is frankly not going to happen. The vast majority of Ukrainians don't want that, unlike Belarusians; where even today the reunification movement is really strong. However that doesn't mean that Ukraine will not diverge from OTL.
And yes though, NATO's eastward expansion will be a topic of much more tensions ITTL than OTL because of the border with Poland.
For Russia and other Soviet successor states, there is plenty of room for reconciliation.
1. Acquisition of Donbass region through diplomacy in any time up to the early 2000s.
2. Friendship Treaties with the successor states. Although this will not mean anything in realpolitik, it can be seen as a good gesture.
3. CIS to take more of a EU like approach if possible. Kazakhstan is readily integratable/alliable. Treaties to access warm water ports in the baltic, with reduced customs would be extremely helpful for the russian economy.
Other internal things that could help Russia in the long run:
1. Anti-monopoly rules strictly enforced. Public-Private partnerships to be maintained in a way that Russia doesn't have a collapsed economy like OTL.
2. Strengthening independent non-profit govt. funded agencies to monitor election, public service sector and to oversee the privatization.
1. Acquisition of Donbass region through diplomacy in any time up to the early 2000s.
2. Friendship Treaties with the successor states. Although this will not mean anything in realpolitik, it can be seen as a good gesture.
3. CIS to take more of a EU like approach if possible. Kazakhstan is readily integratable/alliable. Treaties to access warm water ports in the baltic, with reduced customs would be extremely helpful for the russian economy.
Other internal things that could help Russia in the long run:
1. Anti-monopoly rules strictly enforced. Public-Private partnerships to be maintained in a way that Russia doesn't have a collapsed economy like OTL.
2. Strengthening independent non-profit govt. funded agencies to monitor election, public service sector and to oversee the privatization.
Some are good points, and will be included ITTL.
Though really, Crimea is more important than Donbass, and if any diplomatic lands exchange was to happen, it would be for Crimea rather than Donbass.
The CIS will be important though.
Very nice start, like others I’m interested in seeing how far Ukrainian-Russian rapprochement will go. Furthermore, what will Russia’s position towards Central Asia be? Kazakhstan seems like a perfect opportunity for another Belarus-style friendly reunification, or at least a close bond. I also wonder how Russian culture will develop with a more liberal, democratic government under Yabloko.
Liberal as in Western level liberal? That's not going to happen. For all the Western medias like to portray, I have met the man (Yavlinsky); and while he certainly is not authoritarian in nature; he was definitely assertive and a 'Russia and Slavs First' man.
Though it will be a whole lot more liberal than OTL.
Does Belarussia keep its UN seat, separate from Russia?
Seriously disagree on the economics stuff, but it's your TL.
For the moment yes, though slowly transitioning the power back into the Russian seat; most probably keeping it till 2000 before becoming defunct.
That's fine. You can PM me for any things you think would be better.
Oh don't worry, I'm well aware that Yavlinsky isn't the saint and saviour of Russia that some people seem to portray him as. But as you said, he's a lot more liberal than... some others
With the Russians being so friendly to the Asian states and investment in the Far East I see many states turning toward Russia for raw materials and future investment.
Yeah, though the friendliness is more of a farce to get more economic incentives, economic relations will be more deeper; especially for the Russian nigh inexhaustible natural resources.
I think the problems are so big that it might be a very depressing timeline.
Some things you might want to consider anyway:
Land - private ownership of land was a very difficult issue in Russia
Legal system - foreign investors have found the Russian legal system to be unique
Tax system - arcane doesn't cover it. Some taxes on turnover resulted in rates >100% of profits; and tax auditors were feared
Inflation - in 1996 it was still c40%+ which is technically hyperinflation
Relationship between crisis and reform - Russian government tended to listen to external advisers when things were bad; when things were going well "who needs foreigners"
Reform vs clean sheet - much easier to start up a system from scratch eg GKO market, than reform an existing one eg bank payment system
Foreign investor confidence - a fickle thing, happy to invest even without real economic reform, but liable to run for the exits
Role of foreign private investors vs international agencies eg World Bank, EBRD
Change management - large Russian organisations are huge, and so structural change is difficult simply because of size
Central planning legacy - historically organisations had more problems getting supplies than "selling", so shortage of marketing staff
Economic statistics - government forms and records were based on needs of centrally planned economy, so getting real economic information was challenging
Kompromat/bribes - a way of life, especially for the traffic police
The oil (and commodity) price