Hello everyone! I'm working on a timeline of a Central Powers Victory, although the pod is at Verdun, the war would end in 1918. I won't touch on the details of the war for now though. I would like to know what your expectations of Russia are in this type of scenario. Bolsheviks win? Do whites win? How long will Russia resurface?
Russia in a CP Victory
- Thread starter Sturm1820
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I doubt it. Germany's lost millions of men and has large enough commitments just maintaining (establishing more like) their network of eastern client states. As much as they may like to, the hard reality is that Germany needs to cool it and let its people and economy recover before it so much as looks east.
There may be material aid to some anti-Bolshevik forces (not the mainline Whites though as they intended to resume the war) and maybe a limited intervention akin to their intervention in the Finnish Civil War (which was basically just one division) but the net aid to anti-Bolshevik forces is likely to be much smaller than what the Entente attempted iOTL.
Warsaw Pact in reverse - Poland, Galicia–Volhynia and Ukraine all get broken off and turned into German puppets.
It depends what exactly would happen in Russia. If things are going roughly same way as in OTL until German victory, it then depends how the civil war ends. Probably Reds still win RCW. Germans hardly are able to turn direction of the war since they are too exhausted and are still digesting their victories. The civil war anyway might last bit longer so Russia would be even more screwed. And USSR would be in weaker position without Ukraine and Caucasus.
So even in best Russia is not able rise much more than secondary power which hardly can rival with Germany at least alone.
So even in best Russia is not able rise much more than secondary power which hardly can rival with Germany at least alone.
Riain
Banned
Germany occupied Russia with 50 reducing to 25 divisions, and I imagine that Germany could maintain 25 divisions in Russia for years. In the event of a civil war these 25 divisions would be a powerful influence, especially after they were rotated out for better units after the victory in the west.
Without direct German help the reds win; the "whites" were little more than a bunch of incompetent, infighting sycophants.
By the way, with 9/10 of their coal, most of their iron and a large parte of their population gone, Soviet Union/Russia/whatever is fare weaker than OTL.
Most of all TTL Russia would have no strategic depth: St. Petersburg would be days away from the border, Smolensk the same, Moscow maybe a week, Stalingrado less than a month.
If the same annihilation battles of OTL early stages of Barbarossa happen ITTL, then the Germans would be already in Arkangelks'k and Astrakan before the Russians can even start mobilyzing their reserves
By the way, with 9/10 of their coal, most of their iron and a large parte of their population gone, Soviet Union/Russia/whatever is fare weaker than OTL.
Most of all TTL Russia would have no strategic depth: St. Petersburg would be days away from the border, Smolensk the same, Moscow maybe a week, Stalingrado less than a month.
If the same annihilation battles of OTL early stages of Barbarossa happen ITTL, then the Germans would be already in Arkangelks'k and Astrakan before the Russians can even start mobilyzing their reserves
PS il they try to nove their industry to Siberia, then good luck with logistics; also their industrial base would be fare from their population centers
Not that Easy; you would need to demobilize; also those 20 divisions would need to push towards an endless steppe in nightmarish logistic conditions
Yeah, but in a CP victory there would most likely be no Barbarossa
The Germans and A-H (provided the Empire survives intact) would already have everything they needed/wanted via their new puppetized states in the East....
Occupation is not ever very simple thing. You have deal many problems when you are far from home. Supplying troops is not quiet easy. Furthermore many would just want go home. And Germany needs much of troops guard new puppets since there might be bit unrestless population who doen't want to be German vassals.
You are right that Russia has not same resources as in OTL since it hasn't Caucasus nor Ukraine. But cities hardly are much more vulnerable as in OTL. Position of St. Petersburg/Leningrad would be exactly same as in OTL during interwar years. And other cities are still pretty deep in Russia beside Smolensk. And CP victory Germany pretty surely doesn't launch Barbarosssa since Nazis not rise to power. Germany has not any reaosn to attack to Russia if then Russia not attack firstly or is seriously threatening German vassals.
Nah, there is no reason for Germans to oppose the young Soviet Russia (whose leadership signed the Brest-Litovsk).The willingnes of bolshevicks to sign peace with Germans made them natural allies against the mostly pro-Entente whites. So, the most realistic outcome is RSFSR without Belarus, Ukraine, Baltics and Transcaucasian states. Although, RSFSR would almost likely try to destabilize the German client states by supporting local anti-German and anti-capitalist guerillas in future.
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Riain
Banned
It's not that hard, Germany had 100 divisions in 1914 and peaked at 251 during the war, she can easily demobilise millions of men and keep 25 divisions for occupation duties. The Entente did it; the Americans had 20,000 in the Rhineland until 1923, the British 13,000 until 1929 and the French had much larger forces. In addition Constantinople was occupied and Russia was invaded with some 60,000 British troops in 1919.
Germanys troubles in a CP victory tend to be massively overblown.
A) St. Petersburg Is less than 100 km from the Estonian border, which woud be the junoing point for any German northern offensive: Moscow and Stalingrado are all within 400 km from the Belarussian and Ukrainian borders, respectively
B) the Germans have no reason to launch Barbarossa UNLESS the soviets start behaving aggressively, which they surely would, sooner or later
PS forgot to mention that in a CP victory scenario the oil fields in the caucasus would be under German control as well. Say bye bye ti Russia
To my knowledge, the German Empire never committed more than 10,000 men (+/-) to the Caucasus... I think they'd be more interested in a pliant Azeri state and a Georgian state willing to keep the pipeline and rail link open....
The Caucasus is notoriously difficult to control... better to do it indirectly if possible
Yeah, much easier to guarantee the sovereignty of an independent (and very much trade-reliant) Georgia instead of trying to hold it themselves.
Never said they would annex the causacus, Just that they would cintrol it; exactly by the means of pliant vassal statesTo my knowledge, the German Empire never committed more than 10,000 men (+/-) to the Caucasus... I think they'd be more interested in a pliant Azeri state and a Georgian state willing to keep the pipeline and rail link open....
The Caucasus is notoriously difficult to control... better to do it indirectly if possible